Bit slow on the uptake with this one, but today’s Daily Telegraph brought us the latest in Galaxy’s recent bonanza of state polling, and it’s a good one for the Baird government: the Coalition holds a 56-44 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The preferred premier rating suggests a lot of people have made up their minds up since the last poll was conducted in August, Mike Baird’s lead over John Robertson shifting from 43-11 to 49-18. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 938.
UPDATE (Fairfax/Ipsos): The Sydney Morning Herald has published results from its first New South Wales state Ipsos poll, although it hasn’t given much play to the voting intention numbers, revealing only the two-party preferred results. Consistent with its other polling, these show a huge gap according to the two preference allocation methods. On previous election preferences, the Coalition has a big lead of 54-46. But when minor party and independent voters were asked how they would direct their preferences, this shrank to 51-49.
The poll also has Mike Baird with a formidable approval rating of 60%, versus 18% disapproval. This puts him well clear of John Robertson at 35% and 37%, over whom he also has a 57-22 lead as preferred premier. A question on preferred Labor leader has John Robertson with only a narrow lead over Jodi McKay, who is presumably set to return to parliament in the seat of Strathfield, of 23% to 21%. Further back in the field are Luke Foley and Michael Daley, at 7% and 6% respectively.
FURTHER UPDATE: The indefatigable Leroy Lynch relates this graphic featuring the primary vote numbers courtesy of the Financial Review.