Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW

A new New South Wales state poll from Galaxy offers nothing to disturb the impression that Mike Baird’s government is headed for a comfortable but substantially reduced majority.

The Daily Telegraph has published the second Galaxy poll of state voting intention in New South Wales since Luke Foley’s leadership takeover, and it’s all but identical to the first in having the Coalition with a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). There are two further questions, finding voters to be largely indifferent to Foley’s drink driving record, and emphatically opposed to the government’s move to allow supermarkets to sell lottery tickets. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 954.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

16 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. From National Newsagent Web site

    “The NSW Opposition leader Luke Foley has come out in support of newsagents, announcing a policy to extend the moratorium to keep lotteries in the hands of small business.

    Mr Foley said a Labor government would legislate to “preserve the current agency protections, until such time as the parties reach agreement on new terms”. The legislation would prevent any compensation payout to Tatts.

    “Newsagents are frequently the beating hearts of local shopping villages – especially in regional communities,” he said.

    However, the NSW Government warns the change could cost $760 million in compensation.”

    Yet again the LNP supporting BIG business at the attempted expense of SMALL business!

  2. There’s still 2 months to go. That’s an eternity in politics. Plenty of time for 5% of people to stop hitting the snooze button.

  3. So a Coalition government changed leader and is in a winning position leading up to the next election. Doesn’t reflect well on the PM’s assertion last week that “ya gotta keep me or we’ll all be rooned”.

    When does the first 2015 parl sesh end? That’s my estimate of Abbott’s political lifespan.

  4. I posted this on the main thread earlier –

    Do those primaries really make sense? What strikes me is that the only significant changes from the actual election to all three subsequent polls is a big drop in the Nationals and Others which has boosted Labor.

    I am sure Labor is tracking better, but surely it’s not all due to a fall in the Nat part of the Coalition? Is this just a “recognition” factor in polling, or do you think the Nats really have halved their vote?

  5. Here are the articles to go with this poll, one each from Sunday & Monday.
    [Latest Galaxy Daily Telegraph poll shows lottery switch a Baird idea
    JANUARY 26, 2015 12:00AM]
    [Premier Mike Baird rolling the dice on lotteries: Digs in despite poll result
    JANUARY 27, 2015 12:00AM]

  6. McCloy’s hope that the High Court would hear and determine his challenge to the NSW electoral laws banning his kind of dough being gifted to political parties before the election has finally been killed off.

    It will be heard in June.

    Big year for corruption fighting in NSW when coupled with Cunneen

  7. The Daily Tele is desperate to claim a ‘win’ on this. They have been trying to make wagering tax cuts and the sale of lotto tickets election issues, but they are just not. People don’t care. If anything, they think it is appalling that Luke Foley’s first announcement was a massive tax cut for NSW Racing.

  8. Largely to be expected: NSW ALP is even more feckless than their Qld brethren, and going through leadership instability to boot. On top of that Baird gives the impression (unlike Newman) of being steady, reliable and not too extreme.

    Yes, he’s all for Big Business….but voters knew any Liberal Government would be, and they voted one in anyway. He’s not dumping surprises on the punters.

  9. There is no sense that it is going to be other than a comfortable Lib victory albeit on a reduced margin.

    NSW Coalition has been far more steady and moderate than the Feds or Queensland, and they have the ability to remind everyone that Eddie Obeid was part of the last Labor government. Their own ICAC problems are small potatoes compared to Eddie’s escapades.

    Agree that the racing tax cut and lotto tickets are complete non-issues for most people. Why should the govt protect a type of business (newsagents) if people don’t want to shop there?

  10. Not surprisingly, many posts do no more than confirm the writers ‘political ‘philosophies’.
    On another point, there’s a delightful irony in NSW Labor which was the Government that made Australia’s most indefensible asset sale ever [that of the NSWTAB Monopoly] simply because there was no active Union involved there, which meant it was ‘safe’ to do so, now bleating about the current proposal.

  11. Apologies – my last post was meant for the Federal thread.

    On the sunject of NSW, Mike Baird (and Barry O’Farrel before him) have been ruuning a generally competent, centrist Liberal Government. The NSW Liberals have not been taken over by the Tea Party wing. Add to that that Labor and John Robertson have been practically invisible and there you have it – a Liberal government seemingly cruising into a second term.

    The Coalition’s ICAC troubles were more than offset by Labor’s. And of course, the biggest selling newspaper in the state and the most popular radio host haven’t been campaigning daily for three years for regime change.

  12. This is exactly the same finding as FairFax’s poll back in November. But FairFax reported without any fanfare, that when voters allocated their preferences themselves the TPP was 51:49 Coalition:Labor. The 54:46 was based on 2011 preference flows which were atypical. It remains to be seen how The Greens recommend preferences this time around, but the poll may be much closer than is being reported.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *