Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a surprisingly solid bounce back to the Coalition a fortnight ago, the latest Newspoll splits the difference of the previous two results.

James J in comments has the goods on Newspoll, brought to you by tomorrow’s Australian. After contracting from 57-43 to 53-47 in last fortnight’s poll, this one splits the difference at 55-45. The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady), so I think it’s fair to say that rounding has a fair bit to do with the two-point shift on two-party preferred. There is slight improvement for Tony Abbott on personal ratings after two successive diabolical results, with his approval up three to 28% and disapproval down five to 63%. However, Bill Shorten is also back up after a series of weak results, with approval up four to 39% and disapproval down seven to 42%. His lead as preferred prime minister widens from 43-35 to 44-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, from a sample of 1161.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Another stable result for Essential’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40% and everything else unchanged – the Coalition on 40%, Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 2% and two-party preferred on 53-47. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, recording the change since Tony Abbott’s post-Australia Day nadir. His approval is up two to 31% with disapproval down six to 56%, which is still solidly worse than where he was in January. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval to 34% and 39%, and likewise rating solidly lower than two months ago. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is pared back from 39-31 to 37-33.

Further questions find 50% opposed to sending troops to Iraq, with only 36% in support. Questions on tax find respondents believing companies and individuals on high incomes pay too little of it and everyone else pays too much, and that higher tax rates for multinational corporations would be good for the economy.

Still to come this afternoon: the fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS result from Morgan.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Contra Newspoll, Morgan shifts to the Coalition since last fortnight’s result, their primary vote up 1.5% to 39%, with Labor down 2.5% to 38% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is 53.5-46.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively compared with 56-44 and 55-45 last time. The result is unusual for Morgan both in failing to record Labor above the overall trend, and in not having Labor higher on respondent-allocated than previous election preferences. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3182.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,045 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Dan Andrews up u riposte to Abbott’s letter re the E-W white elephant says a lot about Abbott’s standing. The States don’t fear him, they are mocking him, taunting him. Abbott is their best asset at the moment

  2. as a follow up to the discussion the other night on Neneh Cherry, I thought I might suggest these singers:
    Lianne La Havas – a soul/folk singer.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcXl6CDqpvY
    My OH got tickets to see her at the Spiegeltent in Parramatta – total crowd 80 or so, just magic. Apart from singing, she plays guitar.

    Joss Stone.
    ‘Dirty Man’ – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKhCZzpbL64
    Very soulful blues.
    She was young when she first recorded this song, according to Wikipedia -16.

    Also David Bowie and the German version of Heroes.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nb6Gbi1MpoE
    This is far, far better than the English version.
    I have visions of Bowie, Brian Eno and Lou Reed sharing an apartment in Berlin in the early ’80s – with Iggy Pop dropping in on weekends when he was out of rehab.

  4. Love this quote from Waterford

    “When a small and impoverished rural township in south east Queensland is flooded out, or a bushfire ravages a small hamlet in Victoria, Australians reach generously into their pockets to help victims rebuild their lives, as often as not in local economies where there was already considerable social dysfunction and little work. No one ever suggests that we “move on” from our romantic dreams, and force such lifestyle tree changers to go to the cities.”

  5. Rossmore @ 1001

    And why shouldn’t they mock him. I was astonished to hear his Minime, Josh Frydenburg, say recently that nobody expected that Andrews would really can the East-West link.

    The subtext of that is that Abbott and Frydenburg and the rest all believe that promises, even ones central to the campaign, are so much septic tank material once the election has been won.

    At the end of the day Andrews could legislate to negate the East-West link contracts. Unlike the Commonwealth, there is no requirement for the State government to provide ‘just terms’ if it acquires property. There is always the problem of sovereign risk being raised – but it would not be a bad thing if it deterred backroom dirty deals to rush through contracts to stymie an incoming government.

  6. In the end the EWL will be settled out of court for a lot less than the hyped figures. A few hundred million at most and for quite legitimate costs.

  8. [ In the end the EWL will be settled out of court for a lot less than the hyped figures. A few hundred million at most and for quite legitimate costs. ]

    Yup. And why the Fwark does Abbott want to bring up an failed and seemingly quite dodgy infrastructure project like this, so close to the NSW election?? Its just silly.

  12. [“Dan Andrews up u riposte to Abbott’s letter re the E-W white elephant says a lot about Abbott’s standing.”]

    When can we see Dan’s Cost Benefit Analysis and Business Plan on his train plans?

    He was rabbiting on about the E-W Cost Benefit Analysis and Business Plan being made public, so surely he has one drawn up for rail?

  13. TBA/1012

    Labor had a business plan for their NBN, but was ridiculed by the likes of yourself and media, so it wouldn’t matter if they had one or not.

  14. US Prof writes on the madness of the US neoc-ns and their love for wars
    ___________________________________________________________
    Prof Andrew Bacevitch is a US academic,Vietnam war hero and a man who lostgf a son in the Iraq war
    Who better to write of the folly of the Neo-cpons and their lust for endless wars for the US to fight..and lose …and he asks …what generates this folly

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2015/03/no_author/beware-of-neocon-intellectuals/

  15. Nice Ross – teenage fan club

    Also DisplayName above re. Tony Abbott’s motivation re. aboriginal affairs, Rundle said similar ( in many more word of course ) in today’s Crikey.
    Part of his brain never reached the 21st century.
    I would have loved seeing him in a comparative religions or cultures class.
    I think part of him sees it as a’lifestyle choice’ he knows it riles the left, but without understanding why.
    Howard was similar but he understood why it was offensive to others.

  16. TBA 1012 …. patience grasshopper.

    Were the VICs LNP right to sign the EW contract without releasing the business case?

    Were the Fed Libs being fiscally prudent in co-funding it without a business case.

    The metro rail project has a long way to go before we get into business case territory.

  17. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11461476/Greece-awarded-financial-breathing-space-with-550m-lifeline.html

    [Greece’s economy minister told The Telegraph last month that his government had a number of options to stay solvent until April.

    The government has touted plans to raid pension funds held at the central bank to meet its obligations to the IMF.

    According to government officials quoted in the Financial Times, Syriza needs to find €1.5bn by the end of the month in order to make government wage and pensions payments.

    Eurozone officials fear Greece could run out of money in a matter of weeks, amid a climate of deteriorating tax revenues and capital flight from its banks.

    Greece’s international creditors have tightened the noose on the nascent Syriza government in recent days.]

  18. TBA at 1011, I think you will find the towelette was your hero PM, washed up on the WA coast like a used length of toilet tissue.

  20. I know I am very, very late to the party, but just a quick comment on yesterday’s Morgan which seemed to throw a few posters here.

    I’m not sure if anyone picked this up, but the first week of that Morgan was taken on the exact same weekend that Ypsos was in the field, which also happened to be the weekend when Libspill2 was in full overdrive. If, as I suspect, there was a thought that Turnbull was about to become PM, it figures they may have picked up a jump in support for the Liberals. We know this was picked up in other polls around the time. Of course leadership has settled a little (for now), and now we have a 55-45 Newspoll taken last weekend.

    I predict the polls to settle around 55-45 between now and the budget, as I think it highly unlikely anything will happen on the leadership front between now and then.

  22. [“TBA at 1011, I think you will find the towelette was your hero PM, washed up on the WA coast like a used length of toilet tissue.”]

    You really are a moron. People died on that plane and you want to play politics with it?

  24. There is a possibility of course it is not from MH370.

    Thinking about the lack of debris found so far one possibility that sprung to my mind recently is that the pilot landed the plane in one piece on the water and the whole plane sank as 1 piece.

    Yes… very hard to do, but not impossible. Certainly better than some of the other conspiracy theories out there.

  25. [At the end of the day Andrews could legislate to negate the East-West link contracts. Unlike the Commonwealth, there is no requirement for the State government to provide ‘just terms’ if it acquires property. There is always the problem of sovereign risk being raised – but it would not be a bad thing if it deterred backroom dirty deals to rush through contracts to stymie an incoming government.]

    Daniel Andrews should legislate before negotiating compensation – which shouldn’t be more than several tens of million.

    Suppose the winning consortium employed 200 people full time equivalent on the contract at $1,000 per day. Double to include accomodation, travel, materials, etc. Note that not a sod has been turned nor an inch of pavement layed. Suppose those staff had been working for a year. That’s 200 * 220 work days * $2,000 = $88 million, and it’s a lot less than that. There may be issues with organising finance but thes could not be more than a few percent of the amount being raised, all tax-deductible.

    Then institute a Royal Commission into the whole process that led to this state of affairs.

  26. [You really are a moron. People died on that plane and you want to play politics with it?]

    Like the incredibly sleazy politics that Abbott and Morrison played with asylum seekers who drowned at sea to produce a headline slogan for the 2013 Liberal election campaign?

  29. [CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

    Barnaby seems to have had a barney with the Agriculture Department Secretary last week before a Senate Estimates Committee meeting.

    It seems that all questions in the hearing were taken on notice.

    After that the Departmental Secretary went back to his office, packed his briefcase and disappeared without a word to anyone. And not been seen since.
    ]

    I had no role in any of this.

  30. [John Reidy

    Posted Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    as a follow up to the discussion the other night on Neneh Cherry, I thought I might suggest these singers:
    ]
    I raise you,

    Bjork

    Peter Gabriel

    Rickie Lee Jones (1st few albums)

  35. Cud Chewer (1031) – it must have been a challenge for the Fairfax journo to winnow all of Abbott’s gaffes down to merely a Top Ten, but I’m surprised his leering wink to Jon Faine didn’t make the cut. Even Abbott himself knew he’d goofed, when he belatedly realized he was being flimed…

  39. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    More trouble at a Liberal incubator!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/scots-college-alleged-assault-police-investigate-allegations-boy-rubbed-genitals-on-another-student-20150311-140utc.html
    Michael Gordon on how Abbott has tied himself up into knots on indigenous welfare.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-choice-of-words-on-indigenous-communities-clumsy-insensitive-destructive-20150311-1415s9.html
    Here is an aboriginal perspective on Abbott’s musings.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/remote-communities-arent-a-utopian-lifestyle-choice-but-they-are-good-for-our-people-20150311-1415ji.html
    Even Abbott’s Indigenous Affairs Minister says Abbott made a mess of it.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/nigel-scullion-abbott-made-mistake-in-comments-on-indigenous-communities
    Isn’t it just time to outright ban this ridiculous and dangerous rip off that preys upon the sick and credulous? And for private health insurers to remove it (and a few others of similar efficacy) from their benefits structure?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-evidence-homeopathy-works-research-council-finds-20150311-1419hw.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/mar/11/homeopathy-not-effective-for-treating-any-condition-australian-report-finds
    It’s time to stop using the NHMRC for ideological purposes.
    https://theconversation.com/time-to-stop-abusing-the-nhmrc-for-ideological-purposes-38151
    A science risk not worth taking.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/ncris-funding-cuts-a-science-risk-thats-not-worth-taking-20150311-140y69.html
    Abbott’s 10 biggest gaffes, clangers and cringeworthy moments.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-10-biggest-gaffes-clangers-and-cringeworthy-moments-20150311-140qnp.html
    Some timely introspection from Turnbull. But is it something else?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-blames-every-government-mp-including-himself-for-failing-to-sell-budget-20150311-141412.html

  40. Section 2 . . .

    Laura Tingle opines that after weeks of constraint Malcolm Turnbull just couldn’t help himself.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/after_weeks_of_restraint_malcolm_Eu8aXISdCXiGG7eQte6p4H
    Stand by for another “death cult” onslaught from Abbott.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/australian-white-jihadi-teen-jake-bilardi-involved-in-islamic-state-suicide-bombing-report-20150311-141m7i.html
    Fairfax reports on Hockey vs Fairfax.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-defamation-case-nailed-to-the-cross-did-not-mean-crucify-the-treasurer-court-hears-20150311-141du0.html
    Tim Wilson comes out of the shadows.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australian-marriage-forum-ad-might-be-distasteful-but-it-should-have-been-screened-20150311-140q3w.html
    Lenore Taylor on the pursuit of Barnaby Joyce over the alteration of Hansard and the potential role of the PM’s office in suppressing testimony to a Senate committee.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/pmc-contacted-paul-grimes-a-number-of-times-over-barnaby-joyces-hansard
    An old scholar tells us of life at Knox Grammar and the role of the omnipresent headmaster Ian Patterson. It’s a long and thorough examination.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/old-boys-of-knox-grammar-like-me-will-always-be-marked-by-how-close-we-came-to-the-abuse-there
    Here’s something for Dutton to get his teeth into.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/03/11/fresh-revelations-weaken-scott-morrisons-claims-about-self-harm-coaching-staff-nauru
    The NSW Greens might be on to something here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-state-election-2015-greens-highlight-arms-fairs-20150311-140b7y.html
    Labor plans a different sort of uni reform.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-pledges-to-tackle-uni-dropout-rate-if-elected-20150311-141cf5.html
    Abbott and the UN are still having words.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-gives-twofingered-salute-to-un-censure-over-refugee-detention-20150311-1419ba.html

  41. Section 3 . . .

    Rachel Siewert is proving to be as dumb as an ox on this subject. Her performance at Senate Estimates on this matter in general was simply woeful. She has no idea!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/concern-at-lack-of-screening-of-tuna-after-food-poisoning-scare-20150311-141gag.html
    Paul Sheehan says that the NSW election more than ever will be determined on state issues and that Baird is going to take a big hit – but win.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bambi-baird-becomes-a-deer-in-the-headlights-20150311-141346.html
    “View from the Street” has been very pointed lately and this is no exception.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-pm-reminds-first-australians-where-they-stand-20150311-141b4d.html
    Good sex is not the exclusive preserve of the young.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/good-sex-not-the-preserve-of-the-young-20150311-140mwq.html
    How to stand up to bullies like Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-to-stand-up-to-bullies-like-tony-abbott-20150311-13yz2c.html
    The real message from Gillian Triggs’ report deserves to be heard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-real-message-of-the-forgotten-children-report-from-the-australian-human-rights-commission-must-be-heard-20150311-14074e.html
    Stephen Koukoulas asks if Hockey wants to increase house prices even further.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/does-mr-hockey-want-to-inflate-house-prices-further.html
    The 27 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/03/11/the-thirty-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-214-2/
    Is the APS cull nearly over?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/canberras-public-service-casualty-list-likely-to-peak-at-less-than-6000-20150311-140zlc.html
    Abbott has kicked the women’s ant nest.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/hey-mr-minister-for-women–i-am-woman-hear-me-roar,7470

  42. Section 4 . . .

    Karma lands in South Australia.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/environment-protection-authority-files-charges-against-khalil-shahin-and-nasmin-pty-ltd-over-hills-waste-dump/story-fni6uo1m-1227259103760
    Mark Latham has penned a good article on anxiety and the industry it has spawned.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/why_anxiety_has_become_so_alarming_yZYn3ZyZr3TufZmyzZcseJ
    The St. James Ethics Centre proposes an oath for politicians.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-politicians-pledge-your-chance-to-clean-up-dirty-politics-20150311-140s1q.html
    Alan Moir channels Escher for this sombre contribution.

    David Pope goes to town on Abbott’s “lifestyle choices” comments.

    What superb imagery from David Rowe!

  43. Abbott’s claim on EW Link cancellation harming Victoria’s reputation as a safe place to invest is laughable. The only risk from that project is that, if continuing, it will add to Australia’s reputation as an increasingly corrupt place where government can be bought. Spend a few hundred thousand buying political influence, win multi-billion dollar project, take out $1.2 billion success fee up front. Sound like a good place to invest to you?

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