The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.
Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.
A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.
Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.
UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.
ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.
However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.
Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.
@melanie_james: Peta Credlin has become a lightning rod for discontent driven by fear | Tom Bentley http://t.co/Ek2XBpnxQN – Excellent analysis
bemused@82: “Care to explain how Gillard could have got Rudd to resign from Parliament even if she had a huge majority?”
Obviously she couldn’t have forced him to resign from Parliament, but she almost certainly have been able – after he had been given a suitable number of chances to stop undermining her to the Press Gallery – to have him expelled from the Parliamentary Party for disloyalty and moved forcefully against his core handful of supporters. She would have been able to use the “either he goes or I go” form of brinkmanship.
It would have been an extreme measure, but she would have had to try it IMO. As things stood, she couldn’t.
sustainable: Getting rid of Credlin would be seen as a “reboot” and listening to the backbench. So Tone will have to throw her over the side (though I hear was briefly says).
The strange thing here though is that there is no clear replacement. We keep throwing around half-a-dozen names. That’s not how it usually works when PMs get booted (though it’s far from impossible). Things haven’t got to the point where opposition has coalesced around a particular name or ticket, which surely has to happen.
So I think that Tone is safe for quite a while
BTW, I don’t believe that the Libs feel that they have no choice but to stick with Abbott. It feels to me like an almost inevitable process has begun and it can only end with a leadership spill.
TPOF
[If that was not a rhetorical question, they gave Minchin the NY consul position that they took off Steve Bracks because they were against jobs for the boys.]
Sorry, got called away.
It was partly rhetorical, but what a world of meaning is contained in your response!!
It seems the Greens are trying to drum up some community opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – good on them!
The documents leaked to date on the substance of the TPP indicate a hyper-corporate agreement that essentially abrogates any notions of national sovereignty regarding labour and environmental standards, taxation and intellectual property, all in favour of an international court that is staffed by corporate appointees and can overrule national laws on a whim.
In short, if you like the gritter, meaner, smaller, nastier versions of cyberpunk, you’ll love the TPP.
If only one of the major parties were willing to either oppose this deal, or at least go public with what the details involve….oh, wait – Labor negotiated this, and the Liberals are closing the deal.
And certain people around here have wondered why I hold Labor to be not much better than the Coalition…it’s times like this that it gets hard to see much daylight between Labor and the Coalition.
How do we all know that the TPP is bad for everyone except the multinationals?
The secrecy. A certain level of discretion regarding treaty negotiations is traditional, but the wall of secrecy around the TPP takes it to a new level, and amounts to national legislatures being told to ratify the treaty without being told what’s in it!
Matt
Earlier, someone suggested Robb as part of the replacement team for Abbott. Since Robb is dumb enough to support the signing of the TPP and IMO has not done Australia much good in his free trade negotiations, I do trust they won’t give him any more authority.
I am thinking that certain members of the LNP are googling “impact of trip wires on cyclists” and “can laser beams cause bike accidents” or “risk of drowning in ironman races”
Henry@90
After the 2010 election, there was nothing that could be done. There are processes to go through if he were to be expelled and I doubt they would have succeeded. If they did, he would sit as a cross-bencher. There is no way he could have been forced out of his seat no matter what delusions some seem to be under.
Anyone asking the “loyal girl” if she still is?
meher baba@100
You are dreaming.
meher baba @ 102 – it’s only inevitable because that has become the culture in this country. We (the citizens, the media and the politicans) have made the position of Prime Minister the holy grail of Australian politics. It’s self-defeating as no single person can run a whole country and the second they get the job there is a massive target painted on their back.
Forget fighting over the Prime Ministership. We should encourage attempts to diffuse power to the ministers, a strong cabinet process and quality candidates.
All this talk about Tony Abbott being replaced, I think is helped along by conservative journos etc who know he is unelectable, I can only go on what I hear around here a very National Party area, they have mainly stopped supporting LNP because of Tony Abbott and a lesser extent Joe Hockey and Chris Pyne. If an acceptable alternate leader was put in place they will all revert back to LNP.Mind you who? they don’t like Julie Bishop(know about asbestos etc) Much as I dread it I think Scottie M would be their choice. Heaven help us!!!
Presumably bemused the national executive can disendorse whoever they want in extreme circumstances. I’m guessing they didn’t because they probably guessed that Rudd would have stuck around as an independent, causing further chaos for the ALP as they would have needed his vote. If the ALP had a big enough majority I’m of the view the ALP would have turfed him out. He would have then resigned because for Rudd it’s all about the power. Being an independent and the ALP having a clear majority would have rendered him useless.
daretotread I would be looking at getting me some sharks with fricken laser beams on their heads
There has been very few comments of recent date on the possibility of Abbott getting a whiff of a move against him and going to the GG before they have a chance to get rid of him. I am of the belief that he would go down this path. His whole life has been one of a fighter.
Nothing can be ruled out with him.
mari – interesting.
But as Big Ship points out, there can’t be a challenge without challengers.
So who is going to break from cover and call on Tone to resign? Basically, a key figure in his govt has to call him to step down. But a key figure is unlikely to do that unless support has coalesced around him/her to make it worthwhile. Where is the evidence that is happening?
Here is an interesting article on how Thatcher was deposed because Geoffrey Howe withdrew his support.
http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/margaret-thatcher-s-dramatic-1990-fall-stabbed-in-the-front-351588
Would someone like Howard be able to talk to Abbott behind the scenes?
The Victorian Liberals did manage to almost completely surprise everyone by switching leaders only a couple of years ago.
pom
A definite possibility, I’d say – although there may actually be one or two advisers he’d listen to. Talking to a friend this morning who’s convinced Abbott is past reasoning with. “Gone in the head” was a rough approximation. The job has been too much for him.
Bemused @110:
That is correct. Once someone is a (properly-elected – see Tony Abbott’s citizenship) member of Parliament, the only way to force them out is via election.
Luke Miller @113:
An interesting proposition. I can see the merits to making the PM the first among equals once more, rather than a one-person show.
Kevin 17 118
That is very true and your link to Thatcher is very pertinent.. but still think Tony Abbott is the best Asset ALP has.
BTW PBers, I have put some of your brilliant comments on Twitter(I know many of you have said go ahead) hope noone minds, in most cases there have been huge responses.My thanks anyway
Against the tide of opinion here, I can see Abbott’s Knightmare dissipating somewhat in the weeks ahead, to the point where Abbott has a final chance to get his leadership back on track. (There may be some element of wishful thinking on my part in wanting Abbott to stay on..)
Still, I think we have to factor in the fact we’re in the last gasp of the silly season. The annual news vacuum (Charlie Hebdo and other notable events notwithstanding) has left this vast gulf into which Abbott has nose-dived. It’s easy to forget that once the regular news cycle picks up, this will all retreat into the background as some kind of summer madness over what is essentially an inconsequential matter. Yes of course, the leadership issue will bubble to the surface when the Coalition partyroom meets in early February, but even by then, I would predict our attention will be elsewhere.
The other major caveat: if Labor wins Queensland, all bets are off (though hopefully a few year made a handy profit on a Queensland election bet).
Have any of you seen this:
https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/?shva=1#inbox/14b2f43e692c890e?projector=1
Lizzie @108:
Andrew Robb is an (one of many in today’s Parliament) example of the Peter Principle.
This piece in the Guardian as linked by guytaur at 101 is on the money
[Abbott mistakenly believed that, once in office, he could use the resources of government to support a narrative that would satisfy an anxious public and provide a structure through which to attack and destroy his ideological enemies: trade unions, the ABC, public sector health and education systems, the institutional defenders of human rights and equality, and so on. Both of these tasks have proved more difficult than he expected, and his skills of persuasion, coordinated by Credlin, have been found wanting.
The flailing around is, in fact, symptomatic of two much deeper problems.
First, the government does not have a program or a plan with which to address the complex, uncertain circumstances faced by Australia at home and abroad. Combining aggressive economic deregulation with authoritarian traditionalism, as Abbott has tried to do, has already been clearly rejected by the public.
Second, Abbott and the coalition do not have a reservoir of trust and loyalty on which to draw, because their model of leadership – to win public popularity by attacking and destroying its ideological enemies – also destroys trust. This approach began to fall apart with the public reaction to the 2014 budget.]
Speaking of Qld: this from the PB Qld link seems interesting
Newman McGee@27
Henry@115
You are just dreaming.
Replacing a PM did more than enough damage to the party.
To then go and expel him from the party would have gone over real well, I don’t think.
Get used to the idea that there is often a difference between what you would like to do and what is feasible.
Also, it didn’t take long for many to start wondering if the events of June 2010 were a good idea.
In more good news for Greece now that SYRIZA has the reins when the new cabinet was announced on Tuesday, Alpha Bank SA stocks plunged 20%. The stocks of all four major Greeks banks fell an average of 15%, while the yield on three-year government bonds increased two percentage points to exceed 14%.
14%! I can just see Matt, Nicholas and Guytaur piling into that!
Comrades, the best way to fix Greece’s problems is to Greece’s destroy wealth, right?
The Greek stock exchange as a whole only dropped 5%.
– See more at: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/01/27/new-greek-finance-minister-bailout-a-vicious-cycle/#sthash.zH9O87Oq.dpuf
But wait. There is more. In excellent news for one of world’s greatest peace-loving democrats, aka Putin, SYRIZA is also threatening to veto Europe’s sanctions against Russia.
But wait. There is still more. Tsipras has chosen Kammenos as his partner in Coalition. Nice guy, Kammenos: anti-semite, anti-secularist, anti-islamic, anti-buddhist… just the sort of person your average Greens supporter dotes on.
Murdoch has tweeted, I understand, that Credlin must go.
If so, she’s safe.
Point worth noting from my Morgan poll update above:
[Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster.]
MTBW@125
Your ID and password please. 😆
meher
[Obviously she couldn’t have forced him to resign from Parliament, but she almost certainly have been able – after he had been given a suitable number of chances to stop undermining her to the Press Gallery – to have him expelled from the Parliamentary Party for disloyalty and moved forcefully against his core handful of supporters. She would have been able to use the “either he goes or I go” form of brinkmanship.]
Have you ever been a member of the ALP?
You appear to have all the answers to fix the ALP and not much about the real problem in the Parliament being Abbott.
Can we cut the continual comments on whatever is happening in Labor and deal with the real problem.
bemused@133
Beat me to it!
Perhaps only one thing is guaranteed: if this mob try to decapitate their leader, they will f… it up like they’ve f… up everything else. Tone won’t go, there will be blood everywhere and there will be no clear replacement candidate.
I mean, what happens if there is a spill and three or four people throw their hats in the ring and one of them only wins by a few votes, like last time? What will that say about party unity. What sort of authority will the next leader have?
[ alias
Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 5:40 pm | Permalink
Against the tide of opinion here, I can see Abbott’s Knightmare dissipating somewhat in the weeks ahead, to the point where Abbott has a final chance to get his leadership back on track. (There may be some element of wishful thinking on my part in wanting Abbott to stay on..) ]
Can’t see his problems with the Senate, this years and last years Budgets improving or the continual breaking of election promises and then lying about same are going to help him in the polls or his leadership.
The ongoing attacks on Medicare, IR/ Workchoices 2.0, increasing unemployment, reduction of services and reduction of funding across the board won’t help either.
Nor will the world economic situation and reduction in demand for our commodities and reduction in their prices.
As Kohler said yesterday, we are getting austerity via the budget cuts as well as a form of QE with a dropping AUD – and hockey is threaten even more cuts.
So, what is he going to do that will get him ‘back on track’ after all their main reaction seems to be to keep digging deeper.
Also noticed today he is back to being very hesitant in his speech – as if he’s shit scared of stuffing up again.
This says so much to me of the situation he is in –
Plus his mouth of course.
[ALP support rose to 56.5% (up 2%) on Australia Day weekend, well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,057 Australian electors aged 18+.
Primary support for the ALP rose to 39.5% (up 1%) now ahead of the L-NP 37.5% (down 1%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (up 2.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 3% (up 1%) while Independents/ Others were down 3.5% to 8%.]
Even taking into account the “house bias” of Morgan, this is sure to frighten the horses in the LNP, especially in light of the open ridicule the PM is currently copping.
I wonder if Abbott has ever seen the movie “Dead Man Walking”?
Whilst I agree that the most likely scenario to de-Abbott is for first a (close to) majority to coalesce around a preferred challenger, there might be an outside chance of a stalking horse being used as per how Abbott got there in the first place.
I agree with Meher that it’s gone too far now for at least a challenge not to eventuate some time before the election and probably this year. The Libs will be trying to work out amongst themselves right now who they are going to get behind. But what if they can’t agree on just one name?
Long odds I know, but you could find a Kevin Andrews to blow it open with a challenge (probably not Kevin this time – maybe a Dutton or similarly useless drone). The mere fact that the challenge is called will fatally weaken Abbott and those who may have supported him in the behind the scenes stuff will have to face up to the reality of him being on the out. That could see two (or more) canditates put their hands up. Like I said, long odds (they’ll want to get so much support behind a single challenger that Abbott won’t contest, but not many of their wishes are coming true lately) but if more than one serious contender is determined to give it a crack it might be the only way for them to break the impasse.
The odds of them just going down with the skipper at the next election without at least trying something just don’t seem very likely to me even though I’d much prefer they did.
Abbott could always sneak off to fight on behalf of the Pashmerga to stop genocide and human rights violations.
After all, he is dead keen on OP’s wars.
Matt
[Andrew Robb is an (one of many in today’s Parliament) example of the Peter Principle.]
Agree. But he’s wily with it. He rose from his sick bed to make sure that the climate deniers won.
So I stuffed up again I will go stand in the naughty corner!
It was a good clip though.
Gecko
Results of a @Y7News/ReachTEL poll on @TonyAbbottMHR’s ‘knightmare’ will leave you stunned.
They are all doing a PVO !
It is good to see that someone has finally got to the Prime Minister for Women and he is taking somewhat of a national lead on domestic violence via COAG.
The remit I heard is rather limited as I understand it: avos from one state would automatically apply to all jurisdictions – but it is to be hoped that Abbott actually listens to Batty and takes the anti-domestic violence agenda a lot further and a lot faster.
On this issue, national moral leadership from the prime minister is very important.
Just got a tweet by email from a friend who has twitter which I don’t but this is what it says:
[The Daily Rupert @TheMurdochTimes 3h3 hours ago Australia’s foreign minister @JulieBishopMP. She just met with @RupertMurdoch in NYC. He wants her to replace Abbott.]
MTBW
You cannot link to something that appears on your computer. The link has to refer to something already published on the web.
All true Dave, and all compelling. Still, I can’t help sensing this immediate crisis will look rather different a week hence, especially if Abbott can do something vaguely useful to take the heat off. I think the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd factor will continue to loom impossibly large when it comes to switching leaders, even though they all know Abbott’s a fool.
guytaur at 101/Victoria
The Guardian article.
Not a bad article but I would nit pick the last sentence quoted:
[This approach began to fall apart with the public reaction to the 2014 budget.]
That’s shallow journalism that fails the reality test.
A quick glance at Bludger Track shows that 6 months and within a couple of months of the election, well before the budget, the ALP vote rose steeply and the COALition plummeted and for at least 4 months before the budget the ALP was ahead in the polls.
5% of Australian voters had reversed their election vote and swung away from the COALition before the budget loomed.
Then reaction to the proposed and later actual budget policies exacerbated the rejection of the COALition and the ALP 2PP climbed from a lead in the low 50s up to the mid 50s.
Its lazy journalism and a rewriting of history to subscribe the woes of the COALition to the budget.
The wheels were falling off in 2013.
lizzie
Thanks Lizzie that explains it. 🙂
The Sir Phil cartoons get better and better!
