The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.
Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.
A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.
Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.
UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.
ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.
However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.
Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.
mm
😀
There was a little rumour earlier in the week that sometime towards the end of last year a small group sounded JBishop out about taking Abbott’s job. She said no.
Muttley,
No,it is for the unforgivable sin of saying something nice about Julia Gillard. “Come on, mate. Get with the program, beat her up a bit more. It is a national sport, dontcha know. Go on, kick the bitch, ya know y’all want to.”
Fortunately for everyone, Brandis, Abetz and Bernardi can all be dealt a “sorry, the Senate” card, obviating the need to point out they are hopelessly unacceptable.
For a long-shot, Truss looks good odds. Libs can’t agree; fallback PM…
Abbott might do a Rudd if he is deposed but I do not know if he has the cunning for it.
Martin
[Fortunately for everyone, Brandis, Abetz and Bernardi can all be dealt a “sorry, the Senate” card,]
The people who tick their box are strange.
Have to love this. Someone took that Lib MPs’ advice and asked people at Grong Grong pub. The results were not good for Tony.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/whats-wrong-ask-grong-grong–the-locals-will-be-honest-20150129-131ghg.html
Is it really on? Mark Kenny thinks so.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberals-weigh-up-leadership-options-as-prime-minister-tony-abbott-faces-criticism-20150129-131f0o.html
Abbott will be shut out by the media if he loses leadership of the Libs, so won’t hear much from him. The media in this country is virtually another wing of the Liberal Party so won’t make trouble for the new Lib leader, unlike the delight they took in promoting the Julia/Kevin kerfuffle.
[Boerwar
Posted Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 8:56 pm | PERMALINK
There was a little rumour earlier in the week that sometime towards the end of last year a small group sounded JBishop out about taking Abbott’s job. She said no.]
Being a politician, she really meant “not at this time”.
Yes ABC News 24 is carrying Qld election coverage around the country. I’ll be watching.
Rocket
[at Grong Grong pub. ]
A familiar place. Heading in either direction used to get you to the “London” in Ardlethan or the Railway Bar in Narrandrera
Is Morrison a dark horse or for the knackers yard, leadership-wise?
[Muttley,
No,it is for the unforgivable sin of saying something nice about Julia Gillard. “Come on, mate. Get with the program, beat her up a bit more. It is a national sport, dontcha know. Go on, kick the bitch, ya know y’all want to.”]
There are lots of incredibly positive things that can be said about Gillard and indeed should be said more often. There are lots of things that are said that you’d have to have turned your brain off to believe.
For example you shouldn’t assert leaks absolutely caused massive damage when you can even begin to explain what the leaks were, what damage was there and how the leaks had caused the damage unless you are going for dumbest post of the day.
Things are getting serious. Perhaps one of those organisations that handles online petitions should start a “Keep Abbott as PM” petition before it’s too late.
Bw
[Is Morrison a dark horse]
Just another sneering snail.
[Expect late delivery, cost overrun and birthing pain.]
Oh, I do, don’t worry. But human achievement wouldn’t have much to show for itself if any or all of the above had ever stopped anybody.
Just watched some smug Liberal talking head on Sky opining profusely about how important it is that we get rid of the debt. He then went on to say he is all in favour of lowering taxes and giving tax cuts.
What can you do with these ideologically driven morons?
Worst-case scenario for Labor:
1. Abbott is swiftly removed and persuaded to leave Parliament immediately; given some plum job a long way away, probably in his beloved Blighty.
2. The dream team of Bishop-Turnbull takes control.
3. Coalition makes a close study of all the mistakes made by Labor in its switch to Gillard. Learns from said mistakes.
4. Bishop-Turnbull negotiate successfully with Senate cross-benchers. Make some relatively uncontentious Budget savings. Ditch PPL. Ditch “direct action” and move towards a market mechanism. Revise NBN closer to Labor model.
[For example you shouldn’t assert leaks absolutely caused massive damage when you can even begin to explain what the leaks were]
Rudd, Tanner ….
FFS.
CTar1
He leaves the right sort of trail.
poroti
I think the wipper-snipper will do.
CTar1
I look forward to the inevitable leaks about what went on during the reign of Admiral Obergruppenführer Morrison .
[Worst-case scenario for Labor:]
I don’t necessarily buy the argument that a deposed Abbott would hang on the backbench whiteanting his replacement as Rudd did. For a start Abbott hasn’t spent his entire parliamentary career undermining his leader, unlike Rudd.
Then again, most of Abbott’s parliamentary career has been in govt, with his party led by a man he admits to having great affection and respect for. Unlike Rudd who served most of his parliamentary career in opposition, ostensibly under leaders he thought beneath him.
I still wonder what would happen if Abbott is replaced in the first half of this year. Would he wait out until the election to announce his retirement from politics? Would he do a Rudd? Would well-paying post politics job be found for him? Guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
Breaking news
Malaysia calls off search for MH370 says it was an accident.
On the subject of stopping the LNP changing leaders, I note this gleeful quote in the Fairfax papers from yesterday (apologies if already posted):
“It was the best Australia Day ever,” said a senior ALP figure in NSW.
“There is no question Abbott is a major plus for us and a major minus for them. There is a visceral dislike of Abbott in places like Coogee. From coast to coast he is worth about 3 to 4 per cent of votes into our column.”
Article here: http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/abbott-factor-expected-to-cost-coalition-seats-in-nsw-election-20150128-130dtw.html
imacca@763
I actually let most of the gratuitous Rudd bashing pass through to the keeper.
But I really do have to wonder what kind of sick minds keep bring it up.
Yep, Rudd and Gillard were bitter rivals and screwed each other over.
Time to move on, both are gone.
pedant@767
I wonder where he plagiarised it from?
Apparently Pyne was on PvO’s program tonight. When things are going badly for the govt, they always seem to send him out to baffle the media with his ability to talk in circles.
[WWP
For example you shouldn’t assert leaks absolutely caused massive damage when you can even begin to explain what the leaks were]
Apologies… I really did try to resist this…and will try my best to make this my last.
The first “Oakes leak” was Rudd’s account of the “knifing”.
The 2nd was something nasty Gillard was supposed to have said in private about maternity and pensioner payments…
Grattan wondered who the leaker could be and if it was true, but concluded that neither mattered because the damage was done.
[ alias
Posted Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
Worst-case scenario for Labor:
…..
4. Bishop-Turnbull negotiate successfully with Senate cross-benchers. Make some relatively uncontentious Budget savings. Ditch PPL. Ditch “direct action” and move towards a market mechanism. Revise NBN closer to Labor model.
]
Complete the Implementation of Labor’s changes is the traditional Liberal model and it has worked well for them; and I am sure it would work well again.
confessions
[ For a start Abbott hasn’t spent his entire parliamentary career undermining his leader, unlike Rudd]
Earlier today there was a link/post that detailed how Abbott had leaked against Lib leaders from as far back as Hewson.
All fair points and questions Confessions but my over-arching concern is that much and all as it’s been swell fun watching Abbott implode these past four days, the outlook for Labor from here on might very well be markedly less wonderful.
alias @819,
The Liberals will never, ever and this especially includes Turnbull being PM move to a fibre based NBN. The NBN offended the core of their beinh. And Turnbull has terminated the fibre rollout and is preparing for NBNcos breakup and disposal.
This isn’t going to change without widespread public backlash and this is not happening because their is a media blackout on the issue.
pedant,
It was me and not bemused who attributed the “shiver” to Keating… apologies again…
So down in the the Abbott bunker tonight, what’s the general vibe.
Tone will be searching back into to his Bob Santamaria roots for inspiration. He’ll be pondering Bob’s advice about fortune or virtue. He’ll ruminate on Churchill’s notion of defiance.
Rule out nothing with Abbott cornered. Guarantee it will be spectacular.
being^
Question
It is a complete waste of time. Whitlam’s funeral said all that needs to be said.
rossmcg
[Malaysia calls off search for MH370 says it was an accident.]
What’s Tones going to do with the $90m he has in the budget?
I hope that Abbott has dirt and is threatening to use it. You he would if he could.
labor seems to realise it needs to go easy on abbott for a bit – there’s a very big risk he’ll be replaced, and then shorten might be found wanting. they’re much better to give abbott rope and plan a campaign that reminds everyone of abbott’s lies and determination to kill medicare, education/gonski, and egalitarian australia.
It sounds as though abbott’s preparing a howard style election year family bribes package. labor needs to be on the front foot calling for means testing, responsible spending, fair cuts, and closing of tax loopholes for the wealthy. they also need to call a bribe a bribe and point to any smoke and mirrors/swings and roundabouts short term payments in exchange for long term pain. abbott will no doubt tie the package to severe cuts and then claim the opposition and cross benches are denying battlers the bribe. maybe they’ll do a big tassie bribe for Lambie, 4WD access to all areas of national parks and cheap fuel for registered members of car clubs for Muir, and mining leases galore to palmer, etc. – all tied to fee deregulation, HECS hikes, medicare cuts (the trick is to start with means tested co-payments, but have a law that allows them to extend to all and increase payments without going back to parliament). I imagine howard and his old team will be given a role in cooking up strategy and give abbott and hockey their scripts.
poroti:
I find it implausible that Abbott was whiteanting Howard.
[Apparently Pyne was on PvO’s program tonight. When things are going badly for the govt, they always seem to send him out to baffle the media with his ability to talk in circles.]
I thought that was Barnaby’s job.
whty is poll 60/ 40 — why only smaill swing?
* why isnt poll 60/40 … all this for 2 or 3 points?
alias:
For all his jonesing for a leadership change on twitter, and having D&Ms with Liberal MPs about the ‘mood’, even PvO admitted in his weekend column that replacing Abbott was unlikely.
Personally I’d prefer for him to remain there for the time being. Esp if he’s going to keep making errors of judgement and all round displays of incompetence.
confessions
[I find it implausible that Abbott was whiteanting Howard]
I don’t think Howie was on the list.
[Malaysia has declared Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 an “accident”, meaning all 239 on board the ill-fated aircraft are presumed dead, but insisted the search for the plane last seen on March 8 last year “remains a priority”.
Nearly 11 months and up to S$130 million were spent on an unsuccessful search for the plane which mysteriously disappeared without a trace enroute from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
Malaysia’s civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman said that after 327 days “and based on all available data”, “survivability is highly unlikely” for those on the plane that is believed to have crashed in the southern Indian Ocean off the west coast of Australia.
The area is far from any landing site and has “adverse sea conditions with known depths of more than 6,000 metres,” he said.]
– See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/malaysia-officially-declares-disappearance-mh370-aircraft-accident-2#sthash.ESOE6Juj.dpuf
cud 834 “The NBN offended the core of their beinh” but boy do they whinge if the connectivity to their electorate offices is not first class (yes I do know). Lost opportunity of a life time and I just hope some of this mob realise that before they cark it
Fess
I don’t see Abbott as whiteanting Howard. I though he worshipped Howard. But then again I thought all of them except Hammock Costello did.