BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings you a probe deep into the innards of the parties’ fortunes state by state.

Essential Research will end the silly season polling drought early next week, and we might also get a Morgan result if the precedent of last year is anything to go by. Newspoll is probably about three more weeks away, Ipsos maybe another week after that, and with Galaxy and ReachTEL you can never really tell. In the meantime, you can enjoy the detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack which I have taken to publishing on a quarterly basis. If you’d like commentary with that, you can read it at Crikey if you’re a subscriber, as you should be. If looming state elections are more your bag, check the two posts beneath this one for fresh polling from Queensland and New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. Re Howard and Iraq
    _______________
    I agree that Howard won’t apologise for anything,nor will his fellow criminal associates Bush or Blair
    All western policies in the M east have failed over a long period of times

    Looking back to 2003,it was a time of relatively stability in the M East
    So Saddam was a dictator,but he was no islamist,no for that matter was Gadaffi or is the Syrian leader …but the destruction of Saddam’s regime opened the door to a host of troubles …and Libya is now a failed state,much of it controlled by armed islamist groups,with refugees flooding into Italy(180.000 in 2014)

  2. I disagree totally with Daniel Andrew’s decision on McDonalds setting up in a public hospital.

    It is junk/crap food, and we should be discouraging this as strongly and often as possible.

    I saw Andrews give that press conference, and, for the first time, I found his attitude arrogant and irresponsible.

    Common sense should dictate that, where possible, governments should be discouragain the consumption of crap food.

    Please reverse the decision, Mr Andrews.

  3. Re Musicals
    ___________
    I think the huge success of Andrew Lloyd Weber’s musicals is due to the operatic style of many of them…at a time when modern grand operas are awful beyond belief

    I watched portion of one on ABC TV once… “Nixon in China” and worse …one on the building of the Sydney Opera House…atonal and so bad as to be like a parody

    It seems that the last great operas died with Pucinni
    My pref for opera is with the great Italians(NEVER Wagner.or any germans ).
    Wagner .of who Shaw said”His music is better than it sounds”

  4. LU@733 and zoomster@744

    I’m not sure I agree with the proposition put forward.

    Massive inequality has been a fact of life in most human societies: for example, the available evidence would seem to indicate that (Marx’s concept of “primitive communism” notwithstanding) most tribal societies were extremely unequal in the distribution of available food and other resources.

    Revolutions involving peasants holding pitchforks have typically been preceded by several years of crop failure: so that it is desperation, rather than resentment, that has driven them to rebel. Even more significant is the well-being of the armed forces: history has shown that governments/ruling classes that don’t adequately feed or pay their soldiers are asking for trouble.

    The modern USA and many other advanced western societies certainly have a very skewed distribution of wealth, but, for the most part, nobody is forced to starve. It’s not clear to me that any society in which even the poorest people are adequately fed (or would be if they made sensible lifestyle choices) is likely to experience a revolution. I am not aware of any historical instances.

    This is not to say that I think that increasing inequality that we are seeing in many western nations is a good thing. But I think it is perhaps a second order issue compared to trends in the absolute standard of living of the less well-off (say, the bottom quartile).

    And the absolute standard of living of even the least wealthy people in western countries has risen through the roof over the last 50-100 years. Today even most relatively poor Australians have access to running hot and cold water, stoves, electricity, motor cars, televisions, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, etc, etc, as well as an ever widening range of food types. Sure, they might grumble and feel resentful that a small group of people in their societies have yachts and helicopters and servants and whatever. But would that resentment be enough to make them come together politically and overturn the existing social order?

    I very much doubt it.

  5. Q:

    [Not a big fan of Macca’s, but I imagine to many it is a form of comfort food, which is not a bad thing in hospital. I would be more worried about schools than hospitals.]

    Not a big fan either. I’m not against it being in hospitals, but definitely not schools.

    I still remember that scene from ‘Supersize Me’ where school kids were being served junk food at the cafeteria. At another school, healthy food was being served (at no more cost than the junk), and the kids were found to have better focus and concentration in classes.

    I’ve got nothing against Macca’s as a family restaurant. But I do take issue with the junk food lobby, and the push by McDonald’s to inveigle themselves into children’s sports.

  6. I can’t begin to grasp why a hospital would allow commercial supply of edible consumables that would not fit within the rubric of the recommendations of optimal dietary practice. Whether the supplier is McDonalds or some local ready-to-go merchant is neither here nor there.

    While hospitals can’t stop people putting undesirable stuff into their digestive tracts, they ought not to enable it, IMO.

  7. deblonay

    [I think the huge success of Andrew Lloyd Weber’s musicals is due to the operatic style of many of them…at a time when modern grand operas are awful beyond belief]

    Terry Pratchett’s ‘Maskerade’ hilariously lampoons the switch from opera to musical.

  8. feeny @753 – MacDonald’s have had an outlet at Royal Melbourne Childrens Hospital since at least the late 1990’s. So it’s not that he’s allowing them to set up, he’s declining to kick them out.

  9. meher

    I don’t think you can compare poor Australians to poor Americans – the former are much, much better off, and we really don’t have such thing as the working poor (mainly because we do have the minimum wages this guy is lobbying for).

    To some extent, I’m amazed America hasn’t already fallen apart, but put that down to the power of the dream.

  10. fran

    When I was in hospital after the birth of my first child, new mums were offered, as a matter of course, milk with chocolate syrup in it.

    A lot of the new mums were saying what a fantastic idea it was, and that they would continue to drink it when they got home.

    Problem is, chocolate inhibits the uptake of calcium, so the hospital was encouraging something which was counterproductive.

  11. Libertarian Unionist @751

    [Musicals are for bad actors who can’t sing and bad singers who can’t act.]

    Tell that to Rusty !

  12. [
    MacDonald’s have had an outlet at Royal Melbourne Childrens Hospital since at least the late 1990′s. So it’s not that he’s allowing them to set up, he’s declining to kick them out.
    ]

    Yes, I gather they first opened in the current RCH in 1991.

  13. for the most part, nobody is forced to starve. It’s not clear to me that any society in which even the poorest people are adequately fed (or would be if they made sensible lifestyle choices) is likely to experience a revolution. I am not aware of any historical instances.

    People’s expectations of freedom and justice in rich societies today are much higher than bare subsistence. Education levels are also much higher today than during the revolutions of the past. Major changes to the wealth distribution will be required in the United States to avert acute social crises.

  14. bakunin@756

    I’m not a big fan of Macca’s but they do deserve at least some credit for the work they do for seriously ill children and their families through the Ronald MacDonald House Charity.

    https://www.rmhc.org.au

    Yes, entirely altruistic!

    Now, can I interest you in a little investment proposition I have?

  15. meher: I think you might be taking the pitchforks too literally.

    [The modern USA and many other advanced western societies certainly have a very skewed distribution of wealth, but, for the most part, nobody is forced to starve. It’s not clear to me that any society in which even the poorest people are adequately fed (or would be if they made sensible lifestyle choices) is likely to experience a revolution. I am not aware of any historical instances.]

    Off the top of my head, how about the American revolution and war of independence?

  16. Sir Mad Cyril, I couldn’t find a date but walked past the hospital on a fairly regular basis for about 1999 so knew it had to be earlier than that.

    Bemused, yes I’m well aware there is benefit accruing to MacDonalds on a number of levels from the RMCH, still it’s not without merit.

  17. bakunin@769

    Sir Mad Cyril, I couldn’t find a date but walked past the hospital on a fairly regular basis for about 1999 so knew it had to be earlier than that.

    Bemused, yes I’m well aware there is benefit accruing to MacDonalds on a number of levels from the RMCH, still it’s not without merit.

    Oh dear… what would your namesake say? 🙁

  18. 760

    He has also ruled out banning them from the new Monash children`s hospital that is planned/under construction.

  19. meher
    re tribal societies – my understanding is that tribal societies were the most egalitarian.
    re resentment of yachts – i partly disagree with your analysis. IMO the growing resentment is also based on accountability, fairness, opportunity and power/disenfranchisement.
    re “very much doubt it” – i agree. no revolution this year – but some outbreaks of frustration. by most estimates, high unemployment is in the winds and a DROP in the standards of living for the bottom quintile while the top keep flourishing is fertile grounds no matter the running water and vacuum cleaners. people will not see their lot relative to 1750, they will compare it to living memory.

  20. I agree with almost every word of this article.

    I just think not even this can save them now

    Forget the GST on food. Abbott needs to present a new ‘grand bargain’ to the nation
    Kristina Keneally

  21. Some award for Sheer Hypocrisy should go to the Egyptian Foreign Minister who marched yesterday with sundry leaders in Paris…in favour of press freedom re the Hebdo killings…and who is part of a regime that curretly holds in jail three Al Jezzera journalists …one an Australian…for speading “false news “stories

  22. deb

    [and who is part of a regime that curretly holds in jail three Al Jezzera journalists …one an Australian…for speading “false news “stories]

    Very good question!

  23. deblonay @ 777

    Every great cause attracts hypocritical carpetbaggers.

    The important thing is to focus on the cause, not the marginal hangers-on.

  24. My atheism notwithstanding, my holiday reading has taken me on s journey back into the Languedoc region of mediaeval France, and the persecution by the Catholic Church of the ‘Cathars’. It’s a fascinating but grim story of an early attempt at genocide.

    The Cathars (a name that seems to have been a label chosen by their enemies rather than the folk themselves) seem to have been an early instance of a hippy Christian movement. They were vegetarians — not wanting to eat anything that was the product of sexual reproduction — and believing that humans who failed to achieve ‘perfection’ were doomed to be reincarnated perpetually until that time. Since they could be reincarnated as either males or females, and the body was seen as a mere vessel (and one created by Satan no less) women were seen as neither more no less worthy than men and could hold any position in their religious community. They rejected marriage, oaths and killing and had only one sacrament — the consolamente — a ritual of purification which could be performed only once in a lifetime, after which the beneficiary (then a perfecto) had to remain sin and desire free for the remainder of their Earthly life. Needless to say, most apparently waited until they were close to death to try this one.

    Sadly, the Catholic Church took a dim view of this and branded it heresy, and, spurred by the opportunity of land confiscation, induced a number of the northern French aristocracy to initiate a crusade against the Cathars. The campaign was brutal and in one place, Bezieres, the city was razed and One of the crusaders boasted to Pope Innocent 111 that he had slaughtered 20,000 people. Amazingly, those avowing fealty to the Pope were offered safe passage had been offered safe exits, but chose to stay and share the fate of their Cathar neighbours. Many of the citizens and others in Bezieres seem to have been tortured to death.

    These atrocities prefigured the inquisition and an extended campaign of murder and dispossession of those associated with the Cathars in France, Italy and Germany, and destruction of their artefacts and books. Interestingly, those few who recanted to save their lives were made as part of their penance to wear a large yellow cross as a mark of their previous bad faith. Hmmm …

  25. Tom the first and best@773

    760

    He has also ruled out banning them from the new Monash children`s hospital that is planned/under construction.

    Banning a particular firm is problematic.

    But it would be quite reasonable to set standards that any contender would need to meet.

  26. RCH guidelines in 2009 posted earlier….
    [To earn a place in the hospital, restaurant menus must feature:
    * At least 50 per cent “green” food, such as lean meat, fish, chicken, fruit, vegetables and plain water.
    * No more than 30 per cent “amber” food, including ice cream, muesli and snack bars, canned fruit, diet drinks and fruit juice.
    * “Red” foods – such as chips, deep fried foods, chocolate bars, lollies, chips and soft drinks – to make up no more than 20 per cent.]

    Too busy trying to identify a little robin/thornbill/flycatcher/fantail thingo thats clearing out the spiders in my window to research the current guidelines for food outlets in the hospital.

  27. Has anyone noted that the leaks about the Lindt Siege have come when the public is distracted by events in france. ARe they, by some chance, related?
    The SMH story (about some police being unhappy about being forced to wait) also suggests that there is more bad news to come.

  28. [The modern USA and many other advanced western societies certainly have a very skewed distribution of wealth, but, for the most part, nobody is forced to starve. It’s not clear to me that any society in which even the poorest people are adequately fed (or would be if they made sensible lifestyle choices) is likely to experience a revolution. I am not aware of any historical instances.]

    I know a number of people who were genuinely concerned that the GFC as it unfolded presented a real risk of uprising.

    The great American lie, it was always a lie but never more so than now, is that anyone can make if they only work hard. Wealth carries with it virtue in the collective unconscious. We have a bit of that here but it rubs up uncomfortably against the deeply ingrained distrust of power and influence – tall poppy syndrome if you will.

    By and large also we do not have a really really poor working class like they do in the US.

    They also have guns and a massive military peopled by largely poor folk.

    The article talked about wealthy progressives and conservatives working together. In the US a nightmare scenario could easily revolve around a force that united the very poor across racial and political lines.

  29. Isn’t the big question whether, if Maccas is at the hospital, that means that visitors will not get the option of eating healthy (real) food. How many other outlets are available? Does Maccas have a monopoly

  30. bakunin @ 769

    I didn’t know that but my sentiments are the same.

    Andrews made it clear he will allow the new Monash hospital to proceed.

    I appreciate I’m in a minority on this point but governments should act and hospitals should do likewise to keep this and other crap food out of hospitals.

  31. The nurses in our hospital threatened work bans when hot chips were removed from the hospital cafe menu.

    I don’t eat McDonalds but lots if sick kids love it and there aren’t any kids in hospital because of eating McDonalds.

  32. The Cathars would have been a self-solving problem for the Holy Roman Catholic Church if they had eschewed plants that reproduce sexually, as well as animals that reproduce sexually.

    I guess science was not their strong point.

    The Church finally succeeded in suppressing the Cathars by recognising that they needed to target the people (messengers, urgers, stirrers – whatever) who moved between communities as the first priority.

  33. Fran Barlow
    __________
    Re The Cathars and their persecution in Frace by the Catholic Chuch
    Some years ago travelling in France we found a museum in Albi,in the Languedoc,which told the story re the Cathers
    I think some of them were called Albigensians at one time
    The Shurch at that time was a merciless as any moslem fundamentalists…as the Crusades show

    Interesting too that in all the years thst followed,that region was always a place of opposition to church and crown
    In modern times it was one of the first places to become a socialist stronghold and in the 30ies and 40ies a communist heartland,notably during the post-occupation period in 1944-45 when the communist led resistace took over cities like Albi and Toulouse for some weeks at the time of Liberation…and carried out many trials against Vichy collaborators before De Gaulle could restore the French state’s authority

  34. feeney@793

    bakunin @ 769

    I didn’t know that but my sentiments are the same.

    Andrews made it clear he will allow the new Monash hospital to proceed.

    I appreciate I’m in a minority on this point but governments should act and hospitals should do likewise to keep this and other crap food out of hospitals.

    I actually doubt you are in a minority, at least on PB.

  35. I can’t believe how dumb McDonalds are. Company wants to build café in hospital (same motive as KFC and cricket) / health experts respond by saying McDonalds is a health hazard / public reminded that junk food food is bad for you and best to avoid it. McDonalds and Andrews are the losers from this.

  36. Diogenes@794

    The nurses in our hospital threatened work bans when hot chips were removed from the hospital cafe menu.

    I don’t eat McDonalds but lots if sick kids love it and there aren’t any kids in hospital because of eating McDonalds.

    Yes, they go as adults with clogged arteries.

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