The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.
Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.
A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.
Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.
UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.
ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.
However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.
Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.
but managing the economy is also down solidly from plus 6% to plus 14%.
Think you might have your percentages backwards, William.
Thanks, corrected.
[Think you might have your percentages backwards, William.]
Actually, they should be minuses, not pluses.
J341983
@2665 – that assumes he was telling the truth.
In this instance there is no reason to protect Credlin by lying.
If he said he consulted her it was still his captain’s call in the end. If he did consult her and she disagreed with the decision then again, he simply had to say at the end of the day it was a captain’s call although my COS was against it.
For once, on this one, Abbott may be telling the truth.
So they should. That’s what I get for not looking at the primary source.
From last thread:
I’m fairly confident in Bishop v Morrison for the leadership contest in the event the bus is driven over Abbott.
I wouldn’t rate Turnbull as a gimme for Bishop’s deputy, but it would certainly be the best change/electoral appeal option.
Somewhere up there {points} I suggested the criteria for a Morrison deputy: non-NSW, non-crazy, non-Bishop. Unless you think that any of Ciobo, Dwyer, Frydenberg, Hunt, Keenan, Robb are goers then Pyne seems the obvious choice.
The CPCF v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection and Anor, won by the Commonwealth in the High Court today, involved the proposal to take Tamils approaching Australia back to India.
The case morphed into a damages claim once the persons were brought to Australia.
I wonder if Dutton will do a press conference?
[Surely the libs are smarter than Labor and Tony would resign without a challenge.]
I guess one should never underestimate the delusional megalomania of political leaders, but certainly I would expect Abbott to be more amenable to offers to look after him right than either of the Rullards would have been (for various reasons).
the bloke holding both sides to the barbed wire canoe and rocking wildly calls for a steady ship.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-tony-abbott-makes-calls-to-steady-ship-20150127-12z3wd.html
and his big boss tells him to make a tough decision – sack his boss. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rupert-murdoch-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-make-cruel-choice-and-sack-peta-credlin-20150128-12zvy8.html
Will credlin be given a senate seat? Maybe a damehood?
This makes House of Cards series 2 look like playschool, but with Congress Underwood played by Peter Sellers in ‘Being There’ Chance Gardener or possibly Inspector Clouseau mode. Love it.
I am inclined to think that Abbott will go quietly(ish) if he is made an offer substantial enough to keep him in the lifestyle he believes is his birthright, especially if he really hasn’t renounced his British citizenship and his own party start pointing out the possible financial consequences for him.
But he also seems to have that weird hair-shirt Catholic martyr thing going on in his head, and may choose to go down fighting, just to piss off everybody who crossed him (which will, in his mind, be pretty much everybody at that point), and to convince himself that he fought the good fight and can hold his head high.
I think BB is right, his only real allegiance is to himself. All others are there only to further his ‘interests’, and hence are expendable.
[Actually, they should be minuses, not pluses.]
Hope I’ve got it right this time …
Obviously already worried about carrying the uni reforms over to this year’s budget
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pynes-senate-ultimatum-pass-higher-education-reform-by-march-20150128-1300gx.html
The Tamil refugee case was decided by the HC 4-3 to the Commonwealth in a very long judgment.
William, from the second sentence in your post:
On the primary vote, Labor is one to 41%,…
Presumably should read: Labor is up one…
[ Bishop may not want Abbott to have the chance to completely screw up another budget. If she waits till after the Budget she’ll only have less than one year to actually lead. I don’t think that’s enough time to fully realise the benefits of incumbency. ]
True, but as others have said, Bishop has a history of screwing up domestic focused portfolios. doGs but this is ALL so up in the air that the Libs must be having a hell of a time working out what to do. They are really i think, in a position of picking a “least worst” option at the moment.
Budget 2015 will be the biggie i reckon that will provide the best indicator of who are the actual powers within the Libs. Will they pick someone to replace Abbott before then and require then to conform to whatever party policy is, or do it after and let them lead policy?? Its a fwarking mess.
one good thing midst the detritus – murdoch’s control suddenly transparent – his influence on papers is immediate and clear for all to see – lots of fallout going on
In bring into this thread, other recent polling…
ReachTEL Federal marginals poll http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/28/coalition-mps-trail-in-eight-out-of-11-marginals-as-budget-issues-bite-poll-says
https://www.getup.org.au/about/media-room
Link with more on the ReachTEL includes PDF links within
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6026-how-australians-feel-about-marijuana-201501272145
To legalise or not to legalise? How Australians feel about marijuana
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6044-executions-andrew-chan-myuran-sukumaran-january-2015-201501270609
Australians think Andrew Chan & Myuran Sukumaran should be executed
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6025-half-of-australians-believe-their-responsibility-is-to-help-the-worlds-poor-september-2014-201501160112
What world poverty? My responsibility is just to other Australians, one in five say
Can someone explain to me how anyone can possibly suggest Morrisson as a viable PM/leader?
He has to be the most unlikeable politician in the current parliament.
Surely after Abbott they will learn their lesson and go with someone who isn’t going to provoke active hostility from a large portion of the electorate?
[ “People can’t have their cake and eat it too. When a vote comes you have to say yes or you have to say no.” ]
Yes Christopher, but that means you have to actually put it to a vote you d$ckhead.
And if all you have is a threat to cut University funding more come Budget time then you got nuthin pal.
[president of the solipsist society]
Prove it.
Kind regards
President of the Empirico-logical Society
Patrick, I think many people would’ve scoffed at the idea of Abbott as a viable PM/leader at some stage. The one thing he does have going for him is that he is a poster boy for the hard right in the Liberal Party – who seemingly hold a lot of numbers.
Patrick
They may believe Abbott’s mantra that stopping the boats was the top achievement. Many of them seem to be blind to the hostility. “It’s just we’re not good at sales, they say.
[ Surely after Abbott they will learn their lesson and go with someone who isn’t going to provoke active hostility from a large portion of the electorate? ]
Seriously Patrick, what evidence to date makes you think that this lot are capable of learning lessons.
Dont you know that they are here to teach US lessons that we will bloody well learn or suffer for it and that Morrison is just the hard tough manly man to do that!!!
I mean……. look how well having that other manly man in charge is working out for them?? 🙂
Patrick Bateman
I dare say Rear Admiral Morrison plays well out in 2GBland.
Agreed Patrick. Morrison has as his fanbase the bogans in the shire and outer western sydney who like his tough approach to the reffos etc.
He would be a huge turnoff in more progressive places like SA and Vic. More so than Abbott.
If there is to be a change (and I personally reckon Abbott has until approx June/July) then it would be a Bishop/Turnbull ticket.
The Qld LNP MP Stevens seems to be quite a fine type of person.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mermaid-alp-candidate-alleges-rooster-ray-stevens-assault,7305#.VMhevnTM4DZ.twitter
[ meher baba
Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 2:29 pm | Permalink
if Hockey is deposed as Treasurer – or Abbott as PM for that matter – I would expect them to leave politics in a dignified way. ]
Highly unlikely. Particularly in abbott’s case.
IF the federal Liberals are sensible they will look to find amongst there number a Mike Baird.
This is why I say it will be Turnbull. As far as I know he is the closest they have to Baird
[Surely the libs are smarter than Labor and Tony would resign without a challenge.]
I think abbott will be very strongly pressured to step aside and if he doesn’t they will not challenge him – just keep the pressure on. I am sure they are putting together a retirement packaging and face-saving alibi right now – a health issue for margie is my guess. he’ll claim he achieved what he set out to do, but it is time for him to put family first, etc. He’ll have his mortgage paid (maybe a bigger place) and pick up a highly paid media ‘job’ and/or consultancy providing a six or seven figure pay out for services rendered.
what price will the cabal who bankroll this demand? my guess – a hard right replacement of abbott and hockey – Morrison and Robb/Frydenberg (?), and even larger scale slashing of government agencies – stuff that doesn’t need senate approval – dept of environment, BoM, CSIRO abolished and sold off/commercialised, and education and health pared back with the states asked to pick up the shortfall. ABC and SBS functions de-funded and commercialised. anything on the IPA list that does not need the senate will be done, and they’ll lock this in as much as they can by cutting taxes despite the deficit. OR they’ll keep their powder dry until after the election? Morrison makes my skin crawl but he seems to be popular with the swinging bogans who decide elections nowadays. dirty tricks campaign against labor will go full throttle. If Campbell’s – “we’ll only keep promises in electorates we win” ploy is seen to have worked, they’ll use that too.
Can this poll be taken as being an outliar?
That’s a reasonable point too guytaur. Electorally Turnbull would be clearly their best option but internally it seems too many of his far right colleagues don’t have the stomach for his leadership.
very good leon. Personally it looks a little rouge to me.
Henry
If the overriding principle is to stay in power it will be Turnbull. If the overriding principle is the Tea Party policies they will not go near Turnbull
Perhaps they could give Tony ‘people skills’ Abbott the Foreign Affairs position.
After all, there are precedents…..
Where’s Minchin now?
lizzie @ 35
If that was not a rhetorical question, they gave Minchin the NY consul position that they took off Steve Bracks because they were against jobs for the boys.
[ Just Me
Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 2:49 pm | Permalink
I am inclined to think that Abbott will go quietly(ish) if he is made an offer substantial enough to keep him in the lifestyle he believes is his birthright, especially if he really hasn’t renounced his British citizenship and his own party start pointing out the possible financial consequences for him.]
Any Government employment the tories offered him would only have a potential shelf life until labor won an election and given abbott’s record of withdrawing Labor’s appointments eg Bracks, Labor should have no problem returning the favour.
Some years ago the media reported abbott had debts of about $800k. Later the media said this had been ‘refinanced’. Even with low interest rates, it would still be a big amount. He may even have only been on interest only.
So any move on would need to take that into account – maybe a rich tory could ‘help out’ but that could backfire if it became public.
Alternatively it might be posibble for him to take some of his super as a lump sum to clear the debt, but then its eating into his and his wifes retirement provision.
Who in the private sector would give abbott a senior job until he is 65 plus ? Who could as most have shareholders to answer to? What sort of job is he really qualified for at a salary level he would expect?
Would it all be legal even if all the above were resolved.
Its all looks a huge ask to me particularly as it also requires abbott to overcome his basic instinct to strike out at anyone who forced him out as PM.
All very messy and problematic. So his his staying on.
Train wreck.
[Obviously already worried about carrying the uni reforms over to this year’s budget
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pynes-senate-ultimatum-pass-higher-education-reform-by-march-20150128-1300gx.html%5D
or what? they’ll called a DD?
I think there should be discussion around unis that opt to deregulate/increase their fees get less government funding/HECS and/or have to offer full and partial scholarships for say 30% of their intake, with means testing of parents and acceptance scores standarised according to the performance of the schools students went to.
“@mumbletwits: “The prime minister, Mr Morrison, announced today that … “”
One bad thing out of this, I think Abbott may have used his last ‘Captain’s Call’.
[ poroti
Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 3:05 pm | Permalink
Patrick Bateman
I dare say Rear Admiral Morrison plays well out in 2GBland.
]
My $$$$$ are on Madam La Cucaracha ……AKA Miss Bishop ….. able to survive nuclear explosions and out live them all ….
[Can someone explain to me how anyone can possibly suggest Morrisson as a viable PM/leader?
He has to be the most unlikeable politician in the current parliament.]
1) Can at least claim to have achieved their brief in government (a criterion that is failed by all but Bishop and – at a stretch – non-contenders Macfarlane and Robb and – an even bigger stretch – to contender Turnbull).
2) Is the right sort of person: male, married, kids, christian. Bishop fails.
3) Acceptable to both hard and soft right. Turnbull fails.
Sure, he comes across to me as a slavering beast, and I’m not certain all of these criteria will be met by a hypothetical challenger, but AFAICT he is the only contender that meets them.
[ if Hockey is deposed as Treasurer – or Abbott as PM for that matter – I would expect them to leave politics in a dignified way. ]
I reckon Hockey would go to full, sweaty, lip quivering tanty mode.
Abbott, simply shuddering brainlock. Although, an indicator of any party room move against him may be ambulance / first aiders put on alert in Parliament House and hanging around in the corridors?? 🙂
[ Surely the libs are smarter than Labor and Tony would resign without a challenge. ]
I thought that and have said for months that the most likely thing would be for Abbott to quietly resign for health reasons. After this weekend its way past time for that to be even passably credible and now any fallout will definitely stick to Credlin as well. This lot just are not as smart as people have assumed they are.
[ a hard right replacement of abbott and hockey – Morrison and Robb/Frydenberg ]
You know, thinking about it Frydenberd could be a contender for Treasurer?? Newbie, but maybe has less baggage than other contenders who are all pretty lame. Stepping up for that rather fraught gig may get him a reputation as a solid and brave soldier for the party that would serve him well later on. Is he in a safe seat??
[ If Campbell’s – “we’ll only keep promises in electorates we win” ploy is seen to have worked, they’ll use that too. ]
Is it just me, or is that really the most stupid political statement made in recent campaigning??
Not being in QLD i haven’t seen much reporting on that. Has it been dismissed as simply too OT silly and gotten buried??
[IF the federal Liberals are sensible they will look to find amongst there number a Mike Baird.
This is why I say it will be Turnbull. As far as I know he is the closest they have to Baird.]
Clearly Bishop and Turnbull would vie for leadership if it were genuinely open.
Behind them, the non-(really-)crazy have Hockey and Pyne, then Hunt, Briggs and Keenan, and even more junior ministers.
So the latter seems not to provide genuine contenders. Bishop and Turnbull it is, from all of them.
As many have said, it’s not the people, it’s not the salesmanship, it’s the policies.
Unless Morrison can reinvent himself as some sort of small l liberal caring christian family man that he said he was In his maiden speech the Tories will still be doomed.
I mean next time a tory gets up and says “no cuts to health, education, pensions etc …” People will just fall about laughing.
[Is it just me, or is that really the most stupid political statement made in recent campaigning??]
As my partner observed: people expect that to be the case as an analysis of the situation, but it’s quite outrageous for them to articulate it.
I expect that stuff goes down badly with almost everyone.
I wouldn’t discount Robb as a potential running mate for a Morrison tilt at all. Seen as a trusted elder statesman in the party and they’d argue his experience would work as a good foil with the less experienced Morrison. Sort of the older wiser guiding hand thing. Also Robb would be very pleased with Treasurer (deputy gets to choose their portfolio), so I can easily see him going for it and for the Victorians to be supportive as it gets one of their own in a position of power.
He could also turn up as Bishop’s running mate, but I think that’s much less likely. Bishop and Turnbull would be interesting, but what’s in it for Malcolm? Would being treasurer really satisfy? I think he’d happily sit back and wait for the party to come to him rather than help someone else get the job from Abbott. Even to the point of helping Abbott stay afloat – being loyal and supporting the right’s guy can’t hurt him long term can it? I’d back Hockey as more likely to run with Bishop if he thought Abbott was definitely a goner. Only possible scenario that doesn’t see him demoted.
Morgan come on down…
[ALP support rose to 56.5% (up 2%) on Australia Day weekend, well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,057 Australian electors aged 18+.
Primary support for the ALP rose to 39.5% (up 1%) now ahead of the L-NP 37.5% (down 1%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (up 2.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 3% (up 1%) while Independents/ Others were down 3.5% to 8%.
]
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6043-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-january-28-2015-201501280418
[As many have said, it’s not the people, it’s not the salesmanship, it’s the policies.]
Some time ago I observed – and I have no reason to change my opinion – that a change to just about anyone would produce a bounce for the tories but – as with the ALP – set in some of the negative opinion making it harder for any substantial, sustained recovery. Certainly, as you say, without substantial policy change, almost impossible.
[Unless Morrison can reinvent himself as some sort of small l liberal caring christian family man that he said he was In his maiden speech the Tories will still be doomed.]
Unfortunately (or fortunately, in the vanguard sense) I suspect the intent of any of them to change things is low. I have no doubt that Morrison could shift his image within the tolerance for change that any of them would exhibit; he is not in that sense at a relative disadvantage.