The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. The result combines two polling periods from the past two weekends extending from Friday to Monday, and so does not meaningfully account for the three-days-and-counting that the Prime Minister has spent as a national laughing stock.
Other questions ask respondents to rate the government’s handling of various issue areas, and since this question was last asked at the peak of a recovery period for the government in September, the movements are adverse. There has been a 10% correction in the government’s biggest strength of that time, relations with foreign countries, the net rating down from plus 15% to plus 5%, but managing the economy is also down solidly from minus 6% to minus 14%. Other movement is in the order of zero to 5%.
A separate question also finds the government copping a surprisingly mediocre rating on handling of asylum seekers, with good down three since July to 38% and poor up one to 36%. However, a further question finds 26% rating it too tough, 23% too soft and 35% opting for “taking the right approach”, which seems to be the best result that can be hoped for. Forty-four per cent expressed support for sending asylum seekers to Cambodia with 32% opposed.
Not sure if we’re going to get the Morgan face-to-face poll we would ordinarily have seen on Monday, but I can reveal that Ipsos will be in the field this weekend for the Fairfax papers.
UPDATE (Morgan): Morgan has published a poll that’s not quite cut from its normal cloth. The method is the usual face-to-face plus SMS, the field work period is normally Saturday and Sunday, and the results published the combined work of two weeks’ polling. But this time the field work period was Friday to Tuesday, and not inclusive of any polling from the weekend of January 17-18. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period comes after the Prince Philip disaster. The portents for the government are not good: compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gains a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively. After a hitherto soft set of polling results so far this year, the Greens shoot up from 9.5% to 12%. Labor now holds formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5. The sample of 2057, while still large, is about two-thirds the usual.
ReachTEL, which is not normally prone to hyperbole, is talking up results federally and from Ashgrove which the Seven Network will reveal shortly.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The ReachTEL poll, conducted last night to take advantage of the Prince Philip imbroglio, is bad-but-not-apocalyptic for the Coalition in terms of voting intention, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens.
However, the headline grabbers relate to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings. The poll finds him a distant third for preferred Liberal leader, on 18% to Malcolm Turnbull’s 44% and Julie Bishop’s 30%. The five-point scale personal ratings find Tony Abbott moving 9.5% in the wrong direction on both indicators, with very good plus good at 21.6% and bad plus very bad at 61.6%.
Bill Shorten is respectively up from 21.3% and 27.1% and up from 37.7% to 38.3%, and while that’s a net improvement, it’s interesting to note he does less well on the five-point scale than approve-uncommitted-disapproval. The poll also found 71% of respondents were opposed to the Prince Philip knighthood, with 12% in support.
confessions
Mind you given his history I would not be surprised if he did when his “dad” was on the nose.
Poroti,
[Jake
I’ve grown fond of poor old Bananas. I don’t know why. I know it’s wrong – but I have.
I know why. When Barnaby does a ramble he channels an old character of John Clarke, Fred Dagg. Total nonsense is spoken but to keep such a flow up without any seeming effort is a real talent. Fred Dagg talks about education.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJm5XU83ieA ]
I knew someone here would understand. You are that person. Kudos.
The rush to be first.
The breaking news on MH370 came from The Guardian.
They have now amended the story and added this rider
• This article was amended on 29 January 2015. The headline was amended to make clear that the search for survivors is off but that the search for the plane itself continues.
Ah well, they were not wrong for long …
So that’s OK
[Earlier today there was a link/post that detailed how Abbott had leaked against Lib leaders from as far back as Hewson.]
It was a good read from Andrew Elder with lot’s of good points. Political manoeuvring is not Abbott’s weakness.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
poroti:
If Howard wasn’t on the list then who is left? The majority of Abbott’s parliamentary service has occurred under Howard’s leadership.
[SF @841
labor seems to realise it needs to go easy on abbott for a bit – there’s a very big risk he’ll be replaced, and then shorten might be found wanting.]
That’s a bit defeatist. Get rid of Abbott and then yell “next” is my view. I’m not sure you can “status quo” into government. 🙂
Jake
Youse just liked it because at the 3:10 mark Clarke says “She’ll be Jake” 🙂
[I don’t necessarily buy the argument that a deposed Abbott would hang on the backbench whiteanting his replacement as Rudd did. For a start Abbott hasn’t spent his entire parliamentary career undermining his leader, unlike Rudd.]
To be fair, Rudd spent a lot of his early time undermining Brereton as Foreign Affairs shadow rather than Beazley.
I know I should be happy about all this leadership speculation and instability within the Coalition, and I guess I am. But I just get that pang of anger from days gone by when I read it in a Mark Kenny article, day after day, several times a day.
He’s sure strikes me as a troublesome prick of a man, Mark Kenny.
confessions
I should have said Lib leaders rather than PMs.
Poroti,
Please do not expose the fact that I am John Clarke.
I value my anonymity.
Martin B:
No, Rudd certainly didn’t discriminate when it came to undermining his colleagues.
But I don’t think on the face of their histories that analogies can be drawn with Abbott. Abbott strikes me as too lazy to follow through with the relentlessness required to mount the same kind of campaign Rudd waged.
confessions
[Abbott strikes me as too lazy to follow through with the relentlessness required ]
A +1 for that
[“bemused @ 750: I hate to have to tell all of you here who are going into transports of delight over Paul Keating’s wit because of the “shiver looking for a spine” comment that it was actually plagiarised from a remark made by Robert “Piggy” Muldoon about the NZ Labour PM Bill Rowling during an election campaign in the 1970s.”
I wonder where he plagiarised it from?]
Harold Wilson, about Ted Heath.
Wilson got it from Desmond Donnelly, who got it from…
Fess,
I think the major historical difference between Rudd and Abbott is that Rudd yearned and strived to be PM whereas Abbott didn’t.
Now that Abbott has achieved the highly improbable by becoming leader and then PM, I wouldn’t rule out his Machiavellian capacities.
But, hard to say what would happen.
As a poster who tends to pop up here only when things are on the boil, I’m wondering whatever happened to Psephos? Did I miss something exciting?
Did he retreat in embarrassment at having so relentlessly defended the coup against Rudd?
I did enjoy his posts very much though. Perhaps he’s off somewhere abroad again monitoring elections or something?
Jake:
You could be right, but my recollection over the years is that Abbott had an acute taste for the PMship, hence the trouble he’s finding himself in now with all those throwaway broken promises and inflated aspirational rhetoric he made coming back to bite him.
poroti:
Abbott’s own maneuverings aside, Nelson was never shown any respect by his colleagues from the day he became leader. Turnbull was undermined by an entire faction. I see the situations as quite different from Labor’s then LOTOs.
Fess,
He probably did have an acute taste for the PMship, but surely he must have thought he’d never actually become PM? After all, it was an unlikely sequence of events (the Hockey/Turnbull ballot stuffup) and the narrowest of margins that got him to the leadership. Or maybe that’s not so unlikely. Dunno.
But, look – he’s a very, very nasty piece of work. That much we do know.
Martin B @ 864 (and Question, and bemused): There are very few original political witticisms these days. The comment attributed to Gough Whitlam: “I have a deal with the Liberals: if they don’t tell lies about me, I won’t tell the truth about them” goes back at least to Adlai Stevenson.
Here’s my prediction – I’m a celebrity Get Me out of Here is going to rate it’s socks off. The block headed Dr Chris Brown not withstanding. You read it here first.
alias – I don’t know when Psephos left. But in the words of Campbell Newman you can Google him and you’ll easily find his website. It has an amazing array of worldwide electoral information on literally every election and parliament in the world.
Cate Blanchett and Deb Mailman are killing it at the AACTA’s.
Great stuff. As for Essie Davis, hubba bubba.
Jake:
Actually I think the Liberals waged a very carefully crafted and targetted campaign to return to govt. From what I can determine Credlin deserves the lion’s share of kudos on that front.
[The comment attributed to Gough Whitlam: “I have a deal with the Liberals: if they don’t tell lies about me, I won’t tell the truth about them” goes back at least to Adlai Stevenson.]
With that rhetorical template later adapted by Reagan.
Yes I had a look thanks Rocket Rocket.
Just wondered if, as sometimes happens in these sort of places, there had been high drama or something that led to his departure.
On a separate subject entirely: a dramatic and unexpected departure from the fascinating and always readable British-born US blogger Andrew Sullivan.
He gives a long explanation but it boils down to health concerns, time to smell roses, and accumulated toll of blogging for 15 years straight. Sad really as he had just got a subscriber base up and running and was doing quite well.
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/
fess – if I ran the Liberals I would dump Tony, and put Credlin up for a by-election in Wentworth. I am not kidding!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/new-raaf-jets-to-be-able-to-shoot-back/story-fn3dxiwe-1227201135691
Link posted earlier.
It felt like I was reading an article from The Onion.
@ Rocket Rocket, 877
I think you mean Warringah – Wentworth is Turnbull’s seat.
alias – someone else will know when/why. I was obviously too busy in “First Life” to see it happen.
And what ever happened to “Second Life” anyway? About ten years ago wasn’t it going to take over the internet and commerce and human interactions etc etc?
RR:
Credlin for Wentworth? Not feeling that, although rich toffs tend to vote 1 whoever is their Liberal candidate.
arnnea – a true “Freudian Slip” – I had already changed leaders in my mind!
alias:
I’ve read Sully’s posts semi regularly for some years now. I’m somewhat disappointed he’s departing, but can understand his reasonings.
I am still hearing the Libs’ Plan D is quickly moving up to Plan B…
Abbott to remain PM — but assumes largely a ceremonial role due to unspecified “health concerns”. Julie Bishop named as PM Regent to act as Prime Minister, with Turnbull as her official guide/chaperone.
This is apparently the only scenario that would appropriately appease the various Lib factions — just shows the schizophrenic madness of that party today…
I don’t recall whether Psephos left for any particular reason, but I do recall, after, a bunch of lurkers who would pop up and disparage him whenever his name was mentioned.
I’m half expecting them to pop up again :P.
That seems…”improbable” is rating it too highly.
[ I’m half expecting them to pop up again 😛 . ]
Bit like posting something with a G or an R in it and then getting to call “bingo!!” 🙂
always hoping for some inside knowledge or early poll here but not tonite – more friendly post event banter …
labor queensland
Between the fact that they have no clear problem-free alternative, the nature of the man they are dealing with, and the extraordinary shit-eating they will have to do over it, the Libs will try almost anything to avoid having to dump a first term PM, even one as bad as Abbott.
There is a separate Queensland thread but I can’t help feeling that the so-called GST gaffe will be blown out of all proportion and prove very damaging to AP. Newman has cancelled his regional tour to return to Brisbane to tackle ALP costings. Gives appearance he smells blood after the GST thing and is going for broke to discredit AP. Probably won’t save his own seat though.
I thought this was amusing. The West Australian has a review of a new film Foxcatcher. Extracts of the review:
[at Foxcatcher things go from strange to plain weird as du Pont, a patriot who sees himself a great leader of men and charged with the mission of restoring America to its former glory, takes on the role of head coach even though he has never wrestled before and knows next to nothing about the sport.]
[Never has pomposity and self-delusion been so devastatingly captured. Next thing you know he’ll be conferring knighthoods on his wrestlers. ]
Read Abbott for du Pont, taking on the role of PM rather than head coach and it all fits quite well.
Well maybe we can chew on this for a while.
I have a bad dose of schadenfreude and maybe you lot can get rid of it.
It strikes me that the poor old Libs are multiply screwed whichever way they jump on a couple of issues.
Maybe you can give them advice as to how they can escape the dire consequences that face them which ever way they turn and cure my condition.
For example:
Should Tony sack Credlin?
Option A
If he doesn’t then Rupert will be unhappy and all those Libs who hate women in general and Peta in particular will be unhappy and Tony will be seen to have squibbed the problem and the rot will continue.
Option B
If he does sack Credlin then Rupert will be happy but not for long cos every body outside the Lib party and its urgers knows that she is not the problem and the rot will continue.
In addition the nasty rumour I read somewhere that Tony is just Rupert’s puppet, or muppet as some suggested, will be confirmed again and that will displease the punters and the rot will continue.
WSTD?
What Should Tony Do so the rot won’t continue?
On the bus today there was a discarded telegraph, since I was on my way to a doctors appointment at a local hospital I took it with me. The front page had something to do snails holding up Baird’s infrastructure projects.
While waiting to be called I turned to the letter page, all those opposed to the Knighting of Sir Phillip blamed Credlin surprise surprise. Some agreed with the article written by Miranda Devine (that name always brings to my mind a stripper or a Drag Queen).
The only thing worthwhile was a cartoon by Warren labelled losing cedlibility sic , it had Abbot and Credlin walking, Abbott in a Jesters suit with a union jack on it and the words team oz.
Abbott is saying to Credlin “I might have to let you go Peta, you’re becoming a laughing stock”
Tried to find a link but could’nt.
WarrenPeace.. I have to ask: are you the same WarrenPeace as on expectingrain.com?
fredex
Posted Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 11:25 pm | PERMALINK
Well maybe we can chew on this for a while.
I have a bad dose of schadenfreude and maybe you lot can get rid of it.
It strikes me that the poor old Libs are multiply screwed whichever way they jump on a couple of issues.
Maybe you can give them advice as to how they can escape the dire consequences that face them which ever way they turn and cure my condition.
For example:
Should Tony sack Credlin?
Option A
If he doesn’t then Rupert will be unhappy and all those Libs who hate women in general and Peta in particular will be unhappy and Tony will be seen to have squibbed the problem and the rot will continue.
Option B
If he does sack Credlin then Rupert will be happy but not for long cos every body outside the Lib party and its urgers knows that she is not the problem and the rot will continue.
In addition the nasty rumour I read somewhere that Tony is just Rupert’s puppet, or muppet as some suggested, will be confirmed again and that will displease the punters and the rot will continue.
WSTD?
What Should Tony Do so the rot won’t continue?
—–the rot goes deeper than that but good analysis
the whole Lp in country has unravelled along with murdoch … labor hegemony whether deserved or not
fredex @ 893
I can’t see how Abbott could possibly sack Credlin (or even how she could resign, as patriotic as she is).
First, if he does, he will clearly be seen to be doing Murdoch’s bidding. In terms of public standing for Abbott, that will be suicidal for him as PM as it will force those who don’t want to believe that he is just Murdoch’s puppet. He will look utterly weak, gutless and disloyal. His personal polling and his party’s will collapse.
Secondly, it seems to me that Credlin’s main failing lately has been to not spot Abbott’s bizarre moments and stop them from happening. If she can’t do it, who can. He can only get worse, not better, without her to rein him in. It would be even harder to find another CoS to manage Abbott effectively than it would be to find a successor PM who could actually unite the Liberal Party.
The rot will continue while Tony is there because the problem at the heart of it is Tony. It always was – it’s just that everybody but us left of centre tragics were looking everywhere but the obvious place.
alias
No but i took this name from a movie called Sky High. War’n Peace is the son of a super hero and a super villain, maybe the other one did to.
geoffrey at 896
[labor hegemony whether deserved or not]
The Abbott Coalition Government experience has demonstrated that it will not be enough any more to just win power. If Labor want to do something constructive with that power they will need to make the case for their policies.
If nothing else, it will give them a stronger leverage over the Senate cross-benchers if they actually win an election on the policies .Lambie, Xenophon, Ricky Muir and, possibly, the two PUP Senators all appear to actually respect mandates to some degree, especially if the mandate is won with argument rather than slogan. And they will all be there in the next Parliament unless a DD is called.
But, I think, it will also enable Labor to retain its public support once elected. It can be done.
I wonder if labor could seal abbott’s fate by calling for calm and an end to media rumor mongering, saying – “The media love this, but the average person in the street doesn’t. It was wrong when it happened to PM Gillard and it is wrong now. The media should back off – making Prince Philip a Sir was stupid, but it is not and should not be a hanging offence. Let’s forget about leadership spill speculation and focus on what the liberal party are trying to do the fair go in Australia – this is what needs to be debated. Tony Abbott’s government is unpopular because its policies attack average and less well of Australians but lets the wealthiest off pretty much scott free. In a fair Australia, those who afford to pay should and those who need a hand up should get it. We support fair financial reforms – we support sensible and fair efficiencies (and note that most of those achieved under liberals were put in place by labor government); we support closing unaffordable tax loopholes and rorts the liberal party created for their mates and are now hurting; we support increasing the medicare levy for people earning more than $150,000 per year; we support means testing for government support and income credits to get people back to work. we support an education and health system that gives every Australian to do as well as they can, and will not throw people onto the scrap heap because of poor health or bad luck. That’s the debate we need, and that’s the debate Mr Abbott and his government should be judged on. Personally, knighting prince philip is one of the least offensive and less harmful things Mr Abbott has done or is trying to do to Australians and Australia’s inherent belief in the fair go.”
then they could leak that the reason they asked to cut abbott some slack is that they think the liberal party is headed for a 5-10% swing under abbott.
if they frame the debate this way, they’ll be able to pick up the theme for any the new leader – “New leader, same un-Australian policies”.
I also they should hop into Murdoch and his renouncing Australian citizenship for greed and power, but then thinking he has some right to try to dictate to the australian PM. I want a question in parliament – “Why does Mr Murdoch have your direct phone number and how often doe he call to tell you what to do?” – debate about the sub-standard NBN and protection of Mr Murdoch’s interests from this could be worth raising, with some export advice about what it will cost to bring the NBN up to world’s best practice and the waste of the libs pathetic strings and tin cans system that needs upgrading the moment it is installed. “Instead of investing is a system that would serve all Australians interests into the future, the liberal government has opted for a sham of a system that only serves one ex-Australians interests and will cost taxpayers billions to fix on top of the billions spent on this farcical system”. go now while Turnbull might be rising I say, so he can be hit in the future.