Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a surprisingly solid bounce back to the Coalition a fortnight ago, the latest Newspoll splits the difference of the previous two results.

James J in comments has the goods on Newspoll, brought to you by tomorrow’s Australian. After contracting from 57-43 to 53-47 in last fortnight’s poll, this one splits the difference at 55-45. The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady), so I think it’s fair to say that rounding has a fair bit to do with the two-point shift on two-party preferred. There is slight improvement for Tony Abbott on personal ratings after two successive diabolical results, with his approval up three to 28% and disapproval down five to 63%. However, Bill Shorten is also back up after a series of weak results, with approval up four to 39% and disapproval down seven to 42%. His lead as preferred prime minister widens from 43-35 to 44-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, from a sample of 1161.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Another stable result for Essential’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40% and everything else unchanged – the Coalition on 40%, Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 2% and two-party preferred on 53-47. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, recording the change since Tony Abbott’s post-Australia Day nadir. His approval is up two to 31% with disapproval down six to 56%, which is still solidly worse than where he was in January. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval to 34% and 39%, and likewise rating solidly lower than two months ago. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is pared back from 39-31 to 37-33.

Further questions find 50% opposed to sending troops to Iraq, with only 36% in support. Questions on tax find respondents believing companies and individuals on high incomes pay too little of it and everyone else pays too much, and that higher tax rates for multinational corporations would be good for the economy.

Still to come this afternoon: the fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS result from Morgan.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Contra Newspoll, Morgan shifts to the Coalition since last fortnight’s result, their primary vote up 1.5% to 39%, with Labor down 2.5% to 38% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is 53.5-46.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively compared with 56-44 and 55-45 last time. The result is unusual for Morgan both in failing to record Labor above the overall trend, and in not having Labor higher on respondent-allocated than previous election preferences. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3182.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,045 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  2. Fess

    The Oz is good for a laugh. Shorten’s numbers have improved too

    [#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 28 (+3) Disapprove 63 (-5) #auspol]

    [#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 39 (+4) Disapprove 42 (-7) #auspol]

    [#Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 33 (-2) Shorten 44 (+1) #auspol]

  3. This is the article in full. Not just an exercise in applying lipstick to the pig, but a full make-up lesson:

    TONY Abbott has lifted his approval rating to a three-month high and held on to recent gains in primary support for the Coalition, but he has failed to overcome Labor’s 11-month lead in two-party preferred terms.

    The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, marks 18 months since the Coalition won power and shows if an election was called today Labor would start as clear favourites to return to ­office with a commanding two-party lead of 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

    SNIP: Please keep pasting of articles within the bounds of what copyright law allows – The Management.

  5. Please forgive me reposting my comment from the Ipsos thread:

    Peter Piper

    Posted Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    On days like this, it seems almost everyone on here is a Concern troll! Virtually the whole country regards Abbott as a joke and a dead man walking; there are reports in the news of how the party is almost openly planning to get rid of him. And supposedly this one poll changes that??

    The fact that PVO and Bolt are quoting Ipsos to support Abbott should illustrate just how desperate things are. News normally wouldn’t come within a mile of publicising a Fairfax poll

  8. Abbott is up all right – pacing the floor and praying for a respite from the knightmare depriving him sleep.

  11. Yeah
    [The problem is the commentariat compare numbers between polls from different pollsters
    ]
    Fairfax did this comparing the first ipsos poll with the last Neilsen

  12. victoria:

    The whole article is worth reading, esp when contrasted inversely against Mumble’s earlier forecast. 😀

  16. Mod Lib #17 is back to her denialist self.

    Only Mod Lib, the meeja, and a few PB concern trolls ever believed Ipsos.

    Of course we know the Libs are really great (ha ha) but who would believe even they can bring about a 4% change in a fortnight, except those listed above.

    Oh, and the ABC which in a news bulletin even today spoke of the fantastic polling turnaround Abbott was enjoying.

  20. Not usually one for simply pasting in from Twitter, but the latest contribution from Possum is a beauty – the lack of understanding of Queensland by the rest of Australia is leagion.

    [Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    My workplace is mostly women, servicing a membership 2/3rds women (a union) in a state that’s now run by women. And they call Qld backwards]

  21. [ What we need to see now is another “they just don’t get it” budget. And with Hockey in charge that’s a real possibility. ]

    From the kites they have been flying it looks like its a good possibility. I suspect they have a plan to politically self harm further than they have already.

    Still, i reckon they will stick with Abbott and Hockey until after the Budget. Then when that falls in a heap of manure send in the B team to rescue a good Govt that has lost its way.

  25. The next election is 18 Months away… why stress about the polls?

    BTW.. when is Bill Shorten going to release a policy?

  26. TPOF @ 53: Mr Shanahan quotes Mr Abbott as saying that “… in recent weeks the government had … taken a tougher approach on hate preachers.”

    Does anyone here know what, exactly, the government is supposed to have done about “hate preachers”?

  27. psyclaw

    Good evening to you too. Have you been well? 🙂

    If you would care to review my posts in relation to the improved performance of the LNP, we discussed the likelihood of an “expectation effect” where those polled may have already factored in a Turnbull lead.

    Confessions said she thought that was unlikely
    I pointed out that it only took 2% to change their mind for this reason (not that many)
    Confessions replied that it might be possible

    All very polite and collegiate and professional……then you come along! Consistency counts for something at least :devil:

  28. Heard Abbott on the car radio today talking about the two idiot kids stopped at the Airport on the way th join Daesh: “blah blah blah Death Cult blah blah blah Death Cult blah blah blah Death Cult blah blah blah Death Cult blah blah blah Death Cult…”. He said ‘Death Cult’ at least a dozen times in 3 minutes – obviously his minders told him to use the term ‘Death Cult’ at every opportunity, and he’s doing exactly what they said.

    By the way, the headline on the Australian is “EXCLUSIVE Abbott up but Labor leads: Newspoll”. They have a ‘glass half full’ view of the situation.

  30. The Coalition is dead in the water and can’t come back from this. Mind you I always thought this would be the outcome.

  31. The head of Ipsos said the 51-49 result was probably due to the assumption that Abbott was about to be defrocked when the polling was conducted. This was met with anger by some of the other polling organisations. Looks like their anger was misplaced.

  32. I wonder if there is a reporter in the employ of the Kalgoorlie Miner who will be brave enough to “shirtfront” Abbott on this Newspoll result.

    There sure won’t be one from the West Australian…

  33. [psyclaw

    Good evening to you too. Have you been well? :)]
    FARQ OFF
    [If you would care to review my posts in relation to the improved performance of the LNP, we discussed the likelihood of an “expectation effect” where those polled may have already factored in a Turnbull lead.]
    FARQ OFF
    [Confessions said she thought that was unlikely
    I pointed out that it only took 2% to change their mind for this reason (not that many)
    Confessions replied that it might be possible]
    FARQ OFF
    [All very polite and collegiate and professional……then you come along! Consistency counts for something at least :devil:]
    FARQ OFF

  34. Hey ShowsOn, how have you been?

    Has the UN and Human Rights Commission reports on the mandatory detention policy changed your mind or are you still a massive Abbott and Morrison supporter?

  37. [ In any case, when was the last poll that the coalition ahead on 2pp? ]

    That one was published in Cuneiform wasn’t it??

  42. kinkajou

    Be fair. Happiness is not in denial at the lows the LNP is experiencing. For Happiness its a chance to cheer on a Turnbull PM

  44. I’d be happy to see Turnbull at least fight a good rearguard action. He would lose but it may be a loss with some honour.

  45. Maybe Abbott needs to jack up the terrorist threat level another notch (or create a new notch if it’s already at the top’).

  46. [guytaur
    …..Be fair. Happiness is not in denial at the lows the LNP is experiencing. For Happiness its a chance to cheer on a Turnbull PM]

    BINGO!

  47. Guytaur

    [Be fair. Happiness is not in denial at the lows the LNP is experiencing. For Happiness its a chance to cheer on a Turnbull PM]

    Hope Happiness has access to high quality grief counselling when the realisation finally dawns that Turnbull has missed the boat.

  48. hope springs …. blood runs again from sore under ipsos bandaid

    to mix metaphors apparently business is hurting badly right now – over last 4 months – blamed fully on govt

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