Nothing on the public polling front for the Queensland election since Saturday’s odd effort from Newspoll, but this evening’s Seven News will have an Ashgrove poll conducted by ReachTEL last night. There are also reports that Newspoll and Galaxy are in the field, but presumably we won’t see anything from that until Friday. I must get around at some point to adding campaign updates to my election guide entries – when I do, they will say things like this:
• Dennis Atkins wrote in the Courier-Mail on Friday of Labor internal polling showing Campbell Newman’s net approval rating had slid from minus 21% to minus 35% since the campaign began, while Annastacia Palaszczuk had gone from plus 8% to plus 14%. Those who wish to file this under they-would-say-that may of course feel free to do so. However, Michael McKenna of The Australian today reports talk from “LNP insiders” that Newman had blundered when he suggested that Labor had been receiving donations from bikie gangs during Friday’s leaders debate. As one such insider put it: “When he gets stroppy, goes on the attack, his numbers goes down”.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian observes that Campbell Newman’s all-important seat of Ashgrove, “covers a republican stronghold in the failed 1999 referendum largely opposed by the rest of Queensland”, the significance of which at present will not require reiterating.
• Jason Tin of the Courier-Mail today reports that Annastacia Palaszczuk has “launched a final-week blitz of key seats, targeting areas that would require a swing of up to 13.6 per cent to return to Labor”. Yesterday she had visits to the Brisbane seats of Brisbane Central, Pine Rivers and Kallangur wrapped up early, then flew to Cairns and Mackay.
• As of Saturday at least, Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail continued to pitch at the low end of market expectations in his reading of the likely outcome, reporting that “the LNP regaining office after losing between 15 and 20 seats is the outcome insiders from both parties believe will occur”. As for Ashgrove: “Behind the scenes the LNP is confident, maybe overconfident.”
• Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review last week reported that retiring independent MP Liz Cunningham believed her seat of Gladstone was likely to be won by Labor due to local anger over the government’s plan to make the city’s port a key element of its plan to lease public assets to pay down debt. This did not bespeak great confidence for the prospects of independent candidate Craig Butler, who she has endorsed as her successor.
• There is vague talk emerging about Pauline Hanson’s prospects in Lockyer, but it might just be the struggle for a headline talking. In today’s Courier-Mail, Matthew Killoran reports it is “believed” that Hanson “could surprise the field”, while Dennis Atkins relates that “some people on the ground say she is getting plenty of sympathy”. However, Atkins also concedes that “Labor’s standing appears to have recovered enough to put its candidate in second place” – not that Labor is in fact directing preferences to Hanson ahead of the LNP member, Ian Rickuss.
• In an article by Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail, Paul Williams of Griffith University rates highly the chances of independents Chris Foley in Maryborough, who held the seat from 2003 until his defeat in 2012 by Anne Maddern of the LNP, and former local mayor Julie Boyd in Mackay, which is being vacated by Labor’s Tim Mulherin.
• Ray Stevens, the LNP member for the Gold Coast seat of Mermaid Beach, learned the hard way last week about the existence of things called social media and the internet, following his peculiar non-response to questions posed by David Donovan of pro-Labor website Independent Australia. Stevens’ now-famous bird impersonation was caught on camera; Donovan did not prove of a mind to accede to his request that it not be published; and the results went, as the young folks apparently like to say, “viral”. The issue related to Stevens’ contentious involvement in a cable car project on which government approval is pending. Stevens’ long-established point-blank refusal to answer questions on the subject has long been exercising elements of the media, particularly the Gold Coast Bulletin.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail itemises the specific targets of Campbell Newman’s vote-for-us-or-else strategy, on which I had a good deal to say in Crikey yesterday. In Ipswich, a $1.5 million cycling facility would only proceed, according to Newman’s construction, if LNP incumbent Ian Berry was around to put it forward for the government’s Get in the Game program. Lytton MP Neil Symes was likewise the only conceivable person who Newman wished to hear a word about with respect to a promised (if that’s the right word) $300,000 upgrade to the facilities of the Wynnum Manly Seagulls rugby league club, and $100,000 for lighting upgrades for the Wynnum Bugs Rugby Club. Likewise, voters in Bulimba, Rockhampton and Murrumba will respectively know what to do if they want an upgrade to facilities at the Morningside Panthers AFL Club, a $1 million skate facility, and a roundabout upgrade.
• Amid high hopes for their prospects in north Queensland, Annastacia Palaszczuk last week visited the Keppel electorate to promise $30 million in spending on fishing facilities around the state, to be funded by “economic growth”.
• An article from Paul Syvret in the Courier-Mail offers some interesting factoids about electoral geography. In relation to Brisbane Central:
Since 2012 about 42 per cent of the population who were enrolled to vote in the last election have moved out … while the average age of voters has dropped to 42, one of the lowest in the state. In fact, since 2012 there has been a 40 per cent increase in enrolled voters under the age of 30, as thousands of younger Queenslanders move into the medium-high density apartment developments mushrooming in areas such as Bowen Hills, Teneriffe and Kelvin Grove.
And from retiring Labor MP Tim Mulherin concerning his electorate of Mackay:
“The big demographic change began with the mining boom. We had a massive influx of blue collar workers who I initially thought would be natural Labor voters, but they were also affluent, aspirational and earning huge wages; they were swinging voters.” Most of those workers have now left, he says, as the construction phase of the mining boom ebbs. “As things stabilise I don’t expect the wild swings we’ve seen recently,” Mulherin says.
And more generally:
According to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the fastest population growth areas in the state are Pimpama north of the Gold Coast, Woolloongabba, Derragun in Townsville’s outer suburbs, the North Lakes-Mango Hill area in the northern Brisbane seat of Murrumba and Ooralea in South Mackay. Areas around Brisbane such as the Lockyer Valley and the “nappy valley” suburbs like North Lakes and Springfield Lakes recorded the highest nominal population growth in the year to June 2013, with Upper Coomera-Willow Vale (in the electorate of Albert) adding more than 2000 residents in just 12 months.
LNP have switched to airing attack ads, they must be in the poo.
I do not know who will win between LNP and Labor. However at this point, I will be amazed if Newman himself is reelected. He was at risk from the start, and despite the sneak move to start early, the longer the campaign has gone on, the meaner spirited he has looked. The threats to drop promises in electorates the LNP lose will not inspire anyone, nor will the bikie link nonsense.
When he gets stroppy the crazy eyes really pop out, which can’t be popular (even in Queensland).
TBA from previous thread
[Has anyone seen Anna P’s costings yet?]
I’m still waiting for the entirety of Abbott’s 2013 costings. Many are still missing.
And I don’t recall seeing Newman’s 2012 treasury costings too.
I saw the LNP costings in 2010 😀
“”I saw the LNP costings in 2010″”
I remember the Fed costings in 2010!.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA
Balderdash Bludger Bill, Independent Australia is not “pro-Labor” as your allege, it is a progressive non-partisan news website that supports Independents in politics.
https://independentaustralia.net/about
Get your facts right or don’t write at all.
“the LNP regaining office after losing between 15 and 20 seats is the outcome insiders from both parties believe will occur”
Sportsbet odds suggest LNP losing 15 seats is at $31.00 and 20 seats at $9.00. The best odds are the LNP losing 24 seats $5.50.
My best guess is the LNP will lose around 25 seats leaving them with around 50 seats give or take a couple. However the lack of recent polling combined with the weekend’s brain-snaps by Newman and Abbott make any judgement difficult.
The ReachTel poll tonight on Ashgrove will help a little.
My best outcome is for the LNP to win, Newman lose and Nichols to become the new premier. For me that’s would be the trifecta.
If Jarrod Bleijie was to lose his seat that would be the perfect quadrella however that won’t happen.
My seat of Pumicestone is one to watch on Saturday. If the LNP is to lose its majority this seat will likely have to fall to Labor.
One of the key issues has been the QLD government ordering the local council (MBRC) to change it local planning to remove sea rise possibility from the new plan. It has been a bit of a hot issue on the island.
Given the events since the last poll I can’t see the LNP having gained popularity. At the very least they may have dampened the rising tide you’d expect as it became apparent Labor couldn’t win
People have been voting in Ashgrove for a week and Newman has only embarrassed himself since the 51-49 Newpoll. Every other candidate is preferencing him last – I’m fairly confident he’s toast
[One of the key issues has been the QLD government ordering the local council (MBRC) to change it local planning to remove sea rise possibility from the new plan…]
Seriously? And, ‘vote for us or else’? Who on earth would vote for these pricks at all?
Gecko it wasn’t quite as simple as it sounds. MBRC issued maps indicating areas which may be flooded given maximum sea level rises in the future. The problem is that impacted on a lot of properties already developed. You could say the natives were restless.
David
I think I agree with your assessment.
The other seat that might be interesting is Mogill. The kerfuffle there might cause an upset – Green??????
Davidwh
I’ve just read up on it… thanks… but having trouble working out what the negative impact on existing properties actually is. Is it insurance or property value? (Damned if I know how the reality disappears simply by ordering its removal from notice).
Not sure why none of the pollsters are publishing entire state polling anytime soon, only seat-by-seat or just Ashgrove.
They’ll probably waiting for the big day for an exit.
It doesn’t Gecko, but it’s in line with the ideological stance of the current party in power.
It’s the sort of thing that, so far as risk management and mitigation goes, would get any other public servant fired.
Gecko the complaints related to inability to develop further existing properties, the impact on property values and insurance issues.
Regarding the “reality”. The reality relied on the possible impacts of sea level rises given maximum impact of climate change years into the future.
The publishing of flood maps was just a bit crazy.
I think the Ashgrove reachtel poll reported tonight will be telling (particularly as it was taken last night). Many have been disappointed with Newman’s performance over the last week and Abbott hasn’t helped things either.
I think at least 2% of votes will change from ALP to LNP on election day as CN is the premier. Therefore, ALP will want at least a 53% / 47% TPP in their favour to be confident of taking the seat.
As I’ve said, given the week that the LNP has had, that is entirely plausible. I’m almost expecting ALP to be 54%+ TPP. If it is 51% TPP to ALP, I’ll be putting some money on LNP victory.
Gecko, publishing maps of estimated predicted sea rises is common sense and legally it’s indefensible for Councils to not make potential buyers aware of the information.
The hysteria about this issue on the NSW Central Coast was enormous. Property owners wanted to hide the available data from potential buyers. On the other hand more astute potential buyers who were aware of the information often wanted it published in order to scare off buyers who otherwise could mean prices were higher.
DTT 13
“The other seat that might be interesting is Mogill. The kerfuffle there might cause an upset – Green??????”
Yes I mentioned Moggill on the weekend, it is interesting that LNP are even bothering spending on letter boxing in this electorate. Flegg did nothing in 7 years mainly because it is blue ribbon LNP land but his adoring LNP fans didn’t seem to mind and may be a bit perplexed at the way he was discarded by the LNP.
The true political genius of Can Do and the QLD LNP is on display now they have reversed the long established tried and proven strategy of spending in marginal electorates to only spending in electorates they win. Means Moggill may get some infrastructure if they stay LNP and Can Do wins.
[My seat of Pumicestone is one to watch on Saturday. If the LNP is to lose its majority this seat will likely have to fall to Labor.]
Pumicestone per se may not need to fall but certainly seats *like* Pumicestone on the North and South coasts (showing my age there) will need to fall. Majority government for ALP without at least a good chunk of Kallangur, Pumicestone (North), Albert, Broadwater, Burleigh, Southport (South) is hard to see.
NH
[Gecko, publishing maps of estimated predicted sea rises is common sense and legally it’s indefensible for Councils to not make potential buyers aware of the information.
The hysteria about this issue on the NSW Central Coast was enormous. Property owners wanted to hide the available data from potential buyers. On the other hand more astute potential buyers who were aware of the information often wanted it published in order to scare off buyers who otherwise could mean prices were higher.]
Publishing a map of sea level rises is as relevant as another for a map of possible flood risk map and the past 100 year record on floods.
I am aware councils need to publish such information so as to not be liable if someone did purchase in an area with risk.
David & Gecko, I reckon that the LNP’s Lisa France is horribly conflicted. The member for Pumicestone and Assistant Minister for Finance, Administration and Regulatory Reform has long-standing family real estate business interests in the area, of which she was a former ‘Principal Licencee’. Her defence of the government’s overrule of the council’s decision some weeks ago was weak. Besides, I have a cherished photo of the top end of Bribie Island circa 1930s with its lush mangroves. Today, I get the impression the next high tide will render it nude. The council was acting out of sheer bloody common sense – and a touch of self interest.
[Publishing a map of sea level rises is as relevant as another for a map of possible flood risk map and the past 100 year record on floods.]
If you are an LNP type you’d probably believe Tony Abbott is right and 1000’s of scientists all around the world are wrong. You’d probably look to discredit the maps by saying they are ‘extreme’ or ‘worse case’ working to give the impression they are somehow illegitimate and the council is acting unwisely.
[ You’d probably look to discredit the maps by saying they are ‘extreme’ or ‘worse case’ working to give the impression they are somehow illegitimate and the council is acting unwisely.]
It’s like they don’t want to insure people against risk.
Just because I live next to the sea in an area not known for bushfire doesn’t mean I don’t want to be covered for fire.
According to Reachtel … “Tonight on @7NewsBrisbane: It’s the @ReachTEL show! We have the latest Ashgrove poll and a Federal poll. Both are corkers!”
Corkers … what do you think CN now favourite or ALP pulling ahead? Probably the latter as Kate Jones has now firmed to $1.50 to win Ashgrove…
I’m starting to think the lack of opinion polls might be due to the sheer difficulty of coming up with any final measure.
With preference flows, exhaustion rates by party etc being so unpredictable with changing composition of parties contesting different seats, combined with the “Put LNP last” campaign being run by many interest groups the pollsters must be scratching their heads how to come up with a TPP.
Perhaps they should just be reporting primary votes and let everyone make their own guesses.
I think that if Bruce Flegg had run as an independent in Moggill he would have won the seat. Would have been sweet revenge on Newman and the LNP hierarchy.
Could be either way or a status quo result Newman McGee – it pays for Reachtel to drum up interest in their own polls.
Newman’s recent lack of control may be a pointer that things aren’t going well for him in Ashgrove. Betting has tightened slightly for the LNP with Labor out $0.50 from this morning.
Have to be patient another hour and a bit.
David @ 8
The Sportsbet boys have 16 seats (plus the existing 9) all showing ALP @ $1.15 or less to win.
They have a further 7 @ $1.20 to $1.35 for the ALP incl. Gladstone IND.
That would suggest 23 seats highly likely to fall to the ALP, plus the seat of Maryborough where Foley is $1.35 to win.
So 23 seats for the LNP to lose.
There are only another 5 where the ALP is the bookies favorite to win – Ferny Grove, Keppel, Toowoomba North, Kallangur & Ashgrove ($1.45 to $1.75).
Were the Bookies to be spot on (unlikely) then the LNP would lose 28 seats, leaving them with 48 seats. The ALP 37 and others 4.
The only posters here who thinks that’s a great result for the LNP are TBA and ESJ both of whom don’t do numbers just biased self-opinionated rubbish.
I believe you are in the likely range ausdavo.
davidwh
Yes, an interesting Saturday night coming up.
Tonight up here we don’t get 7 News until 6.30pm (local is first).
Can you post poll result if on 7 at 6 pm down there? Thanks.
I will if I’m not travelling ausdavo but I am sure someone will post the result quickly if I can’t.
I think every Reachtel result Channel 7 have ever had has been a “corker” or some other superlative. Desperate for those eyeballs.
Happy there might finally be some solid data around tonight, I’m sick of speculating about how this or that stunt has played.
I went and voted at the Pre-Poll voting Centre in the Broadwater electorate today and there were volunteers from all the parties there out the front of the gate to the entrance. Verity Barton, the local LNP member, was also there trying to drum up support.
This could be a sign that the LNP think they could be in trouble here, which is something I would not have expected at the start of the campaign.
The corker on the federal polling was that Abbott’s approvals have tanked 🙂
Reachtel in Ashgrove 54-46 to ALP
Oh dear, new LNP leader needed – who will it be ?
Ohhh
Tony Abbott may become available soon.
Brisbane Times: (not scientific of course but where are the LNP trolls ?)
Who is your preferred premier of Queensland?
Campbell Newman 20%
Annastacia Palaszczuk 80%
Total votes: 1458.Poll closes in 4 days
Ha c’mon Queenslanders. A nice leaderless minority LNP government of continued chaos and stupidity to ensure the next Federal election wipes out all the dimwits you send to Canberra.
New thread.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/28/reachtel-54-46-to-labor-in-ashgrove/
try this
Ausdavo,,,post 32
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all of ESJs comments on all topics are “opinionated rubbish” as you wisely say