BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings you a probe deep into the innards of the parties’ fortunes state by state.

Essential Research will end the silly season polling drought early next week, and we might also get a Morgan result if the precedent of last year is anything to go by. Newspoll is probably about three more weeks away, Ipsos maybe another week after that, and with Galaxy and ReachTEL you can never really tell. In the meantime, you can enjoy the detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack which I have taken to publishing on a quarterly basis. If you’d like commentary with that, you can read it at Crikey if you’re a subscriber, as you should be. If looming state elections are more your bag, check the two posts beneath this one for fresh polling from Queensland and New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. mexicanbeemer

    Do you think that McDonalds wants to associate itself with the things a hospital represents: healing, wellness, and nurturing?

    Public health behaviours are strongly influenced by perceptions. McDonalds clearly wants people to perceive that since even hospitals host them, their product has nothing to do with ill health. The public health evidence shows otherwise.

  2. lizzie

    Posted Monday, January 12, 2015 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    mb

    Don’t worry. Abbott has set up a Medical Research Fund to cure all ills.

    Just don’t get ill or contract any diseases over the next 10-20 years while the fund stumbles its way to $20Bn and you’ll be fine

  3. Nicholas,

    McDonalds invest. They provide jobs for a vast army of people. They source most of their produce locally. So, keep our farmers gainfully employed. They also support local sporting groups and other charities. AFAIK they pay their taxes and by all accounts are very good corporate citizens.

    This, of course, is sufficient grounds for the sanctimonious to lecture us all about how terrible they really are.

    However, no one forces you to eat their products and you always have the option to walk down the street to find an alternative. Although, you seem risk averse to such an athletic alternative from your previous comments.

    So, overall, I’d say they are a legitimate business selling a legitimate product in a lawful way.

    How people spend their mony is really none of your business.

  4. The odds aren’t good for Liberal party Deputy leaders later becoming Prime Minister —

    1944 Sir Eric Harrison

    1956 Harold Holt Later Prime Minister 1966–67

    1966 Sir William McMahon Later Prime Minister 1971–72

    1971 Sir John Gorton Previously Prime Minister 1968–71

    1971 Sir Billy Snedden Later Leader

    1972 Sir Phillip Lynch

    1982 John Howard Later Prime Minister 1996–2007

    1985 Neil Brown

    1987 Andrew Peacock Previously & Later Leader

    1989 Fred Chaney

    1990 Peter Reith

    1993 Michael Wooldridge

    1994 Peter Costello

    200 Julie Bishop

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Australia#Liberal_federal_deputy_leaders

  5. Re: Macccas in public hospitals.
    Who cares? Money talks and bullshit walks.
    They’re only in there because they coughed up the readies to do so. In other words, they won the auction. If you are a parent and/or a consumer you have a choice. Walk on by as the song goes.
    Some of our green friends here are totally delusional.

  6. Nicholas

    Maccas is what it is, a junk food restaurant, Maccas is a cheap snack.

    There are other options at the RCH if the parents don’t want to go to maccas.

    I don’t think even maccas would see themselves as having much to do with wellness or healing.

  7. [Pretty much every adult hospital has a kids ward and of course kids visits sick relatives so I would question the suitability]

    Nicely played, with a straight bat and soft hands…

    Now here’s one for you, Nicholas – should a State Government be dispensing synthetic opiates in a large public hospital? I mean, think of the health risks of seeing that going on. Denken Sie an die Kinder!

  8. Nicholas,

    You were proposing to set up a brothel in hospitals the other day. Did you get get a cold sponge down and recover your composure?

  9. Here is a link to a list of Australian massacres.

    While there has been some discussion about what the Koran does or does not say, and how the Koran might or might not be interpreted, the christians have a fairly plain and straightforward commandment: ‘Thou shalt not kill.’ But, as we all know, most Koran followers would not dream of killing anyone and some christians do kill people.

    My point is that the religionists can choose their texts and their poisons – there is no deterministic connection between text and actual behaviour.

    World-wide, well over two billion christians and muslims spend their days leading perfectly ordinary normal lives.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Australia

  10. Just read the wikipedia entry on MMT. Still don’t totally get how the various forms of Keynesianism disagree with it..is anyone able to put it in layman’s terms for me?

  11. This list of riots underepresents certain countries but it still makes for interesting, if rather exhausting, perusal.

    Australia does get a few dishonourable mentions but do not appear to be world-class when it comes to rioting.

    OTOH, one would think that the Freedom to Riot is a fundamental part of the US Constitution.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_riots

  12. [So, overall, I’d say they are a legitimate business selling a legitimate product in a lawful way.]

    Exactly the same argument used for cigarettes, coal and casinos.

  13. briefly,

    FWIW December was huge for loans. Agree that Novemeber was flat/slow. But it wasn’t terrible.

    I wrote more than twice my previous best ever month in December and I know many of my coleagues had an outstanding month.

    2015 seems to have started OK too.

  14. lizzie,

    Perhaps you should turn off all the electricity in public hospitals as an acknowlegeement of your displeasure about coal sourced electricity.

    That’ll learn those kids and their families.

  15. Briefly,

    I am getting a lot of feedback from tradies that this is one of the strongest starts to a year – and this is in dolldrums Adelaide. Across the board….new houses, renos, additions, commercial…. but all small scale stuff.

    I know many tradies that worked through the holidays.

  16. [701
    Nicholas

    Do you think that McDonalds wants to associate itself with the things a hospital represents: healing, wellness, and nurturing?

    Public health behaviours are strongly influenced by perceptions.]

    While I agree with the arguments against selling poor quality food in hospitals (or schools – don’t even start !), it is quite obviously not the case that food choices are influenced by “perceptions”. If this were so, our diets would be very different.

    Most appetites are autonomic. Dietary preferences are involuntarily switched to drive selection of salty, fatty, sweet stuff. If humans didn’t like eating this rubbish, manufacturers wouldn’t make it and retailers wouldn’t sell it.

    Perhaps we should regard a lot of our eating as examples of addiction.

    Humans are easily addicted to lots of things – nicotine, many foods, caffeine, pornography, alcohol and other drugs, gambling, sports-viewing, social media, video-gaming are obvious examples.

    I’m addicted to caffeine and social media and at one time was a compulsive consumer of fatty and salty foods. More lately I’ve tried to create a substitute addiction to endorphins, though with only limited success.

    (For the remarkably little it is worth, I should add I really don’t think it helps to moralise and create new stigmas in relation to all this stuff. We need to try to apply more reason and fewer insults if we want to improve our understanding and our ability to make effective choices.)

  17. [ Boerwar

    Posted Monday, January 12, 2015 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Here is a link to a list of Australian massacres.

    While there has been some discussion about what the Koran does or does not say, and how the Koran might or might not be interpreted, the christians have a fairly plain and straightforward commandment: ‘Thou shalt not kill.’ But, as we all know, most Koran followers would not dream of killing anyone and some christians do kill people.
    ]

    Or as noted US libertarian Lawyer Clarence Darrow once supposedly said :

    I have never killed any one, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction.

  18. Troy, I’m not sure MMT does clash with Keynesian ideas, but they operate somewhat orthogonal to one another.

    Keynesianism emphasises the role of fiscal policy in stimulating demand in the presence of over-supply and recession/depression. In this case, lowering interest rates to stimulate investment, and through that, demand, does nothing, as different types of economic entities are responsible for the different responses. Basically, if you want to juice demand, it’s more effective to give average people (with a higher propensity to consume) cash that to give it to holders of capital to invest – as Rudd and Swan did in 2007.

    MMT postulates that Govt debt is no problem if the debt is in a sovereign currency, i.e. fiat, as the Govt can always print to escape it’s obligations. So any debt the Govt accumulates from stimulating demand can be dealt with, one way or another. There are issues with doing this too often, however, as Argentina knows all two well.

  19. zoomster@666: Re Americans and Gilbert and Sullivan.

    I too have noted the frequent references in American movies and TV shows: eg, an episode of the West Wing which ended with all the main characters gave a spontaneous full-blooded rendition of “He is an Englishman” from HMS Pinafore.

    G&S always seems to have been very popular in the US, right back to when the works were written. Light comic opera of various types was always big in the US, especially New York and eventually evolved into the Broadway musical as we now know it.

    My impression is that G&S continue to be about as popular across North America as they are here. I spoken to both US and Canadian people who remember performing in G&S musicals at school.

    Personally, I find G&S dated and dull: especially in productions where don’t use Gilbert’s original words and substitute some sort of attempt at contemporary humour (Julian Morrow’s dad used to do rewrites that were not particularly funny for Australian Opera productions: possibly he still does, I’m not sure).

    But I did like that movie Topsy-Turvy.

  20. Briefly re loans and housing markets,

    The clients of these guys are either not getting the bearish mood or are in the class bracket where their income and assets are cushioned.

  21. meher

    I’m not sure G&S are that popular here. I get the impression that productions of their musicals are common at American Universities – they certainly weren’t at Melbourne thirty years ago.

    My mother studied at the Con. in Melbourne in the 1950s, which is not only where I get my G&S knowledge from but also my general impression that was its heyday in Australia.

  22. Never mind McDonald’s.

    I have a serious problem with the commonwealth bank sponsorship of cricket. All those impressionable kiddies who love Dave Warner encouraged to hitch their financial wagon to the commonwealth without knowing the bank’s appalling record in dealing with very dodgy practices by its financial advisers …. Do you think the bank is pouring millions into cricket because all it wants is Australia to have the best team in the world so we will all bask in the glow? Do the cricket ads have a warning about dealing with banks?

    Just kidding … The whole corporate sponsorship thing is a can of worms if you draw a long enough bow. Maybe it would be better if McDonalds were not involved at the hospital. Maybe it would be better if more private citizens were prepared to open their wallets and even pay their taxes so there was enough money to run the hospital without the need of corporate involvement.

    Maybe …

  23. I have not contributed to the McDonalds in hospital debate.

    However it is simple. Either stop all fast food outlets in hospitals or let the best successful tenderer win the space.

    If that tenderer happens to be McDonalds so be it.

    If you go the ban the junk food route this means no hot chips no pies and many other taken for granted foods in many hospitals around the country.

    I am no fan of McDonalds but they have right to go for a tender as much as the next business.

  24. 728

    You miss out the halo effect in your theory there. Because McDonald`s is a chain, it is providing the halo effect to the chain and thus increasing its acceptability elsewhere. While a non-chain does not spread the effect elsewhere because it has nowhere else to spread it. Restaurants that are not fast food outlets also tend to have a wider healthier range.

  25. Tom

    That halo effect applies to all fast food. eg Hot Chips sold in a hospital must be ok to buy elsewhere.

    Do not confuse the brand with the product. Its either all fast food or none.

  26. Re Mcdonalds in hospital…

    2009 article
    http://www.news.com.au/national/mcdonalds-given-go-ahead-at-royal-childrens-hospital/story-e6frfkp9-1225756088761

    Says
    [To earn a place in the hospital, restaurant menus must feature:
    At least 50 per cent “green” food, such as lean meat, fish, chicken, fruit, vegetables and plain water.]

    and that
    [no restaurants were involved in developing the policy.]

    The second is a big tick from me – hopefully they were not involved in any part of forming the tender.

  27. lizzie on Jan 12, 2015 at 10:01 am

    Thanks Lizzie,

    Finally absolute proof that woman are just Jezebels.
    They obviously serve no positive purpose in society except carrying the next generation.

    How could we have ever thought they were equal to men?

  28. [You probably don’t know me, but like you I am one of those .01%ers, a proud and unapologetic capitalist… I founded aQuantive, an Internet advertising company that was sold to Microsoft in 2007 for $6.4 billion. In cash. My friends and I own a bank…

    But let’s speak frankly to each other. I’m not the smartest guy you’ve ever met, or the hardest-working. I was a mediocre student. I’m not technical at all—I can’t write a word of code. What sets me apart, I think, is a tolerance for risk and an intuition about what will happen in the future. Seeing where things are headed is the essence of entrepreneurship. And what do I see in our future now?

    I see pitchforks.]

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html#.VLMvTfmUdQJ

  29. BW

    Joseph Katich probably hailed from the Croatian Peasant Party which was railing against the dictatorship of the kingdom of Yugoslavia at the time.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_Peasant_Party
    Their fortunes have rollercoastered, still around today and have a seat in the EU.

    I have been told these leftist Balkan immigrants were prominent the history of workers rights in Australia.

  30. it is quite obviously not the case that food choices are influenced by “perceptions”

    Why are food products advertised if perceptions play no role in consumption behaviour?

  31. LU
    Pitchforks?
    [Fidel Castro’s brother spies a rich lady who’s crying, Over luxury’s disappointment, So he walks over and he’s trying, To sympathize with her but thinks that he should warn her, That the Third World is just around the corner…..revolution is just a Tshirt away]
    One of his best.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjLXyqD3lvI

  32. Not a big fan of Macca’s, but I imagine to many it is a form of comfort food, which is not a bad thing in hospital. I would be more worried about schools than hospitals.

    There probably isn’t a disconnect between housing finance dropping in Nov and there being plenty of trade work around now. It’s not like you spend it all instantly.

  33. Q
    [There probably isn’t a disconnect between housing finance dropping in Nov and there being plenty of trade work around now. It’s not like you spend it all instantly.]

    Many said they had 12mths forward bookings from work given to them in December and early Jan.

  34. [737
    Nicholas

    it is quite obviously not the case that food choices are influenced by “perceptions”

    Why are food products advertised if perceptions play no role in consumption behaviour?]

    Firms compete to both enlarge the market and to increase their market shares in lots of ways. Advertising is one part of their marketing strategy.

    The relationship between what is made and what is consumed is interactive. The process has to commence with the preferences that consumers have…which will lead to product choice and design…and then to technological selections (how best to make products safely and economically)…and then to their marketing, including packaging, pricing, positioning, in- and out- of store promotion, brand advertising, store locations…and then consumer preferences change, so the whole thing has to be done again…and again…

    One thing is very obvious. Anyone that tries to make and market products that consumers do not want will very quickly fail. This is particularly true of food products. Understanding “what consumers want” is essential. Of course, consumers are inherently conservative when it comes to their food choices. They will not change their diets very easily and it is in fact extremely difficult to achieve mass adoption of a new food.

    This makes diet activism a very frustrating pursuit.

    Really, if consumers were inherently novelty-seekers with respect to their food choices, firms would be supplying novelty.

  35. Australia slips to 44th on internet speeds.

    In the near future, the LNP government of 2013-16 will be seen as the greatest bunch of worthless bumbling incompetents that ever disgraced the government benches.

    Slip sliding away – all our competitors getting ahead.

    And why? Ill tell you why: because NBN fibre to the premises didnt involve making some of their personal big business mates rich. The LNP doesnt lift a finger if a policy merely hs public or small business benefit. Its needs to pay off mates, or they wont bother.

    They are a disgrace.

    [Australia’s internet only ranks 44th in the world, behind other Asia Pacific countries like New Zealand, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore.]

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/report-australias-internet-speed-is-only-ranked-44th-in-the-world-2015-1

  36. zoomster@726: there is still a pretty strong G&S society down here in Hobart which, most years, does regular performances of Trial By Jury in the Penitentiary Chapel building during the height of the summer tourist season.

    Both in Hobart and in other Australian cities where I go regularly, I still notice the occasional sign advertising a school performance of a G&S show: usually Pinafore or Pirates. But, in support of your view, I do feel that the trend in recent years has been away from G&S and towards Broadway musicals.
    I understand from friends who are teachers that this is because schools have been able to get a better deal on the cost of staging the Broadway musicals vis-a-vis G&S (which has been out of copyright for a few decades).

    Also, I would think that G&S must look pretty staid and pedestrian to modern schoolkids brought up in an era of Australian Idol, Glee, X Factor, etc.

  37. I particularly like this passage, on how to reduce the size of government (and the welfare bill…)

    [Republicans and Democrats in Congress can’t shrink government with wishful thinking. The only way to slash government for real is to go back to basic economic principles: You have to reduce the demand for government. If people are getting $15 an hour or more, they don’t need food stamps. They don’t need rent assistance. They don’t need you and me to pay for their medical care. If the consumer middle class is back, buying and shopping, then it stands to reason you won’t need as large a welfare state. And at the same time, revenues from payroll and sales taxes would rise, reducing the deficit.]

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014_Page3.html#ixzz3OZZu9wwt

  38. [It’s a great article. Common sense, of course!]

    As I enjoy pointing out to my Tory mates, Bismark brought in the world’s first comprehensive state welfare system. Otto was not known to be a lefty.

  39. [“Why are food products advertised if perceptions play no role in consumption behaviour?”]

    I suppose it must be the same reason the tobacco companies are keen to advertise their products wherever/whenever they can even though they claim it was not to encourage young people to take up smoking.

  40. Henry from last night:

    Can’t see Howard, Downer et al apologising for anything fredex.
    They’ll just use the “based on the information we had at the time” excuse. Hicks seemingly lives near me in the inner west in Sydney, have seen him around the shops a few times. He tends to give furtive glances when he thinks people are looking at him. Understandable I suppose.

    He kept getting the feeling that he was being watched. Little did he know it was actually Henry observing him.

  41. Meher Baba re G and S
    _______________________
    I read recently that Cole Porter ,who was a G and S devotee at college in the USA,loved the”list: songs like that in The Mikado of the Lord High Executioner, and that some of his later “list songs “like..”You’re the Tops” and”Who wants’ to be a Millionaire”… were the result

    Last year in Chicago we went to see a great production by a Uni group of Pinafore…musicals of all kinds are the supreme US art form and they do them better than anyone in mho

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