Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A slight move to the Coalition off a low base in this fortnight’s Roy Morgan poll, and Newspoll state breakdowns that confirm a picture of Coalition improvement being driven by New South Wales.

There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.

Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).

Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.

UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.

There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.

There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,200 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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    [A former head of Treasury has slammed the Abbott government and the Labor opposition for entrenching Australia in a “non-debate” about budget fairness on one hand and ruling out much-needed tax reforms on the other.

    He criticised both sides for taking serious reform proposals off the table for political reasons, and singled out Labor’s recent attempt to reject the Abbott government’s changes to the pension assets test, which passed the Senate with support from the Greens last week, as an example of the poor politics doing Australia harm.]
    On Insiders, Laura Tingle of the AFR confirmed as reported previously, that Bowen, current Shadow Treasurer, and Burke, current Shadow Minister for Finance were rolled on the pension cuts.

    It had also been reported that Leigh, Shadow Assistant Treasurer, also spoke in support of the pension cuts.

    From Leigh’s biography on the ALP’s official web site:

    [A former associate to Justice Michael Kirby, Andrew’s last job before entering parliament in 2010 was as an economics professor at the Australian National University. He was awarded the Young Economist Award, a prize given every two years by the Economics Society of Australia to the best Australian economist under 40.

    Much of Andrew’s economic research has been devoted to the vast challenges of reducing poverty and disadvantage. He believes that rising inequality strains the social fabric and that too much inequality splits our society, leaving people from different backgrounds occupying different suburbs, using different services, and the community losing its sense of shared purpose.]

  2. “@KKeneally: @AlanTudgeMP I agreed with you, on air. Why is it hard to condemn violent, misogynistic language from other Liberals? Or at that rally?”

  3. [WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama this week will propose a plan to extend overtime pay to 5 million American workers who are currently excluded under federal law, according to sources.

    The president will recommend updating overtime rules so that salaried workers who earn less than roughly $50,400 per year would be guaranteed time-and-a-half pay when they work more than 40 hours in a week. Under the current rules implemented by former President George W. Bush, salaried workers must earn less than $23,660 per year in order to be automatically eligible for overtime pay.]

  4. Ryk the people’s poet

    Vyvyan the medical student with SPG (Special Patrol Group) pet hamster and yellow Ford ‘Anglia’

    Mike the cool person

    Neil the hippie

    Plus Jerzel the landlord

    Some quotes:

    Ryk: “Hand’s up who likes me!”

    Mike: “This is a tricky spot and Mike the cool person will squeeze it”

    Neil: “I’ve got some henna dip Mike!”

    Vyv: “Shut up you b**stard!”

  5. [But when compared with the size of its economy, Greece’s initial debt was somewhere west of Pluto.

    For years, it managed to hide its real debt courtesy of a complex financial instrument organised by Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs. That ruse came unstuck when the Global Financial Crisis hit and left the country and the single currency bloc exposed.

    Rather than deal with the crisis in 2010, or the latest flare up in 2012, European Union officials instead perfected the art of obfuscation.

    Greece will never be able to repay its debt. At 178 per cent of GDP, it is simply unsustainable. Austerity has caused the economy to shrink, blowing out the debt even further.

    There are only two choices. Either a good chunk of the debt needs to be written off or Greece needs to leave the European Union.

    Even after all this time, no-one has the stomach for either.]

  6. Qld Premier Campbell Newman was perceived as arrogant & out of touch. He got on the wrong side of just about every strata of society, minorities, public servants, the legal profession, unions & environmentalists & only served his masters, big business & his constituents. He divided Qld into them & us & left Qld in a worse economical state than when he took it over. He decided that bikies were the cause of terror in Qld & legislated laws specifically to deal with this element of terror. Newman derided anyone with an alternative view point, denoting them as un-Australian. Newman gained government in a landslide yet departed after only one term.
    I’m struck by the similarities between Newman & Abbott.

  7. Surely the ‘Freedom Commish’ should be standing up for the freedom of the ABC. Oh, sorry, he was IPA, wasn’t he…

    [ABC staff have received an impassioned email telling them to stand strong in the face of serious criticism from the Australian government, public and media.

    The email sent by ABC staff-elected director Matt Peacock on Monday afternoon follows comments from Prime Minister Tony Abbott that “heads should roll” at the ABC after last week’s controversial Q&A episode.]

  8. This is so true.

    [Perpetrators of domestic violence use threats and violence against family pets as part of their strategy of control over their victims.

    Because of this the RSPCA wants the royal commission into family violence to include animal welfare as a key consideration.

    Last year, Fairfax Media reported that women’s refuges across Victoria were being encouraged to allow clients to bring their animals with them after a study found women were more likely to stay in an abusive relationship if they owned a pet.

    That research published by the Royal New Zealand Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals found men’s jealousy over the bond between their partner and pet could lead to animals being abused or threatened with abuse.]

  9. [108

    Greece will never be able to repay its debt. At 178 per cent of GDP, it is simply unsustainable.]

    Of course, this is not necessarily correct. Debt held in the Australian economy, for example, is much more than 178% of GDP but is still considered to be serviceable. For another example, looking back, the official debt held by the UK at the end of the Napoleonic wars was around 250% of GDP but this was still paid off without systemic insolvency.

    The problem in Greece is the lack of growth – really, the uninterrupted contraction – in its economy combined with the deficit in its external accounts. These forces have destroyed liquidity in the Greek economy. Since it is not possible to restore liquidity within the Euro zone, it will have to be done outside the Euro zone. Greece has no choice in this.

    The current pity is that this choice has not been offered to the Greek people. Rather, they have been offered a fraudulent choice by a profoundly dishonest Government.

  10. So now we know why FOI is so expensive?

    [Internal documents released under freedom of information laws showed bureaucrats were instructed to give purposefully vague responses to requests for information from The Canberra Times.

    Emails showed officials were told not to provide any explanation or identify Mr Abbott’s office or the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet as being responsible for blocking information being released.

    One senior bureaucrat said Mr Abbott’s staff could be concerned about privacy or a poor reaction to the information being made public.

    In March, officials said they had created 980 pages of documents explaining why refurbishment works were behind schedule. Responding to a freedom of information request, Finance sought $67,825 to release the documents.

    A revised request from a 12 month period attracted a $3759 price tag. Nearly 14 hours would be needed to retrieve documents and it would take 176 hours for bureaucrats to decide what could be released.]

  11. The whole QandA thing is backfiring badly on the government,

    Its showing arrogance in trying to shut up what they perceive as their critics. Its keeping discussion of behaviour on the front pages. Specifically its bringing the focus back on comments by Liberal party members and supporters on comments they made like the ditch the witch comments.

    Its putting on full display the nastiness of the LNP and eroding any sympathy when economic bad times come and hard decisions have to be made.

    So yes the LNP base will bark like yapping dogs in support but most voters will not like what they see from the LNP and thats without taking into account the trust the ABC has v that of the LNP.

  12. briefly

    Greece has no choice. However the EU Troika do. Ditch Austerity and Greece can grow.
    Its as I said the creditors have the ball in their court.

  13. victoria

    4C is worth watching for the story about Angela (last name forgotten). Its a story that could be in a movie or novel

  14. [117


    Greece has no choice. However the EU Troika do. Ditch Austerity and Greece can grow.]

    The EU system is predicated on the existence of permanent external surpluses. It is a predatory system, one that favours accumulation by suppressing expansion within the EU arena.

    The system that delivers excess savings in Germany and Luxembourg also generates suppression elsewhere. It is an inherently dysfunctional system and will not last. Eventually it will be dissolved.

    But in the meantime, since the system is not about to be dissolved, Greece has to leave it. Any other proposition is simply deluded.

  15. Is the big blow out in the cost and timing of refurbishing The Lodge due to variations to render the doors and walls punch proof?

  16. BK

    You could be right. They would call it ‘security’.

    Sounds like a complete reconstruction rather than a ‘refurbishment’. I normally wouldn’t begrudge money spent on the PM official residence, but somehow when it’s Abbott…

  17. [117


    However the EU Troika do.]

    The “troika” is divided. The IMF favour debt cancellation – that is, they favour cancellation of debts owed to the EU. Needless to say, lenders from Portugal, Finland, the Baltic States, the low-income East, from stricken Spain, Ireland and Italy are not in favour of debt cancellation. How could they explain to their own voters that the debts owed by Greece should be waived while their own debts may not?

    In any case, the IMF have walked out. They have advanced large sums to Greece on behalf of its members, most of whom are not wealthy States. The IMF is also bound by its rules to collect its loans. If it abandons this, the IMF, the international lender of last resort, will face its own existential questions.

    The IMF should not have bought into the dysfunction of the Euro zone. It cannot collect its debts and it cannot forgive them either. The EU cannot cancel Greek debt even if they wished to. It is a complete shambles.

  18. I think the time has come for Paul Kelly to give the game away and go on to join the Priesthood.

    He was as boring as batshite!

    As for that other Right wing nutjob who had basically nothing to say at all was he being paid for turning up?

    He wouldn’t know anything about Human Rights if it slapped him in the face.

  19. briefly

    The EU Troika is in denial about how Greece came into the union and the loans they gave. The chickens are coming home to roost.

    The EU Troika talks about keeping Greece in the EU. That means they have to accept write downs and reform of the EU system,

    This is going to happen either way. If Greece as I agree looks very likely now is going to Grexit then those EU systems are going to be looked at by Portugal and Italy at least.

    Its a lot of money on write down of Grexit the creditors are going to have to cope with anyway. This takes no account whatsoever for social unrest and political and financial uncertainty in the immediate present and going into the future.

    Of the two choices only the EU has the ability to change the EU system Greece has no power by itself to do this and the ball is therefore in the EU court.

  20. A good comment in the Guardian

    10m ago
    2 3
    The Euro is Germany’s currency masquerading as European money. It serves mostly Germany and some of its closer partners. It allows Germany to “compete” very unfairly with much lesser developed countries like Greece and the Southern rim of Europe as if they had the same educational and cultural systems, technology, science, infrastructure, etc. When David Ricardo, one of the greatest economists ever, established his Theory of International Trade, he chose the examples of England, an industrial cloth manufacturer and Portugal, a rural wine-maker. When trade opened up between the two, wine flowed into England from Portugal and cloth went the other way. Merchants in both countries benefited, even consumers. But England became an industrial power and Portugal a fragile, backwoods economy. To counter Ricardo’s correct (on trade) but incomplete theory (on development), the German ideologue of Prussian development, Friedrich List, advocated steep protection for German industries, and big fiscal, monetary, market and other support from the German Governments of the time, so that these fledgling industries would not be strangled by England’s Free Trade propaganda, and he wrote something I will mentally reproduce, because it goes to the heart of the Greek problem: “England first climbs up to the top, knocks the ladder which it used to get up over, and then shouts out Free Trade!” This is exactly what the Germans have done to Greece and other European countries that cannot compete with Germany on its terms.
    Basically, the German-Greek fight was just waiting to happen. Nobody is to blame. They just have different interests and each of them should take care of their own country. Of course, that means no German “Euro” flattening out the weaker countries for German interests to pounce upon once flattened out. This is what the Germans are fuming about. Tsipras has shown them up for the crooks they truly are (see the “sales” of arms, Siemens, banks, privatizations, etc.), abetted by pliant Greek governments that got their cut out of what is now Greek Government debt, and the fallout has just started to take hold of the public imagination.

  21. Assuming Greece can leave the EU and start afresh with zero debt (far from guaranteed) how will they fund their future fiscal deficits if no one will finance them?

    Surely Greece needs a complete re-structure of their economy including social welfare programs? It makes more sense to do this within the EU than outside.

  22. briefly

    [t is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018.

    Economists around the world have condemned that target as punitive, because aiming for it will inevitably result in a deeper downturn. Indeed, even if Greece’s debt is restructured beyond anything imaginable, the country will remain in depression if voters there commit to the troika’s target in the snap referendum to be held this weekend.]

  23. [130

    Of the two choices only the EU has the ability to change the EU system Greece has no power by itself to do this and the ball is therefore in the EU court.]

    In this you are as mistaken as the Eurocrats. The people of the EU have already voted more than once to reject the reforms that could save their system. The proposed Treaty amendments were defeated years ago. Effectively, the people of Europe voted to disable integration. This will lead inexorably to dissolution.

    Really, the Europeans have been trying to swim across a fast-moving river. After diving in from one bank they decided some time ago not to make for the other bank. They’re now being carried downstream whether they like it or not. They will be separated by the currents and some risk being sucked under by the flow. Some states may be forced back to shore from which they started and others may make it to the opposing side. One thing is for sure, since they abandoned the effort of swimming together, they now will sink or swim alone.

  24. davidwh – you have to be careful about your terminology.l There is no suggestion Greece would have to leave the EU – it’s just the Eurozone. However, according to Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times, Greece might not go to the Drachma but rather there would be an “indefinite regime of capital controls, perhaps with a bank restructuring later as part of a broader package of debt relief. This would leave Greece inside the Eurozone.”

    In any event, if Greece can’t borrow (though don’t under-estimate the power of bankers to throw good money after bad) they would have to run a primary surplus.

  25. “@LawyerAdamHouda: Last night’s #qanda was the fourth most watched of all time. Good business when no Liberal extremists are invited on the show #auspol”

  26. MTHW at 129

    The ‘absolute free speech crowd’ are suddenly choking on their tongues since the Q & A program with Zacky Mullah. I’ve doubt I’ve ever seen a more self-righteous response from people that usually scream free speech but in this case suddenly feel its not about free speech.
    Actually, its all about free speech.

  27. [BK
    Posted Tuesday, June 30, 2015 at 11:39 am | PERMALINK
    Is the big blow out in the cost and timing of refurbishing The Lodge due to variations to render the doors and walls punch proof?]

    Or gold embroidered curtains for Margie (assuming she would want to live there with TA).

  28. [ Good business when no Liberal extremists are invited on the show #auspol ]

    Yeah, no Lib pollies was good, but they sent their grumpy proxies.

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