This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.
Further:
• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.
• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.
• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.
Fulvio Sammut at 2907
Let the vibe decide? Seems as good a method as any at the moment, fingers crossed though I think it may he a tad optimistic.
Happiness @ 2949 – no, you’re manipulating the data to suit your silly political games. This is cold hard data: the unemployment rate in April 2012 was 4.9%. The current unemployment rate is 6%. Which Party was in power federally in 2012?
PMO drop to Ch7 comes a cropper
@jmodoh: Shorten on 7’s report he claimed flights to attend fundraiser. Scheduling official gigs w/ fundraisers not uncommon http://t.co/wWDUoTvBj1
Happiness at 2925
I don’t mind Baird but he’s on a loser with a GST increase. There are too many other options that won’t detrimentally impact upon the poor that should be used before resorting to a regressive tax. Besides, LNP economic credibility is in tatters at the moment & won’t be helped by a TAX INCREASE.
I am going way out on a limb, and predicting a Newspoll tonight.
Yikes! Wow! And Holy-Moly! for good measure.
[I don’t mind Baird but he’s on a loser with a GST increase. There are too many other options that won’t detrimentally impact upon the poor that should be used before resorting to a regressive tax. Besides, LNP economic credibility is in tatters at the moment & won’t be helped by a TAX INCREASE.]
I just wish Labor weren’t locking themselves out of a smaller rise in the GST … so very 1998 of them.
The comments from Baird are actually rather self serving. The Libs are aLL trying to do their donors bidding by focusing on GST rather than anything else for revenue. 🙁
WWP at 2956
There may be room for compromise but it would have to include changes to both negative gearing & superannuation to be considered fair & reasonable.
[JimmyDoyle
….Happiness @ 2949 – no, you’re manipulating the data to suit your silly political games. This is cold hard data: the unemployment rate in April 2012 was 4.9%. The current unemployment rate is 6%. Which Party was in power federally in 2012?]
The ALP said it would be 6.4% didn’t they?
….so 6% is an improvement!
🙂
The lovely Graham Morris just called Mrs Bishop ‘a tough chook’.
[WWP at 2956
There may be room for compromise but it would have to include changes to both negative gearing & superannuation to be considered fair & reasonable.]
I think the changes to both negative gearing and superannuation are more important and much fairer but I think a 2.5% GST increase is the key to credibility and power in the next election.
The other thing about Baird & the GST today is that the optics appear coincidental with an attempt to distract from BB at the moment.
If Baird was serious, he would just tell the Feds to return the $80billion they took out.
[JimmyDoyle
Posted Monday, July 20, 2015 at 7:37 pm | PERMALINK
Happiness @ 2949 – no, you’re manipulating the data to suit your silly political games. ]
Absolute rubbish.
I took the CBA analysis of state economies
I took the length of time over the last 4 years (a political term)
I found that the states/terr. with majority LNP rule are the top 5 economies
I found that the states/terr. with majority ALP rule are the bottom 4 economies
I haven’t adjusted anything. You are asking for manipulation and adjustment of the data as you don’t like how it came out. Go ahead, but you just need to explain what you are doing and why.
Go ahead and analyse yourself.
Apparently the only way the nation can afford to cart Mrs Bishop around is to raise the GST to 15%.
MTBW@2946: I am neither a Liberal or a Laborite. I am socially progressive, pro-science and the environment, and strongly in favour of rational, neo-classical economic policies. I was strongly in tune with Hawke-Keating, a little bit in tune with Howard, strongly our of tune with Crean, Beazley, Rudd and (on the basis of his second Budget reply speech) Shorten, all of whom put forward free lunch economic policies. I was in tune with Latham’s ideas and some of Gillard’s: but they were both lousy politicians.
Where is there a political leader of any stature in this country? Jay Weatherill is ok, Anastacia shows some promise. At the Federal level, I say bring on the Wongster: she’s pro-forestry and she might be a bit more of a socialist than I would like, but she’s uber-brainy and has more class about her than the rest of them put together b
The increase to the GST was always the preferred option of the Libs.
This why they cut $80bill from the forward estimates, abolished the Carbon Price, did away with any Super reforms and refuse to examine negative gearing or means to make multi nationals pay income tax.
[Go ahead and analyse yourself.]
That is NOT analysis you clown it is selective meaningless statistics and only TBA would be stupid enough to fall for your stupid statistics.
Newspoll is 50/50, best result for libs since early last year.
Poll conducted before and just as chopper scandal broke.
[gloryconsequence
Posted Monday, July 20, 2015 at 7:28 pm | PERMALINK
I’m gonna call 50-50 on Newspoll]
That would be about my tip Glory. But this is one time I would be delighted to be wrong.
Folks here don’t like data…..
[The increase to the GST was always the preferred option of the Libs.]
And it always will be, there is so much for Labor to gain on so many fronts with a 2.5% increase.
Anybody watching this?
[@BridgetOFlynn: Leigh’s invited Baird on to deliver an infomercial.
#abc730]
[Folks here don’t like data…..]
The data is a little simplistic but largely unobjectionable it is the ridiculous spin you put on it that is well laughable. But when you do this you are at the troll level I should ignore you.
[Anybody watching this?]
Yes, he is an absolute star….an elder statesman
Boerwar at 2960
[The lovely Graham Morris just called Mrs Bishop ‘a tough chook’.]
Isn’t that what they call an ‘old boiler’…..
Now who’s engaging in political spin?
PoM
IMHO, Mr Morris has a nasty streak.
[….so 6% is an improvement!
:)]
Under this system you made up, it would count as an ALP improvement then.
So Labor are going to drive out Bronwyn Bishop with a no-confidence vote in Parliament according to Fairfax media… with their 55 Votes. I mean who writes this shit, really?
BTW who is paying for Bill and mates travel and accomodation to the Labor Conference? What Government Business are they attending to?
Happiness #2963
Wow, look at that! A correlation between the size of an entire’s states economy, intricate and fragile beings that they are, and whoever happens to be the Premier at the time.
Who da thunk it!
Interesting, Happiness, since you have reached this utterly brilliant conclusion, I have found disturbing data we have to discuss.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/PiratesVsTemp%28en%29.svg
The above graph clearly shows that there is a correlation between an increase global temperature, and the number of Pirates of the World.
Ergo, following your brilliant logic, it shows that in order to stabilize the Earth’s temperature, everybody here must become Pirates.
So join me, me heartie’s! For only by sailing under the Jolly Roger, for we will combat the Great Oven!
[So Labor are going to drive out Bronwyn Bishop with a no-confidence vote in Parliament according to Fairfax media… with their 55 Votes. I mean who writes this shit, really?]
Perhaps they thought there would be 20 or so libs who’d do the right thing and vote to get rid of the worst speaker in Australian history ….
I’m so funny as if the libs have ever done anything for their country except exploit it.
PMO a peddling hard.. Mark Simkin wasn’t expecting to do this crap
[@ABCNews24: Just in: @billshortenmp’s office confirms he spent approx $1,300 of taxpayer money on 2013 fundraiser. Details to come. #auspol]
The obvious question Leigh Sales should have asked Baird, which naturally she didn’t was “why weren’t you publicly advocating a 50$ increase to the GST before the recent NSW state election?”.
Happiness@2940: those stats mean zilch: Tassie and SA have been the two worst economies for decades, regardless of who is in.power. Likewise, NSW and Vic are usually close to the top and WA and Qld fluctuate a bit over time depending on the state of the mining industry.
Governments just aren’t that significant in influencing the economy. Eg, I hate to have to break it to you, but the main reason the economy was generally so good under Howard was the unforeseen rapid growth in Chinese demand for our minerals. The economic reforms pursued by Hawke-Keating-Howard all helped a bit too.
But mostly China.
BW @2921
[
FS
Mrs Bishop is getting overwhelming support amongst posters in ‘The Australian’.
]
They were probably all at the Lib fundraiser at Geelong.
Boerwar,
Morris is that embarrassing rash that will never go away.
Happiness @ 2963 – you are not simply offering data. You are conflating two separate categories of information and saying one has caused the other without any substantive proof. As anyone who knows what they’re talking about (i.e. not you) would tell you, correlation does not equal causation. To prove your hypothesis you need to provide additional evidence that what you say is true. This could include things like GDP growth, employment rates, investment patterns, retail spending etc. But you have offered none of these because you know very well that they’ve all trended downwards because the Abbott Government is wrecking our economy.
You said,
[the longer you have an LNP government the better your economy</em]
This is empirically wrong, given the economy has worsened the longer the Abbott Government has been in power.
50% that is in my post at 2983…
I also still think it’s torture of the English language to talk about “length of time in government” when a) you’re only considering the past 4 years and b) the party isn’t even in government.
[JimmyDoyle
….Happiness @ 2963 – you are not simply offering data. You are conflating two separate categories of information and saying one has caused the other without any substantive proof. As anyone who knows what they’re talking about (i.e. not you) would tell you, correlation does not equal causation.]
I said relationship not causation, so your entire claim is false.
[JimmyDoyle
…..This is empirically wrong, given the economy has worsened the longer the Abbott Government has been in power.]
That is opinion. That is not the same as providing data, although I don’t think you get that.
Here’s one for TBA mull over..
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishops-expensive-love-affair-with-charter-flights-began-nearly-two-decades-ago-20150720-gigbmu.html
Bronwyn Bishop’s love affair with charter flights began nearly two decades ago when she was a junior minister in the Howard government, with the now Speaker amassing a near $140,000 bill over four years.
The $139,196.01 outlay is close to seven times the amount spent by two other then-junior ministers — Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey — on charter flights in the same January 1998 to December 2001 period.
Someone here earlier said that Business doesn’t pay GST.
This is clearly horse radish. I run my own small business and I assure you I pay a large amount of GST per year.
Business does pay GST, especially on Services which has no offset effect from Goods purchased.
And simply saying “well you put the GST on top of profits and it isn’t your problem” sounds good but in this competetive world pretending GST doesn’t affect customer purchases is stupid.
TBA,
The GST is not a tax on business and the ultimate payer is the consumer.
You have just shown what an economic dufus you are.
You do understand you get a credit for all GST paid, whether it be goods or services. You can’t be that stupid.
[“The GST is not a tax on business and the ultimate payer is the consumer.”]
BZZZZT Wrong.
How many businesses have you run in your life? None? Thought So.
Get out of your armchair and go get some real world life experience champ, you know nothing
[mimhoff
…I also still think it’s torture of the English language]
Not sure how to explain this any clearer.
I get the impression you are trying to make it sound complicated as a means of distraction.
There must be dozens of AS boat engagements going on for one to just slip past our mighty Border Force like it reportedly did today!
[“You do understand you get a credit for all GST paid, whether it be goods or services. You can’t be that stupid.”]
So what credit do you get for a service performed?
You really are dumb aren’t you mate?
[You can’t be that stupid.]
You can’t possibly believe that can you Kirky?
So Tony and the boys want to hide their expenses by suspending Bishop, because it’s not what the they want to sell to the public, but they are quiet happy to sell “Labor is a crook”.