BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

This week’s two new poll results have left the Coalition in its strongest position on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate since the May 2014 budget.

This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.

Further:

• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.

• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.

• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,108 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  3. [I couldn’t find the NT Newspoll, maybe I’m looking in the wrong place?]

    Not sure what you’re referring to here. The only time I ever remember Newspoll doing an NT poll was before – from memory – the 2008 election. I did have this to relate a couple of weeks back, courtesy of the NT News, which offers some interesting context for Kezia Purick’s resignation.

    [The Northern Territory News last week reported on a poll conducted internally for the Northern Territory’s bitterly divided Country Liberal Party government, which found it at risk of losing all but one of the 13 seats it still holds in the 25-seat parliament after the recent resignation from the party of Araluen MP Robyn Lambley. The survey of 1154 respondents reportedly had Labor leading 59-41 on two-party preferred, pointing to a swing of 15%, and found many conservative voters of a mind to abandon the CLP in favour of independents. Parliamentary Speaker Kezia Purick was found to be better placed to retain her seat of Goyder if she ran as an independent, while Gerry Wood, the independent member for Nelson, was rated as the territory’s most popular politician with a net approval rating of plus 46%. Robyn Lambley was credited with a net approval rating of plus 10%, whereas Chief Minister Adam Giles and Treasurer David Tollner respectively scored minus 37% and minus 43%. Labor leader Michael Gunner was on plus 13%, and held a 16% lead over Giles as preferred chief minister. The poll also found only 18% of respondents saying the government was doing a good job, 22% saying it deserved to be re-elected, and 54% saying the territory was heading in the wrong direction.]

  9. MTBW@2901

    So, in the midst of the build-up bitterly-fought 2001 election,, when Reith was (deservedly IMO) under fire for hid incredibly poor judgement for giving an open-ended phone card for his own official use to a member of his family, Kevin Rudd rings him up with some words of commiseration?

    Just like he gave cushy jobs to Brendan Nelson and Tim Fischer. And he closed down the investigation into the AWB disaster. And left all the Liberal apparatchiks in their public service sinecures awarded to them by the Howard Government. And, as Foreign Minister, seemed closer to Julie Bishop than to most of his Cabinet colleagues.

    Is there a pattern here?

  10. Look, I’m sorry to bang on about this, but David Miles (Willard Public Affairs) is described as a “strategic thinker, skilful communicator and influential political advocate with more than 15 years working in the Australian political environment”.

    This is someone completely out of touch with the reality of how unemployed and poor are treated. He would 100% support Hockey in saying that if you’re poor, you just need to get a job. I’m angry that these fatcats are influencing the government.

  11. [Peter Reith lost me with that doozy… ]

    His failure to mention Slippers treatment from his tory mates did it for me.

    I blame myself for reading anything written by reith.

  12. [Every member ejected by Bronnie should demand to be placed on probation instead …]

    Yep, make merry hell. 94a? Sit tight and let her know in no uncertain terms that only proper speakers not probationary speakers can use 94a. If she calls for the Serjeant at Arms Labor should simply form a protective circle. Time to play hardball on this one. Make it clear she is utterly illegitimate and that Labor will not be playing ball with the old fraud any more.

    They need to be on the front foot with a motion of no confidence and be ready to plaster the media, especially local media in Coalition electorates making sure that each individual Coalition MP is identified as supporting the misuse of taxpayers money and the fraudulent old bag continuing to bring the Parliament into disrepute.

  14. Ch7 thought they had Bill Shorten claiming travel expenses for a ALP leadershit meeting which Bowan promised “at the time” would not be claimed by anyone.

    Turns out Shorten did have another meeting that was official and he had organised a month before. To bad, they already had the story, and appended that bit of info on the end. Then they had Riley “live” to try and give the piece credibility by wondering if it passed the “sniff test”.

  15. Not sure what you’re referring to here [text] and 54% saying the territory was heading in the wrong direction.

    Oops, I misread the posts and thought there was an NT Newspoll.

  16. But seriously, can anyone remember any time over the last ten years where any issue raised as much disgust, dismay and vitupretive condemnation at and of a politician’s actions?

    Even Thompson and Slipper had some vociverous supporters.

    This time even Newscorps Hacka has gone to ground.

  19. While there are no rules Speakers usually give a warning and then do the deed the second time round.

    There is considerable flexibility about this.

    This is described on Bludger as the Speaker giving yellow and red cards.

  22. Having been chastised over her use of air travel, borne now sticks to surface transport to attend Liberal fundraisers:

  25. How good is Mike Baird.

    Another Lib politician taking political risks to talk openly and honestly about the real situation and what we need to face up to. He did it with electricity privatisation, and he is doing it again with the GST discussion.

    Look and learn ALP, look and learn. That is how you do it if you are in politics because you believe in stuff, not just to advance your personal career.

  26. [Tricot
    Posted Monday, July 20, 2015 at 5:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Without a clue as to how the next Newspoll (Galax?) will look, it would be counter intuitive, given the Bishop stuff, for it to be good news for the conservatives.

    But then, nothing surprises me these days]

    As someone remarked earlier Tricot the BB stuff may have come a bit too late to greatly affect the Newspoll results.

  27. [ Look and learn ALP, look and learn. That is how you do it if you are in politics because you believe in stuff, not just to advance your personal career. ]

    And definitely not just timed to distract voters from the Bishop train crash.

  29. Courageous? It might just be relevant that Mike Baird has 3 years 8 months of a fixed 4 year term before he has to face the electorate. I don’t recall him saying anything about it before this year’s election.

  30. ETS: you have to be kidding. The ALP ran for cover saying it was a “cost of burden issue”

    Super: how is legislating to give workers extra money relevant?

    Negative gearing: Huh?

  32. I reckon Baird will be sitting in Federal parliament by the time of the next State election and good on him……could be our next PM.

  33. Unlike those brave souls who are predicting a good result from Newspoll for Labor I am not so optimistic. However I will be delighted if they are right and I will congratulate them on their prescience.

  34. ML

    [ I reckon Baird will be sitting in Federal parliament by the time of the next State election and good on him……could be our next PM. ]

    Not sure about PM, but I certainly think the Speaker’s chair will be available.

  37. Boerwar

    [ Pattern of Liberals: take from the poor and give to the rich. ]

    But the rich aprreciate wealth so much more! They know how to do it in style – leased jets, helicopter entrances, rented limos!

    What would the poor do with more dosh? No doubt just extend their tedious and unhappy lives.

  38. [ETS, Super, Negative gearing.]

    Bingo. Tories bleat GST like sheep because they know it benefits their big money support and it gives them an excuse to think they can get away with not attending to the rorts and distortions Howard and Costello built into the system that also favoured the moneyed end of town.

    GST is a solution in search of a problem. Ripping money out of state allocations for health and education, whilst spending like drunken sailors on poorly targetted concessions for super, property and private health etc is the Tory’s attempt to create the problem for their chosen solution.

  40. https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/CommSecStateofStates_July2015.pdf
    Order of economies (vs. who has been in govt last 4 years):

    1. NSW (4 years LNP)

    2. Vic (3 years LNP)

    3. NT (3 years LNP)

    4. WA (4 years LNP)
    5. QLD (3 years LNP)


    6. ACT (4 years ALP)

    7. SA (4 years ALP)

    8. Tas (3 years ALP)

    It appears there is a very strong relationship there……the longer you have an LNP government the better your economy

  41. MTBW: my point is the same point I’ve always had about Rudd. That he wasn’t a politician but a careerist who treated his political career as an extension of his public service career: ingratiating himself with anyonr he felt might help him, undermining anyont who stood in his way, etc.

    I am astonished that people like you who actually belong to the ALP can have any time for him: he was definitely not a devotee of the cause. No “true believer” on either side of politics gives an inch to their opponents. Can you imagine Paul Keating or Tony Abbott giving a plum diplomatic posting to a political opponent?

  42. [What would the poor do with more dosh? No doubt just extend their tedious and unhappy lives.]

    Those without a car might buy a “battler’s special” and those already with an old clunker might drive an extra 100km a year for the thrill of it.

  43. The obvious choice for Speaker is Ruddock…..appease those upset by his dumping, give him a lap of honour, get rid of the stench of Bronwyn Bishop’s age of entitlement.

  45. [Unlike those brave souls who are predicting a good result from Newspoll for Labor I am not so optimistic. However I will be delighted if they are right and I will congratulate them on their prescience.]

    Predicting polls is a mugs game and they will often do something that seems counter intuitive simply due to random sampling, but this one will have been taken right in the middle of Bronnie being front and centre in the media. Coming so soon after last week that seemed to be showing Shorten copping a hit thanks to the TURC any movement away from the government will be put right at Bishop’s feet (and probably not without justification).

    It may be that the result is purely random, but that won’t be the narrative. A move to Labor after the smear merchants were so convinced they had Shorten in their trap will pile massive pressure on Abbott to cut her loose. Same-same or tightening will have Abbott on the front foot and will take a massive amount of pressure off Bishop.

    Being a mug I will put my neck out and call for a clear Bishop bonus to Labor (54+) and Shorten’s netsats to bounce back with a larger PPM lead. This one feels like Sir Phil the Greek. Something even the disengaged can get mightily pissed off about and reinforce all the negative thoughts they have about Abbott.

  46. meher

    We are talking about the Liberal Party and it’s troubles and you want to talk about Rudd etc.

    What is going on with you.

    Who apart from you has been talking about Rudd?

    Spread your wings and get with what is important at this time.

    I suspect you may be a Lib!

  47. Happiness @ 2940 – you’re a foolish simpleton if you believe your own nonsense. By your own logic, the strong economies in all the states from 1996-2008 was thanks to long-term Labor governments. And the weak economies in SA and the ACT couldn’t possibly have anything to do with a Federal Government determined to destroy manufacturing and gut the public service. You need a breath mint to cover-up the BS you’ve just spouted.

  50. [It appears there is a very strong relationship there]

    Yeah. The states that have always been the poorest (SA and Tas) still the poorest)

    The territory with the greatest reliance on Federal public sector spending (ACT) dragged down by cuts to Federal public servant numbers.

    The two states with the most diversified economies and the most attractive real estate to foreigners (NSW and Vic) leading the way.

    The states/territories with the heaviest reliance on mining (NT, WA, Qld) falling from setting the pace when the boom was on, but not so far as to fall to Tas/SA levels due to still strong export levels if not prices.

    So yeah a very strong correlation – to the make up of each state’s economy and the easing of the mining boom. Gibber on about correlations to who is in government all you like. Only you and other gibberers are buying it.

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