It’s been an interesting week in opinion polling on a number of fronts, with the Galaxy-conducted Newspoll series making its debut in The Australian, and big shifts emerging in the first leadership ratings to have emerged in three weeks. What there hasn’t been is any particular movement in headline two-party preferred numbers, although that’s of interest in its own right given misplaced press gallery expectations that things were about to turn in favour of the Coalition. So far as the BludgerTrack aggregate is concerned, Labor’s two-party rating has increased by 0.2% compared with last week’s reading, which is not enough to have made any change on the seat projection, with a Labor gain in Queensland having been cancelled out by a loss in South Australia.
However, the real picture which emerges from the latest results is of disaffection with both major parties. On the primary vote, the Coalition has ticked below 40% for the first time since March (before rounding, at least), while Labor is at its lowest ebb since November 2013, leaving room for the Greens to reach an historic high approaching 14%. Even more remarkable is a joint slump in the standing of both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Their respective net approval ratings have been precisely tracking each other downwards since May, feeding into a startling reversal in the tone of media commentary concerning Abbott’s performance over the past week. The preferred prime minister trend has Shorten recovering a lead he lost at the beginning of May, albeit just barely.
The debut Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, in which the interview-administered phone polling mode of yore makes way for automated phone plus online polling from a bigger sample (1631 on this occasion, compared with around 1150 previously), has produced a satisfyingly conventional result. Compared with BludgerTrack, the poll was about a point high for Labor, a point low for the Greens, and bang on target for the Coalition. This series will not form part of the BludgerTrack voting intention equation until the model has more than one result to work with, although it does feature in the leadership ratings, for which it and Ipsos broke a fairly lengthy drought this week.
I’ve also published the detailed quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, for those wishing to probe primary and two-party vote trends at state level. Crikey subscribers can enjoy my analysis of the results here.
Further on the polling front:
• There were two attitudinal results from the Ipsos poll which I neglected to touch upon earlier. Fully 75% of respondents were in favour of removing citizenship from dual citizens who took part in terrorist activities, with only 21% opposed. However, it should be noted that when Essential Research made a similar finding last month, it also asked a further question which established that most would prefer the determination be made by the courts rather than a minister. The poll also found 85% for support for constitutional recognition of indigenous peoples as the first inhabitants of Australia, up from 77% two years ago.
• The Australia Institute has waded into controversies surrounding the ABC by having ReachTEL conduct polls in the electorates of North Sydney, Wentworth and Sturt, which are respectively held by Joe Hockey, Malcolm Turnbull and Christopher Pyne. Respondents in all three electorates came out strongly against the government’s cuts to the ABC budget, with net approval ratings of minus 27.5% in Sturt, minus 27.6% in North Sydney and minus 18.5% in Wentworth. The poll even found strong majorities in favour of the rather odd proposition that the political independence of the ABC should be enshrined in the constitution. These seemed to have formed questions two and five of a longer questionnaire; Kevin Bonham is unimpressed that the other results have been withheld.
• The Northern Territory News last week reported on a poll conducted internally for the Northern Territory’s bitterly divided Country Liberal Party government, which found it at risk of losing all but one of the 13 seats it still holds in the 25-seat parliament after the recent resignation from the party of Araluen MP Robyn Lambley. The survey of 1154 respondents reportedly had Labor leading 59-41 on two-party preferred, pointing to a swing of 15%, and found many conservative voters of a mind to abandon the CLP in favour of independents. Parliamentary Speaker Kezia Purick was found to be better placed to retain her seat of Goyder if she ran as an independent, while Gerry Wood, the independent member for Nelson, was rated as the territory’s most popular politician with a net approval rating of plus 46%. Robyn Lambley was credited with a net approval rating of plus 10%, whereas Chief Minister Adam Giles and Treasurer David Tollner respectively scored minus 37% and minus 43%. Labor leader Michael Gunner was on plus 13%, and held a 16% lead over Giles as preferred chief minister. The poll also found only 18% of respondents saying the government was doing a good job, 22% saying it deserved to be re-elected, and 54% saying the territory was heading in the wrong direction.
Preselection news:
• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane is Pat O’Neill, a 34-year-old serving army major and veteran of two tours in Iraq, who if elected will become the first openly gay member of the House of Representatives. O’Neil won preselection ahead of Clayfield solicitor Philip Anthony. Brisbane is held for the Liberal National Party by Teresa Gambaro, who won the seat from Labor’s Arch Bevis in 2010. Gambaro is set to face a preselection challenge from National Retailers Association chief executive Trevor Evans, having put noses out of joint with her frequent criticism of Tony Abbott.
• A preselection held the weekend before last confirmed Sophie Mirabella as the Liberal candidate for Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. Rob Harris of the Herald-Sun reports that Mirabella prevailed in the preselection ballot over Wodonga businessman Kevin Ekendahl by 126 votes to 66. Mirabella will also have to contend at the election with a yet-to-be-chosen candidate from the Nationals, with the Border Mail reporting local party members Marty Corboy and Bernard Gaffney are expected to nominate. There has apparently been talk in the party of the seat being contested by Steph Ryan, who won the new seat of Euroa at the November state election, although it seems she is understandably not interested.
Promotion:
• Last week I had a paywalled article on Crikey on the terrible year that opinion polling has had internationally, having progressively dropped the ball in Israel, Britain, Poland and Denmark. Since then, there has been a new entry on the list with the referendum in Greece, at which pollsters heavily underestimated the “no” vote – although in this case, Nate Silver is more sympathetic.
• Also by me in Crikey recently for subscribers only: a look at the wild inconsistency in this week’s poll results for the Greens, and the obstacles facing Tony Abbott with respect to the timing of the next election.
@ briefly, 3099
It’s more than that – a country that issues its own currency can ALWAYS recapitalise its own banks for domestic purposes. That’s the power of the monetary policy lever, something taken away from Euro governments by the common currency and placed in the hands of unelected bankers.
I cannot stand Greg Hunt.
Now, the others, his colleagues are boof heads, never believed in AGW, are anti-science and believe we have no responsibility for the environment.
Hunt on the other hand had written a thesis on an ETS and talked of the growing dangers of climate change.
I consider Hunt worse than his colleagues because he has traded in everything he believes for a political pension.
SYRIZA has realised… something some here are having troubles coming to grips with… that they need a multibillion dollar injection of cash in their country JUST to keep running.
All the toughman talk here.. give the EU the finger… go on their own, it’s like an alternative reality circle jerk. I mean the banks can’t open because there isn’t any money. Nobody is going to loan or invest into Greece because their traitorous Socialist Government doesn’t pay their bills.
It’s sort of like if you defaulted on your mortgage and then demanded the Bank give you a credit card with a $50,000 limit, they are going to laugh in your face.
And to think they destroyed their economy just because they didn’t want to pay their $1.8 Bill interest payment 2 weeks ago.
If there is one guarantee I can make no matter how things turn out, the socialists here who support Greeks economic implosion won’t invest 1 cent of their own money in helping them out. I mean they can’t even give away Greek Bonds at the moment, they are worthless.
[“The solvency of the Greek State and banking system could be restored by the Greek central bank if it were able to issue credits denominated in drachma. The Zimbabwean example is not relevant. “]
Of course it’s relevant, Greeces Drachma will suffer hyperinflation and be worthless. Have you done no research on countries printing their own money who are debt ridden?
dtt
[You absolutely trash Rudd at EVERY opportunity.]
Actually, no. Yesterday, for example, I listed a number of things I gave him full credit for.
[You are generally ruder about Rudd than Abbott]
Yes, because without Rudd we wouldn’t have Abbott. We’d still have a very nice Gillard government, along with a heap of other good things such as carbon pricing, Gonski, a proper NBN, the NDIS….
[If that is not being a Rudd hater then I would hate to think what Rudd hating means to you. Probably need to lock you up.]
Rudd hating means not giving the man credit for anything.
[But hey how about you and others stop denigrating Rudd at every opportunity and people like me will happily never discuss the topic again.]
Yeah, right.
For the record, I didn’t denigrate Rudd today. I simply said I didn’t know anyone who hated him. That’s not denigration.
[If you are NOT a Rudd hater I challenge you to say three nice things about him. ]
Easy; the same three nice things I said about him yesterday – the NBN, the Apology to the Stolen Generation, and the GFC package. I’ll throw in having the determination to win Griffith after losing it the first time around.
Now, your turn. Three things you don’t like about Rudd, just to show that you don’t blindly adore him.
Hey, I’ll be generous – three things you liked about Gillard, just to show you’re not a blind Gillard hater.
[3103
TrueBlueAussie
SYRIZA has realised… something some here are having troubles coming to grips with… that they need a multibillion dollar injection of cash in their country JUST to keep running.]
The Greek central bank can create credits that can be drawn by the Government of Greece….drachma credits. They can create similar credits in favour of Greek banks as well. The Australian Reserve Bank can do the same here. The Bank of England has been doing this for the UK Government most of the time for the last 7 years.
There is no need for intrinsic need for Greek insolvency.
@TBA/3096
Goverment is loaning money each week, perhaps it’s time to stop bashing other countries?
[“It’s more than that – a country that issues its own currency can ALWAYS recapitalise its own banks for domestic purposes.”]
How will they pay for foreign goods?
Whats a Drachma worth from a country that doesn’t pay it’s bills and has the printers working overtime?
[dave
Posted Monday, July 13, 2015 at 2:59 pm | Permalink
BW – Lets hope the Indonesians don’t pursue nuclear reactors on Java – or worse.]
The best option would probably be for Australia to make ten thousand square kilometres of the NT available for Indonesias to do solar eleccy which is then piped across the Timor Sea.
But I can’t see Abbott even thinking of it, much less doing it.
[ Hunt on the other hand had written a thesis on an ETS and talked of the growing dangers of climate change. ]
The name of his thesis was – ‘Make the Polluters Pay’ since modified to Pay them to Pollute.
[ Dee
Posted Monday, July 13, 2015 at 3:02 pm | Permalink
I cannot stand Greg Hunt.
Now, the others, his colleagues are boof heads, never believed in AGW, are anti-science and believe we have no responsibility for the environment.
Hunt on the other hand had written a thesis on an ETS and talked of the growing dangers of climate change.
I consider Hunt worse than his colleagues because he has traded in everything he believes for a political pension.
]
…. A letter to The Age :
Environment Minister Greg Hunt is making a fool of himself (”Hunt got his facts from Wikipedia”, 25/10). Were it not for his 1990 honours thesis, and the fact that he is making a fool of us all on the world stage, I might feel sorry for him. Having to seek approval from the Prime Minister’s office before he opens his mouth is bad enough. But to have to sit figuratively on Mr Abbott’s knee while his boss works the mouth controls must really hurt, and I wonder if self-respect and insurrection might eventually kick in.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-letters/behaving-like-a-fool-20131025-2w7aj.html#ixzz3fkG1zleY
[ But I can’t see Abbott even thinking of it, much less doing it. ]
particularly when its still no talkies.
The cattle idea has since sunk as well. Not that Australian cattlemen were ever going to be happy with that.
[3104
TrueBlueAussie
“The solvency of the Greek State and banking system could be restored by the Greek central bank if it were able to issue credits denominated in drachma. The Zimbabwean example is not relevant. ”
Of course it’s relevant, Greece’s Drachma will suffer hyperinflation and be worthless.]
Why?
Inflation represents flight from currency into other values. There is no intrinsic reason why Greece would flee the drachma. At the moment they are experiencing the reverse – flight into Euro and deflation – depression and insolvency – have resulted. Greeks are doing this because Euro are essentially unobtainable now. Those who can hoard Euro will do so.
This argument has been had again and again in the past. The same objection – hyperinflation – was raised before Britain, France and the US abandoned the Gold Standard in the 1930s. These claims were all baseless. Monetary re-ordering enabled these economies to escape depression. Greece can do the same.
[3108
TrueBlueAussie
How will they pay for foreign goods?]
Greece earns foreign exchange. If it also experienced a real foreign exchange rate depreciation, it would earn more than enough foreign currency to meet its import bills, run a domestic surplus and grow its economy. It could service its debts and expand its living standards at the same time.
How come people are starting to mention Zimbabwe in the same breath as Greece?
[“Why?
Inflation represents flight from currency into other values.”]
No… it represents the belief in the worth and value of a currency.
If people believe the piece of paper they hold is worthless, then you have inflation until it reaches it’s perceived value.
Not only do you have the domestic belief of the value of their paper, you also have in this globalised world international belief in the worth of the paper.
If I was selling goods to Greece I may not want to be paid in Drachma because I may think their economy is a basketcase… so I want to be paid in Euros. That means they have to exchange their currency with currency traders, who like me, think the Drachma is worthless. So now you have a Greek businessman paying excess Drachmas to purchase Euros to pay me, what has happened to the value of his goods in Drachmas? Well they’ve increased. Hence hyper inflation… hence the Drachma idea is stupid.
CTar1@3059
Yep, absolutely no value in winning an election and steering the nation through the GFC.
I did once flat with a person who subsequently became the long-term Zimbabwean Treasurer under the good Doctor.
I must have been a bad influence.
Briefly
I am quite serious as a question because I have not researched the topic
What actual benefit does Greece get from Nato. Protection against Turkey perhaps but otherwise?
They have to buy armaments they cannot afford. They do not seem to have had any productivity boost since joining and remain the poorest nation in Europe.
Has membership of the Western bloc actually FAILED Greece?
Turkey seems to have faired better from being part of Nato.
Phoenix
Thanks! 😆
BW
So the PII(G)S support Greece as they can see themselves also putting up their hand for “debt relief”/”loan restructuring”/ ie defaulting on their loans, ie free money.
@ BW
Really good for the NT economy too – and relations with Indonesia, without having to dig up a single gram of uranium. Trifecta of things Abbott hates.
WeWantPaul@3040
Voting other than blind – really knowing what all the Senate candidates stand for and what order you should put them in to best reflect their views – involves many hours of research. There are people who would like to cast an informed vote but simply do not have that sort of time. And even then, you don’t get to the point of knowing the tactical impact your vote could unintentionally have.
The future of the Drachma:
Zoomster
I was not happy with Rudd over Libya
I thought he did not handle the 2013 campaign well
He did not handle the PR surrounding pink batts and the ETS in Feb 2010 very well
He is a god botherer
Now you find three things you did not like about Gillard
Here are three I like
Excellent negotiator
Excellent parliamentary performer
Set up the RC on Child abuse
Also I liked MySchool very much
[Diogenes
Posted Monday, July 13, 2015 at 3:24 pm | Permalink
BW
So the PII(G)S support Greece as they can see themselves also putting up their hand for “debt relief”/”loan restructuring”/ ie defaulting on their loans, ie free money.]
Different groups there do have that notion. But the countries involved have already done much economic reform so their positions are improving. Government bond rates are a useful proxy for seeing how all that is travelling.
Which reminds me – is the Greek Government still issuing bonds?
The rates would be fairly attractive!
Ah, dtt – ready to meet my challenge yet?
[Voting other than blind – really knowing what all the Senate candidates stand for and what order you should put them in to best reflect their views – involves many hours of research. There are people who would like to cast an informed vote but simply do not have that sort of time. And even then, you don’t get to the point of knowing the tactical impact your vote could unintentionally have.]
It might result in many hours of research and if that is what you need that is what you should do. If you need to know each candidate in detail then the only way to shortcut that is to reduce the number of candidates. But there are many shortcuts people use to circumvent the process. For example you can trust the parties candidates to more or less stick to their party line. I don’t do this,
I don’t recommend it, but if you wish to save an hour or two reading the history of cormann you can!
[3116
TrueBlueAussie
“Why?
Inflation represents flight from currency into other values.”
No… it represents the belief in the worth and value of a currency.
If people believe the piece of paper they hold is worthless, then you have inflation until it reaches it’s perceived value.
Not only do you have the domestic belief of the value of their paper, you also have in this globalised world international belief in the worth of the paper.
If I was selling goods to Greece I may not want to be paid in Drachma because I may think their economy is a basketcase… so I want to be paid in Euros.]
Greece earns foreign currency. They have a modest external surplus. That is, their export receipts exceed their import commitments. This would likely only improve after depreciation.
Greece’s problem is not in its current accounts. It is in its capital account. It is exporting capital to other domains. The liquidity has been drained away, resulting in depression. This is completely unnecessary. If Greece’s depreciation were external rather than internal, it would be able to return to full employment, grow its output, rebuild investment, expand its savings, achieve fiscal balance and service its external liabilities. This is utterly unproblematic.
Here’s the real challenge
Say three nice things about Abbott!
1. He’s fit and active and healthy
2. Volunteers for charities/fire fighting
3. I’m stuck now
He lies to himself first.
Sorry, dtt – cross posted.
Gillard – education reforms based on New York model (seriously, what has the US to teach us about education? We cream them on every criteria). Her judgement (especially when it came to men – I was dubious about that long before she was even Deputy Leader, knew too much of her history…) – and that one’s a biggie, because it covers a whole lot of things — her approval of clerics in schools, and her reluctance to challenge spending on private health and education.
None of these should be new – I’ve criticised her for these before.
Right – so now you can see I’m neither a Rudd hater or a Gillard cultist. What I am is someone who has had access to certain information, which is supported by other evidence, and as a result tries to correct some misapprehensions here.
[The best option would probably be for Australia to make ten thousand square kilometres of the NT available for Indonesias to do solar eleccy which is then piped across the Timor Sea.]
That’s getting pretty close to feasible.
Distance to Timor from north WA or west NT is about 700km. a few island hops and your onto Java, then Sumatra, then Singapore and Malaysia. Longer links have been proposed, such as Iceland to Scotland or Scotland to Norway.
For reference, the longest marine cable is NorNed, which is 580-kilometres, and cost €600m for a 500MW link (which really is not very much). However the cost of high-power electronics has dropped remarkably since that project was completed.
Diog
Your number 1 can count as three.
Dee @ 3102
I intensely dislike him, too. His favourite sentence “It is very clear” – and then he goes on to twist the truth. Perhaps it’s the Stockholm syndrome – he’s been in thrall to Abbott for long enough (in order to be Minister) that he no longer recognises when he’s lying.
[3119
daretotread
Briefly
I am quite serious as a question because I have not researched the topic
What actual benefit does Greece get from Nato?]
The same thing everyone else gets. Macro-stability in Europe. Mutual support. Peace.
What they should let you do is (if not full electronic voting) provide you with a database where you can look up voting history and relevant history of a candidate, let you fill out a ballot on your computer, digitally sign it, print it out (maybe the normal ballot sheet with the information duplicated in a bar code or something that can be scanned) and let you take it in.
Tony Wright can be a bit too clever to enjoy, but this hits the mark:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-cabinet-and-the-search-for-alternatives-to-alternatives-20150713-giaw7i.html
[3104
TrueBlueAussie
Have you done no research on countries printing their own money who are debt ridden]
Greece is not debt-ridden. Its problem is weak income…and the more its savings are depleted, the lower is its income. Even though it has been reducing its debts, its income has been contracting mush faster. This is the inexorable insolvency that exists within the Euro system.
Greece’s problems can all be very easily solved by reviving growth.
I do not think I could ever fully trust the result of an election with electronic voting. Susceptibility to hacking, etc.
One of the great advantages of ballot papers is hard evidence
Three positive things about Abbott (if you are an LNP supporter):
1. He repeats everything at least twice so even LNP supporters can understand him.
2. He restricts all important announcements to three words or less (STOP THE BOATS!, DITCH THE WITCH!, COAL GOOD!) so that even LNP supporters can repeat the key points.
3. He only tackles one or perhaps two related issues at a time (BOATS!, TERRORISTS!, TERRORISTS ON BOATS!) because LNP supporters can’t cope with more than that.
trand
It’s not electronic voting, it’s computer assisted filling out of forms.
Actually, rather than having to print it out at home, you take it along on your mobile phone or something, or at worst print out the barcode, have it scanned and turned into a printed ballot that you can verify visually at the polling booth.
Zoomster
It is interesting that you comment on Gillard’s taste in men.
I honestly would not have had the courage to mention it so clearly here, but it is a factor and I am glad you posted it.
I seriously feel that if Gillard had been in a long term relationship with a “respectable” professional – lawyer, Dr, architect, teacher, she would have been given an easier ride by the press. As part of a “power couple” generally everyone gets an easier ride.
Margaret and Gough, Hawke and Hazel, Rudd and Therese were examples where the partners were powerful, educated and independent policy thinkers in their OWN right.
I think it helps. Gillard’s series of failed relationships while not a total disaster, certainly did not help her bridge the trust gap in the minds of voters.
Nice guy though he seems, Tim was NOT an asset, sort of a male bimbo, which was unfortunate.
Three positive things about Abbott:
1. He stopped Barnaby going on Q&A.
2. He is stopping Turnbull going on Q&A.
3. The Ministerial ban will supposedly continue until the ABC management do what Abbott requires them to do – something the ABC was thinking of doing anyway but now can’t without looking like Tony’s poodle.
NATO saves Greece from having to fight more losing wars with Turkey.
The Greeks may be busted but their airforce and navies are formidable.
It has around 160 F16s, for example.
Three positive things about Abbott:
1. He is not immortal.
2. He is… ah, um, ah, er…
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/07/acci-slams-tpp/
The TPP is a crock.
$800 million borrowed on Friday:
http://aofm.gov.au/outright-tender/tender-791/
#thisisacoup doing nicely for itself