The latest fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian gives the Coalition its best result since September, with Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 comparing with 55-45 last time. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 41%, Labor is down two to 37%, and the Greens are down one to 11%. Amid a general picture of weakening personal ratings for Bill Shorten, Newspoll has him down three on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 47% after a spike in his favour a fortnight ago. Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down two to 61% – dismal as those figures are, they’re his best since Australia Day. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has closed from 44-33 to 41-36.
Also today, Morgan’s latest poll combining face-to-face and SMS polling from the past two weekends has Labor up on last fortnight and level with the fortnight before, leaving the intervening poll looking like something of an aberration. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% with the Coalition down one to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point to 11% and 1.5%. There’s a big shift to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, their lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 56-44, but a surprisingly modest one on previous election preferences, from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46, some of the difference evidently being obscured by rounding.
UPDATE (Essential Research): To reinforce the point that polling moves in mysterious ways, the normally sedate Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has moved two points to Labor, putting its lead at 54-46. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 41%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down to an all-time low of 1%. The poll also finds a big downturn in the assessment of Joe Hockey’s performance as Treasurer even since the months after the budget, with approval at 27% (down eight points since August) and disapproval at 51% (up seven). Chris Bowen has all but caught up with him as preferred Treasurer, Hockey’s 34-23 lead in August now at 26-25. Relatedly, there is a poor result on economic sentiment, with 27% describing the state of the Australian economy as good (down 10% since last August) and 33% as poor (up 7%).
A question on data retention suggests dissatisfaction with the protections provided in the government’s policy, with 58% believing a warrant should be required to access data in any case, only 10% considering it should only apply to journalists and 12% believing no warrant should be required. Also featured are a semi-regular question on climate change, thought to be caused by human activity by 54% (down three since December) with 31% favouring the skeptical option (up two); 52% professing greater concern than two years ago (up one) with 8% less concerned (down one); 45% favouring incentives for renewable energy in response (up five since September), 12% an emissions trading scheme (up two), 10% the government’s direct action policy (steady) and 11% believing no action is required (steady). The 20% renewable energy target is thought too high by 8% (down five since last July), too low by 33% (up four) and about right by 32% (down four).
Its still Labor in front on 2PP
Must be tough being a rightie. To keep up the debt and budget emergency rhetoric when Abbott is saying its all fixed.
Abbott is asking us to believe several contradictory things at once.
First, that the Coalition inherited a budget emergency.
Second that its job of responding to that emergency has been relentlessly sabotaged by the opposition and other senate riff-raff.
Third, that in spite of this relentless blocking, the budgetary repair job has somehow been done. Turns out the opposition weren’t blocking terribly much.
Or that the stuff they were blocking was unnecessary to fix the budget, anyway, in which case they weren’t as irresponsible as we were being asked to believe.
Newspoll = i fixed it again!
Looks like Bill Shorten won’t last the distance.
Abbott is urging us to accept: “Under Labor the budget was completely out of control. Under us, it’s manageable”.
Howard squandered the proceeds of asset sales and the vast rivers of revenue from booming industries by handing it out to middle and high income earners as election bribes.
According to a Treasury report in 2008, between 2004 and 2007, the mining boom and a robust economy added $334 billion in windfall gains to the budget surplus. Of this, the Howard Government spent, or gave away in tax cuts, $314 billion, or 94 per cent.
Sales of businesses yielded another $72 billion. And yet Australia’s cash in the bank when Howard left office was a pathetically low 7.3% of GDP.
[AussieAchmed
…Abbott is urging us to accept: “Under Labor the budget was completely out of control. Under us, it’s manageable”.]
Bingo!
To use a sporting analogy, the Tories have changed the game plan and kicked a couple of goals to boost their supporters hopes but still trail near half time.
Anyone betting what the reporting will be?
I’d like to see the State breakdowns – possibly this is the result of the NSW election reminding voters there of Labor’s past sins.
ESJ
bill could not last the distance of a one hour debate
no deep reasoning unless i am wrong
of course abbott does not give a challenge
Bludgertrack unchanged then
Imagine if Howard had spent the money from the mining boom buiding all the infrastructure business keeps telling us Australia desperately needs.
If Howard and Costello had invested the mining boom money in infrastructure projects like public transport in the cities most of them would have been underway in 2008 which would have obviated the need for Rudd to go so big in the GFC incentive package.
But buying votes was way more important.
Happiness
Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 10:51 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed
…Abbott is urging us to accept: “Under Labor the budget was completely out of control. Under us, it’s manageable”.
Abbott is asking us to believe several contradictory things at once.
First, that the Coalition inherited a budget emergency.
Second that its job of responding to that emergency has been relentlessly sabotaged by the opposition and other senate riff-raff.
Third, that in spite of this relentless blocking, the budgetary repair job has somehow been done. Turns out the opposition weren’t blocking terribly much.
Or that the stuff they were blocking was unnecessary to fix the budget, anyway, in which case they weren’t as irresponsible as we were being asked to believe.
They’re all up late tonight. Overtime down at the Ming Hacienda or Time in Loo?
Well Geoffrey on one level this is a great poll for Bill S. Reckon he’s safe as long as Abott is there, once ABott is removed so will Bill S. Probably Burkey but maybe Bowen if the focus group research says ok.
Wow!
From about the 20th-ranked economy in 1982, Australia had risen by 1996 to sixth in the world — behind only the United Arab Emirates, Norway, Singapore, Japan and the United States.
That’s measured by the variables: income, growth, wealth, jobs, inflation, interest rates, taxes, economic freedom and credit ratings.
By 2007, however, at the end of the wasted Howard years, Australia had slipped back in the rankings to 10th place.
13
Instead he payed off 96 billion in debt and created a future fund that will deliver 7 billion annually to the budget forever.
Australia’s cash in the bank when Howard left office was a pathetically low 7.3% of GDP.
Several other countries were much higher: Chile 13.0%, Sweden 17.4%, Finland 72.5%, United Arab Emirates 100.8% and Norway 138.8%.
Constant crowing by the cocky Coalition about the strong surplus it left is laughable. Even Algeria [20.9%], Bulgaria [10.2%] and Kazakhstan [14.4%] had better books in 2007 than Australia.
silmaj
The ALP prefers to pay 12 Billion in interest payments than having 7 Billion from future fund dividends!
:devil:
fraser
dr death for a wide eyed generation – he put fear and dread into lives of 20 year old facing conscription for an irrational war
he sauntered around the killing fields of s e asia as if driving a jeep in one of his west victorian paddocks
he sucked political idealism out of a generation and then another – sunk oz politics deeper that it still has not fully recovered
would only have second life thanks to graciousness of gough
as far as we know still believes vietnam (and cambodia) a good idea
good on his public service work – but we all do such things, but we’d know nothing of that except for his previous machiavellian and manichean use of power
liberal Liberal – NOT – he is the gradaddy of duplicity rancour and manichean abuse of power
and at gough’s funeral he and tammy looked at watch and were impatient during proceedings no doubt about that – did he ever praise GW?
first impressions are correct, those eyes, that immobilised pompous gaze and face
vale the destructive stranger in our midst
*still believed
…what was I saying about the hate of the left again?
[AussieAchmed
….Australia’s cash in the bank when Howard left office was a pathetically low 7.3% of GDP.]
You forgot to mention Australia’s cash in the bank when Gillard and Rudd left office….
silmaj 20
That $96 billion was $46 billion Fraser with Howard as Treasurer left Hawke/Keating.
The Future Fund was created from the sale of Telstra, not good economic management. The $7 billion a year cannot be spent or used to pay down debt…the money is legislatively locked in for public service superannuation payments.
And despite the lies by the right wing Labor did not, could not, “raid” the Fund without changing the legislation
51-49 my arse!
In the past fortnight it’s been nothing but glass half full debt and deficit, Mr Fix-it policy failure, that Abbott wasn’t worried about metadata before the internet… guiness or 3, lifestyle choices…
Happiness
Luckily the full year revenue was just over 12 billion. It might just keep up with the fiscal conservatives( this reckless spending must stop) debt legacy.
Happiness – deflection…the realm of the right…
Howard was a failure ….he failed to secure Australia’s future preferring instead to squander billions on welfare in the most expensive vote buying exercise ever seen.
if abbott’s is labor’s best bet then shorten is liberals —
Some serious bouncing of polls in all directions at the moment. 🙂
Now while i would certainly prefer to seen the Libs further behind it will be interesting if a run of improving polls pre-budget causes them to keep Abbott, AND get a little less nervous about giving us the Budget the IPA and Gina want us to have? 🙂
Surely fraser didn’t give them a bounce
imacca – hmm pollbludger logic at its best
glass always half full
[AussieAchmed
….The $7 billion a year cannot be spent or used to pay down debt…the money is legislatively locked in for public service superannuation payments.]
Ah…yes….but if you don’t have the $7 Billion from that source, you need to have it from another source.
You need to pay the super commitments…..or are you a Republican-just-defaultist?
on twitter
[Has Bill ate an onion yet?
#auspoI]
I see the rusted righties are into self congratulation.
What a pity the views on the Future Fund are so incorrect that a sensible person could easily believe they are Hockey so poor is their understanding of legislation and numbers…they still believe eleventy is a number because Hockey said so
27
Your point the debt was paid off . Hawke and keating mustn’t have been able to pay any off. If the future fund wasn’t there that money would still have to be found. But thankfully it is and will spare the budget from this
[AussieAchmed
….Howard was a failure ….he failed to secure Australia’s future preferring instead to squander billions on welfare in the most expensive vote buying exercise ever seen.]
Billions on welfare which Gillard reversed?
As Pauline Hanson said: PWEZE EXPWAIN
nsw – foley made BIg mistake thinking anything could be copied from other states – NSW is out on its own and he is in no place to point finger – he got a clean campaign re corruption but still wanted dirt – public wants some warm messages – even privatisation should be understated – if an issue let it speak for itself —–
Only TBA to arrive and we have all of them on the blog tonight?
Anyway off to bed now and dream of Abbott still being there
Should I say a nightmare?
[ 51-49 my arse!
In the past fortnight it’s been nothing but glass half full debt and deficit, Mr Fix-it policy failure, that Abbott wasn’t worried about metadata before the internet… guiness or 3, lifestyle choices… ]
Its odd. But have you thought that maybe people are just used to it and disengaged? I mean, apart from the political tragics like us, just how many people out there can be bothered following all the fwark ups?
I too would like the state breakdowns as probably the only state where people are focusing on politics at the moment is NSW.
AA
Yes. The Future Fund deals with Public Service Pay. The LNP partly fixes that by sacking numbers of them when they get into government.
The way they talk about it you would think it was about Superannuation for the whole population.
Bye Bye Short-end
Happiness 35
Like the $7.5 billion that was paying the $4.5 billion in tax cuts and compensation for the carbon pricing. The $7.5 billion is gone but the $4.5 billion in tax cuts and compensation remain and the money has to come from somewhere…or do you believe in the right wing manna from heaven principle that now funds those tax cuts and compensation?
bill shorten – isn’t he a bit …stiff in public? has he got the common touch – to be liked, to share a joke – maybe he is learning, slowly and on the job
mari
nightmare! Coz we are stuck with Abbott. Sigh……
Those saying Shorten is done and gone have not noticed the leadership rules of the Federal Australian Labor Party.
AA:
Could you please pass on this gem “The money has to come from somewhere” to your ALP colleagues?
The ALP has not delivered a surplus budget federally for a quarter of a century….remember?
And in other good news I just recieved an email telling me that GOD… yes GOD… has gifted me $2 Million Dollars “Grant Donation” and I just have to click on the not-suspicious-at-all hotmail email return address with my details.