Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46

Yet another Galaxy state poll, this one confirming that the Baird government in New South Wales is headed for an easy victory, even if it doesn’t match its 2011 landslide.

Bit slow on the uptake with this one, but today’s Daily Telegraph brought us the latest in Galaxy’s recent bonanza of state polling, and it’s a good one for the Baird government: the Coalition holds a 56-44 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The preferred premier rating suggests a lot of people have made up their minds up since the last poll was conducted in August, Mike Baird’s lead over John Robertson shifting from 43-11 to 49-18. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 938.

UPDATE (Fairfax/Ipsos): The Sydney Morning Herald has published results from its first New South Wales state Ipsos poll, although it hasn’t given much play to the voting intention numbers, revealing only the two-party preferred results. Consistent with its other polling, these show a huge gap according to the two preference allocation methods. On previous election preferences, the Coalition has a big lead of 54-46. But when minor party and independent voters were asked how they would direct their preferences, this shrank to 51-49.

The poll also has Mike Baird with a formidable approval rating of 60%, versus 18% disapproval. This puts him well clear of John Robertson at 35% and 37%, over whom he also has a 57-22 lead as preferred premier. A question on preferred Labor leader has John Robertson with only a narrow lead over Jodi McKay, who is presumably set to return to parliament in the seat of Strathfield, of 23% to 21%. Further back in the field are Luke Foley and Michael Daley, at 7% and 6% respectively.

FURTHER UPDATE: The indefatigable Leroy Lynch relates this graphic featuring the primary vote numbers courtesy of the Financial Review.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

53 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46”

  1. Arrnea Stormbringer@47

    @ Kevin Bonham, 46

    Yes, but my point is this:

    If 40% of Others voters and 80% of Greens voters say their preferences will go to ALP and of those, only 75% end up not exhausting their vote on election day, wouldn’t that still keep the proportion of votes for Others/Greens that make it to either major party 40% and 80% Labor, thus not affecting the 2PP?

    No. It is not only the proportional flow of Others/Greens votes that affects the 2PP but also how many Others/Greens votes flow at all. To illustrate I will give some more extreme examples.

    Case 1. The primaries are 46-34-11-9 as per the Galaxy, the preferences are 80 from the Greens, 40 from Others, with no exhaust. The Coalition has 46+.2*11+.6*9=53.6. Labor has 34+.8*11+.4*9=46.4. The 2PP is 53.6% to Coalition.

    Case 2. Everything is the same as the above except that actually half the Greens and half the Others voters exhaust their ballots. Those that do not exhaust go as above. Now the Coalition has 46+.2*.5*11+.6*.5*9=49.8. Labor has 34+.8*.5*11+.4*.5*9=40.2. The other 10% has exhausted. Now the Coalition’s 2PP is 49.8/90=55.3%

    Case 3. Everything is the same as the above except that actually all the Greens and Others voters exhaust their votes. The Coalition has 46 and Labor has 34 from the primaries, and 20% has exhausted. The Coalition’s 2PP is 46/80=57.5%.

    The significance of an increased percentage of exhaust is that the importance of a primary vote lead to the 2PP becomes proportionally greater.

  2. And just to back up my claim of the immorality of conservatives, according to the Auditor General, this Government has maintained an average of 10% vacancy rate of child protection officers.Easy to ‘balance’ the books when you sell off assets and don’t employ useless people like these

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