The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.
Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.
A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.
Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.
UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.
ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.
However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.
Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.
This paragraph from Bernard Keane’s article is a succinct comparision of the achievements of Rudd, Gillard and Abbott:
[” How many more times will Abbott make a disastrous “captain’s pick” and promise to consult more? For all their faults, Kevin Rudd led Australia safely through the financial crisis, and Julia Gillard made a legislative success out of minority government and managed the unprecedented feat of landing a mining investment boom without an inflationary explosion. And they did so in the face of remorseless, bitter hatred from Murdoch and his spear carriers. Abbott has had virtually a free hand to do what he likes with the support of the dominant media company in the country, and he has constantly stumbled.”]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/01/29/ruperts-fix-wont-help-his-ailing-aussie-subsidiary/
victoria
The GST pass thing was yesterday. This morning Ms P rebuffed easily and light heartedly with three interviews and missing her morning coffee. After saying the figure is 10%
[apropos calls for Peta Credlin to resign.]
The focus on Credlin is silly.
We employ Tones and his aide.
His to discard.
Anyhoo. Peter Beattie and Michael Kroger say that LNP will win in Qld, and The GST
There’s a definite Bracks V Kennett feel about Qld for mine… Fingers crossed.
[Mick Keelty.]
Yes.
Oops should have added fhat the GST gaffe by Anna is going to damage Labor in a big way
victoria
Well they are wrong to say so. Its a coin toss. Though being on Sky I understand them saying it
Don’t the IPA says there is no such thing as a free lunch ?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/us-antivaccination-campaigner-dr-sherri-tenpenny-cancels-tour-of-australia-20150128-130qa4.html
I think she should instead tour some third world countries where the rates of these diseases are sometimes quite high. Then she could experience first hand the delights of diphtheria, tetanus, rubella, measles, mumps, polio etc
Is Beattie a Murdoch hack now?
guytaur
According to Peter beattie it is a big gaffe. In any case, he believes Labor wont get enough seats to win the election. He also thinks that Newman may hang onto Ashgrove
victoria
Well Beattie is contradicting what the polls say. Politicians have been known to make wrong calls on elections before.
victoria@707
Nah… it was a rapid fire quiz to answer as many questions as you can in a minute. She got some good ones right and earned the contestant 300 bucks. No drama.
[According to Peter beattie it is a big gaffe. In any case, he believes Labor wont get enough seats to win the election. He also thinks that Newman may hang onto Ashgrove]
May also be strategic – stay the underdog discourage last minute vote wanders.
victoria
[She was asked rate of GST and she said “pass”.]
In the report I saw, Newman didn’t answer either. But the write-up was all “Anastacia gorn”.
[According to Peter beattie it is a big gaffe.]
The ultimate media tart.
Should the Queensland ruminations not be in the relevant topic, folks?
Beattie strikes me as a bit like Richardson. Media tart is a good description.
lizzie@716
Apparently the Brisbane Times has pulled the story.
@SandiHLogan: Says @JaneCaro: “In advertising..even the very best communications can only sell a bad product once.” http://t.co/qGeinWkQh9
[Should the Queensland ruminations not be in the relevant topic, folks?]
Feel free to read there.
Other than that the rest of us are commenting on a state election that has national significance,
@smh: Colleen McCullough, the internationally famous Australian author, has died. http://t.co/fsreik3wvi http://t.co/1dMHEMkGRm
The idea that the leader of the opposition in Queensland declining to state the rate of GST in a 1 minute radio quiz has “national significance” is quite possibly the silliest thing that has ever been written on this site.
[Oops should have added fhat the GST gaffe by Anna is going to damage Labor in a big way]
I wouldn’t think so. She obviously knows that GST is 10%… everyone above the mental age of 8 does. Just a stupid gaffe moment, not worth worrying about.
I agree the media will make a big thing of it (probably already have) – they love inventing gaffes – but it’s too late now to have a big effect on the election, even if it meant something.
And the GST-dodge article is very much still on the Brisbane Times webpage, Gecko. Not sure where the contrary story came from.
I’m sure it’ll cost Shorten at least 2 points in the next opinion poll, right CTar1?
BB
Some more MH370 stuff for you. Not much, mind.
http://media.crikey.com.au/dm/newsletter/dailymail_b3007b958c277b60e776195769da6827.html#article_33480
If the queensland election result does really hang on the opposition leaders “gaffe” over the GST the God help us all.
[Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has launched an extraordinary defence of Tony Abbott’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, declaring the Prime Minister should be held accountable for his own mistakes.]
In this piece, Massola has gone all breathless and excited. For a moment I thought it must be Latika.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-mistakes-are-tony-abbotts-mistakes-bill-shorten-defends-peta-credlin-20150129-130z31.html
teh
[t least 2 points in the next opinion poll, right CTar1?]
They’ll turn up as Greens and come right back.
Bw
[Some more MH370 stuff for you. Not much, mind.]
$90m …
She should have answered that the rate as specified in section 4 of each of the imposition acts is 10% and that under section 9-70 of the A New Tax System (Goods and Services Tax) Act the amount of GST is 10% of the value of the taxable supply where value is defined in section 9-75 of the same act to be 10/11ths of the price of the supply, where the price is the sum of money paid in consideration and the GST inclusive market value of any non-Monetrary consideration.
Perhaps pass was a better option.
WWP
The Tax Act is a nightmare to administrate.
[
WWP
The Tax Act is a nightmare to administrate.]
Which is a throughly good thing.
The Tax Act is a nightmare to administrate.
Or to adminster as we say in English. I felt obligated to mention it
Keane’s article is unusually good, but the real stunner in today’s Crikey newsletter is Guy Rundle – normally unreadable, but he somehow has gotten into Abbott’s head.
Worth the price of subscription. A small taste..
[Tony’s act was thus, by the standard of the era he is living in, quite proper. It also dovetailed nicely with another key trait of his, as I noted earlier, that of sycophancy. As we discovered last year, one of Abbott’s vices is to suck up to whoever he’s talking to. He’ll tell Aborigines they’re the oldest continuous culture, then tell someone else that the land was unsettled. He’ll tell miners they’re the true source of Australia’s wealth and piss off the farmers, then tell the farmers they have the only true relation to the land, which will piss off the Aborigines, then — and round it goes. You can pick Abbott’s future gaffes simply by checking his appointments diary. Honours are sycophancy raised to the status of a system. How could he really resist? This is not a blunder in the second year of the honours system. This was what he had always wanted to do with it. This latest feint, with its mixture of British-Australianism, a vague whiff of imperial race loyalty, the mid-century antiquarianism of Sir Arthur Bryant, and the loyalty-become-servility of a British Catholic, is one out of the box. No wonder the poor old press gallery is at a loss. Their idea of culture is a glass of riesling and a Taggart marathon. We have a prime minister who has escaped from the wildest reaches of Baron Corvo.]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/01/29/rundle-prince-philip-knighthood-may-be-abbotts-finest-service-to-the-liberal-party/
DRminMelb @658:
There are times when Boerwar’s willing to actually speak sense. For instance, he actually did partially change my opinion on the causes of the problems in Greece – the Greek taxpayers’ ongoing refusal to pay their taxes really has been a serious problem for Athens’ efforts to balance the budget (My initial thought was that it was much more to do with the structural imbalances caused by Germany’s entry at a low peg to the Deutschemark, leading to a decade of hot money inflow to the periphery and systemic trade imbalances).
It’s just that every time someone disagrees with him, he resorts to false associations, personal bashing, strawmanning and outright lying about what they’ve said.
I’m sick of it.
Rocket Rocket @ 710
Perhaps she could demonstrate that vaccinations are ineffective by spending time with people suffering from those diseases.
some interesting odds being offered on who will be PM at the next election. Joe Hockey seems to have blown way out to $34 – Peter Dutton value at $101
Tony Abbott 1.50
Julie Bishop 3.00
Malcolm Turnbull 5.50
Scott Morrison 12.00
Joe Hockey 34.00
Christopher Pyne 51.00
Greg Hunt 67.00
George Brandis 67.00
Barnaby Joyce 81.00
Andrew Robb 101.00
Peter Dutton 101.00
Warren Truss 251.00
https://www.sportingbet.com.au/elections/1784434/d/federal-leadership
[I’m sick of it.]
Poor baby.
sprocket
Interesting to see Newman is out to $3-00 in Ashgrove, and Kate Jones in to $1-35. One way traffic.
[ Joe Hockey seems to have blown way out to $34 ]
I’d like to see betting on if Joe will even be a front bencher in 3 months time.
Where is Malcolm Turnbull?
[It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for Prime Minister Tony Abbott the last few days, what with the whole knighting a Prince thing, and that situation has been made worse by the seemingly open revolt of various Liberal Party MPs and government backbenchers. One voice has been conspicuously absent, though — Malcolm Turnbull, who is making geeks across the country jealous with a visit to the Tesla factory in Fremont, California.
As well as a factory tour, our Communications Minister also took a test drive of a Tesla Model S all-electric luxury sedan. If Malcolm’s anything like us, he’s a fan of the Model S’s ridiculous, ceaseless acceleration. He’s a fan of that big, beautiful 17-inch central touchscreen in the dashboard. He’s a fan of the 500-odd kilometres of range on a single charge with no carbon emissions. Maybe he’ll buy one when he gets back to Oz — his electorate of Wentworth is a stone’s throw from the Supercharger stations at the Star.]
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2015/01/wheres-malcolm-turnbull-visiting-tesla-in-california/
I’d probably put money on one of the young guns like Frydenberg before I even considered Brandis or Dutton.
The words Dutton and value should never be linked.
lizzie
Agree!
[Some more MH370 stuff for you. Not much, mind.]
Seen too many “inside tips” from internet watchers and “world experts” on this one to get too excited, BW.
lizzie
[The words Dutton and value should never be linked.]
Not if “less” is bolted onto the end of value.
Following on from Williams earlier post
“Vote Conservative”
http://youtu.be/p3FCpnIVfdI
Rates Analyst@638
Yes, I thought about it later and concluded you were right.
I was sure it wasn’t Howard.