Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, all of them featuring leadership ratings as well as voting intention. As was widely noted, there was a big gap between the results from Newspoll and Ipsos, which has contributed to something of a two-track trend in polling, with one clump of results around 54-46 (Ipsos and ReachTEL) and another around 51-49 (two Newspolls and a bias-adjusted Roy Morgan). The middle ground plotted by BludgerTrack now has Labor’s two-party vote down to 51.9% – only a small change on last week, but enough to shift two seats on the seat projection, including one in New South Wales (which has done a lot of the heavy lifting in the recent Coalition poll recovery) and one in Victoria.
Leadership ratings are starting to look increasingly alarming for Bill Shorten, whose net approval has dropped a full 10% from the stasis it was in through most of 2014. Tony Abbott has now recovered to where he was before Australia Day, and while that’s still a bad position in absolute terms, the gap between himself and Shorten is rapidly narrowing. The same goes for preferred prime minister, on which Shorten’s double-digit lead after Australia Day has narrowed to about 3%.
Two polls warranting comment:
• I neglected to cover this on Tuesday, so let the record note that this week’s Essential Research result ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s lead at 52-48. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were monthly personal ratings, which found Tony Abbott up two on approval to 31% and down five on disapproval to 56%, Bill Shorten up one on both to 34% and 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 39-31 to 37-33. Other questions related to asylum seekers, with 43% nominating that most were not genuine refugees versus 32% who said otherwise. However, a separate question found 49% allowing that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay if found to be genuine refugees. The government’s approach was deemed too tough by 22%, too soft by 27% and just right by 34%. In response to Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus leaving the Palmer United Party, 41% said those in their position should leave parliament and allow a new election to be held for their seat, with 19% favouring a new member nominated by the party and 24% saying they should be allowed to remain in parliament.
• Roy Morgan has published one of its semi-regular rounds of SMS state polling, finding the newly elected Coalition ahead by 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales, and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s newly elected Queensland government up by 52.5-47.5, after last month’s result and the weekend’s Galaxy poll both had it lineball. Labor governments are credited with leads of 54-46 in Victoria and 51-49 in South Australia, while it’s 50-50 in Western Australia. A 56-44 lead to Labor is recorded in Tasmania, which is more than a little hard to credit.
Preselection news:
• Murray Watt is set to win preselection for Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket after securing the endorsement of the Left faction at the expense of incumbent Jan McLucas, who entered parliament in 1999. Susan McDonald of the ABC reports that Watt’s position will likely be at the top of the ticket, reflecting the Left’s new-found ascendancy within the Queensland Labor organisation.
• It’s a similar story in the lower house Brisbane seat of Oxley, where Labor’s Bernie Ripoll has announced his retirement following reports he stood to lose preselection in any case to Milton Dick, Brisbane City Council opposition leader.
• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section recently offered details on the Labor preselection in the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, which has been won by Tony Clarke, manager of Vision Australia and unsuccessful state election candidate for Ringwood. His main opponent was Mike Symon, who won the seat for Labor in 2007 and 2010 before being unseated by current Liberal member Michael Sukkar in 2013. Symon narrowly defeated Clarke in the local party ballot, but this was overwhelmed by support for Clarke in the 50% of the vote determined by the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee. It was reported in Crikey that the Left abstained from the POSC vote, as it wished to let “the Right factions fight out between themselves”. For more on Deakin, see today’s Seat of the Week post.
tpof
Faery Tale for the Cynical.
At the Victorian Manor-House, the peasants are chering.
The renovations may have delivered a nice basket of apples to select folk who were set to share the huge sweet sugar-sprinkled apple pie with friends and flunkies.
But the new Estate manager has ruled out new super-dooper bridge over the duck pond,to link the stables to the chook-shed. Instead he wants to renovate the paths to the cottakes.
So the apple trres did not fruit.
The Chief Flunkie is in a huge sulk because the plates will be empty.
The New Estate Manager tells TCF to suck it up.
The End.
sorry for typos. the dogs damaged my keyboard.
chering cheering
tress trees
cottakes cottages
Puffy
Of course there is that aspect, but abbott must see some votes in it too
victoria
I think he thinks (!) that he’ll gain support from the notion that the Link was shovel-ready and therefore there would be an immediate increase in jobs. For shovels?
guytaur
I am very pleased that Michelle has got over her love affair with Tony.
victoria
Depends what sings the most, votes or apples. One can always rely on Snoopert to herd in the votes.
Puffy
As opposed to the dog eating my homework. 😀
Puffy
Snoopert obviously failed in Victoria and Qld
BB,
Your #79 comment sums up my position on KK nicely.
I would have thought someone who has cultivated his public profile would have a professional policy of no endorsements as a matter of principle.
Steve777
[The ads themselves are non-political]
I disagree. 99% of the content is apolitical, but it is framed by the remaining 1% in a way that suits this government.
Did Abbott really say this today?
Abbott: “I think the Andrews Gov might be dead.” for not breaking/delivering their election promise #auspol #springst
Side note – this is not what I consider to be the political bit – there was a curious emphasis on roads when talking about infrastructure :P.
Question
Me too
But I guess Dr K thought his work had built up a bit of goodwill and respect and naively believed that nobody would want to take advantage of him.
Welcome to Tory world Dr K.
And somebody mentioned Cosgrove’s beer ads the other day. I don’t watch much TV so I ask are they still running? I thought it was a bit off when he did them, no matter what the cause. they would be more inappropriate now he is GG.
On K personally, well he’s done the right thing, belatedly, and I don’t think we can complain about the extra attention being called to the political nature of the IGR.
Jobless rate drops
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/jobless-rate-falls-in-march-taking-pressure-off-reserve-bank-to-cut-rates-20150416-1mm5rj.html
Puff
That dog must come around my place at night when I am asleep.
The dog knocked some keys off the laptop. I had to attach an external keyboard via usb. Actually it was two pups, chasing each other around the room.
Dr Karl deserves a lot of credit for donating the money he earned from the IGR advertising campaign to under-resourced schools. His admirers were upset precisely because they know him as a person of extraordinary intellect, curiosity, learning, and rigour. His participation in the IGR campaign was a bewildering departure from those traits. He has apologized for the error and will resume his sterling work as a communicator of science.
The Napthine Government WAS untrustworthy in its dealings with the private sector. That’s the mess the Andrews Government is trying to clean up.
Victoria @ 103
[but abbott must see some votes in it too]
You are from Victoria, so you are closer to the action. Can you see anyone more likely to vote Liberal at the 2016 election as a result? Anyone else from Victoria?
Either these guys are fiendishly clever or they lack basic political judgement for governing in the 21st century. On the basis of everything they have done in the last 18 months, my money would be very firmly on the latter.
For a bit of fun:
The Daily Telegraph Headline Generator
http://thesauce.co/telegraph_generator/
Nicholas @ 119
What does the average voter understand about sovereign risk?
The only take-out I can see is that a clear message has been sent to potential contractors is that you don’t do secret back-room deals with a Government and expect to have those deals honoured by the incoming government which made clear at the time the contracts were signed that it would refuse to do so.
Any contractor scared off by that kind of sovereign risk is not the kind you would want putting money into Australia in the first place.
rossmcg@23
Sounds like he is front running a budget announcement…
Puff
Two dogs? puppies? C’mon, you need to do better than that …
Maybe there is a business opportunity here. Marketing excuses on the net.
What can one say?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-16/texas-police-investigating-alleged-ritual-starving-death-toddler/6396930
TPOF
I don’t listen to talkback radio, but my opinion is that if a quiet, unassuming and hardly known chap like Daniel Andrews won against all the loud Liberal barracking, he has won the right to keep his promises.
Abbott is off his tree.
victoria
[Did Abbott really say this today?
Abbott: “I think the Andrews Gov might be dead.” ]
Yes, he did. But also:
[Mr Abbott said the decision to dump the road project was “absolutely crazy”, although he promised not to “dud” Victorians by denying the state funding for other projects.
“The last thing I want to do … is dud the people of Victoria. Daniel Andrews dudded the people of Victoria yesterday by not going ahead with this vital piece of infrastructure. I’m happy to keep talking to the Victorian government about other infrastructure projects of national significance but the problem with the only one he has mentioned so far {the Metro Rail Project} is that it won’t start for three years.”
…
“I say to the people who are stuck in traffic jams every morning, every evening most weekends in Hoddle Street, Flemington Road, Alexandra Parade, do you think East West Link is dead? Of course you don’t because you know that all vehicles need to get moving and the only way to get your vehicles moving to save you time, to cut out 23 sets of traffic lights, to save you 20 minutes – that’s just with stage one of East West Link, is to get this road built.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-andrews-government-dead-over-axing-predicts-tony-abbott-20150416-1mm8n0.html
Fascinating. Would a microwave also act like a faraday cage?
http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/consumer-security/why-keeping-your-keys-in-the-freezer-can-stop-thieves-breaking-into-your-car-20150415-1mm25p.html
Lizzie
So we can look forward to the Vic Libs promising at the 2018 election to revive east-west. That will be interesting
Why is Abbott still banging on about the East West Link? Maybe there are lots of Liberal mates who were put out who want there pound of flesh (or at least their billions).
rossmcg
Especially as the residents who have not yet sold their properties have been invited to move back!
Pistols at dawn!!
[The spat over GST has turned ugly as Western Australia Premier Colin Barnett says his state’s assistance during Black Saturday is a reason Victoria should not oppose a freeze to the west’s GST share.
The comments have enraged Victoria’s Premier Daniel Andrews who is calling for an immediate apology.
Ahead of the Council of Australian Governments in Canberra, Mr Barnett has been campaigning for a freeze in the state’s GST share, which is due to drop to a return of 30 cents for every dollar collected.
Victoria has attacked the freeze, with Mr Andrews recently accusing the WA government of spending like “drunken sailors”.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/gst-barnett-invokes-black-saturday-help-20150416-1mmaym.html
[Victoria has attacked the freeze, with Mr Andrews recently accusing the WA government of spending like “drunken sailors”.]
Better still, spending like a Peter Costello!
[ The litmus test for Abbott is the budget. If his political fortunes dont improve after budget, then it may well be on. ]
Agreed. Which makes the report in the DT today seem a bit bizarre to me even though its confusing.
It states:
[ TONY Abbott has ruled out any changes to superannuation in this term of government or beyond, ]
but then also says:
[ “Unlike Labor we have no plans to increase taxes on superannuation and will honour our commitment not to make any adverse or unexpected changes to superannuation during this term,” ]
So i dont know where they get the idea that there Abbott has committed to no changes:
[ in this term of government or beyond, ]
Still, it does cut them off from plucking that piece of low hanging revenue fruit in this budget or the next. They will have to campaign on it during an election when the budget is likely to be in an even WORSE state partly because THEY haven’t done what is obviously NEEDING to be done in a timely fashion.
And just WTF does it leave them with for the 2015 / 16 budgets?
Its looking to me that more and more the 2015 budget is going to be heavily reliant on pushing the measures from 2014 that were so toxic, and will be, again, focused on spending cuts rather than revenue measures.
Its all shaping up that the BIG issue the Coalition will be pushing is an increase in, and broadening the base of, the GST. Which is just soooooooo easily spun as shifting the tax burden further towards consumers and away from business.
Or if you like, onto the common folk and away from their donors.
With so much else they could do before there is any reason to go there its not a good strategic direction to be headed in and gives the ALP some pretty good ground to operate from.
Re Lizzie @132: a bit like Abbott’s reminding Indonesia of Australia’s tsunami relief aid, and likely to be about as effective.
There’s be more sympathy for WA if they weren’t so full of themselves when they are economically stronger.
Barnett’s comments today are similar to those made by Abbott regarding aid money to Indonesia after the Tsunami.
Perhaps if WA were prepared to reform some of their lifestyle choices like shopping hours, abolition of The Potato marketing Board and Other similar organisations and maybe introduce daylight savings to bring them closer to the Eastern States, they might get a more sympathetic hearing.
What a great presser from Shorten and Mcternan.
Really throwing the gauntlet down to Abbott. A surprise to me was that 24 stayed for the whole presser. All ten to 15 minutes of it.
128
Leaving them in the microwave creates the risk that they will accidentally get microwaved. Not good for either device and a potential fire hazard.
[ There’s be more sympathy for WA if they weren’t so full of themselves when they are economically stronger. ]
I’m in W.A. GG and i dont have a lot of sympathy for Barnett’s position.
But, they have been good at pushing the simplistic messaging side of their campaign.
I have my suspicions that this may actually a somewhat coordinated push with the Feds to get changes, any kind of changes, to the GST to be seen as active and urgent. Once that’s on the table then much talk of “growing the pie rather than just your slice of it” and the importance of a national conversation.
All bullshit to push the Feds agenda to shift more revenue reliance onto the GST.
All positions on the Minister’s Council on Asylum Seekers and Detention, a body set up to provide independent advice to the immigration minister on “policies, processes, services and programs” for asylum seekers and those held in immigration detention, have been vacant since December 2014, when the terms of the members ended.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/16/governments-council-of-asylum-seeker-advisers-has-stood-empty-for-five-months?CMP=ema_632
The Council will be reworked with a “new composition” by the federal government, no doubt to be filled with ‘yes men’ (or maybe ‘yes persons’). The last thing they want is any truly independent advice, or anyone who wants to look too closely.
I don’t think that stray dogs would be at the high point of asylums seekers’ concern 😆
[The Abbott government’s “fact sheet”, handed to asylum seekers in the Nauru detention centre and refugees living on Nauru by immigration officials, talks up Cambodia as a secure and harmonious society with a cheap cost of living.
“Cambodia is a safe country, where police maintain law and order. It does not have problems with stray dogs,” the five-page pamphlet notes.
The Australian government’s description jars with the most recent security appraisal of Cambodia by the US State Department.
“Cambodia has a high crime rate, including street crime. Military weapons and explosives are readily available to criminals despite authorities’ efforts to collect and destroy such weapons. Armed robberies occur frequently, and foreign residents and visitors, including US citizens, are among the victims,” the State Department notes.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/safe-and-inexpensive-government-spruiks-relocation-from-nauru-to-cambodia-in-fact-sheet-to-asylum-seekers-20150416-1mm7zy.html
120
TPOF
Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 12:16 pm | PERMALINK
Victoria @ 103
TPOF
[but abbott must see some votes in it too]
[You are from Victoria, so you are closer to the action. Can you see anyone more likely to vote Liberal at the 2016 election as a result? Anyone else from Victoria?
Either these guys are fiendishly clever or they lack basic political judgement for governing in the 21st century. On the basis of everything they have done in the last 18 months, my money would be very firmly on the latter.]
Unemployment has actually gone up here in Victoria. Could simply be Abbott finding cover by suggesting that east west was shovel ready and these jobs have now been lost
TTFAB re 128/138
That doesn’t answer the question about the faraday cage.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/shipbuilding-review-excluded-navy-submarines/story-e6frg8yo-1227306167493
So back in September 2014:
[ He said the government had advised Rand when it was contracted in September last year that the future submarines would be built offshore and then modified in Australia. ]
So Abbott is a lying liar who lies. Who’d a thunk it?? 🙁
He must hate hearing about subs by now.
Shorten is doing the one off payment solution some here have mentioned.
He talked about the frifecta of economic disaster for WA.
Barnett’s mismanagement of the economy.
Abbotts cuts to state funding of things like public hospitals.
Iron Ore prices falling off a cliff.
Transition policies from Barnett lacking being big criticism of economic management. It also applies to Abbott.
Not an east v west problem but an economic management one.
143
It would likely work as a Faraday cage, except when the keys are taken out for the microwave to be used as a microwave, and stop your car getting stolen but you may have to live in said car if the microwave accidentally gets used with the keys in and sets your house on fire.
I non-functioning microwave, with its Faraday cage intact, should theoretically work fine though.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-16/nt-country-liberals-use-leadership-instability-to-attack-lawrie/6397494
Pot, kettle, black?
Part of Barnett’s problems is that he talked a tough game on the economy but rarely delivered it.
I can remember plenty of times over the last six years when he and treasurers Buswell and then Porter got up and talked up their tough stand on spending and hiring public servants.
And then months later the figures would come out and we would find nothing had happened. The departments kept hiring, or using consultants.
There have been a few ill advised infrastructure forays, not least the new stadium.
The gallop and carpenter governments spent years on stadium feasibility studies and after all that, and dealing with all the vested interests, agreement had been pretty well reached in 2008 that the best option was a redevelopment of Subiaco Oval and we were pretty much set to go.
Barnett became premier, threw the stadium feasibility report in the bottom drawer without, according to reports, having read it. A couple of years later after a meeting with James Packer he endorsed the third of two options and decided to build the stadium next to Packers casino.
The delays and and change of plan have probably cost many hundreds of millions.
And all because of the Emporer’s ego.
lizzie
[ That doesn’t answer the question about the faraday cage. ]
Yes, a microwave oven is a faraday cage, but not a very good one. It is designed primarily to shield against radiation of microwave frequencies, and will not completely stop other frequencies, such as those used by a mobile phones – some people report their phones will still work even in a microwave.
Whether it will work with car keyless entry fobs depends on the frequencies they use – but chances are it will work well enough to prevent the “amplifier” trick working.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/04/16/tips-and-rumours-1348/
LOL