The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.
Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.
A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.
Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.
UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.
ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.
However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.
Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.
And this Morgan pre The latest Abbott BrainFart ™
ratsak
I am with you on a bigger role for Robb.
I offered the view last last year that he looked like a man who was not happy. It may be that he has done good things in Trade but I suspect he always had his eye on bigger things
Like treasury. He was finance spokesman I think in opposition and would be dismayed at having to sit and watch hockey fumbling about.
At age 63 the clock is running in his career.
[ This is why I say it will be Turnbull. ]
As LOTO from September 2008 to 1 December 2009, 14 mths, he didn’t really set the world on fire – see Williams Charts on the right hand side of the page.
OK it was early days for Labor and it was years ago, but all the same – he never made much of an impression on the Labor lead – just going on the chart.
Presumably he would also be expected to retain the main tory policies on climate change, GST, Work Choices 2.0, Boats, Minerals Tax etc while reducing further or abolishing the services voters want – Medicare etc.
Dead weights policies on any new or current leader.
Frydenberg is in a very safe seat – Kooyong (menzie’s seat) – he’s a kroger factionite but probably still connected with costello, and economically IPA/bone-dry – well connected with the right people in the melbourne establishment. He is close to Abbott, and Abbott might insist on him getting the gong as a condition of him stepping aside. On social policies he’d be a libertarian, so would be seen as ‘progressive’ compared to most of the hard right in his party. he’s basically cut from the same cloth as Chris Berg or Tim Wilson. He’s very intelligent, not a bad communicator and appears to be able to fake humanity better than most of the sociopaths in the party. he wants the top job, so anyone with him as treasurer would want to be wary down the track. If morrison was seen as too mad, they might just go straight to him – then Abbott could claim he’s stepping aside for ‘generational change’. He’s a bit scary -he’ll be their leader and probably PM at some point.
[ I’d back Hockey as more likely to run with Bishop if he thought Abbott was definitely a goner. Only possible scenario that doesn’t see him demoted.]
I’d be very unsurprised if he ran; I’d be very surprised if he got anywhere.
Sure, Robb’s not the least likely deputy by a long shot. I think that he no longer qualifies under criterion 2 above as a leadership contender though.
[ I’d back Hockey as more likely to run with Bishop if he thought Abbott was definitely a goner. Only possible scenario that doesn’t see him demoted. ]
While it is his only hope Obi Wan, would be a pretty remote chance that he doesn’t get demoted though surely? Even in terms of the “Its the Messaging, not the Message” delusion the Libs seem to be operating under, Hockey has FAIL stamped on his fore head in big red letters and has to be too closely identified with the Abbott period they will want to move on from.
Here is the problem, via ER
[The Government received negative ratings for all issues except relations with other countries (net +5).]
[This is why I say it will be Turnbull. As far as I know he is the closest they have.]
I didn’t realist Baird was that bad.
SF at 29:
[I think abbott will be very strongly pressured to step aside and if he doesn’t they will not challenge him – just keep the pressure on. I am sure they are putting together a retirement packaging and face-saving alibi right now – a health issue for margie is my guess. he’ll claim he achieved what he set out to do, but it is time for him to put family first, etc. He’ll have his mortgage paid (maybe a bigger place) and pick up a highly paid media ‘job’ and/or consultancy providing a six or seven figure pay out for services rendered.]
Perhaps Abbott could be appointed Ambassador to Russia. He “speaks” the same sort of language is Putin and they did seem to get on well cuddling Koalas together.
Latest morgan poll is in: ALP support rose to 56.5% (up 2%) on Australia Day weekend, well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.
Good news keeps getting better!
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6043-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-january-28-2015-201501280418
I think the LNP is rooted for the next election.
I have no idea if they will change leader, or who they will choose if they do. Turnbull is the most voter friendly, and the one I would fear most, but he is not a unifying force in the party, which will be badly bruised after ripping Abbott out.
The problem for the LNP is their hard right. They are happy to wreck the joint to get their way, and their way isn’t what the electorate want. Abbott kept them disciplined, but now his authority is gone the most likely outcome is the party will become a rabble…. whatever they do.
while he’s at it, I wonder if abbott has apologised to the windsors?
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/prince-philip-knighthood-tony-abbotts-mini-mea-culpa-a-chance-gone-begging-20150128-1300d7.html
he has publicly humiliated the Duke of Edinburgh and, by association, the Queen by stirring up a ‘that dickhead gets a knighthood!!?’ sentiment.
abbott has done more for the republican cause than any other – although the ‘no’ campaign could win with the a picture of abbott and the caption ‘Australians voted this bloke to be PM in a landslide, and you want them to vote for president? No thanks’
WWP
I said the closest. Baird is not on the same level as any of the federal liberals as the polling attests.
Turnbull is the closest to him. However in maybe only as in the closest in the mini chasing the formula 1 car.
[I’d be very unsurprised if he ran; I’d be very surprised if he got anywhere. ]
Hockey as Bishop’s deputy is what I meant if not clear. He’d be no show as leader, but could credibly claim Abbott screwed the budget and has enough of a support base that would make him valuable to Bishop as a running mate. Also it would appeal to conservatives as being the minimal change. You know how much they hate change. If they can delude themselves that it’s all about Abbott being a tool (and you can bet they will) then Julie can offer to just punt him and make as few other changes as possible. That would probably be attractive to the current ministers, but less so obviously to hungry back benchers (which is Morrison’s opening).
ER’s ‘support’ scores foir the government have moved in these directions since September 2014
Foreign -10
Pro business 0
AS -3
Economy -8
IR +1
Environment -5
Pro-jobs -3
Education -2
Climate change 0
Welfare -2
Health -4
A pile of negatives in Sept [only in one area was the govt perceived positively] has become static [2 areas] or even more negative [9 areas].
Bad, getting worse.
Does anybody know if either of these polls (Essential, Morgan) were taken after Abbott’s imbecility became global headlines on Monday?
The chances of Tony Abbott stepping down are near zero, in my view. Any would-be challenger will have to blast him out of his bunker to secure the top job, and none of the current crop of Liberal pretenders has the will, or the fire power to oust the rat-cunning PM.
Lest we forget, Abbott’s mentor is JW Howard, the unflushable former PM who refused to even meet with the weak-kneed delegation of Downer and Co on behalf of the eunuch Costello, sending them away from his door in 2007 with a disdainful wave of his palsied hand.
Does anyone seriously believe that Abbott won’t burn the entire Liberal village to the ground before he’d give up the job he’s lied and schemed for since his pugilistic days at Sydney Uni?
The ‘beyond the pale’ crypto socialist Turnbull is entirely unpalatable to the right wing MPs that now infest the Liberals, the teflon Julie Bishop hasn’t got the guts to challenge, and the lame duck Hockey is now a mere punching bag for our bellicose PM.
That leaves only SS Minister Scott Morrison, now the recipient of the poisoned chalice of the portfolio for depriving pensioners of their entitlements …. good luck with that vote loser.
No, it’s Abbott as leader for good, or ill, and the Coalition are stuck with him for the duration of their now (one) term limited tenure of the Treasury benches.
Rupert has publicly demanded that Abbott sack Credlin, thereby making it impossible for Abbott to dismiss her. Credlin can thank Rupert for saving her job at least until Abbott first loses his.
Ohhhh well Mr Potato Head and his Tin Soldier are up for a Presser right now.
It has got to be all Labors fault no doubt.
I (and I’m sure everyone in the ALP) hope you’re right Warwick, but desperation can work wonders.
briefly
Exactly. Which is why it may be seen as get Abbott sacked instructions to his papers and to the Liberals.
sprocket_@51
Conducted 23rd – 27th.
“@shanebazzi: General Campbell: no known deaths as a result of our OSB activities in 2014 – Reza? Hamid?”
If Abbott doesn’t want to go, I don’t see what the Liberals can do. I think they just have to make it work. Put PM Abbott on ribbon cutting duty and let the inner cabinet run the show. I still think the Liberals can easily turn it around by next election if they do fair and modest cuts to spending and fair and modest increases in taxes.
I know the temptation is there to say “just one more leadership change and then things will be right” but Australians need to stop the churn at the top … it doesn’t fix anything.
The other side of politics should be doing the hard policy legwork now or risk being outflanked if the libs get it together.
jeffemu
The fashion for Immigration ministers turning up attached to a tame uniform is a pretty sad state of affairs.
[ Luke Miller
Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 4:18 pm | Permalink
If Abbott doesn’t want to go, I don’t see what the Liberals can do. ]
Time will tell if they have the nads to vote him out.
Hopefully they won’t.
ratsak – agree. There is no way that the Sweat Machine will give up Treasury easily and no new leader could afford to have him unhappily stirring up trouble on the back bench. So it would be a Bishop (figurehead) Hockey ticket.
37
dave
Good points.
[All very messy and problematic. So his his staying on.
Train wreck.]
Yep. And those of us, like me, who don’t have the option of fleeing the country have no choice but to ride it out and live with the consequences, as best we can.
[Perhaps Abbott could be appointed Ambassador to Russia. He “speaks” the same sort of language is Putin and they did seem to get on well cuddling Koalas together.] 😀
it’d be safer to send him to a country without nukes. outer Mongolia perhaps? I doubt he’ll want/get a government post – too much work for him. he’ll just be looked after financially and asked not to say anything in public for a few years. The family of Billy McMahon will be grateful to have ‘worst PM ever’ mantle passed on to abbott.
dave@27: Abbott will certainly go quietly.
Rudd was a highly unusual case: a largely self-made man who, throughout both his public service and political careers, was perpetually thrusting himself forward.
Abbott is a man who has done relatively little to advance himself, and has depended almost entirely on mentoring and patronage from others (Packer, Hewson, Howard, Minchin, Murdoch).
If removed from office, Abbott will look to his past patrons to guide him as to what to do next. Perhaps Murdoch or Jamie Packer will give him a job. Or perhaps he will look for his successor to line him up with some sort of international natural disaster response role.
What he won’t do is depart to the backbench and try to undermine his successor. Rudd was only really able to get away with doing that because Gillard could not afford to risk a by-election in his seat. The Coalition has a comfortable majority and Abbott’s seat is one of the safest Liberal seats in Australia. If Abbott tried to do what Rudd did, he would quickly become ostracised within the party and his patrons and mentors would abandon him.
That’s probably less the case with Hockey, but I still think he’d go quietly in expectation of a suitable ambassadorship down the track.
mb
Disagree. abbott will damage those who damaged him IMO.
As I’ve said above, Labor can dismiss any of this current lot from Government appointments the minute they regain power. This current government have set the precedent.
Big Ship – You do make a lot of sense. It is possible to interpret Rupe’s tweet as a frustrated attempt to bolster Abbott (by blaming Credlin) because there are NO other options.
meher baba@79
Care to explain how Gillard could have got Rudd to resign from Parliament even if she had a huge majority?
Pyongyang beckons.
Dutton
[People have not lost trust and confidence in the PM]
[The other side of politics should be doing the hard policy legwork now or risk being outflanked if the libs get it together.]
The strong evidence shows that this is not how you win power in this country.
You win power by staying away from controversy and letting the other side fall over, as the Libs did fairly effectively and as Shorten is doing now.
[I still think the Liberals can easily turn it around by next election if they do fair and modest cuts to spending and fair and modest increases in taxes.]
Probably beyond their current mindset to even consider any such thing, and that is not likely to change anytime soon.
Can somebody please elaborate on the Abbott LNP ‘doomsday’ scenario? I think it definitely needs to be taken seriously. That would be the the equivalent of Abbott pressing the red button in the nuclear briefcase.
Basically, the idea is that if Abbott is feeling cornered and humiliated, and sensing a leadership spill – he would call a snap double dissolution (based on the Clean Energy Bill trigger) and roll the dice and the chances of his leadership at a federal election.
Most likely, he would have already predicted a catastrophic wipeout of the party in the event of a snap election taken while the polls are terrible – and in keeping with this strategy, ensure no other minister could steal the lucrative PM prize from him.
In other words, he will go down with the ship – legacy and crew into a watery political grave that would have no historical precedent – and a martyr for his cause.
Could it happen?
[People have not lost trust and confidence in the PM]
… only morons ever had any of either.
True! Patrick Bateman @ 84
But you stay in power by having your fingers in the zeitgeist … and that requires formulating a consistent vision for the country of considerable breadth and depth.
Perhaps the Liberals could later this year pull off a switcheroo and have Abbott resign both the leadership and his seat to be replaced by Baird.
This speaks for itself!
Bemused, I’m assuming the ALP could have disendorsed Rudd from his seat/the party. That would have been too risky for the ALP to contemplate given the hung parliament and the likelihood of losing Rudd’s seat to the conservatives if he had quit in response to being turfed out of the party.
K17
Murdoch bagging Credlin to take heat off abbott?
That is drawing a very long bow.
Abbott has said himself the knighthood was all his own work.
If he had any balls he would have stood up today and reminded Rupert that he is in no position to talk about australia and patriotism
“”This is why I say it will be Turnbull. As far as I know he is the closest they have to Baird.””
Turnbull has WRECKED the most futuristic piece of infrastructure
this country desperately needed, it will cost Billions to repair!.
He also is a hypocrite, as he has invested money in both France and Britain in their FTTP to the HOME!.
rossmcg – This is like Kremlin Watching. But I sense the libs feel they’re stuck with Tone (because there are no credible and acceptable replacements). Therefore, they need someone (anyone) who can keep him on message and on his meds and stop him being a dickhead between now and the next election (good luck to that). So they blame Credlin for not keeping the moron under control. Plus, she’s a woman, of course, which makes her an easy target etc etc.
1934
Yes. My statement remains true.
“@MarkDiStef: It’s on #Tay4CoS”
Thats Taylor Swift for Chief of Staff
K17
Kremlin watching. I like it.
I know little of soviet politics but I seem to recall that a few people disappeared suddenly over the years and were sometimes replaced by someone the watchers hardly knew of…
[If Abbott doesn’t want to go, I don’t see what the Liberals can do. I think they just have to make it work. Put PM Abbott on ribbon cutting duty and let the inner cabinet run the show. ]
he can’t be trusted with scissors or being the public face of the party. he’s at the point where not only are people not listening but they are hostile to anything he says. the media will not let this go until there is some sort of ‘result’ – a resignation (abbott or credlin) or challenge. pressure will be on abbott to resign gracefully or to purge credlin (and probably hockey and pyne) and then STFU. he’ll be told/made to agree that if he can’t get the TPP back to 50:50 by ‘X’ date he’ll be asked to resign.
Ltep
[Perhaps the Liberals could later this year pull off a switcheroo and have Abbott resign both the leadership and his seat to be replaced by Baird]
Give the location of their electorates the switcheroo could be performed down at the Corso or maybe between Manly and Queenscliff beaches in suitable attire (or at St Patricks on the headland).