Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The latest result from Essential Research finds the Coalition back to what at the time was a surprisingly poor result a fortnight ago.

The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.

Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.

A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.

Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.

UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.

ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.

However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.

Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. TPOF@645

    guytaur @ 644

    Fair enough. She got a honeymoon in the polls after taking over from Rudd, but that was slaughtered by the two carefully placed and timed leaks to Laurie Oakes.

    Same tired old excuses.

    She did a damn good job of demolishing her own credibility with stupid policies such as the ‘citizens assembly’ and ‘cash for clunkers’.

  2. Senator Cormann has given Abbott his support.
    He said Mr Abbott had “learned his lesson” by taking personal responsibility for knighting Prince Philip and agreeing to consult more widely in the future.
    “He is the best person to lead the Liberal Party, to lead our country,”
    “He’s a very strong leader, leading the charge when it comes to implementing our plan to build a stronger and more prosperous economy and to ensure that Australia is safe and secure.”

    The problem for the Libs is that it may be well be true that Abbott is the best that they have got, not because he is good but because the others are worse. Heaven help us!
    Oh, and Cormann went off script because he forgot to mention that they have scrapped the carbon tax, have stopped the boats and they are fixing the debt and deficit crisis caused by Labor.

  3. [Barnaby talking bs to Leigh.]

    Bananas. I’ve grown fond of poor old Bananas. I don’t know why. I know it’s wrong – but I have.

  4. William Bowe…

    I’ve tried to register with Crikey AGAIN. This time I used a different email address, as the other one (the one that I tried unsuccessfully to register with umpteen times before) was ruled out of order.

    OK, so I get the email. But the links are dead. So I can’t get a password.

    I’ve tried this, over the years, with Internet Explorer, Firefox and Chrome. Four different PCs, different IP addresses etc. all to no avail.

    I’ve used different emails, different log-ons and all the rest.

    IT WON’T LET ME IN. THERE’s ALWAYS SOME TECHNICAL OBSTACLE.

    It’s a f*ucked system mate.

  5. Jake

    [I’ve grown fond of poor old Bananas. I don’t know why. I know it’s wrong – but I have.]
    I know why. When Barnaby does a ramble he channels an old character of John Clarke, Fred Dagg. Total 😆 nonsense is spoken but to keep such a flow up without any seeming effort is a real talent. Fred Dagg talks about education.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJm5XU83ieA

  6. bemused @ 752

    [ Same tired old excuses. ]

    LoL! I was wondering how long it would take bemused to come in after a favorable mention of Gillard and be a wan$er again.

    Certain like Death and Taxes is our bemused.

  7. [
    bemused at 752
    yeh, yeh whatever…..]

    I’m convinced that mumble is correct and Gillard’s biggest mistake and biggest problem was her refusal to actually go to the election as PM. All her antics did was underline that she got it illegitimately – even she didn’t act like she was the real PM.

  8. [763
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 7:53 pm | PERMALINK
    bemused @ 752
    Same tired old excuses.
    LoL! I was wondering how long it would take bemused to come in after a favorable mention of Gillard and be a wan$er again.
    Certain like Death and Taxes is our bemused.]

    If you clowns stopped posting the provocative biased history rewrites I’m pretty sure bemused wouldn’t raise the issue.

  9. bemused @ 750: I hate to have to tell all of you here who are going into transports of delight over Paul Keating’s wit because of the “shiver looking for a spine” comment that it was actually plagiarised from a remark made by Robert “Piggy” Muldoon about the NZ Labour PM Bill Rowling during an election campaign in the 1970s.

  10. Crikey is not oblivious to the deficiencies of its system, which result from it being a decade-old WordPress platform with an ever-expanding accumulation of patches and cracks papered over in an ad hoc fashion. Consequently, a project is under way to rebuild the whole thing from the ground up.

  11. Bemused

    JG made mistskes and has acknowledged them. However, the leaks did tremendous damage to her. If you do not accept that, then you are no different from people that you accuse are selective in presenting their arguments.

  12. Rossco: “Senator Cormann has given Abbott his support.”

    Let’s get this right. Cormann may be making public statements of support but what’s happening behind the scenes – who knows? It happens in sport the same way it happens in politics. The coach or PM or whomever always has “full support” right up until the moment the knife goes in.

    This period before the party room meeting is surely the most dangerous for Abbott. The talk among all Coalition MPs must surely be fast and furious. Options will be canvassed, contingincies contemplated. But rest assured, until something concrete changes, “full support” will be the order of the day from Cabinet ministers.

    My own feeling is that Abbott will tough it out. I suspect some hardhead will impose on Abbott some kind of “minder” in addition to Peta Credlin. Someone with significant political experience who will become his political bodyguard to save him from himself and ensure he consults as he has promised (again).

    Finally, remember that Abbott has one very fortunate advantage over Kevin Rudd: he has been given very public and very explicit notice that he has to fix his act or he is gone.

  13. [ If you clowns stopped posting the provocative biased history rewrites I’m pretty sure bemused wouldn’t raise the issue. ]

    Nah…he’s just a dick and cant help himself.

  14. [I do observe however that you appear to be commenting.]

    Commenting has nothing to do with “Signing Up”.

    You give them an email address. They reject it. Then you give them another one. They accept it and send an email to that address. They invite you to click on a link. But it’s not a link. It’s dead. Just text.

    End of story.

  15. [
    William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

    Crikey is not oblivious to the deficiencies of its system, which result from it being a decade-old WordPress platform with an ever-expanding accumulation of patches and cracks papered over in an ad hoc fashion. Consequently, a project is under way to rebuild the whole thing from the ground up.]

    Ummm ground-up.

    http://books.cat-v.org/computer-science/mythical-man-month/tmmm.pdf

    Expect late delivery, cost overrun and birthing pain.

  16. Trending most popular site for Liberal Party Room digital graffiti artists and artistes.

    %3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.sword-buyers-guide.com%252Fsharpen-swords.html%3B454%3B311

  17. [ Finally, remember that Abbott has one very fortunate advantage over Kevin Rudd: he has been given very public and very explicit notice that he has to fix his act or he is gone. ]

    Also, regardless of personal opinion about Rudd and whether or not he actually was a psychopathic ar$shole, there was a substantial portion of the population that liked him even if the ALP MP’s all hated him.

    With Abbott, there may be some MP’s who want him to stay, but most actual punters seem to just want the embarrassment to please please please stop this cant go on.

  18. BW,

    I suspect the modern Liberal Party might eschew the violent metaphors of the knife and use Twitter to sack Abbott.

    “You are so dropped” is apparently the insult du jour.

  19. [JG made mistskes and has acknowledged them. However, the leaks did tremendous damage to her. If you do not accept that, then you are no different from people that you accuse are selective in presenting their arguments.]

    I’m curious to know specifically what leaks you refer to and exactly what damage you refer to and how you established with such confidence a causal relationship between the leaks and the damage?

    Serious question.

  20. [Nah…he’s just a dick and cant help himself.]

    I’d drawn a similar conclusion but not with respect to him. In my observation he always seems to be responding.

  21. WWP 766

    “If you clowns stopped posting the provocative biased history rewrites I’m pretty sure bemused wouldn’t raise the issue.”

    So you’re saying that it’s our fault bemused is a dick?

  22. Stirring, stirring the pot…

    [Nervous Liberal MPs have begun discussing alternative leadership options, and the pros and cons of switching to either Foreign Minister Julie Bishop or former leader Malcolm Turnbull are now being “actively” considered.

    Fairfax Media has been told worried backbench MPs have been phoning each other in a state of agitation over the government’s continuing woes.]

    Mark Kenny tonight

  23. I was just surveyed by Ipsos on behalf of Fairfax.

    It was a set of questions about voting intention, preferred prime minister, and knighthoods.

    I was genuinely torn on the question “Do you agree that PM Tony Abbott is doing a good job?” As a member of the ALP I think he is doing an outstanding job of ensuring that the LNP will lose the next election. Anyway, I paused a moment before conceding that “strongly disagree” was the correct answer.

    I tripped up on the question “Do you agree that the cost of Medicare needs to be reduced?” Without thinking about what it meant – I immediately interpreted it to mean out-of-pocket cost to an individual – I said “strongly agree”. But then I realised that it meant cost to the government. Oh well.

  24. The “phones running hot” rumour continues. Watching Speers he reckoned that now everything Abbott does will be viewed through the prism of polls. Same hell hole Labor fell into .

    [Liberals weigh up move to Bishop or Turnbull

    Mark Kenny 7:16PM
    Dangerous development for Tony Abbott as agitated MPs put in calls to discuss leadership options.]
    http://smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberals-weigh-up-leadership-options-as-prime-minister-tony-abbott-faces-criticism-20150129-131f0o.html

  25. Kinkajou

    [The Tax Act is a nightmare to administrate.

    Or to adminster as we say in English. I felt obligated to mention it]

    Actually, I think we say administer in English. I also felt obligated to mention it 🙂

  26. [“Serious Question”
    Where you asleep or just dumb as?]

    Nah I just didn’t drink the koolaid – I had not expected an impressive answer but that response is even worse than I thought. Go back to the koolaid and drawing pictures with your crayons.

  27. Apologies if this has already been asked and answered, but does anyone know if interstate viewers will be able to watch the ABC commentary on the Queensland election on Saturday night? Will it be running on ABC 24? (would be a good use of the channel)

  28. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    BW,

    I suspect the modern Liberal Party might eschew the violent metaphors of the knife and use Twitter to sack Abbott.

    “You are so dropped” is apparently the insult du jour.]

    How fuddyduddyment of me but I yam what I yam.

  29. [“Date when Abbott will have been PM longer than:
    Rudd (1st term) – 10/4/2016
    Rudd (both terms) – 2/7/2016
    Gillard – 22/9/2016”

    On this basis, I confidently predict the 2016 election date to be Saturday 24 September.]

    Ha, good point. He could presumably sneak the 17 September and not hand over for 6 days.

    Although by that time (especially if Abbott is somehow still in the chair) they will be desperate to squeeze every last second out of the leather so it would be early December.

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