Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change this week on voting intention from Essential Research, but further questions suggest the Abbott government’s anti-terrorism measures may be striking a chord.

No change this week on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which has the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 40%, 41%, 9% and 2%, with Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Further questions relate to terrorism, and they offer rare good news for Tony Abbott, whose handling of the threat has 46% approval and 33% disapproval. It would also be to his advantage that fully 75% of respondents believe the threat has increased over the last few years, with only 2% opting for decreased, and that considerably more respondents think the government should be spending more on anti-terrorism measures (39%) than less (12%), with 56% favouring more restrictions versus only 28% who believe current laws strike the right balance. Less good for the government is the finding that 34% approve of the Human Rights Commission’s performance versus only 22% disapproval, although 44% allowed that they didn’t know. Another interesting finding is that 48% would support a national ban on greyhound racing, with only 26% opposed. The poll also finds that 57% take a favourable view of multiculturalism versus 29% for negative, and that 67% think racism is a problem in Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. This ignorant, shameful government. And Hockey crows about all the jobs he’s creating. Bull!!

    [More than two dozen research facilities are preparing to shut down as administrators warn Australian science is suffering “immense” damage as a result of the federal government’s refusal to guarantee critical infrastructure funding.

    About $150m in funding for 27 research infrastructure facilities promised in last year’s federal budget has been tied to the Abbott government’s higher-education changes, which have stalled in the Senate.
    . . .
    Even if the education minister, Christopher Pyne, relents and passes a bill funding NCRIS, the damage will already have been done, Hicks said. “Obviously we’re losing people. I’m being asked for references.”

    Some of the facility’s 94 staff – all but three of them researchers or technicians – will take jobs overseas, and one has already left for Canada, she added.

    The uncertainty also means the facility has not entered into any commercial contracts past the end of June, meaning revenue will likely fall even if the government money comes through.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/04/research-facilities-prepare-shutdown-government-refuses-secure-funding

  2. citizen

    I read that report and it’s unbelievable.

    [the federal budget would have returned to surplus and stayed there for 35 years if the reforms proposed in the Coalition’s politically difficult first budget had passed,]

    Who do they think they’re kidding? Fans like TBA, I suppose. And Sarah Henderson the noddy.

  3. And whilst I’m at it, sending 300 soldiers to Iraq is the dumbest idea in a liternay of dumb ideas this government has hatched.

  4. This must be the taxpayer funded PR campaign for the budget (from the Fairfax article quoted previously):

    [“We are going to engage in a conversation with the Australian people and that is going to be in town halls and street corners. We are going to have a range of different people stimulating that conversation but we have got to get the information out to people,” he said.

    “We will get the information out but we are not doing it in a way that would be typical for governments to buy those rather droll ads that try and convince people to come this way. We actually want people to read the information, to understand it and discuss it.”

    Mr Hockey did not say how much the government would spend in spruiking the report.]

    Maybe they plan to employ an army of people wearing sandwich boards standing on street corners or perhaps flood internet forums with people like TBA.

  5. citizen

    Hockey lives in the same fantasy land. Job creation 300% higher under Libs than under Lab. I guess that explains why unemployment keeps going up.

  6. And in news from the 2015-2016 CWC, selectors patience runs out and Watson dropped from ODI team. It’s hard not to agree with them. Faulkner is a better bet.

  7. Despite what the polls claim, everyone I have spoken to think the Bali Drug Smugglers should get the chop.

    Haven’t heard anyone say “poor drug smugglers!” yet

  8. If Hockey is modelling his “public consultation” on what the previous Qld Govt did on its privatisation proposals, it will see lots of empty rooms with a politician spruiking out front for the benefit of the cameras.

    As the election result showed, it was a disaster for them.

  9. Now who would think this government is cooking things up with it’s mates to convince us of acting against our own interests.

    [STEPHEN Parker, a vocal opponent to the government’s plan to deregulate university fees, claims the “urgent problem” of underfunding of the sector and future costs to government may be been “confected”]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/claims-of-crisis-a-confection-says-parker/story-e6frgcjx-1227248115234

  10. [Despite what the polls claim, everyone I have spoken to think the Bali Drug Smugglers should get the chop.]

    Mum hasn’t let you out in a while huh?

  11. Lizzie @ 601

    I refered to aspiration earlier.

    What does this Government aspire to?

    What does this Government want Australians to aspire to?

    What does this Government want Australian businesses to aspire to?

    What does this Government want Australian R&D to aspire to?

    It seems that the only thing that is important to them is a number in the budget and they’re moving in the wrong direction there.

    Labor clearly demonstrated the moronic nature of that approach yet the L&NP are falling for it as well.

    Where is their vision?

    So far they just tried to rip down things.

    Is their vision so abhorrent that they lack the courage to tell us?

  12. Las Vegas must have a superb transportation system:

    [Las Vegas on itinerary for proposed WA Transport Minister Dean Nalder’s research trip

    Plans are underway for WA Transport Minister Dean Nalder to take an overseas research trip to investigate best practice in world transport.

    The ABC has learnt that some of the destinations being considered include the US cities of Las Vegas, Portland and Baltimore, as well as Singapore and New Zealand.

    Mr Nalder, who said Premier Colin Barnett had suggested the overseas trip, was initially unwilling to reveal the reason for the travel.

    “We’ve been considering it … I’ve been in discussion with the Premier about something we are working on but it’s not something I can comment on at this point in time,” he said.

    “I’m hoping by next week we might be able to comment on it further.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-04/transport-minister-nalder-may-visit-vegas-on-fact-finding-trip/6281092

  13. Re Citizen @599: the headline reads “Tony Abbott says that the report says…”. So he’s probably just cherry picked best case and worst case numbers to say it says what he wants it to say. Although that sounds like hard wirk so maybe he’s just making shit up. Now as to what the report actually says, hopefully a credible commentator (e.g. Ross Gittins, Mega George) can give us a rundown.

  14. Abbott thought he was being pretty funny about this in QT today. He even had that hysterical note to his voice that irritates me more than Pynes.

    Anyhow, did he mean the club now excepts woman members, I don’t think so. Self professed minister for women, I couldn’t think of a worse representative. Perhaps Senator’s O’Sullivan & Macdonald.

    [Liberal National Party (LNP) Women will host its International Women’s Day event at a Brisbane club that only allows male members.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-04/lnp-to-host-womens-day-function-in-men-only-venue/6280820

  15. Chris Ulhmann almost wet himself while telling us what an amazing comeback Abbott is making. Cue repeated footage of a gloating and over confident Abbott in QT.
    Cue heavily edited footage of Lambie, coincidentally removing any criticism of the government’s pay offer.
    Cue Bill Shorten’s announcement re domestic violence reinterpreted as a sign of Abbott now being a true leader.

    Ulhmann’s penance for past indiscretions.

  16. [and SK depresses my pretensions..]

    Sorry Zoomster, did I tell you I knew a cat from my childhood called zoomster? She never walked, just zoomed everywhere.

    I was meandering down a backstreet in Uzbekistan once (as you do) and someone came up to me, shook my hand and said ‘welcome back’. Having never been to Uzbekistan before I was a little confused, but with Greek blood in me I assumed there is more than a little Turk blood too, and possibly even a throw back from a Macedonian soldier having some fun in the Sogdian sun.

    Globalisation has been happening for thousands of years. We are all in it together, descended from the Khan or not.

  17. [TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Wednesday, March 4, 2015 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    Despite what the polls claim, everyone I have spoken to think the Bali Drug Smugglers should get the chop.

    Haven’t heard anyone say “poor drug smugglers!” yet
    ]

    Are you back Troll?

    Judging by your level of compassion and intelligence demonstrated here, it’s hardly surprising that people who would want to associate with you, have similar views.

  18. mikehilliard @ 616

    I didn’t see it but read what he said and if I were a woman I’d be ropable right now. I mean, I’m already pretty pissed about it. I’m hoping his party needs to realise this kind of thing will happen every week til he’s gone.

  19. Yes, TBA, because all the people who you talk to are sociopaths just like you. Tell me, is your head lighter because that important bit of your brain is missing?

  20. In fairness to the Libs, apart from Abbott’s overreach with linking the tsunami and the executions, I think they have done a good job representing us over the Bali 2 which seems sadly to end badly on Sunday.

  21. It is strange how suddenly the leadership died down from Sunday. It was a bit like the cicadas suddenly stopping on a Summer day when a dark cloud moves over the Sun as a thunderstorm approaches.

    Newscrap I can understand, the edict came out from Rupert that Abbott be given till the end of the year. The Ipsos poll helped, but anyone who follows these things closely discounts it. Maybe it’s just the way the 24 hour News cycle now works, it’s moved on the the next big thing, although that never happened with R*dd / G*ll*rd. I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, so what happened?

  22. cityboy,
    As a woman…
    I wouldn’t throw abbott a stick if he was going down for the third time in a vat of camel’s p urine.

  23. [“Judging by your level of compassion and intelligence demonstrated here, it’s hardly surprising that people who would want to associate with you, have similar views.”]

    Not my view mate, views of other people.

  24. Citizen @599:

    How can Coalition politicians be taken seriously? It’s not just Tony Abbott:

    – The Fraser Government (Li’l Johnnie Howard as Treasurer) delivered stagflation to Australia.
    – The Howard Government (aka “drunken sailors”) spent the Budget into structural deficit, doing their damnedest to wreck the economy they inherited from Keating.
    – Now the Abbott Government is pretending that they can solve the deficit by refusing to address revenue!

    The bloody Coalition should be laughed out of the room every time they mention economic policy credentials!

  25. Just logged on to say it but I’ve been beaten. Chris Uhlmann pissing himself with delirious glee as his hero comes back!!! All is forgiven!!. Actually, in a few days we’ll find all that nasty stuff never even happened! And, magnanimous in triumph, he condescends to consider an approach from his vanquished foe.
    I thought about ringing the ABC to abuse them but didn’t because that’s what it’d have been. Straight out scatalogical & above all heartfelt abuse. What total shit these bastards perpetrate.

  26. [Steve777

    Posted Wednesday, March 4, 2015 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, so what happened?
    ]

    Tony said,

    pretty please with sugar on top,

    this time whilst grovelling on his belly licking the scum of their shoes pleading for a bit more time.

  27. Puff the Magic Dragon @ 627

    I imagine that would leave a taste in his mouth not unlike the one he’s left in the mouth of most Australias. Lol.

  28. [TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Wednesday, March 4, 2015 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

    “Judging by your level of compassion and intelligence demonstrated here, it’s hardly surprising that people who would want to associate with you, have similar views.”

    Not my view mate, views of other people.
    ]

    Your reading comprehension needs some work too.

  29. [It is strange how suddenly the leadership died down from Sunday. It was a bit like the cicadas suddenly stopping on a Summer day when a dark cloud moves over the Sun as a thunderstorm approaches.]

    Strange too how a new poll is suddenly accorded superstar status previously only given to Newspoll. And suddenly Abbott can do no wrong.

  30. Something completely different… my rant on the state of innovation in Australian retail wrt e-commerce.

    Wanted quotes from various furniture suppliers for new chairs.

    Most retailers except ONE had relatively easy to navigate websites with lots of information.

    I am of course referring to that (in)famous retailer Harvey Norman aka Hardly Normal aka Harvey Moaning. If I wanted a price for an item I couldn’t ring but rather email them via a convoluted form whereby you had to nominate your nearest store and write rather than click a box stating ‘I’d like to know the price’ etc.

    An auto generated email is sent to you stating that a person will be in touch with you within 24 hours with your answer.

    It beggars belief that this retailer is still in business. A website that is difficult to navigate and with critical information such as price etc omitted.

    What a joke! However and somewhat ironically the IKEA website is just as bad as you cannot order online.

  31. [adrian
    Posted Wednesday, March 4, 2015 at 8:18 pm | PERMALINK
    It is strange how suddenly the leadership died down from Sunday. It was a bit like the cicadas suddenly stopping on a Summer day when a dark cloud moves over the Sun as a thunderstorm approaches.

    Strange too how a new poll is suddenly accorded superstar status previously only given to Newspoll. And suddenly Abbott can do no wrong.]

    I can’t remember when a Fairfax poll previously received star billing in Murdoch media.

  32. Dio
    The Libs went while shockjocks and social media emoters went berko.
    I imagine the Indonesian embassy would have been reporting back to Jakarta that Indonesians were ‘savages’, that we should blackmail them with our aid, that we should withdraw all contact with them, that there should be a holiday on Bali strike, etc,etc,etc. The embassy would have reported that the Government largely stayed mute in the face of this massive outpouring of often outright racist emoting except when Abbott tried to ride it for populist polling purposes.

    Today was the first day that we heard from senior Liberals that the Indonesian relationship was important and would continue to be important.

  33. whoops, the Libs went silent…

    In other words, the absence of activity would have been read in diplomatic terms as activity.

  34. The Dutch did not entirely waste their four centuries in the NEI.
    The jail now occupied by the Bali duo was built by the Dutch.

  35. The actions of the Indonesian Government today is disgusting, it is clearly a very nasty government that thinks executing two drug losers is a smart way of gaining votes and saying up yours to Australia. I hope we retaliate massively on Monday.

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