BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

Aggregation of poll results continues to record a slow improvement in the Coalition’s position on voting intention, and a much quicker one for Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten on leadership ratings.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate swings back to Labor this week, following an improved but still below par result from Newspoll, and softer results for them from Morgan and Essential Research. Together with the previous week’s strong result for Labor from ReachTEL washing out of the system, the result is a 0.7% move to the Coalition on two-party preferred and an improvement of three on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. With the further addition of Newspoll numbers to the leadership ratings, there’s still no let-up of the emphatic trend in favour of Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten since immediately after the Liberal Party spill vote at the beginning of February, with Abbott now being credited with the lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since October.

Electoral reform news:

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “speculation is rising that the government will attempt to pass measures that would effectively sign the death warrant for micro parties immediately before calling the next election” (while further speculation reported by Laurie Oakes says that election may be rather soon). However, the task of achieving that is said to be complicated by splits in both Labor and the Greens. Among those in the Labor camp raising concerns are Penny Wong, Stephen Conroy, Sam Dastyari and “a number of unions”, who reportedly consider that micro-parties are mostly winning seats at the expense of the Coalition, and believe the proposal to abolish group voting tickets through a move to optional preferential voting would advantage the Greens (although Gary Gray and Alan Griffin, both Labor members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, stand by the committee’s recommendation to that effect). The Greens nonetheless appear divided on both the reform’s likely impact on their prospects, and whether that should be their primary objective in any case. It is said the reform could starve the Greens of preferences required to win seats in Queensland (understandably), South Australia (understandably only for as long as Nick Xenophon’s on the scene) and Western Australia (not understandably, as far as I can see). At the same time, there is concern about how the party membership would react if the party cut a deal with the Coalition, which might involve a compromise of maintaining group voting tickets but imposing a 4% primary vote threshold.

• Daniel McCullogh of the Launceston Examiner reports that Labor in Tasmania is grumbling about the state’s quirky Legislative Council system, in which the chamber’s 15 electoral districts face election over a staggered six-year cycle. Labor complains the low-key campaigns result in depressed turnout and an unfair advantage to incumbents. Labor is also unhappy about the tight $15,000 spending caps for Legislative Council elections.

Preselection news:

• Sharyn O’Neil of the Morning Bulletin reports that Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor, will again seek Labor preselection in Capricornia, the central Queensland seat where he narrowly failed in a bid to succeed retiring party colleague Kirsten Livermore. The seat has since been held for the Liberal National Party by Michelle Landry, who won the seat by a margin of 0.8%. The report also says Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow had been planning to nominate, but is no longer.

• Stephen Smiley from the ABC reports it is generally expected Christine Milne’s resignation as Greens leader yesterday is to be followed in the not too distant future by retirement from the Senate. The leading candidate to fill her vacancy would appear to be Nick McKim, who holds a state seat for Franklin and was the party’s state leader until after the March 2014 election. The best-placed Greens candidate to win McKim’s state seat from recounting of last year’s election looks to be Huon Valley councillor Rosalie Woodruff.

• Labor has preselected Mike Kelly to attempt to recover the seat of Eden-Monaro which he narrowly lost to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy by a margin of 4.8% in 2013, a result that retained the seat’s bellwether status going back to 1972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,436 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 45 of 49
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  1. 2198
    I’ll give you a small clue. Properties that used to be used for housing are being emptied at a rapid rate. No demand no expense. When the ships/ coast guard aren’t up north what are they doing, perhaps they’re in non expense mode.

  2. Jason Clare doing well on Qanda. I was worried it might be a Clive Hour episode, but that isn’t happening. Everyone’s getting a reasonable chance to give their view.

  3. Of course then we have the U.S

    When was the last time a Political Party in the U.S won a Presidential Election 3 Times in a Row(and yes I know, a Pres is limited to 2 Terms, I’m talking a New candidate from the same Party)

  4. Wouldn’t it be sad if Happiness is working here on no minimum wage and surviving mainly on tips from TBAussie

  5. [Did anyone here change their support for mandatory detention after the revelations in the Forgotten Children report]

    I think if anything what those reports show is the relative worthlessness of the current UNHCR treaties. If countries like Australia, PNG and Nauru can be signatories to the Convention and those kinds of abuses can occur under their watch, then what’s the point of the Convention?

    Like I’ve said before, junk it and start again premised on present day realities.

  6. 2193
    Happiness

    ….these are the instruments of a deliberately malignant Government.

    Which?

    You left out Howard…the PM who always had form as a xenophobe and who championed malice as an instrument of policy.

  7. Happy Troll@2197

    It never had my support beyond initial health and id checks.

    We’re all immigrants and refugees somewhere in our past and this is one of the reasons Australia was the great place it was.

    It shits me that the xenophobes and political opportunists have taken this issue and used it to divide and scare the population for no more than their own personal gain.

  9. [TrueBlueAussie
    ….When was the last time a Political Party in the U.S won a Presidential Election 3 Times in a Row]

    Bush (senior) after Reagan in 1988

  10. And this is the first I’ve seen of Porter really since he left for the Federal sphere.

    I’m sure his presence in Barnett’s Cabinet is sorely missed.

  11. [briefly
    …..You left out Howard…the PM who always had form as a xenophobe and who championed malice as an instrument of policy.]

    I didn’t leave him out, I was asking whether you were ignoring the ALP governments who had the same policies you were criticising Abbott for.

    You still haven’t answered I see…….wonder why that would be?

  12. [2205
    confessions

    Did anyone here change their support for mandatory detention after the revelations in the Forgotten Children report]

    I have decided the approach of successive governments has failed. It is “White Australia” re-visited. The policy now in place sets out to degrade the vulnerable and in the end brings nothing but shame on us.

  16. briefly:

    My own view is that the failures have resulted because of a broader failure of the overarching international frameworks.

  17. I’ve changed my mind about mandatory OS detention. Mainly since the Libs came to power, and took it to a much much darker place than i think was ever intended.

  18. [TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Monday, May 11, 2015 at 10:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Happiness… not so good for the Democrat record]

    There are major demographic shifts in the US, making it harder and harder for Republicans to get elected.

    Particularly since the primaries are decided by the right wing (pushing Republican candidates to the right) and the elections are decided by the centre.

  19. 2215
    Happiness

    I’m not accountable to you, H. I have said what I think is the case.

    The civil domain has now also been subsumed by military and para-military interdiction and captivity. This is a very troubling development.

  20. And its revolting isnt it, that the Govt seems quite happy for the abuse of children in detention to continue? They, being the actual Govt, being the ones with the power to actually stop it.

  22. [2216
    confessions

    briefly:

    My own view is that the failures have resulted because of a broader failure of the overarching international frameworks.]

    Sadly, I think our failures are our own work. For most purposes, we have written the Convention out of our legal framework. Our own Parliament did this and many of us – and I’m not exempt – have all gone along with it.

  24. We could have a completely different set of approaches to ourselves, to our economy and culture and to the displaced. It’s not beyond us to do that. We’ve done it before. But instead we have let fear decide things for us. It is a terrible pity.

  25. [imacca
    Posted Monday, May 11, 2015 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK
    And its revolting isnt it, that the Govt seems quite happy for the abuse of children in detention to continue? They, being the actual Govt, being the ones with the power to actually stop it.]

    Indeed.

    This applies to every government since Keating (inclusive).

  26. [ This applies to every government since Keating (inclusive). ]

    I dont really give a flying fwark about that of diversional “observation” Mod. But its the kind of revoltingly shallow response i’ve come to expect from morally rancid pond slime such as yourself.

    The issue is now, not historic. The Govt we have now should be judged on its response now. Comparisons to previous or hypothetical future Govts are stupidly meaningless distractions.

    They should close down Manus and Nauru. The lack of support for resettlement and support while in detention has meant that IF that kind of detention regime had any value once in any context it certainly does not now. And it all happens behind the secrecy insisted on by Morrison, another evil in and of itself designed purely to prop up the Libs hold on power.

  28. [For most purposes, we have written the Convention out of our legal framework. ]

    We do need a more up to date Convention, however. And perhaps not just on refugees, but on other issues as well. Torture and trauma and prisoners of war for eg.

  30. [2227
    Happiness

    For you this is a means to a party political end.

    For me it is about principles.]

    We have to start where are, not where we used to be; and we have to start by imagining where we want to go.

    We have to start with fear, because it is fear that drives rejection and permits cruelty. It is unnecessary and self-defeating. We allow fear to choose for us – to choose despair, secrecy and shame. We should find the same courage that refugees have found. As Abbott himself says, we should try to be our better selves.

  31. [ For me it is about principles. ]
    It’s almost like you never used to go on endlessly about unfair treatment of asylum seekers at all

  32. [2228
    confessions

    For most purposes, we have written the Convention out of our legal framework.

    We do need a more up to date Convention, however. And perhaps not just on refugees, but on other issues as well. Torture and trauma and prisoners of war for eg.]

    I completely agree.

  34. [So, I wonder how Hockey’s first budget will go down?]

    FWIW Clive on Qanda was adamant the Senate would reject the proposed changes to child care payments.

  35. Why should rich mothers be able double dip from the taxpayer?

    Labor will have problems attacking this one

  37. So Christan Porter admits that the government will continue to waste over $1.3 billion a year on its failed JSP. good to see the Liberals are serious about budge repair. lets just stop wasting taxpayers money on crap.

  38. [2235
    TrueBlueAussie

    Why should rich mothers be able double dip from the taxpayer?]

    It’s not Labor that Abbott needs to worry about. It’s the mothers – and their partners – who figure they’ve paid their taxes and that Abbott has no business abolishing their parental rights.

  39. TBA

    Well the government wouldn’t need to do it if they stopped wasting over $1.3 billion a year, I will be looking for other budget fat as I suspect there will be plenty.

  40. [2234
    confessions

    So, I wonder how Hockey’s first budget will go down?]

    From what we’ve heard so far, it’s clear the LNP can’t do social policy. They can’t manage economic policy either. They really don’t know how to co-ordinate social investment and income policies with tax, labour force and productivity goals, but instead try to play politics. They have wedged themselves…again…!!

  41. Pretty desperate spin to imply that the results of a cherry-picked handful of international elections (plus a wild speculation about a future one) has any bearing on the results of Australian election.

  42. Scomo’s Bird analogy makes sense. Joe didn’t urinate in public but he pisses the public off, he smokes cigars rather than snort snow, he has clearly been largely suspended for pre-budget appearances and many are calling for the termination of his political career.

  45. Windhover

    I think Hockey’s party are treating him badly. He, personally, has been fairly consistent in his message, but his colleagues have no problem contributing conflicting, populist signals and pulling stupid political stunts.

  46. [I suppose one could argue that they’re the cultures closest to our own, Carey.]

    That would be a tenuous argument at best.

    In fact, we don’t need to go far to see the Coalition in power in Australia, with centre-left (we’ll bypass the usual leftist pedantry over this label) parties being in power in other countries, as well as vice-versa.

    Howard was in the prime of his reign while the Democrats, UK Labour, Canadian Liberals etc. won elections.

    Hawke similarly served while notable conservatives such as Thatcher, Reagan and Mulroney were all in power.

  48. I wouldn’t be surprised to discover that all the clumsy attempts to balance the nasties with “nice” stuff in both this and the previous budget were put there by other people, e.g. Abbott.

  50. [ Not attacking Abbott and Hockey on Budget? ]
    Not talking down the economy in opposition like Abbott and Hockey

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