Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change this week on voting intention from Essential Research, but further questions suggest the Abbott government’s anti-terrorism measures may be striking a chord.

No change this week on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which has the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 40%, 41%, 9% and 2%, with Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Further questions relate to terrorism, and they offer rare good news for Tony Abbott, whose handling of the threat has 46% approval and 33% disapproval. It would also be to his advantage that fully 75% of respondents believe the threat has increased over the last few years, with only 2% opting for decreased, and that considerably more respondents think the government should be spending more on anti-terrorism measures (39%) than less (12%), with 56% favouring more restrictions versus only 28% who believe current laws strike the right balance. Less good for the government is the finding that 34% approve of the Human Rights Commission’s performance versus only 22% disapproval, although 44% allowed that they didn’t know. Another interesting finding is that 48% would support a national ban on greyhound racing, with only 26% opposed. The poll also finds that 57% take a favourable view of multiculturalism versus 29% for negative, and that 67% think racism is a problem in Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. 1. Some form of de Jure recognition of west Papua.
    2. Suspend ministerial visits and ambassador for the foreseeable future
    3. Travel bans on Indonesian elite to Australia
    4. End loan guarantees for Indonesia.

  2. [I hope we retaliate massively on Monday.]

    With our Prime Minister desperately casting about for a war to sign Australia up to, I hope for all our sakes that this doesn’t happen.

  3. Sgh and ross mg don’t be wankers – what went on in bali today was a massive up yours to all Australians – we would be exceedingly stupid to bend over and cop this without retaliation.

  4. ESJ @ 652

    Hmmm that will get the Indonesians really worried.

    No I think a special forces rescue mission with Mel and Kochie providing ‘on the ground’ coverage should be the ticket.

    Sorry for being so cynical but really what can seriously be done?

  5. [what went on in bali today was a massive up yours to all Australians]

    Not all Australians – just one.

    The moral of the story is if you spend years insulting people, and insulting their intelligence, they will generally take the first opportunity they can to send you an “up yours” message.

  6. EStJ

    You are calling me a wanker?

    OK, it may have been a poor attempt at humour but Tony Abbott is a loose cannon as far as foreign policy is concerned and nothing should be ruled out.

    I am appalled at the prospect of two Australians facing a firing said, regardless of what they may have done.

    But when it comes to the crunch money talks and I suspect the givernment will take no meaningful action.

    If it turns out I am wrong I will happily admit it.

  7. Seriously though if one was looking at sanctions then perhaps

    – Immediate cessation of all flights in/out Bali etc
    – All Garuda flights into Australia, NZ stopped
    – Cessation of all joint military exercises etc
    – Withdrawal of embassy staff
    – Doing something about the Balibo Five ???? Referral to UN?
    – Cessation of all imports
    – ????

  8. [We could stop all live exports. Permanently and immediately.]

    Puffy:

    I’d like to see that too, but after the fuss and carry on the coalition made after Labor suspended the live export trade, I can’t see that happening.

  9. Indonesia is very naughty doing this. They did it to the Brazillians and there has been no diplomatic love lost there.

    The reality is, for better or for worse, we both need each other (we possibly need them more than they do us, but that is arguable). So we can’t go too far with our response.

    While I do not think we should bring aid into it, certainly we need not be so accomodating of Indonesian abuses in West Papua in the future. Their colonial baggage is a bit rich given they are doing largely what the Dutch did to them in Papua…

    I also think though that the media, espcially ABC, has been pretty blood thirsty on all this — almost death porn — reporting every move the authorities make in relation to the poor souls about to be murdered. A sick reality show!

  10. Confessions @ 664

    Wasn’t there an Australian sentenced to death in the US several years ago? I presume the person is still on death row?

    Michael McAuliffe was executed in Malaysia in 1993

  11. Yes mikehilliard there’d be a few people on here who’ll probably make you the exhibit in their next bukkake party too!

    Fair comment Darren laver

  12. Darren Laver

    Fairfax online ran a live blog on their Age and SMH sites this afternoon which read like something the Daily Terror or the Hun would do. Very low brow indeed.

  13. Matt@521

    lizzie @520:

    The thought hadn’t crossed my mind, to be perfectly honest. I’ve worked with women, I’ve worked for women and I try to treat everyone the same regardless of gender.

    And if I think a woman’s lying, I’ll call her out on it just as hard as I will a man.

    Barney in Saigon@535

    Matt

    Posted Wednesday, March 4, 2015 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    Barney @528:

    Indeed…I, for one, would not want to live in the Dune-verse, even as the Padishah Emperor. The costumes are awesome, but the politics….!!


    You’re not letting that horrible movie pollute your imagination, are you?

    That movie pales in comparison with any of the Dune books. Last time I watched it, I thought the director and/or cinematographer was on some opiates.

  14. [They did it to the Brazillians and there has been no diplomatic love lost there.]

    Like Brazil’s govt, JBishop has said Australia will withdraw its ambassador-designate if the executions take place.

    As for media coverage, the whole media has been all over this, not just the ABC. Personally I think this is understandable.

  15. SGH:

    I have vague memories of an Australian executed during the Howard years, perhaps in an Asian country. But cannot be certain.

  16. [
    Fairfax online ran a live blog on their Age and SMH sites this afternoon which read like something the Daily Terror or the Hun would do. Very low brow indeed.]

    Nasty stuff!

    Really tabloid stuff. How does it help anyone reporting their transfer from this facility to that facility? Or whether some local governor has combed his moustache today? Or what their last meal will be?

    Awful disaster porn! Awful.

  17. [Van Tuong Nguyen was executed in Singapore in 2005]

    Yes, that’s who I was thinking of.

    [No bishop or Abbott said we wouldn’t withdraw ambassador today.]

    I haven’t heard the news today, just going on previous statements from the FM. If they’ve ruled that out, then I can’t see the Australian govt doing anything much at all.

  18. The posts here tonight show how polarising some issues can be to some people. I am centre left and work in a very left leaning place and no-one but no-one is talking about the drug dealing master minds. So before you attack me I have not offered my opinions just observations.

  19. fess
    No one is going to even squeak against live export after what those scumbag libs did last time. There was a great opportunity to start to get rid of it altogether and what do the libs do? Make a song and dance about it.

  20. [I also think though that the media, espcially ABC, has been pretty blood thirsty on all this — almost death porn — reporting every move the authorities make in relation to the poor souls about to be murdered. A sick reality show!]

    Disaster/grief porn has become an epidemic these days. Disgraceful.

  21. Forgive ESJ, she was firmly in the Hockey camp saying Australians would all be glad when austerity was masterfully imposed by the masterful economic managers. Admittedly she wasn’t to know just how incompetent Hockey and the Abbott Libs would turn out to be.

  22. [The posts here tonight show how polarising some issues can be to some people. I am centre left and work in a very left leaning place and no-one but no-one is talking about the drug dealing master minds. So before you attack me I have not offered my opinions just observations.]

    I agree that these souls about to be killed are not at the forefront of many minds (despite the awful saturation coverage). It just reinforces that our largest and nearest neighbour really does not give a stuff about us — and that is not a great thing for us as a country. Billions in aid and other cooperation literally count for nothing. Some friend.

    Apparently only whitey can offend and cause others to lose face, but whitey has to cope it sweet when we are is insulted, ignored or offended…

  23. Brazil and Holland withdrew their ambassador after their citizens were executed. If we don’t do the same, Abbott is a pussy.

  24. Just 5 minutes thought by the odd individual banging on about what we could do to the Indonesians, might also let them consider what they might do to us?

    Someone here a few days ago outlined just how nasty the Indons might care to get if they put their mind to it.

    Off the top of the head, the Indons could disrupt air traffic north from Oz – and coming the other way, get a lot more hostile in their treatment of potential AS and just set them off on their way here, and maybe just stir the pot in P and NG not to mention the other half of Timor.

    The finger of ‘up yours’ to Oz is indicative of what the Indons really think of Tony Abbott and his brilliant diplomacy.

    Just as they were rightly upset with Oz listening in to their former President so we would be peed off if their Russian built jets flew low and slow over Broome maybe?

    At the end of the day, the massive show of hardware is for both domestic and Oz consumption.

    If my life had to depend on Tony Abbott’s ability to negotiate and offer diplomacy I know I would be a dead duck.

  25. ESJ

    I don’t hate Abbott you pratt, I just think he’s the wrong prime minister leading the wrong Government for this country. That’s my opinion and I’ll voice it on this blog until William axes me.

    Using debasing sexual criticism as you have just shows how pathetic your pro Abbott argument is.

    With that I’m out of here. it’s all getting too personal & gross.

  26. ESJ:

    I’ve no idea what stake Brazil has in maintaining relations with Indonesia, but my guess would be on the lower scale compared to us. And I’m already on record with my views of the Abbott govt’s record when it comes to international relations.

    I’d also love to see the AFP held to account for its role in the Bali 9 being arrested in Indonesia.

  27. I am glad these executions are getting intense media scrutiny. It has turned up on international sites as well, from the New York Times to the BBC, India etc. If Indonesia is going to do this, then let it be in the blazing lights of the world’s media, including online. The leaves of an island forest are not going to cover the red blood and loosed bowel stink of this action any longer.

  28. [Not all Australians – just one.

    The moral of the story is if you spend years insulting people, and insulting their intelligence, they will generally take the first opportunity they can to send you an “up yours” message.]

    Actually, it’s a very big “up yours” to 2 people and their family and friends, it’s not about Abbott.

  29. Okay, I have just seen this on the SMH online:

    [The Australian government, which was not informed of the plan to transfer Chan and Sukumaran on Wednesday, warned of repercussions if the men were executed.

    “I am sure that Indonesia understands it will have consequences,” Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop told Channel Nine.

    However, she said Canberra was unlikely to recall Australian ambassador-designate Paul Grigson from Indonesia in the wake of the killings.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/bali-nines-myuran-sukumaran-and-andrew-chan-could-be-executed-this-weekend-after-transfer-20150304-13v6oa.html

    There are no clues from the article what Australian govt would do though.

  30. I would have thought basic arithmetic would sink in…23 million of us on the world’s largest island and smallest continent.

    Some 215 million of them scattered over 5000 plus islands.

    Talk about a flea on the arse of an elephant.

    We are deluded if we think we can hurt them more than they can hurt us.

  31. [Brazil and Holland withdrew their ambassador after their citizens were executed. If we don’t do the same, Abbott is a pussy.]

    According to JBishop statement today, that option is ruled out. I’m surprised by that. It seems the easy way of making a public statement, while allowing for a behind the scenes heal breach once the media caravan moves on.

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