Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a surprisingly solid bounce back to the Coalition a fortnight ago, the latest Newspoll splits the difference of the previous two results.

James J in comments has the goods on Newspoll, brought to you by tomorrow’s Australian. After contracting from 57-43 to 53-47 in last fortnight’s poll, this one splits the difference at 55-45. The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady), so I think it’s fair to say that rounding has a fair bit to do with the two-point shift on two-party preferred. There is slight improvement for Tony Abbott on personal ratings after two successive diabolical results, with his approval up three to 28% and disapproval down five to 63%. However, Bill Shorten is also back up after a series of weak results, with approval up four to 39% and disapproval down seven to 42%. His lead as preferred prime minister widens from 43-35 to 44-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, from a sample of 1161.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Another stable result for Essential’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40% and everything else unchanged – the Coalition on 40%, Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 2% and two-party preferred on 53-47. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, recording the change since Tony Abbott’s post-Australia Day nadir. His approval is up two to 31% with disapproval down six to 56%, which is still solidly worse than where he was in January. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval to 34% and 39%, and likewise rating solidly lower than two months ago. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is pared back from 39-31 to 37-33.

Further questions find 50% opposed to sending troops to Iraq, with only 36% in support. Questions on tax find respondents believing companies and individuals on high incomes pay too little of it and everyone else pays too much, and that higher tax rates for multinational corporations would be good for the economy.

Still to come this afternoon: the fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS result from Morgan.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Contra Newspoll, Morgan shifts to the Coalition since last fortnight’s result, their primary vote up 1.5% to 39%, with Labor down 2.5% to 38% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is 53.5-46.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively compared with 56-44 and 55-45 last time. The result is unusual for Morgan both in failing to record Labor above the overall trend, and in not having Labor higher on respondent-allocated than previous election preferences. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3182.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,045 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  4. Oohkay. Let’s revisit from today’s Mumble in an attempt to pre-empt the commentariat tomorrow:

    [If Newspoll has the Labor opposition back on 54 per cent or more after preferences, Tony’s mini-honeymoon with be declared over. Business will return to usual: what, for example, did he think he was doing making light of International Women’s Day in parliament? What’s going on in his office?]

    Have at it guys.

  7. You know, there might be something in the idea that the “bounce” was the expectation that Turnbull would be leader. And this poll reflects the realisation that he isn’t.

  8. Makes Ispos and the entire Canberra Press Gallery look particularly clueless.

    Perhaps Fairfax needs o find a more reliable pollster.

  13. What we need to see now is another “they just don’t get it” budget. And with Hockey in charge that’s a real possibility. Mind you last year it took a week for the media to catch up. Initially they were running with “tough but fair” and other crap. Took them a while to realise the punters thought it sucked. The media are going to tell us this budget is better no matter how stupid or unfair it is. So we’ll see what happens to the polls then.

  17. What makes everyone so sure Ipsos was wrong when it found 51-49 and Newspoll is “all over the place”.

    Newspoll is only showing a 2% change in TPP and Ipsos was a while ago and these are Turnbullent times.

  18. Ipsos was the weekend before Abbott was supposed to be boned. Accounting for their apparent lean in relation to others the result is perfectly well explained by the ‘thank God Abbott is gone’ hypothesis. If he’s still there next time they poll (and the media is full of his imminent demise) then you would expect a couple of points movement back to Labor as this has shown and as Bilbo hinted at in last week’s Essential.

  21. Watch for Bishop’s reaction when she reaads the polls. That is I think she is smiling more than a little while ago

  23. Oh thank goodness. I was really starting to wonder what was up with my fellow Australians. Glad it was seemingly just the Turnbull factor.

  25. yesterday word from one business quarter is that it is perilous – increasingly bad over last 6 months – only few days contracts at hands where this time last year there was work till end of year – all blamed on govt ……….. get rid of this little runt

  28. As per tweet posted by a bludger earlier

    [Here we go @PMOnAir @StevePriceMedia just say on @2GB873 The Newspoll is bad for Abbott again so the #libspill2 will start up again]

    You really gotta laugh

  32. Yes I think the Libs are locked into the budget, apart from some tinkering at the edges.

    I’ll be interested to look at the Bludger track trend lines, I think that is the best way to view the situation…

  40. Jake @ 29

    [England lose to Bangladesh and are out of the WC before the quarters.

    Yeeeeeessssss…!!!]

    Will we get a WOW from PVO?

  41. If Mr Hockey loses his court case, it would have to be one of the best examples of the stupidity of taking action for libel since Oscar Wilde sued the Marquess of Queensberry.

  44. The problem is the commentariat compare numbers between polls from different pollsters.

    Does anyone recall what the last ipsos was and how it compared to other polls?

  45. Jake

    [The Oz is running “Tony Abbott rises…”]

    I guess the headline on the sports page must be England rises! 😀

  47. Where did Abbott get the term “death cult” from anyway, who dreams up this shit in the Liberal media unit.

  48. Also pedant, this is the period when Joe is supposed to be having his ‘conversation ‘ with lucky us.
    However he is stuck in a Sydney court room.

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