Newspoll: Cairns, Ipswich West and Keppel poll

A new result for Newspoll provides Labor with a great headline, but as a small-sample poll with a combined result for three very disparate electorates, it’s very hard to say how much it might mean.

The Australian has a Newspoll result of somewhat dubious utility, in which three disparate electorates – Cairns, Keppel and far distant Ipswich West – were targeted with small samples of 200 respondents each, the composite result indicating a reversal from 57.4-42.6 to the LNP in 2012 to 56-44 to Labor now. Which is obviously very good news for Labor, but how good is extremely hard to say. On the primary vote, Labor is up from 31% to 47%, the LNP down from 43.5% to 35%, the Greens down from 6.6% to 5% and others down from 18.9% to 13%, Katter’s Australian Party having done well in all three seats in 2012 but not contesting this time.

Campbell Newman cops a particularly tough mark of 32% approval to 60% disapproval, though whether this reflects a decline in his fortunes since previous campaign polls or peculiarity of sentiment in these electorates is, once again, impossible to say. The same goes for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s strong ratings of 45% approval and 33% disapproval, her 46-36 lead as preferred premier, and the LNP’s unusually narrow lead of 44-36 as party expected to win.

The rationale behind polling these seats is clearly to get a sense of how things are looking in seats in the 6-9% range, but since similar margins is all these seats have in common, I’m not sure how illuminating it is. Basically, I’d much rather have seen Newspoll’s efforts dedicated to a particular region, or even just one seat, than a scattershot look at three electorates that have nothing to do with each other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

211 comments on “Newspoll: Cairns, Ipswich West and Keppel poll”

  1. 54

    Does the Queensland Constitution have a ban on holders of foreign citizenships being MPs (like the Commonwealth Constitution does for the Commonwealth Parliament)?

    If not, then there is no issue.

  2. Tom

    Without checking the Qld constitution I can say that there have been cases of foreign citizens as MPs in the past. In fact one MP was INTERNED in WWI and then deported because he was a German citizen. His wife and kids stayed in Qld and became/are highly prominent citizens (mostly medical).

  3. 58

    Was he a dual citizen/subject (Australian`s nationality was British Subject in those days) or was he only a German but still allowed to be an MP?

  4. [William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, January 24, 2015 at 4:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Please tell me he’s kidding! Only governing to benefit areas that elect his party…that’s something I’d expect to see in the Third World!

    Or Victoria. The last time I heard such a thing was from Jeff Kennett in 1999.]

    Seems to be a Tory thing doesn’t it? Anything at all in the pursuit of power. That’s their motto.

  5. [“Does the Queensland Constitution have a ban on holders of foreign citizenships being MPs “]

    No.. but if there is a rule against political dynasties she is in deep trouble.

  6. [davidwh
    Posted Saturday, January 24, 2015 at 5:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Newman is sounding a bit desperate. Next Galaxy could be interesting.]

    Might we expect a Galaxy tomorrow and then on polling day?

  7. TBA @ 66:
    [quote]”No.. but if there is a rule against political dynasties she is in deep trouble.”[/quote]

    Campbell Newman’s father, Kevin, represented the federal seat of Bass and was a minister in the Fraser government. His mother, Jocelyn, was a Senator for Tasmania and a minister in the Howard government. (From Wikipedia)

  8. @69

    I don’t think you understand.

    The ALP has neoptistic political dynasties.

    The Libs have upstanding families with a tradition of public service.

  9. Campbell Newman reminds me of what Huey Long used to say during election campaigns: “Those who get on my bandwagon now, you will get the biggest share of the spoils when I win; those who wait, but get on my bandwagon before the election, will still get something; and those who don’t get on my bandwagon, well, you’ll get good government.”

  10. Bit rich for you lot to be playing up nepotism.

    AP inherits daddy’s seat and has an undistingiushed career prior to it.

    CN whose mother and father were Tasmanian MP’s goes to the army and makes his own way in QLD and is a succesful Lord Mayor who ends a long term Labor government with a record ( where presumably his parents would have had zero political influence).

    The hereditary principle is Labor’s own special principle Gentlemen.Bit rich for you lot to chortle about it.

  11. ESJ,

    Your esteemed colleague TBA raised the spectre of hereditary dynasties in politics.

    Newman seems to fit the profile comrade.

  12. davidwh @ 65

    Newman is sounding a bit desperate. Next Galaxy could be interesting.

    Momentum has changed in the last few days, since Newman’s poorly thought out response to Jones’ comments. He’s been scoring own goals ever since then.

    He’s reminding voters what his term was like before the party implemented ‘Operation Boring’.

  13. Not only that but Newman’s latest accusations regarding bikie links to Labor’s campaign draws strong parallels to Labor’s attacks on Newman last election.

    I’m sure that didn’t help Labor and will likely backfire for the LNP on this occasion. Very foolish. Perhaps some internal polling has sparked the odd shift in strategy?

  14. Anyone who thinks that Newman’s connections counted for nothing in Qld is not serious. But it’s true that the connections weren’t as direct as, say, the Anthonys or the Courts or the Downers.

    Like factions, both major parties are riven with them but the conservatives like to keep this pretence that they’re really not like that ALP.

  15. Surely the latest ‘debating point’ put up by Newman, and reinforced after the debate, is the kind of thing that puts off people who are totally disengaged with politics.

    “He said what!? That’s a bit rich…”

  16. In this electorate we have had a long term alp rep who was dis-endorsed, suspended sentence for corruption then disappeared.
    His handpicked replacement was no more than an a**licker who was defeated by a reformed drug addict 3 years ago.
    Now we are being asked to vote for a ….union rep.
    Exactly what a government needs. Another …union rep.
    “Paid your union dues comrade”
    Tom Burns was the last Labor man.Since rudd and swan got their hooks into the alp,all we’ve had have been green socialists.
    I have a two bob coin.
    One side has greens, the other clive.
    Toss a coin.Pick a looney.

  17. [“Apparently Newman has said there is no evidence of his claim that Bikies are funding the ALP campaign”]

    I think the chances of at least 1 Bikie, somewhere in Queensland, donating something to the Queensland ALP cause in the last 2.5 Years is pretty much a given.

    Things usually get pretty nasty in the last few days so lets see where this goes

  18. Given that Palaszczuk also has a law degree, and won her preselection on merit in a free vote of her party’s members, surely the LNP stooges can come up with a slightly more plausible line of irrelevant personal attack.

  19. ESJ

    [succour the cfmeu and you have to wear the downside of that association as well.]

    The only people going on with the CFMEU line in Victoria is the Liberals. Nobody else cares.

  20. TBA

    “AP inherits daddy’s seat and has an undistingiushed career prior to it.”

    Don’t forget the Arts Degree

    It’s a bit rich attacking someone’s family background and their education.

    The Federal Queensland seat of Longman is occupied by the member Wyatt Roy, but no one’s picked up on his lack of a career or incomplete degree, because it’s just not on.

  21. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 4h 4 hours ago
    Newman saying it is up to QLD Labor to disprove his accusation re bikie money is akin to someone proving their innocence. Simply bizarre…]

  22. @TBA so your lnp bias can’t accept anyone who has not got a stiff upper lip tory surname. I have a German surname and according to you, I or any member of my family have no right run for parliament. What a pathetic bigotted outlook. Well let look at your mate that (not who) we Queenslander who have no time for to the point of outright hatred because of the corruption and lies. That is the sort of a person and party you support.

  23. @davidwh She was born here and went to school at St Mary’s in Ipswich, which is more than I can say for Txic Tony and has Toxic renounced his dual citizenship?. Now let’s look at state of origin, Caustic Campbell should got back to where he came, he doesn’t even live in the electorate he temporarlily represents.

  24. @confessions Newman makes wild, slanderous accusations and it up to the accused to prove themselves innocent smakes of the lnp outlook on the community. This little person has been premier for nearly 3 years and doesn’t know the meaning of “Separation of Powers”. No wonder we’re almost back to pre-Fitzgerald days up here.

  25. Newman’s idea of campaign strategy in the last 24-48 hours – especially with reference to Alan Jones and bikie donations – has me more or less totally mystified. Perhaps he is just much better than this and thinks publicly behaving like an incoherent mimophantic thug (still) works in Queensland and I wouldn’t be too surprised if does. Alas I’ll be away by the time signs of it appear in polling.

  26. Just check in here Kevin. PB is generally always up to date.

    Re Newman it’s either a smart strategy, the smartness escapes me, or he is rattled.

  27. davidwh@97

    Just check in here Kevin. PB is generally always up to date.

    I mean seriously away – not sure I will even have internet for a week and a half, though I’m trying to at least get something sorted for election night. Very remote scientific fieldwork the dates to which were unfortunately set long before Campbell got this little idea to have a January election.

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