The BludgerTrack poll aggregate swings back to Labor this week, following an improved but still below par result from Newspoll, and softer results for them from Morgan and Essential Research. Together with the previous week’s strong result for Labor from ReachTEL washing out of the system, the result is a 0.7% move to the Coalition on two-party preferred and an improvement of three on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. With the further addition of Newspoll numbers to the leadership ratings, there’s still no let-up of the emphatic trend in favour of Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten since immediately after the Liberal Party spill vote at the beginning of February, with Abbott now being credited with the lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since October.
Electoral reform news:
• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “speculation is rising that the government will attempt to pass measures that would effectively sign the death warrant for micro parties immediately before calling the next election” (while further speculation reported by Laurie Oakes says that election may be rather soon). However, the task of achieving that is said to be complicated by splits in both Labor and the Greens. Among those in the Labor camp raising concerns are Penny Wong, Stephen Conroy, Sam Dastyari and “a number of unions”, who reportedly consider that micro-parties are mostly winning seats at the expense of the Coalition, and believe the proposal to abolish group voting tickets through a move to optional preferential voting would advantage the Greens (although Gary Gray and Alan Griffin, both Labor members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, stand by the committee’s recommendation to that effect). The Greens nonetheless appear divided on both the reform’s likely impact on their prospects, and whether that should be their primary objective in any case. It is said the reform could starve the Greens of preferences required to win seats in Queensland (understandably), South Australia (understandably only for as long as Nick Xenophon’s on the scene) and Western Australia (not understandably, as far as I can see). At the same time, there is concern about how the party membership would react if the party cut a deal with the Coalition, which might involve a compromise of maintaining group voting tickets but imposing a 4% primary vote threshold.
• Daniel McCullogh of the Launceston Examiner reports that Labor in Tasmania is grumbling about the state’s quirky Legislative Council system, in which the chamber’s 15 electoral districts face election over a staggered six-year cycle. Labor complains the low-key campaigns result in depressed turnout and an unfair advantage to incumbents. Labor is also unhappy about the tight $15,000 spending caps for Legislative Council elections.
Preselection news:
• Sharyn O’Neil of the Morning Bulletin reports that Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor, will again seek Labor preselection in Capricornia, the central Queensland seat where he narrowly failed in a bid to succeed retiring party colleague Kirsten Livermore. The seat has since been held for the Liberal National Party by Michelle Landry, who won the seat by a margin of 0.8%. The report also says Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow had been planning to nominate, but is no longer.
• Stephen Smiley from the ABC reports it is generally expected Christine Milne’s resignation as Greens leader yesterday is to be followed in the not too distant future by retirement from the Senate. The leading candidate to fill her vacancy would appear to be Nick McKim, who holds a state seat for Franklin and was the party’s state leader until after the March 2014 election. The best-placed Greens candidate to win McKim’s state seat from recounting of last year’s election looks to be Huon Valley councillor Rosalie Woodruff.
• Labor has preselected Mike Kelly to attempt to recover the seat of Eden-Monaro which he narrowly lost to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy by a margin of 4.8% in 2013, a result that retained the seat’s bellwether status going back to 1972.
@2241 – especially when history shows no parallel relationship. Correlation does not equal causation.
It also shows how superficial a certain someone’s understanding of the changes in the United States is. Up until the 1990s, the Democrats were largely seen as the party of Congress, and the GOP, the party of the Presidency. Hence why in the 20th Century you have Republican Presidents with massive Democratic Congresses. This is changing, rapidly.
We get Newspoll soon, right?
[CHRIS UHLMANN: Clearly the message he wants to get out is that he has a far more generous parental leave program than the Government’s promised 18 weeks at the minimum wage.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2010/s2841197.htm
Whats the message now Chris?]
with uhlmann the message will be whatever menzie’s house, murdoch and his happy clappy church think it should be. He’s the worst of the ABC libs/abbott lovers, although Leigh Sayles is playing catch up judging by her performance tonight – she let Mark Textor go on uninterrupted re: what abbott’s policies are right and why he should not move to the centre, claiming labor here and in the UK had gone too far to the left, and encouraged him to equate shorten with miliband, and even let him get away with a very obvious pretence that he couldn’t even remember shorten’s name. Left of centre interviewees do not get the same rah rah, respect and leeway they give to far right ‘commentators’ at the ABC nowadays.
Carey, J341983
Even if they’re the closest, I’m not sure sure they’re all that close, and I don’t think one can translate between behaviours so simply.
It seems to me that’s how the comparisons were chosen, however.
Will be interesting to see what kind of distraction and spin the more vacuous of the trolls like Mod and TBA are coming up with this time next week. 🙂
Budget, what Budget?
The ABC is well and truly farked.
SF
That’s because when they’re in for a bit of criticism, the right start playing the victim. Nobody wants to feel like a bully.
Hmm
[Gold Coast Nurse @GoldCoastNurse
Credlin and Hockey about to be dumped in 2 weeks and MORRISON and NSW president to replace according to Lib in the know #auspol #qldpol]
does Morrison get to keep his sixty six spin doctors?
[ Why should rich mothers be able double dip from the taxpayer? ]
Good idea TBA. I suppose if that’s your attitude you support cutting all Govt assistance for Private Schools as well. They double dip same same as these bludging mothers. Collecting fees AND getting taxpayer funds the bastards!
[ Labor will have problems attacking this one ]
They wont have to. Everyone else with more than half a brain ( so not you or Mod obviously ) will. 🙂
imacca
All Abbott’s former friends, bought with his now dead, buried and cremated PPL, for example.
[That’s because when they’re in for a bit of criticism, the right start playing the victim. Nobody wants to feel like a bully.]
I think they have a squad of ex- and current lib pollies who complain re: any hint of ‘bias’ and this strategy is working for the libs. the number if far right ‘think tank’ reps on ABC TV, Radio and on-line media is a disgrace, and they are rarely if ever ‘balanced’ by a similar hard left view – labor left or greens is a left as ABC can bring themselves to go and even then they get shouted over much of the time. tony jones, sayles and uhlmann are well and truly cowed into giving the right the floor uninterupted and only doing their jobs for left of centre points of view. they deserve ever bit of pain abbott’s broken funding cut promises give them.
Weird Galaxy/Newspoll anyway. Well here’s hoping.
The right have been running the “left wing media” meme for decades.
There was a Newspoll last week, so there won’t be one this week.
[ The right have been running the “left wing media” meme for decades. ]
Its persistent delusional behavior isn’t it??
Will be interesting to see the level of delusion expressed tomorrow night. 🙂
I know Nate found evidence of poll herding in the US in 14 but is there any evidence it happened in the UK?
And more importantly, will it happen here before the next election or is the number of pollsters too small for it to happen?
2259
Why would they be pre-planning to dump the Treasurer 2 weeks after the budget? Are they deliberately setting the budget up to dump Hockey? That would fit with hockey delivering the bad news and Morrison the good news. Other than that it sounds ridiculous.
[ it sounds ridiculous. ]
Which would be out of character for this mob how??
2270
Good point.
just watching Lateline.
Mr Barron fact checked the “double dipping” claim against the coalitions pre-election promises.
This is going to be a fwarking disaster for the Libs. 🙂
[The right have been running the “left wing media” meme for decades.]
It’s one of many memes imported from the Republican’s… Just say it often enough and hope people can’t count.
We will have to see how it goes but “inconsistency” seems to be the biggest theme developing around the budget… both on PPL and “debt and deficit”.
It seems to (partisan) me, that whenever an ABC interviewer feels an ALP rep is getting a good run they are required (so as not to seem biased) to ask “what does the ALP stand for”. It looks like after the budget this will be an excellent invitation to hold forth on the many contradictions of the LNP.
[And more importantly, will it happen here before the next election or is the number of pollsters too small for it to happen .]
My unreliable partisan bones recon any poll herding is toward the Libs here.
David Cameron’s new 21 member cabinet has 9 women MP’s or 42%
Cameron has a minister for climate change and a minister for the environment
Pity Australia doesn’t have a real conservative government like Cameron or Merkel, we just have crap
The double dipping argument is BS.
As one of the people involved in the development of the government scheme said, wtte, the government scheme was designed to supplement employer schemes with the ultimate aim of giving mothers access to 26 weeks PPL.
The 26 weeks supposedly is a minimum length of time that allows appropriate bonding between mother and child and is important in supporting the child’s ongoing development.
Question for Abbott;
Why did he propose 26 weeks for his PPL scheme?
http://blogs.reuters.com/hugo-dixon/2015/05/11/greece-seemingly-has-no-plan-a-or-plan-b/
desperate times for Greece
Morning all. Well budget day is upon us. What will we get? Will Hockey play good cop or bad cop? Looking at the polls and recent Liberal announcements, he is not about to embark upon any real reforms. So it will be hitting a few hollow logs like the Netflix Tax (AKA the Save Rupert Tax) and using the money to buy votes.
If he does buy votes, I hope it is doing something useful like this:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/gold-coast-light-rail-absolutely-critical-for-federal-budget-tourism-boss-20150511-ggz8eb.html
And not rubbish like this. $150k per electorate? They will spend more than that assessing the applications. $45 million wasted on meaningless tokenism.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-government-to-splash-45m-for-local-infrastructure-projects-20150511-ggz3y3.html
Briefly
Greece’s plan has always been Plan D – delay as long as possible, and hope the pressure eases off in the mean time, and that German taxpayers have short memories. Of course, the ECB has no plan B either, only plan A – austerity – and that has clearly failed. Grexit is the correct solution for both sides. The ECB leadership needs to change for that to be admitted by a new chief.
[
TrueBlueAussie
Posted Monday, May 11, 2015 at 9:51 pm | Permalink
Of course then we have the U.S
When was the last time a Political Party in the U.S won a Presidential Election 3 Times in a Row(and yes I know, a Pres is limited to 2 Terms, I’m talking a New candidate from the same Party)
]
God knows what your on about; but the answer to your question is Franklin D. Roosevel; he served three terms from 1936 to 1945.
The Army Chief General David Morrison (the decent Morrison) with some more wise words.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-11/create-the-society-you-want-to-live-in-urges-chief/6461784
General Morrison may well be one of the few persons in Australia today who strikes me as being a true leader, with moral authority. Someone should find him a role in public life, as he is far too talented a person to retire this young.
Climate change is still crap, yet these unrelated coincidences keep happening.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-12/sea-level-rise-accelerates-faster-in-past-20-years/6461752
Have a good day all. Stock in a good book and some nice wine for this evening if you do not want to listen to Joe Hockey drone on about why he must make the poor poorer, and why he cannot possibly extract more tax from the wealthy. There will also be plenty of excuses for our dismal economic performance. I doubt we will call him “Mea Culpa Joe” tomorrow. Maybe he will blame it on Jeff Kennett?
Women are facing a new poverty trap and more inequality under “get out to work” Morrison.
[Poverty trap No. 1: Unemployed and unemployable
The enhanced “earn or learn” activity test to be applied to child care subsidies could lock people out of work permanently – getting a job is challenging enough without doing it with a child on your hip!
So far we know you must work eight hours or more a fortnight to qualify for up to 36 hours of subsidy a fortnight. For this requirement to be waived and access to 24 hours’ care granted regardless, family income must be less than $65,000 – so where a worker earns more than $65,000, a non-worker may find it very difficult to get back into employment. Full details tomorrow night of the “activity test” will be key.
Poverty trap No. 2: Underfunded and un-fundable
The Coalition’s shelved paid parental leave scheme came with one vital change: for the first time parental leave payments would have attracted super. The existing scheme carries no super and employers are not obliged to pay it while you’re on leave either. To make matters worse, there’s no sign the government will resume the scheduled lift in super payments from 9.5 per cent to the more effective 12 per cent.
What’s more, there is a frankly ludicrous $450 monthly income trigger point before an employer has to make a contribution for you. This disproportionately penalises carers phasing back into employment. In a world where we will increasingly need to self-fund our retirement, periods of no- or low-pay greatly deplete super. Women typically retire with just over half the balances of men. And we live longer so have to make them stretch further.]
http://www.theage.com.au/money/planning/forget-your-kids-only-career-and-country-counts-20150511-ggyxjs.html
[Counter-terrorism advisers and Muslim community leaders have raised serious concerns about Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s obsessive use of the phrase “death cult” to describe Islamic State, saying it is counter-productive, ineffective and does some of the terror group’s marketing for them.
Of all the existential threats to the Australian way of life, none seem to have captured the Prime Minister’s attention like the “death cult”, otherwise known as Islamic State, ISIL or ISIS.
An analysis by Fairfax Media of all press releases, transcripts, speeches, interviews and YouTube videos uploaded by the Prime Minister’s Office as well as Hansard reveals that Tony Abbott has used the term “death cult” 346 times since September.
In contrast, domestic violence rated a mention just 43 times in the same period.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/counterterrorism-adviser-abbotts-is-death-cult-label-is-counterproductive-20150511-ggyl4i.html
TBA talking Reagan Bush 1
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
There’s no doubt about it. Singo’s a class act.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/john-singleton-lunch-with-jack-cowin-turns-into-fracas-at-kingsleys-steakhouse-20150511-ggzbgi.html
Abbott’s “death cult” mantra seems to be counterproductive.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/counterterrorism-adviser-abbotts-is-death-cult-label-is-counterproductive-20150511-ggyl4i.html
What drove Abbott to rip into the paid parental leave scheme like this?
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/abbott-government-scales-back-paid-parental-leave-even-though-it-helps-new-mums-and-babies-20150511-ggytww.html
Lisa Bryant says the PPL policy is a failure.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/childcare-package-fails-children-and-families-20150511-ggylg5.html
Abbott is getting a khaki, blue and black “death cult” bauble to play with.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-abbott-government-commits-450m-more-to-fight-local-jihadis-20150511-ggz828.html
Peter Martin – This budget is landing on a wing and a prayer.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-landing-on-a-wing-and-a-prayer-20150511-ggyi3h.html
Peter Hartcher examines the variables in IS recruitment.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lessons-from-india-on-how-to-prevent-is-recruiting-20150511-ggz7xd.html
It’s time the little prick was called out!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/how-news-corp-ended-up-being-the-nations-no1-tax-risk-20150511-ggz1hg.html
Michael West – It’s time the multinationals paid the piper.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-time-for-multinationals-to-pay-the-piper-20150511-ggz3eh.html
Section 2 . . .
Lenore Taylor presages the budget.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/11/budget-2015-devil-is-in-the-detail-but-its-all-rather-blurry
As does Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/weve-had-the-endless-budget-warm-up-now-its-game-on-41625
Ben Eltham – The heat is on the Treasurer.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/05/12/pre-budget-review-where-theres-smoke-theres-treasurer-joe-hockey
It’s open season on public servants – again!
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/its-open-season-on-public-servants–again-20150511-ggymux.html
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-public-service-jobs-in-firing-line-with-more-department-reviews-20150511-ggyjd4.html
An open letter to Joe Hockey from Victoria Rollison.
http://theaimn.com/an-open-letter-to-joe-hockey/
The 28 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/05/11/the-twenty-eight-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-250/
There is a huge “black hole” of unoccupied APS office space.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/empty-office-black-hole-dogs-the-public-service-20150511-ggyusj.html
When it comes to foreign aid Australia is a rich but mean country.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-one-of-the-richest-countries-but-also-one-of-the-meanest-20150511-ggyt3u.html
Section 3 . . .
What have we done to deserve THIS?
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/11/sophie-mirabella-to-seek-liberal-preselection-for-victorian-seat-of-indi
We have Sophie, they have Jeb.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/us-election/jeb-bush-i-would-have-authorised-iraq-invasion-20150511-ggzcl6.html
So much for the “referendum” that Abbott called it!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-keeps-eastwest-link-money-in-locked-box-20150511-ggyqf1.html
Another mongrel priest goes down.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/paedophile-priest-david-rapson-jailed-for-12-years-for-sexually-abusing-students-20150511-ggyt7w.html
And child sexual abuse (and apparent tolerance of it) within the public system.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/11/psychologist-tried-to-hypnotise-boy-before-sexual-abuse-inquiry-hears
Section 4 . . .
This Alan Moir effort is so good I had to link it again.
Ron Tandberg on this year’s unorthodox budget delivery,
David Pope give Abbott a wardrobe malfunction.
Mark Knight has Hockey struggling with the Google tax.
A cruel contribution from David Rowe.
John Kudelka has excelled himself here!
Try this. I got 57 points.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-12/budget-2015-quiz-spending/6396558
Kevin Petersen makes 300 plus but does not expected to be picked for England
http://www.espncricinfo.com/county-cricket-2015/content/story/873991.html
45 points but I forgot to read the question properly which is a mite hypocritical since I exhorted my naplanned daughter to do this morning
Morning all
BK
I did the quiz on the basis of what the perception in the general public would be on expenditure. I got 6/100. 😀
vic
The MSM test!
lizzie
Abbott has done nothing to assist by invoking the “death cult”. I would say he has made matters so much worse, you only have to hear how Daniel Andrews talks about what has been happening here in Melbourne to see how it should be approached. As I have mentioned previously, there were a few big terrorism incidents during the Labor years, but the govt handled very differently to the f wit that is our PM, I so wish he was gone for good
BK
Yep. it proved the point that people think more is being spent in each category than actually is the case
I got 61 but misread the first question. 🙁
victoria
I think I have said several times that Abbott’s aggression and obsession with war and death will lead us somewhere we don’t want to go.
The whole PPL “debate” is so ridiculous. I could handle a discussion about maybe more means testing or even bc of budget need needing to reduce it, or whatever. Although what we have in Aus is ridiculously low, even if u r one of the lucky ones to have an employer scheme u would b lucky to have 6 months of leave paid for. A six month old baby is tiny and would break my heart to put them in childcare, which btw there aren’t places anywhere within 20 km of a major city. Waiting lists are 1-2 years so would have to put ur name down before the wedding??
But what really has made me so angry is the framing. Double dipping, fraud , rorting. All this said about mums who in the past few years were lucky enough to scrape together a few months of maternity leave. Like its a crime! And it works. Just read the comments in lots of articles, why should I subsidise people’s lifestyle choices to rort? I never got anything when my kids were young etc. Purely designed to get people turning against each other, stirring up envy and resentment.
Hockey, Abbott, Morrison, these are all bad bad people. Nothing really more to say about them.
lizzie
Abbott is a poisonous weed that needs to be gotten rid of