ReachTEL has leapt into the post-budget field on behalf of the Seven Network, with an automated phone poll conducted last night from 3180 respondents. It records a slight improvement for the Coalition compared with the pollster’s earlier holding pattern, with the Coalition primary vote on 41.1% (up 1.3%), Labor on 38.3% (down 1.0%), the Greens on 12.1% (up 0.2%) and Palmer United on 2.2% (steady). Interestingly, the poll provides breakdowns by respondents’ employment status, which I might take a closer look at later in comparison with past post-election survey data. The budget doesn’t get a huge endorsement, with 16.4% rating they will be better off, 30.3% worse off and 53.3% about the same.
Contrary to other recent polling, this result gives Bill Shorten a clear lead on preferred prime minister of 57.2-42.8, with the important methodological distinction that respondents to this poll were not allowed an “uncommitted” option. Questions on leadership approval provide more evidence of Tony Abbott’s ongoing improvement, while Bill Shorten’s “satisfactory” result is up at the expense of both favourable and unfavourable responses. A three-way question on who has done the best job promoting the budget finds only 11.7% favouring Tony Abbott, with the rest divided between Joe Hockey (44.8%) and Scott Morrison (43.4%). Full results here.
[JimmyDoyle
….Otherwise, like I said, you have no credibility.]
As I said, most here see this as a game to work on getting one more vote in their column.
Whether the LNP are in government or the ALP are in government is not the issue.
The issue is that Australians, just look around here, continue to support and defend this policy despite the clear evidence of the horrific effects that it is having and the massive costs and the completely ludicrous differences depending on how one arrives.
IMO the most likely outcome to end this policy is a Malcolm Turnbull Prime Ministership. When the Human Rights Commission Report came out and Abbott and Morrison were attacking the President, Malcolm Turnbull, at some political risk, went into the media and said the debate should all be about the children, not the President. Don’t forget the children, he said.
I hope that once in a position of power, Turnbull could actually change this.
I suspect it is hard for the ALP to change, and it won’t change under Abbott or Morrison…..it needs a moderate Lib.
The Greens are great on this, but god forbid they ever have control of the Treasury benches. They are a disaster on economic management grounds as they are even more magic pudding than the ALP.
Jimmy I dont know enough to take comfort as you seem to that Nauru/Manus are so much worse than Malaysia/Timor (or whatever the ALP has proposed) that i can distinguish them from the Coalition in terms of being better. In terms of abiding by international law, am pretty sure there will be a bunch of counterargument on this particularly regarding the Malaysia solution?
This is a big “if” but humour me for a second: if we had a reasonable system of processing refugee applications in-country (via consular or mission activities) but then said that if you seek to circumvent it then you must take accountability for such a decision, is that SO wrong? Obviously i’m not suggesting for a second that you should be tortured and some of these disgusting goings-on. But if there were some hypothetical place (admittedly below Australia’s standard of life) willing to take these people and they will be safe, would that be unreasonable? If no such place exists, then my hypothetical is pointless of course. Cambodia and PNG am not sure if the objection, for example, is that you are treated like a prisoner or that life is bloody hard there. Not the same thing at all.
ModLib
[I know you think that you have corrected statements from me tonight but you haven’t.]
Which is different, of course, to correcting statements you have made about me.
[You said that the High Court had not protected people and I linked a media report of same which specifically said that the High Court had protected people from the ALP policy.]
I said that was a consequence of their decision, not the intention. Again, you misrepresented what I was saying.
Of course, it’s possible you aren’t clever enough to understand the nuances.
[You said that you were against offshore detention in Cambodia as there were no protections for school and employment outcomes, so I pointed out that we disagree as I think it is abhorrent for a country like Australia to send poor vulnerable people to a developing country (even if there were schools and jobs for the asylum seeker as what impact would that have on the local people?).]
We don’t really disagree at all. You have to misrepresent what I said in order to make it look as if we do…which is my point.
[Again, if you think there are numerous examples of me posting something that isn’t true, provide an example…..tonight…..last week……whenever.]
Don’t worry, next time it happens I’ll point it out.
Funny that a big movie star who plays a notorious pirate would have such wimpy dogs. Yorkshire terriers indeed. But surely the scourge of the Seven Seas, if he kept dogs, would be accompanied by two huge mastiffs, slavering hellhounds with names like Mephistopheles and Cerberus.
[Don’t worry, next time it happens I’ll point it out.]
Oh goodeee…the next time you will point it out!!!!
:devil:
Good to know I guess!
..I would also point out that there is no such thing as ‘offshore detention in Cambodia’. I think you mean ‘permanent resettlement in Cambodia’.
Well, I always point it out when it happens, and I know I’ve done this on a number of occasions, so I’m sure it will happen again.
[zoomster
….ModLib
I know you think that you have corrected statements from me tonight but you haven’t.
Which is different, of course, to correcting statements you have made about me.]
zoomster correcting statements from Happiness is different (of course) from
zoomsters correcting statements from Happiness
I see………….well, not so much!
[zoomster
….Well, I always point it out when it happens, and I know I’ve done this on a number of occasions, so I’m sure it will happen again.]
Yes, I know, ALL those times you have done it, including tonight, and yet you are struggling to provide a single one……just as you have before!
….speaks volumes, don’t it?
Happiness
[I suspect it is hard for the ALP to change, and it won’t change under Abbott or Morrison…..it needs a moderate Lib.]
I think what you mean is that it needs a moderate Lib with the numbers in the Liberal Party room. You are totally delusional if you think that is going to happen.
Vale BB King.
Such a total freakin’ legend.
Zoom, lets just go with that for a second… ie “if you try and circumvent the Aus system and just turn up, there is every chance you get Cambodia as a result”.
Yes, would want the Aus system to be efficient and working well, but if (a) we could get it there and (b) Cambodia (whilst a tough life) treated these people the same as their own citizens – why would this be abominable?
If the objection to Cambodia is that they treat everyone like North Korea treats its own then that is altogether different in my mind to Cambodia being a tough place to live
[Expat Follower
…..But if there were some hypothetical place (admittedly below Australia’s standard of life) willing to take these people and they will be safe, would that be unreasonable? If no such place exists, then my hypothetical is pointless of course. Cambodia and PNG am not sure if the objection, for example, is that you are treated like a prisoner or that life is bloody hard there. Not the same thing at all.]
There are several countries taking refugees (as classified by the UNHCR for example). However, what is being proposed by resettlement in Nauru or PNG or Cambodia is not equivalent to people being accepted in Canada or the UK or Australia.
I have been to all of those three developing countries and it is unconscionable in my opinion to bribe developing countries to take over Australia’s legitimate responsibility for protecting these people.
What the Australian government is doing here is using its funding muscle to bribe developing nations to take over responsibilities that they have no infrastructure to support in the long term.
If, as is claimed, people are going to become legitimate citizens of the country in which they are to be resettled, what will happen? Do you think a 2 year old Hazara girl would be safe in Port Moresby? Are the unaccompanied minors released into Nauru safe? Even if they go to a Cambodian school and the father gets a $2 per day job in Cambodia, just like his next door neighbour, is that a legitimate outcome for someone who was within Australia’s sphere of influence having sought help from us?
No cuts to the ABC or SBS, no cuts to education or health.
The real Mod Lib would have been bloody outraged about these lies because s/he spent 3 years being seriously concerned about politicians saying something that might be a lie. I’m sorry I missed that.
Polls telling lies about cuts to the ABC is not morally equivalent to the abuse of children due to mandatory detention policies.
[1001
Happiness
I hope that once in a position of power, Turnbull could actually change this… it needs a moderate Lib.]
That is so completely laughable. Turnbull is nothing but a sellout to the hard right. He’s also not even a good politician given that he was fooled by a mentally ill public servant and couldn’t even hold the leadership against a crackpot like Abbott. Your great hope is going to sorely disappoint you in the extremely unlikely event he’s ever leader again.
[The Greens are great on this, but god forbid they ever have control of the Treasury benches. They are a disaster on economic management grounds as they are even more magic pudding than the ALP.]
Lol did you just download the magic pudding talking point into your brain direct from Liberal HQ? Or maybe it was Abbott’s office? Talk about uncanny!
You profess to be gravely concerned about the injustice that has been perpetrated against refugees by the Labor Party, but you never quite bring yourself to condemn the far nastier treatment of refugees by the Coalition nor are you willing to back up your supposedly principled stance with meaningful action. Your sanctimonious posturing is so utterly vacuous and hypocritical that it’s no real wonder why so many here have nothing but contempt for anything you have to say.
All these words from Moddy, but the simple truth is that it was the Howard gang that started Australia on its descent into the gutter on Asylum Seeker policy and it is the Abbott gang that is now wallowing in the filth it and Howard’s gang created.
Piss off Moddy and come back when you have cleaned up your own lot.
Best. Ever. BB King video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueaANdi5em4
Better than even his work with Tracy Chapman. So totally what a BB King jam should be.
[ letting people live in the community will work for the vast majority who pose no problem, but its those who would pose a problem and would disappear at the first opportunity that the system has to be seen to prevent effectively. And we simply dont know who is who at the outset. ]
True, but i think that is all practically manageable.
The biggest problem with AS matters for anyone actually interested in the issue in Australia from a Human Rights perspective is pure politics, and it is the Liberal party’s continual exploitation and encouragement of the xenophobia that has always been with us here that led us into a situation where the RWNJ’s own the issue.
The closest our system has managed to come to doing anything really positive in the last few years was the attempt to get the Malaysia deal running. It wasn’t perfect, but it would have been a start and maybe a demonstration model.
The high court made decision at law, the Govt moved to change the law (as is their right) and the Libs blocked it because THEY WANTED THE BOATS To KEEP COMING at that point in the electoral cycle. Knowing they would be able to then use further arrivals to show what hard men they are if they were elected.
Takes a hard man to keep a little girl in detention after she has been abused and seen others abused, and Morrison is just the bloke for that. 🙁 The man is scum.
I did support the original proposal Rudd put in place for offshore processing. But, that was on the assumption that we would actually support those people properly while in detention (the ALP may have, the Libs demonstrably have not) and that we would be getting them assessed and trying to place them in a reasonable time frame (which the Libs are not). Maybe the ALP would have fwarked it up just a badly, but i am certain they would not have tried to hide things the way the Libs have and created the dark place we have now where children (and others) are being abused, the Govt knows it, and they are not trying to stop it.
The offshore detention regime we have now is too costly on any metric you care to use to continue with. But i dont think there will be any possibility of any change until we change the Govt. They are locked into something simplistic that has met their political objective.
Will be interesting to see if anything positive in terms of regional cooperation or ideas comes out of the current tragedy in the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal. I hope so.
So you are going to give your thoughts on forcing people in to lifeboats Mod Lib
Just jumping back to the bracket creep debate.
I can’t see how bracket creep is a problem at the moment.
I always thought for bracket creep to occur you required wage growth.
[bemused
….All these words from Moddy, but the simple truth is that it was the Howard gang that started Australia on its descent into the gutter on Asylum Seeker policy ]
Keating started mandatory detention
Howard started offshore processing
Rudd/Gillard started the never to be accepted into Australia policy and Malaysian rendition
Abbott re-started the turning back the boats policy
I condemn all governments since Fraser on this issue, ALP and LNP.
Many here only condemn LNP governments, as you see this as a way to advance your footy team, having no consideration of the principles involved.
confessions@1018
Gary Moore was a great loss too. Died so young, just 58.
At least B.B. made it to a ripe old age.
Happiness you are pulling at heartstrings a little to make your point. If a genuine refugee and assessed as such then am not suggesting they get thrown out regardless. But if not a genuine refugee but a queue jumper then? Give them the choice between going back to their country or taking Cambodia if Cambodia willing to take them.
If someone just rocks up (regardless of mode) undocumented then perform the assessment dispassionately. But because you have chosen to turn up in this fashion, i dont see it as unreasonable to detain you until the assessment is complete. Not as humane as letting you live in the community, but i did previously comment on utopian elements of such a system that you did not respond to 🙂
[ Howard started offshore processing ]
what a nice guy, let’s spruik for his remnants and see if they can make a competent budget one day
BB King with Pavarotti!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wq4yFgyeOjo
[Just jumping back to the bracket creep debate. ]
Its better that the Mod Creep.
[ I can’t see how bracket creep is a problem at the moment. ]
Actually i dont really either, but its something to spank Hockey with. 🙂
I’m surprised it came up as an issue so soon after the Tax free thresholds were bumped up??
[965
leftwingpinko
Both parties know why they support various offshore processing policies. It is because the Australian people are inherently racist.]
Considering the ethnic and cultural diversity we can readily observe in the community, the proposition that we are inherently racist is just not supportable. I know that in my work-a-day life, I encounter all-sorts – Persian, Vietnamese, Chinese, Kenyan, Indian, Irish, Scot, English, Sri Lankan, Italian, Afghan, Kurd, Greeks, German, Singaporean, Malaysian, Hungarian, Bulgarian, Polish, Lithuanian, Korean, South African, Taiwanese, Maori, Pakeha, Dutch, Slav, French…and many more. It’s very far from the truth to say we are “inherently racist”. We’re inherently all much the same, as far as I can see.
I think the electorate has been spooked by fear of “economic migrants”, of competitors in the labour market. The same misapprehension in the 19th century gave rise to the White Australia policy, a policy deliberately intended to prevent the inflow of unskilled labour that would compete for jobs in the depressed economy of the 1890s. The 19th century workforce was also characterised by the use of bonded labour, a restrictive practice that depressed the rights and incomes of workers from the very earliest days of settlement until its abolition at the time of Federation.
The same set of factors are present in the current economy – the (exaggerated) fear of an unimpeded flow of unskilled workers and the use of indentures in relation to parts of the temporary (foreign) workforce. We have around 300,000 guest workers here at any time, as well as several hundred thousand part-time student/workers. All told, we’ve had up to a million temporary workers here at various time over the last 20 years. This has been good for the economy, but we would do even better with a permanent labour force than a temporary one.
We have the advantage of other precedents to which we can refer. In particular, we can recall the large scale, economy-changing acceptance of displaced persons from the 1950s on. This should be our model. We should set out to induct and mobilise the current populations of those displaced by war, revolution and political repression, just as we have so successfully in the past.
Rather than adding to the repression of these peoples, we should welcome and permanently settle them in significant numbers. As well, we should progressively close down the guest worker labour market and immediately abolish indentures.
This would be both an economically wise and an ethically supportable program.
We can put an end to a refugee system that is premised on fear and vilification, and carried out by the recurring use of violence against the vulnerable; a system that creates shame and everything that flows from it – secrecy, denial, guilt, conspiracy, cruelty, self-hatred, anger, fear, division, contumely and rejection.
We owe this to ourselves as much as to those sorry few who appeal to us for our help.
[Expat Follower
…Happiness you are pulling at heartstrings a little to make your point.]
What is happening to the kids does that to you (well to some and not others anyway!)
[If a genuine refugee and assessed as such then am not suggesting they get thrown out regardless. ]
Almost everyone coming here by boat seeking asylum is found to be a genuine refugee. Contrast that to those arriving by plane who often are not. Yet those arriving by boat are detained (the average length of detention for children is >15 months, in the UK its 5 days as they done allow prolonged detention like us on humanitarian grounds and they have a much bigger problem than us over there).
imacca@1027
In an ideal world, governments would be able to make explicit tax adjustments including increases, with just rational debate / discussion.
But in a world where tax changes are irrationally demonised, about the only mechanism a govt can safely use is bracket creep.
That is where the small govt, low tax rhetoric has got us. 🙁
[ as you see this as a way to advance your footy team, having no consideration of the principles involved. ]
The above says far more about you Mod, than anyone else who posts here. And none of it good.
[1018
confessions
Best. Ever. BB King video.]
…ooohhh!
I suddenly feel much reduced!
Barney in Saigon
[Just jumping back to the bracket creep debate.
I can’t see how bracket creep is a problem at the moment.
I always thought for bracket creep to occur you required wage growth.]
Wages growth is low at the moment so bracket creep is only occurring slowly so you could argue that indexing the brackets is less of a priority. All the same low wages growth will not continue indefinitely.
I just went back to the earlier comments re bracket creep and found this from you which I don’t understand at all…
[If you used ave weekly earnings then you could get the situation where someone with real wages growth above the CPI wouldn’t move up through the bands.]
If the brackets were indexed correctly people with real wages growth would be the only ones to move up through the brackets.
Don
[Bracket creep under the present circumstances is an excellent procedure.
We are very lightly taxed, and bracket creep redresses that in a painless way.
Compare our income tax with those of places like the Scandanavian countries. If we want better health outcomes, and dental care added to the medicare portfolio, we need more income. Bracket creep provides that.]
I disagree very strongly. There are two separate issues here. The general level of income tax paid by PAYE taxpayers (there is perhaps an argument that it should be more) and bracket creep, which progressively increases the burden on PAYE taxpayers.
imacca – if practically manageable to maintain system integrity whilst letting them live in the community, i’m all ears. Ankle bracelets? But if not, mandatory detention of itself is not unreasonable for an undocumented arrival – mandatory detention in horrid inhumance conditions clearly is, please I hope i am abundantly clear in making that distinction. Also, if we are to detain, then we absolutely are accountable for that detention being humane – and this is where Morrisson seemed to be dodging such, which is outrageous as many point out.
Happiness, i stand to be corrected on this, but i remember news reports on loads of Vietnamese and Cambodians marooned in Villawood in Fraser’s time. Are you sure his policy was to release all arrivals into the community pending assessment?? I find that very hard to believe. I also dont quite follow this previous point of yours that Aus was only one of two countries that did detention… you cant seriously be suggesting that if i snuck into any number of western countries without a visa or even a passport and got sprung that i would be released into the community? I simply do not believe you, given the admittedly anecdotal personal knowledge i have of such instances in the USA, UK, Canada just to name 3…
[imacca
….The above says far more about you Mod]
Indeed it does.
Well have a fun night Bludgeroonies, the time has come for my much needed beauty sleep.
No doubt we will engage in this discussion again some time!
Guten nacht.
[1030
bemused
But in a world where tax changes are irrationally demonised, about the only mechanism a govt can safely use is bracket creep.]
Bracket creep means workers’ incomes rise less quickly than the tax they must pay.
It’s a dud deal.
briefly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMEzFgCLv8c
Briefly
[Bracket creep means workers’ incomes rise less quickly than the tax they must pay.
It’s a dud deal.]
Yes….and it is so easy to fix by indexing the brackets.
My 2 cents on AS policy.
After over a decade of both parties being complete and utter bastards on the issue I can understand why neither party wants these people to settle in Australia.
They know that as a result of the process many are now so mentally f###ed up that you wouldn’t want them in society and they certainly don’t want to cover the ongoing medical bills relating to health issues as a result of their detention.
:devil:
Galaxy 52/48 to Labor.
Expat Follower @ 1002 – In regards to your question about how Labor and the Coalition have regarded our international obligations to refugees I will simply refer you to the Coalition’s attempts to remove any mention of the Refugee Convention from the Migration Act, the very provisions the High Court used to strike down the Malaysia solution, a decision which Labor abided with.
As for my position on this issue, which you queried in your second paragraph, I mentioned it in a reply to Happiness at 968, which is that I support onshore in-community processing subject to health checks. Given that 95% (according to Amnesty) of applicants are found to be genuine refugees, I don’t envision there being a need for harsh punishments for those found not genuine. A simple flight home would suffice.
1036
I have not much sympathy for the top bracket creeping. A little sympathy for the second and a lot for the other two.
Expat:
Gotta go but read this summary:
http://www.solidarity.net.au/refugees/twenty-years-too-long-the-history-of-mandatory-detention/
[Almost everyone coming here by boat seeking asylum is found to be a genuine refugee. Contrast that to those arriving by plane who often are not.]
So no argument that we should be much more efficient in conducting assessments.
How many undocumented arrivals are there by plane in this day and age, H? Significant numbers. You are not distinguishing between those who arrive with a visa and subsequently claim asylum and those who arrive with nothing and claim asylum.
My argument is that (1) If you arrive with a visa (whether by boat or by plane) then the visa should be honoured regardless of whether you are likely to subsequently claim AS or not, (2) If you arrive without a visa or a passport (whether by boat or by plane) you should be detained whether you concurrently claim AS or not and assessed accordingly. Do you disagree with either of the above?
If you are arguing that there is an inconsistency in treatment of undocumented arrivals based on their mode of entry, this would be interesting but i dont think that is what you are saying?
sorry only “undocumented” in the last para above was meant to be in bold
I’m probably more at risk of bracket creep than most, but until we get to the point we were at pre-Howard/Rudd tax cuts, we probably need to let those sneaky increases in the tax base slide. I’d be more amenable to boosting the tax free threshold if we do need to make some tax adjustments than increasing the higher brackets.
Cutting entitlements to people in the higher brackets remains the priority, along with reforming super to be more progressive. I’d also completely reform the way savings and investments are taxed, but that’s a bit ambitious for the small target politicians we persist in electing.
TTFAB
[I have not much sympathy for the top bracket creeping. A little sympathy for the second and a lot for the other two.]
What we need to do is
1) Work out the appropriate rate of tax that should be paid by people across the entire range of PAYE incomes.
2) Set the brackets so that everyone is paying the appropriate amount.
3) Index the brackets.
If this was done the tax burden on an individual would only rise when they get a real wage increase.
Jimmy, so 95% are genuine but 5% is not insignificant. Being inconvenienced humanely as a result of circumventing the system whilst we efficiently determine whether you are one of the 5% or not is not unreasonable.
Yes, a flight home for those who are undesirable or nongenuine is all i am advocating too. But to Happiness earlier, how do you put them on the flight home if released into the community and they vanish? Its not an unreasonable question – if there is a solution then am all ears. No vested bias here, am genuinely of the feeling that being seen to maintain system integrity is genuinely important both as a reality and as a potential (dis)incentive to nongenuine arrivals
Sorry to be consistent: the undesirable/nongenuine should be given a choice between a flight home or going onto Cambodia provided the latter is willing to take them
[1037
confessions
\
briefly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMEzFgCLv8c%5D
Glorious…thanks 🙂