Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The latest result from Essential Research finds the Coalition back to what at the time was a surprisingly poor result a fortnight ago.

The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.

Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.

A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.

Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.

UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.

ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.

However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.

Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 19
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  1. [ It will be Malcolm Turnbull. ]

    If they do that then it all hinges on what they adopt for a 2015 budget.

    But as far as “its on” surely even the Libs wouldn’t do it before the QLD election. Unless QLd looks like being such a train wreck that they need a nuclear grade distraction. 🙂

  4. guytaur@648

    “@MarkDiStef: “The phones are running hot. They will not turn to the deputy leader, Julie Bishop. It will be Malcolm Turnbull.” – Paul Sheehan

    It’s on”

    Hahaha… and f@ck Qld? Surely not

  5. Don’t do that guytaur… you almost had me interested enough to fall off my chair… until I realised the Buzzfeed guy was quoting the Sheehan article we were complaining about earlier.

  8. Matt #554, @ Boerwar

    In short, you’re lying about just about everything I’ve said, and what many other Greens (here and elsewhere) have said as well. When you’re prepared to stop doing so, I’ll acknowledge you again – until then, I’m just going to ignore your posts, if only to spare myself the irritation of perusing your latest rounds of bullshit, fallacies and outright slanders.

    You’ve tolerated BW’s claptrap and twisted logic far longer than most here. I salute you.

    Now you just need to make liberal use of the mouse-wheel any time you encounter a new post from Borewar – as many on PB do. It’s the best option. The more facts and logic you offer, the more twisted his retorts become.

    DR

  9. [Gillard because she was undermined prior to the election by Rudd and Abbott because no new government in Australian history took power with less political credit in the bag, having earned power totally by not being the other mob.]

    Gillard undermined herself – these leaks certainly didn’t help but they were not the primary problem.

  11. Would definitely have a chuckle at the Foreign Minister if they did bypass her for Malcolm redux. Never the bride…

    …and after she’d got Rupert to walk her down the aisle and everything.

  13. [Maybe the Magic Water is telling Sheehan it’s Malcolm. He should probably ease up the consumption.]

    Aqua mirabilis, or aqua vitae ?

  16. [Maybe the Magic Water is telling Sheehan it’s Malcolm.]

    Talc would need a serious bit of backing off over NBN and a real display that he’s Liberal – it’s something I doubt.

  22. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    😆 headline about our high tech flying gold plated white elephants

    New RAAF jets to be able to shoot back]

    Yeah. By 2020… it’s a promise.

  23. Just heard Phil Coorey with Richard Glover on ABC Sydney basically saying it is all over for Abbott.

    Apparently Lib members are talking in groups to each other and asking what do they do now.

  24. [Maybe the Magic Water is telling Sheehan it’s Malcolm]

    They were both into “magic water’ .
    [Turnbull pumps $10m into rainmaking gamble

    The money bankrolls research into a mysterious ionisation technology promoted by the Australian Rain Corporation……..

    Malcolm Turnbull’s fundraising group the Wentworth Forum, includes a long list of generous donors
    and includes ……..Matt Handbury, chairman and part-owner of the so-called Australian Rain Corporation, beneficiary of the Minister’s funding………..Mr Handbury is the wealthy nephew of Rupert Murdoch ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-20/turnbull-pumps-10m-into-rainmaking-gamble/731004

  29. poroti

    [AIRCRAFT maker Lockheed Martin says there is no technical problem with aircraft’s 25mm gun, although its computer software isn’t yet complete and it hasn’t been fully tested on the aircraft.]

    It was one thing we thought about on ‘the day’ was that the Harriers were slow but had good cannons.

  32. ratsak

    Ah, Sheehans Magic water. A high point in his career. that he still has a job is evidence of how far standards have slipped.
    Years ago i used to read his stuff and try and slip magic and water into a comment. The Fairfax mods twigged eventually so I gave up.

  33. Costs extra, ratsak. More importantly, is there a DVD player in the backseat for those long boring flights between Canberra and …. Oh wait….

  34. Pretty small sample on that Qld poll, and it was taken over three weeks.

    [
    Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 15m 15 minutes ago
    Essential Qld poll 50 50 2pp, “conducted online over 3 weeks from the 9th to 26th January”. 566 sample.
    ]

  36. [The interesting thing is the extent to which the MSM has bought (and sold to Australians) the story that Abbott and Bishop have a wonderful relationship with Indonesia – despite all the many signals to the contrary.]

    I think the imminent executions, being bloody awful and disgusting, will bring that misunderstanding to its conclusion.

    The Bali-9 were dobbed by Keelty, under Howard, for what reason I cannot fathom. I hope Bill Keelty sleeps well on the night they are executed.

  38. 50-50. Minority government, I will have to stay home & watch the soccer and QLD on Sat.

    markjs – I must have just refreshed/missed your correction.

  40. W

    From which the following para is just lovely:

    [Most ridiculous of all is the argument, ventured by News Corp attack shih tzu Miranda Devine, that Credlin needs to be dispatched as a kind of ritual sacrifice to demonstrate Abbott’s good faith to his colleagues, bringing to mind nothing so much as the Beyond The Fringe sketch in which a WW I officer is told to make a “futile gesture” to “raise the whole tone of the war.”]

  41. mtbw

    Whilst the tories have been tearing their hair this week after Abbott’s latest brainfart with the knighthood. Everyone else has just had a good laugh at him. When you become the focus of ridicule, you are politically dead meat. Yep Abbott is gone. Question is when

  47. [ Qld is going down to the wire. ]

    I’d love to believe it, but i’d still pick Newman to get the boot and the LNP to win by a small margin.

    There will be much smiling and imbibing if the ALP do pull it off though. 🙂

    doGs, but the cartoonists will have a field day if that happens.

  48. Gecko

    Yeah that polling is probably what internal polling for the LNP has been saying. Mr Newman has been ramping up his hung parliament rhetoric

  49. [ Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 25m 25 minutes ago
    IPA offering Yoof lunch with Bolt and Roskam if they join up. ]

    Yuck. What is it with the IPA? We feed you lunch and then make sure you give it straight back??

  50. Peter Beattie on Sky reckons that Ashgrove will be tight and a result may not be known for a few days.

    Also apparently OL of QLD made a big clanger that is going to cost her. She was on FM radio this morning and they did a quiz. She was asked rate of GST and she said “pass”. Oh dear…..

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