Another Morgan SMS poll, a very current one conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1173. While the level of support recorded for the Greens might cause one to harbour doubts about this series, the movements recorded in this poll are interesting: the Coalition is up no less than 4.5% on the last poll to 39.5%, with both Labor and the Greens down two points to 33.5% and 17.5%. On every measure, this is the best result for the Coalition out of the five such polls conducted since last September. Even so, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, down from 55-45. Denis Napthine has gained the lead as preferred premier, now 51.5-48.5 ahead after Daniel Andrews led 52.5-47.5 last time.
Wow a new poll every day. Each with a MOE around 3%. That should offer something for everyone.
The “sharp movement” probably only corrects Morgan’s previous, highly dubious, poll result.
His blatant boosting of the East-West toll road as part of his poll report reveals his prejudices, and is ethically very questionable.
Turns out Morgan won’t be doing daily polling after all. They will publish one last result on Friday.
Morgan was the only pollster to nominate Steve Bracks’s upset win over Jeff Kennett.
It’s the last few days – even election day itself – that count.
4
Although that has declined a bit with early voting taking off in a big way.
Must be the Porn Scandal boosting the LNP.
Labor direct mail from Northcote:
A quick google search can’t find anything linking David Redfearn to the ALP, as sus as that DM looks. He appears to have strong links to the environmental movement, though…
Assuming it is from the ALP, doesn’t not authorising it leave them open to the wrath of the Electoral Act?
No, there’s an authorisation notice at the bottom.
Labor also seems quite happy to let the Liberals immerse themselves in chaos without comment over the former Thomastown candidate and his fundraiser… presumably if they say anything other than “that’s a matter for them” will result in them being attacked by someone. I rather doubt anyone outside Liberal HQ cares that much. It’s also a rather nasty rebuke by the Liberals of a successful actress who has managed to move beyond the sex industry.
That is some tiny, tiny writing
Ooo, good to see Labor getting desperate in Northcote.
Could this be what Nate Silver was calling “herding”?
I don’t see why they would be. I don’t know anyone who thinks the Greens are going to win Northcote. They just happen to have left themselves wide open to legitimate criticism through their outrageous hypocrisy in this matter.
Digging a little deeper, his facebook page (one for likes, not a personal account) is oddly out of date listing him as a former Labor Councillor of the City of Northcote, which was abolished in ’94. What a bizzare piece of campaign material.
[Digging a little deeper, his facebook page (one for likes, not a personal account) is oddly out of date listing him as a former Labor Councillor of the City of Northcote, which was abolished in ’94.]
So what?
14
Maybe the open HTVC registration by the Liberals has effected ALP thinking.
Redfearn sounds like the ploy in a pretty obvious ALP tactic…must be worried about Northcote though
Students of hypocrisy might see that in Western Victoria the ALP seems to Prefer the DLP to the Greens…and that might follow as some in the ALP are really DLPers anyway
While ‘barrage’ might be going to far, there has been a steady stream of ALP anti-Greens material delivered over the last two weeks. Although it seems very hard to see it falling, clearly Richardson is a little twitchy.
Rocket Rocket@13
I had a look for evidence of herding in the 10 polls prior to this one and the evidence was inconclusive. They’re more squashed together than the random average but not so much as to me really suspicious.
Besides my experience is that when Morgan gets a rogue Gary Morgan doesn’t herd it. He releases it and writes an essay explaining why it is accurate!
“to me really suspicious” should be “to be really suspicious”
If there has really a swing back to LNP, Newspoll 2 should confirm it tonight.
Most pollsters have had it consistently around 53, notable exceptions being Morgan SMS and IPSOS. If this swing isnt confirmed i think there must now be serious questions asked about SMS polling methods. Even if they balance respondents to match societies demographics, a 60 year old male that responds to SMS polls is NOT going to be typical of people that age. It would be interesting to know how many texts they had to send out to get their respondents, and if that varied significantly from their previous SMS poll. Or if something else relating to their methods has changed.
If there has been a swing back, perhaps its due to to people just starting to tune in, because i dont see anything that could justify such a swing from people that have been paying attention.
The important thing to do is not to panic, its not 2010, and no promises on election eve please.
It is good to have a bit of drama to wake people up though, i thought we where all going to sleep through this election.
I await to be proved wrong, but I’d doubt we’re going to see a Newspoll tonight. I don’t believe anyone from The Australian has said as much, and their usual form is to publish a result the night before the election.
[“to me really suspicious” should be “to be really suspicious”]
The sentence is well within MoE.
25
The margin of error for spelling does not include the first or last letter or letters not meant to be in the word. It is only about mixed up middle letters.
WB, duoh, i thought there was to be a newspoll tonight, looking back i misread “no, later” as being “no later”.
If the Morgan polls use the same methodology I would just average the the last 2 as 53.5 to 46.5. There are rarely significant moves in State elector sentiment in the couple of weeks before election day. If there were these would be exposed by the differences between pre-polls and polling day results but these rarely seem to differ much.
William,
I merely meant I thought it was odd when he isn’t an active politician/business/interest group/whatever/community for which FB pages are usually created. No, it’s not an interesting or particularly relevant point, granted. Was merely wondering who the character on the DM was.
On the broader point, I think resources spent on that could have been used far more effectively elsewhere as the Greens aren’t a serious threat in Northcote and it does come across as rather dishonest-by-omission and self-indulgent
Tonight I was ReachTel robo-polled for the second time this campaign. The questions were the same as those a few weeks ago. I never saw the results of the last one, but maybe I missed them.
triton@30
I never get polled. Mind you, I don’t have a landline and rarely answer my mobile to an unknown number – that’s what voice mail is for.
19 – Students of hypocrisy might see that in Western Victoria, Eastern Victoria, Northern Victoria and South-East Metropolitan the Greens seems to Prefer the PUP to the Labor…and that might follow as some in the Greens are really PUPers anyway, supporting their boss who voted out the mining tax and carbon pricing.
31 – I was polled in late 1994 and among other things asked what the Liberals should do to return to Government. I said the number one priority should be to get rid of Alexander Downer as leader.
Sorry – I couldn’t help myself, and yes I’ve regretted saying that ever since!
http://www.themandarin.com.au/11737-victorian-auditor-general-playing-politics/
[Vic Auditor-General ‘breached role’ in lobbying for powers
by David Donaldson
24.11.2014
EXCLUSIVE: Did Victoria’s Auditor-General act inappropriately by engaging in politics before an election? Some also doubt whether the expanded powers he is arguing for are needed.]
http://www.mmg.com.au/local-news/benalla/former-liberal-premier-endorses-nationals-candidate-in-three-cornered-contest-1.84039
[Former Liberal Premier endorses Nationals candidate in three-cornered contest
Former Premier and Liberal leader Ted Baillieu gave Nationals candidate for Euroa Steph Ryan a ringing endorsement this week.
LIBBY PRICE November 19, 2014 6:10am
In a move only likely to increase Coalition tensions in the final fortnight of the state election campaign, former Liberal Premier Ted Baillieu publicly announced his support for the Nationals candidate for the state seat of Euroa Steph Ryan.]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/11/24/are-the-liberals-brownwashing-the-victorian-election/ paywalled
[Are the Liberals ‘brownwashing’ the Victorian election?
Nov 24, 2014 1:12PM
There is an unusually high number of Liberal candidates from migrant or ethnic backgrounds in this year’s state election. But almost all of them are in unwinnable seats, writes Crikey’s Victorian election correspondent Dan Moss.
In the Collins Street HQ of the Liberal Party, a plan was hatched to fortify upper house votes for the party. Polling this year has consistently shown that the Liberals’ reign over Spring Street was facing doom; this unorthodox move could save the furniture.
State director Damien Mantach revealed a scrap of that plan to The Sunday Age’s Farrah Tomazin, who wrote: “For the past decade, the party has also made a concerted effort to broaden its membership and pool of candidates ’by strengthening grassroots engagement into a number of multicultural communities’.”
From what Crikey can see, the multicultural push has amounted to running candidates of Indian, Vietnamese, Greek and Italian descent in unwinnable seats, mostly in the north, west and outer south-east of Melbourne in the hopes of encouraging migrant communities to vote Liberal — most especially in the crucial upper house. Political observers are calling it “brownwashing” and say the lower house strategy is used to funnel votes from migrant communities to upper house tickets.]
Rocket Rocket@33
It was a no-win situation.
If you said you thought Downer was doing a good job they probably would have tried to sell you a time-share holiday house.
VENOM updated with the latest Morgan poll. Coalition now average 38 seats, Labor (maybe Labor plus Greens) 50 seats, in from 36-52.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/21/1346648/-Next-Weekend-s-Victorian-State-Election-Modeled-with-Venom
wtr – hate to admit it but I also said they had to move on the republic issue. Which of course they very cleverly did when in office.
Sophie Panopoulos (Mirabella) and Kerrie Jones “If you want to vote for a President, vote no in the republic referendum” – so now, when ARE we going to get that promised vote for a president?
Nappy time about take fire from another front…
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/denis-napthine-under-fire-from-small-business-owners-20141124-11swyz.html
Alizarin – thanks for the update – love that “Manhattan” skyline!
As this poll was taken before Abbott made “No cuts to the ABC” as promised (!) it will be very interesting to see the ones on Friday (I predict a Morgan, a Reachtel, a Galaxy and a “late” Newspoll) – because they will be sampled over the next few days.
If Napthine rang Abbott tonight can you imagine what he would say? Well one thing for sure, Abbott will not be coming back to Victoia this election campaign.
Ipsos poll out late tonight? Or in tomorrow’s Age? But again it will not have today’s news factored in (which does cross federal-state issues)
Rocket Rocket@37
Sheesh, did you also suggest that getting tough on boat people was morally wrong but probably a vote winner?
wtr – No. That is my full and frank confession. After 20 years I have finally got it off my chest. Not much really, just feeling responsible for John Howard, 11 years of Coalition Government and a failed Republic Convention & Referendum!
RR – hope that was cathartic, at least that puts you in the clear for the GFC, Rudd/Gillard wars, cancelling of Arrested Development and the election of Tony Abbott.
Herald-Sun in full panic mode, especially after Abbott’s ABC lie was exposed today. Lead story is “East West turnaround to cost $1.1 Billion – VICTORIANS face a $1.1. billion compensation payout to the consortium building East West Link if Labor abandons the project.”
Sure to be the cover story tomorrow – they were obviously holding this one back to be used should there be any disastrous Colaition story surface in the last week.
Abbott’s lie about ABC cuts exposed for all to see – Rupert says “Roll the Presses on East West Link”
In fact – amazingly – the ABC cuts do not feature ANYWHERE on the main webpage of the Herald-Sun.
Not that they are biased or anything, I mean it’s not much of a story and not getting much coverage on TV or radio or in other papers!
Hey William did that election material @ 7 have party authorisation? It looks like it may be a breach of electoral law.
Never mind just read below. Serves me right for not looking :).
Rocket Rocket @ 45
In 1988, the NSW Libs promised to not build the Harbour Tunnel. After the election, it was announced that the compensation would be too high and the tunnel went ahead anyway. If Labor win the election (especially if they have a comfortable margin – high single or double digit) it will be the same story. It was their policy in government to build a tunnel. The only reason they have not supported it this time is 1. Being generally negative. 2: They are spooked by the Greens in the inner city. If the Greens win inner city seats AND Labor have a comfortable majority, even more likely east-west link will go ahead.
blackburnpseph
I am surprised that people have forgotten that the East-West Link was in the ALP’s 2010 Victorian Transport plan.
48
The ALP are locked into cancelling the link. If they do not, they could well be a one term government and/or the Greens getting about 20% because of the broken promise. They have said, including before the contracts were signed, they would not honour grubby side deals and this brings the option of legislating the compensation away. The voters do not want the costs of a big road project. Voters who are not died in the wool rightists are increasing aware that trying to build roads to eliminate congestion is expensive and largely futile.
48 & 49
It was Westlink, essentially the western section of the current proposal, that was ALP policy at the last election. A road mainly for western suburbs traffic heading to the city. The North East Link, through the Yarra Flats and a tunnel between the Eastern Freeway and the Greensborough Highway/Northern Ring Road, was also ALP policy. Westlink has been dumped as ALP policy, and the North East Link is nowhere to be seen either.