BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

Aggregation of poll results continues to record a slow improvement in the Coalition’s position on voting intention, and a much quicker one for Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten on leadership ratings.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate swings back to Labor this week, following an improved but still below par result from Newspoll, and softer results for them from Morgan and Essential Research. Together with the previous week’s strong result for Labor from ReachTEL washing out of the system, the result is a 0.7% move to the Coalition on two-party preferred and an improvement of three on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. With the further addition of Newspoll numbers to the leadership ratings, there’s still no let-up of the emphatic trend in favour of Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten since immediately after the Liberal Party spill vote at the beginning of February, with Abbott now being credited with the lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since October.

Electoral reform news:

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “speculation is rising that the government will attempt to pass measures that would effectively sign the death warrant for micro parties immediately before calling the next election” (while further speculation reported by Laurie Oakes says that election may be rather soon). However, the task of achieving that is said to be complicated by splits in both Labor and the Greens. Among those in the Labor camp raising concerns are Penny Wong, Stephen Conroy, Sam Dastyari and “a number of unions”, who reportedly consider that micro-parties are mostly winning seats at the expense of the Coalition, and believe the proposal to abolish group voting tickets through a move to optional preferential voting would advantage the Greens (although Gary Gray and Alan Griffin, both Labor members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, stand by the committee’s recommendation to that effect). The Greens nonetheless appear divided on both the reform’s likely impact on their prospects, and whether that should be their primary objective in any case. It is said the reform could starve the Greens of preferences required to win seats in Queensland (understandably), South Australia (understandably only for as long as Nick Xenophon’s on the scene) and Western Australia (not understandably, as far as I can see). At the same time, there is concern about how the party membership would react if the party cut a deal with the Coalition, which might involve a compromise of maintaining group voting tickets but imposing a 4% primary vote threshold.

Daniel McCullogh of the Launceston Examiner reports that Labor in Tasmania is grumbling about the state’s quirky Legislative Council system, in which the chamber’s 15 electoral districts face election over a staggered six-year cycle. Labor complains the low-key campaigns result in depressed turnout and an unfair advantage to incumbents. Labor is also unhappy about the tight $15,000 spending caps for Legislative Council elections.

Preselection news:

Sharyn O’Neil of the Morning Bulletin reports that Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor, will again seek Labor preselection in Capricornia, the central Queensland seat where he narrowly failed in a bid to succeed retiring party colleague Kirsten Livermore. The seat has since been held for the Liberal National Party by Michelle Landry, who won the seat by a margin of 0.8%. The report also says Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow had been planning to nominate, but is no longer.

Stephen Smiley from the ABC reports it is generally expected Christine Milne’s resignation as Greens leader yesterday is to be followed in the not too distant future by retirement from the Senate. The leading candidate to fill her vacancy would appear to be Nick McKim, who holds a state seat for Franklin and was the party’s state leader until after the March 2014 election. The best-placed Greens candidate to win McKim’s state seat from recounting of last year’s election looks to be Huon Valley councillor Rosalie Woodruff.

• Labor has preselected Mike Kelly to attempt to recover the seat of Eden-Monaro which he narrowly lost to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy by a margin of 4.8% in 2013, a result that retained the seat’s bellwether status going back to 1972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,436 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 49
1 2 49
  1. [ which he narrowly lost to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy by a margin of WHAT in 2013 ]

    I think everyone said that about the swing in Bathurst a couple of years earlier. 😛

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    I agree with this comment on the new Struggle Street series.
    The Guardian praised it too.
    Joe Hockey must be weeping with envy over the Victorian budget papers.
    Peter FitzSimons sets out to define “sport”.
    This Margaret Cunneen woman seems to be a pest.
    It’s SO easy to avoid issues like this. Proscribe all structured religious activities in public schools.
    Here comes a broadening of the GST net. Can’t argue about it really.
    Looks like Kelly O’Dwyer has had a win for the ABS.
    This is unlikely to get up I’d say.
    Is the NSW government setting out to neuter Clover Moore?–how-local-councils-could-transform-sydney-20150506-ggv3kt.html

  3. Section 2 . . .

    A nice sidewinder for Kevin Andrews from “View from the Street” as the Greens change leaders.
    This is a generational change for the Greens says Michelle Grattan.
    Nick Miller looks at the dysfunctional British voting system.
    A guide to the British elections for non-Brits.
    How Scotland is shaping the general election.,7673
    The 36 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    Is the ATO in a mess or what?
    Would this be too much for Fred Nile?
    Honestly, this man sickens me to the core!
    And Joe de Bruyn is just as bad!,7676

  4. Section 3 . . .

    How to build a fairer housing system.
    Bob Ellis has his say about the 4 Corners revelations.,7676
    This article calls out private schools’ bullshit.
    Ouch! Alan Moir’s depiction of Joe Hockey and his 2015 budget.

    David Pope channels Dr Seuss as the Greens farewell Christine Milne.

    Here’s Mark Knight’s view of the Greens’ leadership changes.

    A less than generous contribution on the matter by Bill Leak.

    This one speaks for itself.

  5. Joe Hockey featuring in the GG today

    [@Kieran_Gilbert: Niki Savva reports in @australian Govt whip Scott Bucholz has delivered colleagues’ feedback to PM – if the budget tanks Hockey has to go]

  6. UK Election update (Wed) election-eve;

    Seven national polls today:

    -Tied race, ICM (phone)
    -Con 1% ahead, ComRes (phone)
    -Con 1% ahead, TNS (online)
    -Con 1% ahead, Opinium (online)
    -Lab 2% ahead, Panelbase (online)
    -Tied race, Survation (online)
    -Tied race, YouGov (online) nb sample size 10,000

    In the Survation poll, a forced-choice question of Lab or Con govt came out at 52-48 to Labour, a bit like your 2PP I thought

    ICM are continuing fieldwork today and will update tomorrow

    Also due tomorrow are Ashcroft and Ipsos-MORI (both phone)

  7. Appears poor Joe is being set up as the scapegoat to walk the plank

    [@Kieran_Gilbert: Further to the Savva report 2 Cabinet Ministers have told me if the budget fails Joe Hockey will have to be replaced as Treasurer]

  8. Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow has since announced her intention to run for Labor preselection in Capricornia.

    Very big chance to come back to Labor next year. The state seat has been Labor since time began, even in Newman’s wipeout. The LNP member must have it by less than 1%

  9. Morning all

    Bludgertrack is showing that the coalition is making up ground. Sigh…..

    Thanks Bk for today’s offerings.

    Ray from UK

    When will the polls open Oz time?

  10. I am very curious to see what Labor’s strategy is re budget reply. I think it is time they ramped up the pressure on Abbott and Co

  11. Let me see if I have this correct from Scott Morrison:-

    – 320,000 part pensioners/pensioners will be worse off under proposed budget changes
    – 170,000 pensioners will be better off under proposed budget changes

    – 60,000 superannuants who have assets in excess of approx $1.5m still pay no tax (based on ALPs proposed super changes)
    – no changes proposed to negative gearing

    Is this government really serious to fix the deficit? Good to see this government is still looking after the wealthy and fcuk the rest.

    Should be walk in park for ALP to have a go at the proposal

  12. Thanks BK for today’s reading.

    [And Joe de Bruyn is just as bad!,7676 ]

    I can’t for the life of me figure out how marriage equality would set back employment rights and entitlements for retail employees. Because that would be the only reason a union leader would speak so stridently on the issue, right?

    And in all the times that winding back penalty rates has come up in public debate I don’t think I’ve ever heard de Bruyn speak on behalf of his members on that front. But same sex marriage comes up and he’s all over it.


  13. I actually think marriage equality helps the economy as well. Wedding parties generate more work and money in the economy. Win win!

  14. On the good news front, this program by Labour in Melbourne to remove level crossings is a great idea. For a fraction of the cost of EW Link they will save people more time, and employ just as many people in construction.

    So why do we do the billion dollar toll roads that no longer pay for themselves? Well, its hard for a finance company to hide a $1.2 billion success fee in an $80 million project budget. There is no room for carpetbaggers in these smaller projects.

  15. So if the Budget ‘tanks’ it will all be Joe’s fault and Abbott will throw him to the winds and save himself.

    That hand on the arm in the staged ‘preparing for the budget’ pic now has me remembering the Judas kiss.

  16. Socrates

    Getting rid of these level crossings is a no brainer. I actually live in a section of Melbourne that has both of the closest stations under and over roads. It makes the area so much more user friendly. As soon as i find myself in an area that has boomgates, the traffic is a mess.

  17. On the Bludger track, the trend is concerning for Labor, despite the evident inability of Abbott and Hockey to run the country. Union officials like de Bruyn do not help. First they remind voters that unions that are NOT representative of more than 80% of workers still run the Labor Party. That does not help in a democracy, because it is plainly undemocratic. Second, they have nutty right wing ideas that do not sell to the majority of centre and left voters.

    De Bruyn will not win Labor one vote with that irrational linking of marriage equality and workers rights. Confessions is right – it makes no sense. Nor will the fundy right wingers it might appeal to vote Labor anyway. Meanwhile a lot of young people and centrists will be put off, costing votes.

    Surely as a matter of party discipline, de Bruyn should be censured for speaking against policy? He also needs to get a better neurologist.

  18. Socrates

    The “Victory Day” parades didn’t stop. It is just that this is the 70th anniversary “The Great Patriotic War” so they are making a lot more of a fuss over it.

  19. Victoria

    Yes the level crossings were mostly taken out in Sydney and Brisbane back in the 80s. A few have been done here in Adelaide too, and in each case it was a big improvement. There is also a large safety benefit. There was a terrible accident here at a level crossing in Salisbury.

  20. I actually fell asleep watching Struggle Street, only to wake up in the middle of some German reality TV show which looked like a fully naked, beachside version of the Bachelor except with two women competing for the guy.

    Is this where we’ve gotten to? No wonder I rarely watch TV!

  21. Poroti

    I can understand the parade in the 70 years context, but why all the new weapons? To me that says “rearming”.

  22. [that has both of the closest stations under and over roads. It makes the area so much more user friendly.]

    Exhibit A: Subiaco. They sunk the rail line underground, allowing for mixed residential, commercial and public open space development.

  23. Socrates

    They decided on widespread modernisation quite a while ago when relations with the West were better. Much of their stuff was clapped out Soviet era kit and falling to bits . The Chechens for instance showed them how decrepid their military was ,personnel and equipment.

    So largely modernisation but their paranoia about Nato/US intentions would have pushed it along harder adding a “rearming” element. Especially when it came to keeping the money flowing for it.

  24. zoom

    Lee Rhiannon said she didn’t know a leadership spill was happening until she was in the room.

    It was not actually a ‘spill’. Milne resigned.

    And ‘Lee Rhiannon said she didn’t know a leadership spill was happening until she was in the room’ – She wouldn’t know that her underpants were on fire.

  25. WTF!

    After printing Trillions of dollars of QE which flowed into the stockmarket since 2009 and having a zero interest rate policy for 6 years, (which punished those who saved) – aimed at boosting stock prices – the FED now belatedly observes that prices are *quite high* and there are dangers….

    [ WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday pointed to high valuations in the stock market and said the central bank needs to keep close tabs on the non-bank lending sector.

    “I would highlight that equity market valuations at this point generally are quite high,” Yellen said. “There are potential dangers there.” ]

  26. victoria

    Really, wonder if I can watch ABC coverage online. BBC are a bit ropey these days, and as for Sky-Fox no thanks

  27. Apparently it was not a secret that Milne was ‘doing a Bob Brown’ and standing down well before the next election. Therefore to say that there were no discussions at all on leadership would be stretching it.

    Speaking to Sales last night, Di Natale said that he had discussed the leadership with Adam Bandt, who was very happy to concentrate his energies on retaining Melbourne and increasing the Victoria representation. It was Bandt behind the campaign strategy for the last election.

  28. [ Capital Controls Hit Greek Banks: FX Trading Curbed As Credit Lines Cut

    While officials have begun their own versions of capital controls by raiding pension funds, confiscating local government cash, and surcharges on withdrawals (and transfer ceilings); it appears the market participants themselves have now imposed their own share of capital controls.

    As Bloomberg reports, international securities firms are curtailing trading with major Greek banks – pulling credit lines and restricting FX trading limits – as fear of Grexit looms. ]

  29. CTar1

    Skyfox as I call them didn’t used to be too bad, but they went full-muppet in 2010.

    There was a classic scene with a reporter on Westminster Green talking to some pol when word come through that Gordon was going to try and stay on (negotiate with LibDems). The reporter started fiddling with his earpiece and shrieking out “the pound is crashing, the pounds crashing, the markets don’t like that”.

    I’d never seen anything like it

  30. Confessions

    [I actually fell asleep watching Struggle Street, only to wake up in the middle of some German reality TV show which looked like a fully naked, beachside version of the Bachelor except with two women competing for the guy.]

    Sounds awful! What channel was that again?

  31. [ Germanwings Co-Pilot May Have Tried To Crash Previous Flight

    Germanwings co-pilot who deliberately crashed an Airbus A320 carrying 150 people into the French Alps in March after locking the pilot out of the cockpit, may have rehearsed the tragedy the very same day on the outbound flight from Düsseldorf to Barcelona.

    …..Lubitz put the flight into a controlled descent on several occasions, selecting an altitude of 100 ft during times when the audio from the voice recorder suggests the Captain had left the cockpit. ]

  32. [which might involve a compromise of maintaining group voting tickets but imposing a 4% primary vote threshold.]

    Worst possible outcome.

    Lets be clear: group voting tickets are the PROBLEM here. Without them, we’ll have a system decided by VOTERS, instead of by HACKS, like nature intended.

    Without them, micro parties wont be randomly elected in a preference ponzi scheme.

    without them, major party voters will no longer elect a minor party candidate they would oppose if asked.

    Without them, minor parties will still get preferences, but only from VOTERS.

    Without them, they’ll need some VOTER SUPPORT.

    All this is good. Group voting tickets are the ONLY problem here.

  33. [Socrates
    Posted Thursday, May 7, 2015 at 8:06 am | PERMALINK
    On the Bludger track, the trend is concerning for Labor

    I agree. But the real concern for the Liberals is that this could well be as good as it gets for them. They did enormous damage to themselves with last year’s budget, a lot of which would have made an indelible impression on the minds of a lot of people (hence the 5.2% swing away from them since the last election on current polling). So the big question is, how many of those people will be prepared to trust this government again?

    Make no mistake, the Liberals are in trouble and they know it. Hence the furious back pedalling on just about everything. When they start pedalling forward again – and only then – will we have a clearer idea of what their real chances of survival are.

  34. Darn

    It seems the Libs are back pedalling on their back pedalling. I no longer have any idea what they will do next.

    Coalition voters must be supporting them on blind faith or else they simply don’t care.

Comments Page 1 of 49
1 2 49

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *