Morgan SMS poll: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria

A sharp movement to the Coalition in the latest Victorian election SMS poll from Roy Morgan, bringing it into line with the recent Galaxy result.

Another Morgan SMS poll, a very current one conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1173. While the level of support recorded for the Greens might cause one to harbour doubts about this series, the movements recorded in this poll are interesting: the Coalition is up no less than 4.5% on the last poll to 39.5%, with both Labor and the Greens down two points to 33.5% and 17.5%. On every measure, this is the best result for the Coalition out of the five such polls conducted since last September. Even so, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, down from 55-45. Denis Napthine has gained the lead as preferred premier, now 51.5-48.5 ahead after Daniel Andrews led 52.5-47.5 last time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

120 comments on “Morgan SMS poll: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. I can’t see any compelling logic to Melbourne crossing the Yarra. That would leave Albert Park completely incoherent.

    In any event, the next redistribution doesn’t take effect until the 2022 election. So this is very premature speculation.

  2. Does anyone think people can be threatened into voting Liberal?

    That’s what Abbott seems to be doing – promising to rip $3bn out of Victoria if the punters do not do what they are told. Apart from inviting people to give the big finger, doesn’t it validate Labor’s advertisements of Napthine and Abbott morphing into each other?

    BTW, a possible sleeper I have not seen mentioned here for a while is Macedon. Looks OK on the numbers, but could very well be a nail-biter. The Lib is extremely well known in the area, was a mayor of Macedon Ranges and then a member of the upper house, from which she resigned to contest McEwen. She came within 313 votes of defeating Rob Mitchell last year.

  3. David, I guess the argument for Melbourne to cross the Yarra would be that Southbank residents have more in common with CBD and Docklands residents than they do with people in South Melbourne and Albert Park, which are bayside suburbs. One might also make the argument that CBD residents have more in common with Southbank residents than they do with people in Kensington and North Carlton (currently part of melbourne).

  4. 102 – I live there and have been thinking the same. Petrovich seems to have a lot of funding so I have wondered if the Libs think it is in with a chance

  5. David

    Its been a long while but previously we have had seats which cross the Yarra.

    I believe at state level that Ivanhoe did in the 1980s and Hawthorn back in the 1950s did when it included a large part of Richmond.

    At federal level the old seat of Diamond Creek might have crossed the Yarra and the seat which usually covers the Yarra Valley cross it.

  6. Macedon is a seat that the Liberals would fancy their chances in but with the inclusion of ALP friendly Daylesford I think it will be an ALP hold but could be pretty close.

  7. Docklands, Melbourne CBD, East Melbourne, North Melbourne Parkville & Carlton + Southbank, St Kilda Road, Port Melbourne & South Melbourne

    This could work as a seat

    A new seat based on St Kilda which could include Albert Park, Middle Park, Elwood, Elsternwick

    Fitzroy could be added to Brunswick

    Richmond after losing Fitzroy and maybe Collinwood west of Hoddle Street could add Hawthorn

  8. Julie Bishop is supposed to be in Melbourne on Friday, and it will be interesting to see where she decides to go.

    Some say that a negative sophomore surge is discernible in the sandbelt seats. So the sitting Libs there might get little more than a thumbs-up from the front of a speeding Vantage V12.

    If she goes to Macedon, the Libs probably think the seat is just about in the bag – a poor consolation for loss of government after a single term when in control of both Houses – but a tiny consolation nonetheless.

  9. Apparently Abbott has written an open letter to Victorians pushing the East-West toll road. It has, or will shortly be, published on-line by The Australian (of course).

  10. Nick of Melbourne@100

    To those wondering about where the early vote numbers come from. They are updated daily around 9-10am on this handy dandy VEC spreadsheet which plots them against 2010 early vote numbers. We’re well on track to have over 1 million people vote before Saturday (there are 3.8 million enrolled electors)

    The percentage increase for each given day is dropping but even if every day to come only matched the same day last time the total would still hit about 1 million. Looking at EVs being something like 35% (+/- 5) of all primary votes.

  11. 101

    The logic of having Melbourne cross the Yarra is a combination of the community of interest grounds outlined in 103 and the level of electorate growth in the CBD and surrounds, including Southbank, requiring more representation. That ether requires dragging existing seats further in, causing massive change to many seats, or the addition of a new seat.

    It would not leave Albert Park incoherent. Port Melbourne, Albert Park, Middle Park, large parts of St Kilda and Elwood would be in Albert Park. A coherent coastal seat.

    It is never too early to speculate.

  12. Stanley Baldwin @102

    Does anyone think people can be threatened into voting Liberal?

    That’s what Abbott seems to be doing – promising to rip $3bn out of Victoria if the punters do not do what they are told. Apart from inviting people to give the big finger, doesn’t it validate Labor’s advertisements of Napthine and Abbott morphing into each other?

    Gee, nevermind hospitals and ambulances, schools and TAFE, level crossings and public transportation, and the environment. If we don’t vote Libs, we lose out on potentially billions on the road funding!

    It’s like as if voters will think about 1 issue and only 1 issue.

    Of course, this will bite Abbott back regardless. The state getting knocked back for infrastructure funding won’t look good in the federal scheme of things.

  13. 105

    I think you are confusing Yarra, the former Commonwealth electorate which crossed its namesake, with Hawthorn. Commonwealth electorates have been known to cross the Yarra. Melbourne Ports has previously included Willamstown. I do knot know about Ivanhoe in the 1980s, although I would doubt it. AS far as I know, no state district in the Melbourne built up area (downstream of Warrandyte) has ever crossed the Yarra.

  14. Tom @ 113

    In Walter Jona’s wikipedia entry, it mentions that Hawthorn included parts of Richmond when he first contested the seat in 1964.

  15. 107

    You have missed the point of Melbourne crossing the Yarra. Its population and thus enrolment, is growing above the state average and so is that of Albert Park. The Melbourne you propose would be closer to 2 redistribution quotas than one. You essentially propose putting the whole of the existing Melbourne, with the exception of Kensington, in the new river-crossing Melbourne. That will not work.

    Also Fitzroy is not in Melbourne, it is in Richmond (apart from a small part of North Richmond, which is in Brunswick).

    A river-crossing Melbourne Would include Docklands, the CBD, East Melbourne and maybe West Melbourne from the existing Melbourne. It would include only Southbank, Docklands (which crosses the Yarra), South Wharf, South Melbourne and maybe the part of Melbourne (3004) that goes down St Kilda Rd.

    Melbourne would then be in Southern Metro Region.

    Carlton, North Melbourne, Parkville, Kensington and possibly Newmarket and Flemmington would go into either a recreated North Melbourne or Carlton district or a new district of Parkville or Royal Park.

  16. Was just listening to gossip about Country Alliance in Western Vic.

    They are the only minor party with a lower house candidate in all electorates in Western Victoria.
    They only got a small vote in the region at the last federal election, but they believe state and federal elections are different for them.
    They got 2.68% in 2010 (7 of 11 lower house candidates) and 0.89% in 2006
    There primary needs to exceed DLP + PeoplePower to get a start, next challenge is to get above FF.
    They are preferenced by both LNP and ALP ahead of GRN.

  17. Tom

    Yes the Federal seat of Yarra did cross the Yarra and so did the state seat of Hawthorn, which included Burnley and Richmond South
    (source: State Library of Victoria)

    Hopefully I will be able to locate it, if so I will link it.

    Source for the comment on Ivanhoe was based on one of the profiles for this election in which it stated that the seat had crossed the Yarra.

  18. Tom

    Except Fitzroy generally has more in common with Brunswick than it does Richmond, politically it would also benefit the Greens as a Fitzroy added to Brunswick would pretty much make it a Green seat, whilst the Greens face tougher competition in Richmond the suburb as it contains a higher Liberal vote.

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