Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Respondents don’t expect Tony Abbott to make it to the next election, remain strongly opposed to a GST increase, and are effectively unchanged on voting intention since last week.

The regular Essential Research fortnightly average is our only new federal poll for the week, and it finds Labor losing one of the two points it gained last time to record a two-party lead of 53-47. Primary votes are 40% for Labor (down one), 40% for the Coalition (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 1% for what’s left of Palmer United (steady). The poll finds only 26% deeming it likely Tony Abbott will make it to the next election with 57% opting for unlikely, with wide partisan differences along the expected lines. With respect to tax reform, strong majorities are recorded in favour of measures hitting multinational corporations and high-income earners, while fierce hostility remains to expanding or increasing the GST. However, it’s lineball on removing negative gearing, which 33% support and 30% oppose. Questions on economic and financial issues get the usual set of grumpy responses, with a balance of belief in favour of company profits having improved, but every personal and national indicator deemed to have gotten worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

630 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. zoid

    [you can’t always blame a male doing domestic violence]

    If he’s doing the violence, you can.

    Anyone hitting anyone for any reason is inexcusable.

  2. [396
    Jolyon Wagg]

    It was certainly very intense. Maybe this is just recollecting the intensity of youth; maybe politics was just much more impassioned, back in the day.

    The feelings I had – though I think I didn’t know their names at the time – were betrayal and dispossession. Fraser betrayed democracy and stole from us. It took decades for my anger to subside. I think it’s still on sentry duty with its natural companion, mistrust. That’s what Fraser gave me. Anger and mistrust. I can still hear the roar of that day.

  3. Zoidlord
    [Considering my brother is going through a violent divorce you can’t always blame a male doing domestic violence, sometimes it’s about money and his ex-wife wants for child support.]

    Domestic violence is inexcusable regardless of the circumstance.

  4. Steve777@400

    I am not at all clear why it was up to the Premier or anyone else in the Queensland Parliament or political establishment to take Mr Gordon’s ex-partner’s allegations to the police. Surely the approriate course of action on receiving the letter would have been to recommend to the lady that she take the matter to the police, while giving her contact details of appropriate counselling and/or legal services. Meanwhile, the Premier should follow up with Mr Gordon, which she has done.

    If the lady has been the victim of violence, that is deplorable and the perpetrator should be subject to the full force of the law, regardless ofthe political implications. But this whole thing stinks of an ‘Ashby-gate’ style conspiracy.

    The LNP themselves are abusing this lady. They have take the power away from her abd are subjecting her to consequences via the media hyenas to consequences out of her controlled, she has been depowered, used and abused by the LNP and that newspaper.

    I would call that Social Violence.

  5. @Wagg/406

    I’m not saying my brother is doing domestic violence, it’s his wife that is doing it, but yes, you are correct.

    Especially when kids are involved, and the court continue to screw up paperwork.

  6. zoom and JW

    I read zoid’s post as an inelegant way of saying that you cannot always assume that an allegation of DV is true and that the male is the perpetrator. I could be wrong, in which case I agree with you that violence in response to any personal situation is unacceptable (which is why there are criminal laws against it).

    I await clarification by zoid.

  7. A reading of the transcript of last week’s resumption of the Senate hearing reveals, unsurprisingly, that Senators MacDonald and Sullivan set out to provoke Triggs and her staff.

  8. Live on News 24 Now…
    News conference from ASADA…. they are going to appeal and go hard on Essendon.. on ABC news 24 right now.

    The ASADA Boss is in there swinging some big blows…. it will be on

  9. [A reading of the transcript of last week’s resumption of the Senate hearing reveals, unsurprisingly, that Senators MacDonald and Sullivan set out to provoke Triggs and her staff.]

    The are scum who should live in the PNG detention centre for a decade.

  10. in relation to the Gordon matter, it probably makes no difference whether the partner went to the LNP orv the police. Are they not basically one organisation in queensland?

  11. [in relation to the Gordon matter, it probably makes no difference whether the partner went to the LNP orv the police. Are they not basically one organisation in queensland?]

    Yeah but the LNP actually calls the shots!

  12. Steve777

    Anyone can take an allegation of a crime to the police. Even though we talk about ‘victims’, even a crime with an identifiable victim is technically a crime against the state. That is why prosecutions are brought by the state.

    That said, it is most appropriate for the alleged victim in these kinds of cases to lay the complaint, as he or she can be interviewed immediately and is best placed to give the necessary information that enables a decision on whether further investigation is warranted.

    In this case, the first response of the Labor officials was to deal with those matters it could deal with (persuading Gordon to fix the child support payment problem) and tell the complainant to go to the police. It was only after the Opposition made this a political issue that the Government was required to do make the political response, which was to refer it to the police. Whatever the morality of holding out (because it appeared to be a political set-up Ashby style) it was politically necessary to be seen to be doing everything possible to resolve the matter.

    I have no idea at all about whether some or all of the allegations against Gordon are true. That is for the police to judge. My view of the political situation is at 398.

  13. Briefly,
    [It was certainly very intense. Maybe this is just recollecting the intensity of youth; maybe politics was just much more impassioned, back in the day.

    The feelings I had – though I think I didn’t know their names at the time – were betrayal and dispossession. Fraser betrayed democracy and stole from us. It took decades for my anger to subside. I think it’s still on sentry duty with its natural companion, mistrust. That’s what Fraser gave me. Anger and mistrust. I can still hear the roar of that day.]

    Agree totally. I suspect that the passion of the day for many of us had its roots in 1975. I still felt a flicker of the old anger when those events were reviewed on Fraser’s death.

  14. Zoidlord

    [I’m not saying my brother is doing domestic violence, it’s his wife that is doing it, but yes, you are correct.

    Especially when kids are involved, and the court continue to screw up paperwork.]

    Relieved to hear that is what you meant. It did seem out of character from your usual posts. I hope the family court gets it right in your brother’s case.

  15. Joylan Wagg
    It was more than a flicker. It reminded me why I would never trust a Lib farther than my dog can spit.

  16. wwp @ 413

    [The are scum who should live in the PNG detention centre for a decade.]

    I’m sure that one week will be sufficient to make a lifelong point.

    Because I’m a great believer in the constitution and the rule of law, it makes me sick to the stomach to think about how Abbott and co have absolutely trashed these values, which they are required to support and have sworn to support, in order to gain tawdry political benefit.

    The Basikbasik matter, in particular, is disgusting. We have a justice system that provides for sentences for people who commit crimes and a process for freeing those people (preferably with rehabilitation) once the sentence has been served.

    There is a serious problem where someone who has served their sentence, no matter how heinous the crime, remains in detention with no prospect of release. That is the problem that Gillian Triggs was asked to address. It goes to the basic rights of us all. By trashing Triggs’s report on the basis of what the complainant has done, appealing to the lynch mob rather than the rule of law, is so far below decency in our Attorney-General and our Prime Minister as to be close to criminal in itself in my mind.

  17. victoria @365:

    [The Liberal National Party frontbencher defeated at the Queensland election by disgraced Labor MP Billy ­Gordon was behind the initial complaint that has pushed the Labor minority government to the brink of collapse.

    Ousted LNP MP David Kempton, who lost the Cape York seat of Cook, helped Mr Gordon’s former partner make a complaint about unpaid child support in the days after the January 31 state election that brought Labor to power.

    The revelation comes as key independent MP and Speaker Peter Wellington said yesterday the ensuing scandal, which also involves allegations Mr Gordon bashed the woman, was being used by the LNP in an “orchestrated attempt to bring down the government’’.

    Mr Kempton was the first of three current or former LNP MPs to have had close contact with Mr Gordon’s former longtime partner and mother of two of his children in the weeks leading up to the allegation being sent to Premier Annastacia ­Palaszczuk and gradually leaked to the media.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/lnp-mp-david-kempton-behind-billy-gordon-claims/story-e6frgczx-1227286943162 ]

    “If I can’t have my seat, you can’t either”, huh?

  18. Jeffmu @ 412

    More power to ASADA. Most people I have spoken to about the verdict were surprised when told that the reason why the judgement was made was on the basis of ‘insufficient evidence’.

    Hird provided a huge clue this morning when he (in error or otherwise) more or less mentioned that that the players were administered ‘something’

  19. Puff @407:

    [The LNP themselves are abusing this lady. They have take the power away from her abd are subjecting her to consequences via the media hyenas to consequences out of her controlled, she has been depowered, used and abused by the LNP and that newspaper.

    I would call that Social Violence.]

    Not to mention that they’re using her in ways that she did not consent to be used. If all they’d done was provide contact details and keep tabs on her afterward to see if she followed up, that’d be OK.

    What did they do? Turn it into a three-ring circus.

  20. Matt @ 429

    [Not to mention that they’re using her in ways that she did not consent to be used]

    We don’t even know that. From here it looks as though she has been extremely cooperative with the LNP.

  21. [
    Looking at the Guardian video, I’m now sure this is April Fools.
    ]

    Of course it is. It will be a cold day in hell before Clarkson campaigns for lower speed limits.

    [
    He plans to boost the campaign by founding a charity to garner support for a 20mph speed limit on most British roads, rising to 45mph on motorways and dual carriageways.
    ]

  22. I might have missed discussion on this before, but I have only just come across it.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mark-latham-sued-for-defamation-by-lisa-pryor-20150330-1mb9jg.html

    Is the only remedy in this situation for someone to launch a defamation action? Pryor had many public figures rallying to her cause and attacking Latham. I too found his opinions on this subject obnoxious and hypocritical (not every unemployed dad at home gets an $80k per annum to make the experience such an enjoyable one). I also thought his sneer at Pryor at the end of the article that she was a “coward” was very ungentlemanly and ad hominem: really, the AFR editorial folks would have done well to take that sentence out. Maybe the “coward” comment, and the description of left feminism as akin to a “psychoneurotic disorder” enough to make it defamatory: the court will decide. But, if the court decides that it was, then I reckon that is a rather unfortunate outcome in terms of free speech.

    Ironically (or am I veering too close to the Morrisette use of the word?). Let’s say…Intersetingly, Pryor is married to Julian Morrow who, as one of the Chaser team, was responsible for the Chris Kenny outrage a while back. And I distinctly recall Latham going into print about that subject and being staunchly behind the Chasers and suggesting that Kenny was unable to get a joke.

    I’m not really happy about all these defamation actions.

  23. Datamining into the Essential poll actually makes things look worse for the Coalition: many more people think that not only has their personal financial situation gotten worse since Abbott became PM, but that the economy’s gotten worse, too.

    Given that the Liberal Party traditionally enjoys a (wholly unearned) reputation as being superior to Labor on economic questions, the understanding that the economy’s doing poorly under a Coalition Government can only damage the Coalition’s vote, as people who support the Coalition for economic (as opposed to personal financial) reasons reconsider their votes.

    And blaming the prior Government, which is the only halfway-coherent answer Tony Abbott’s offered, can only take you so far.

  24. There are reports that a mobile phone video taken by a passanger from inside the doomed Germanwings flight has been found. The video has not been made public (and should never be), but descriptions of its contents have been given on CNN.

  25. TPOF @430:

    [We don’t even know that. From here it looks as though she has been extremely cooperative with the LNP.]

    Pardon me for asking, but how do we know that?

  26. That ASADA press conference confirms what I’ve long suspected about this federal government, it doesn’t like hiring smart operators.

    -Doesn’t see any reason for a review of the processes behind the running of case
    -On one hand claims Essendon players were injected with certain things, then says he doesn’t know what they were injected with
    -Mentions Essendon’s poor corporate governance (Essendon has already been fined $2 million for that)
    -Claims that the case was complex, but earlier mentioned that the tribunal found the case confronting
    -Doesn’t know how much the case has cost the taxpayer

    I could go on and on, this government surely knows how to hire these dills and one other thing if he is so out there to clean sport up, has Serena Williams received a show cause notice for having a coffee which helped her perk up after she lst the first set of a match.

    No, didn’t think so.

  27. MB @ 432

    [I’m not really happy about all these defamation actions.]

    It’s what those who are born to rule want. Ne empowerment of those who cannot afford to bring a defamation action, especially against someone with deep pockets, like you would get in the human rights act. Only those who have valuable ‘property’ in their reputations should be allowed to get the benefit of the law.

    In this case, though, my own sense is that Ms Pryor was seeking some sort of settlement (possibly without financial compensation, and Latham refused to back down). In this instance, bringing a defamation suit is the only way under the current law to actually get some sort of public vindication.

  28. Victoria

    Yes they are thinking about it.

    The cynic in me remembers that the budget is soon.

    After two years of investigation they should have been able to nail the case, they didn’t and can’t even recognise the potential need for a review of their processes.

  29. TPOF:

    In this case, though, my own sense is that Ms Pryor was seeking some sort of settlement (possibly without financial compensation, and Latham refused to back down). In this instance, bringing a defamation suit is the only way under the current law to actually get some sort of public vindication.

    This sounds right. From yesterday’s Crikey:

    The case follows a failure to “resolve matters directly”, Pryor wrote on Twitter yesterday. In November, Pryor approached Australian Financial Review editor-in-chief Michael Stutchbury wanting a printed apology after a column she wrote for Fairfax’s Good Weekend magazine led to her being attacked by AFR columnist and former Labor leader Latham, but she was denied.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/03/31/media-briefs-latham-faces-defo-action-qa-gets-cuddly-front-page-fight-club/
    (probably paywalled)

  30. meher baba @432:

    Two small kids plus full-time medicine studies, plus journalism to pay the bills? Show me someone who wouldn’t develop a caffeine addiction!

    The fact is that he wilfully misrepresented what she said (I’m reading his AFR article now). He claimed that she was demonizing the raising of children – she wasn’t (she was saying it’s really hard yakka when you also have to study full-time). He used his misrepresentation of what she said to jump off into a screed attacking feminism, women in the workforce and then made nasty, gratuitous personal attacks against Pryor, continuing to misrepresent what she said to do so.

    While I dislike misuse of defamation suits, his remarks – and an apparent unwillingness to take Pryor seriously when she privately contacted him to resolve the issue – make this a textbook case of “take it to the courtroom”.

    Mark Latham is a pathetic piece of shit who wouldn’t know a hard job if he saw it. Not to mention that – just like any egomaniac boofhead – Latham takes his own experience as a stay-at-home dad, shuttling between gentlemens’ clubs and the golf course, with his (much older) children at school much of the day, and assumes it to be somehow equal to Pryor’s experience trying to balance two pre school-age children, full-time study and journalism on the side to pay the bills. Oh, let’s not forget the $80,000 p.a. pension he gets as a former LOTO, meaning he need never do a hands-turn of work that he doesn’t want to.

    Mark Latham is an egocentric, misogynistic piece of slime. I’m heartily ashamed of having voted Labor is 2004, with someone like him as the leader.

  31. Victoria

    I believe ASADA has 21 days or something to consider to appeal or not, which is fair enough as the findings were 130 pages.

  32. TPOF

    With the ex-member (who was defeated by the ex-partner), and the media knockin on the door, unless Gordon’s ex is a savvy player in the public domain, she would be putty in their hands.

    They would be 100% pursuing their interests, not hers.

    I have had experience with the media in regard to a “crisis”. They hold a caring love-in till they gain your cooperation, then chew you up and spit you out. Heartless, souless creeps just wanting footage for tonight’s broadcasts.

    No wonder there is advice around that if in trouble with the law OS, the number 1 rule is to totally avoid the Aus media. They are interested in “their case” (good footage), not yours, and will quickly detriment your case by criticising the system about to judge you. Self interested scum.

  33. Victoria

    The one thing I will give ASADA credit for, is the keeping of the samples so if a test is ever available then the samples can be tested.

    I think its for a period of seven years

  34. mb

    In a perverse kind of way Stephen Dank’s “deliberate failure’ to keep records of the stuff injected into the players, is what probably what saved the playes

  35. As farcical as the whole ‘blackest day in sport’ situation has been, and its current pathetic conclusion, I think there are some positives that have come out of it:
    1) Dank is unlikely to be receiving any high paying job offers from here on
    2) Players everywhere are going to be a lot more careful about what their club wants them to do to themselves
    3) Essendon’s program was exposed and nipped in the bud. They and other clubs are going to think very long and hard about pushing the envelope in future.

    And that’s really what we and ASADA should be aiming for here – preventing this injection culture from becoming established and protecting the players into the future.

    I kind of think ASADA should cut its losses on the legal front, but that’s up to them.

    As an aside it was interesting to see the 7.30 interview with a former head of ASADA, Ings I think his name is. Clearly a lot of bad blood there – his only intent in doing the interview seemed to be to rip ASADA a new one.

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