Bit slow on the uptake with this one, but today’s Daily Telegraph brought us the latest in Galaxy’s recent bonanza of state polling, and it’s a good one for the Baird government: the Coalition holds a 56-44 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The preferred premier rating suggests a lot of people have made up their minds up since the last poll was conducted in August, Mike Baird’s lead over John Robertson shifting from 43-11 to 49-18. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 938.
UPDATE (Fairfax/Ipsos): The Sydney Morning Herald has published results from its first New South Wales state Ipsos poll, although it hasn’t given much play to the voting intention numbers, revealing only the two-party preferred results. Consistent with its other polling, these show a huge gap according to the two preference allocation methods. On previous election preferences, the Coalition has a big lead of 54-46. But when minor party and independent voters were asked how they would direct their preferences, this shrank to 51-49.
The poll also has Mike Baird with a formidable approval rating of 60%, versus 18% disapproval. This puts him well clear of John Robertson at 35% and 37%, over whom he also has a 57-22 lead as preferred premier. A question on preferred Labor leader has John Robertson with only a narrow lead over Jodi McKay, who is presumably set to return to parliament in the seat of Strathfield, of 23% to 21%. Further back in the field are Luke Foley and Michael Daley, at 7% and 6% respectively.
FURTHER UPDATE: The indefatigable Leroy Lynch relates this graphic featuring the primary vote numbers courtesy of the Financial Review.
What is the likelihood that John Robertson will be dumped as ALP leader before the election? Is there a viable alternative?
I would say that would be a disappointing result for Labor.
On the other hand, people probably still remember that whilst it’s the Libs getting exposed by ICAC right now, Labor’s been just as bad, so it doesn’t really hurt the Liberals much.
John Robertson is making absolutely no impact. If the survey had asked people to name the NSW Opposition Leader, I wouldn’t have been surprised if a substantial proportion, maybe even 50%, didn’t know.
The Baird Government, by and large, has been moderate and competent, as was the O’Farrel Government be before it. Even so, with the loss of a Premier and 9 MP’s to an ICAC investigation, the NSW voters are remarkably forgiving. To lose a few MPs may be unfortunate, but to lose a Premier? Also, it appears that the Abbott Government’s unpopularity has not rubbed off on Baird.
Another factor is a friendly media environment. Had the Daily Telegraph chosen to run a 3 year campaign to get rid of this NSW Government, as it did for the previous one, the figures might have been less favourable for Baird.
Dan “Andrew Daniels” Andrews doesn’t seem to have suffered from a non-existent media profile for the last two years, but I guess the atmosphere in Victoria is rather different.
I will comment after shellbell and moderate. Anticipation
Baird looks the best of an ordinary bunch of leaders and opposition leaders country-wide. I may migrate two hours south.
Michael Daley is the most likely alternative to Robertson.
But a change of leadership would now would be stupid. Why destroy two leaders? Look what happened in WA in last year; a last minute change there didn’t prevent a thrashing. (Losing Eric Ripper’s former seat of Belmont just added an exclamation mark to the absurdity.)
Labor would have been much better pff if they had lost in 2007. What happened in their last term? Three different Premiers, not much good policy.
Even 2019 looks a bridge too far.
Even with Robbo Labor will still get a minimum of 10 seats on the 2011 result or a third of parly. The 10-15 from there will need real and genuine party reform which on current indicators is unlikely.
Robertson’s job is to win 10-15 seats, giving Labor a reasonable shot in 2019. Don’t forget Labor has won three seats from the Libs in by-elections under his leadership (including Miranda in Scott Morrison’s seat with a 23% swing), and won 2 more seats on the Blue Mountains council (from independent and green), and the Newcastle Lord Mayoralty (from Lib leaning independent).
I think the Labor party will really be hoping Steve Whan returns to the lower house by winning Monaro: a non Sydney labor leader with intellect and appeal. He would be great as leader and could win in 2019.
That makes it a large discrepancy between state and federal voting intention in NSW.
IMO it puts a lot of internal pressure on Abbott.
This election is very much a reverse of the 2007 NSW election. A highly flawed Government with a little-known or understood premier is going to get in comfortably because the opposition are, in the minds of many of the public, too toxic to even be considered. NSW needs to be governed by a coalition including Greens and country independents to drive the serious and long-term reforms in transport, energy, education and integrity that the State desperately requires.
Has Baird actually done anything? Talk about the drovers dog.
ESJ lives ! Troll on the knoll
Mike , he guttoed out of contesting the 2 by elections, won’t release policies til after the election , supports CSG. Just another Liberal liar. Peter Primrose describes the libs financial position as ‘smoke and mirrors, without the mirrors’
I hope Robertson is replaced with someone who has a better set of policy advisers.
Lol, I’ve heard it all now – someone who “quotes” peter primrose. Peter who ?
I seem to recall an SMH online poll back when Robertson became leader (2011?) – 90% being against him becoming leader.
Mind you, it was accompanied by an article of a rampaging Keating dishing him.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll NSW State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 54 ALP 46 #nswpol #auspol
10:56 PM – 23 Nov 2014]
I suspect its only going to get worse for Robertson, an Opposition leader for 4 years but no policy position that anyone can recall for any of the state’s main issues. In contrast, 2 new pieces of railway infrastructure, the West Connects, harbour crossings, new hospitals and the best financial rating in the country (up from #8 under ALP)is Baird’s legacy. I think Peter Primrose better keep contemplating life as an opposition back bench MLC…..
Ipsos-Fairfax is 54:46 from 44:36:11 primaries
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/alp-suffering-trust-deficit-despite-liberal-partys-icac-woes-20141123-11s6ss.html
[ALP suffering trust deficit despite Liberal party’s ICAC woes
November 24, 2014 – 12:59AM
Sean Nicholls
Sydney Morning Herald State Political Editor
One-third of NSW voters rank the Coalition highest on the issue of trustworthiness, a new poll shows, despite the Liberal party being dragged through weeks of corruption hearings earlier this year.
The Fairfax/Ipsos poll reveals that on the question of trustworthiness 33 per cent of voters rate the Coalition highest followed by the Greens at 19 per cent and Labor at 17 per cent.
The Palmer United Party, which is not registered to contest the next NSW election but is likely to back independents, rated only 2 per cent.
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Nine per cent nominated other parties, 8 per cent named none of the parties as the most trustworthy and 13 per cent were undecided.
In a blow for the ALP, fewer than half of its supporters, or only 44 per cent, nominated the party as the most trustworthy.
The poll of 1000 NSW voters was taken between Thursday and Saturday last week.]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-mike-bairds-electricity-sale-will-see-prices-rise-voters-fear-20141123-11s5nd.html
preferred Premier stats
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labors-jodi-mckay-closes-in-on-john-robertson-as-preferred-leader-20141123-11s8hz.html
Labor’s Jodi McKay closes in on John Robertson as preferred leader
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/barry-ofarrells-downfall-pays-dividends-for-the-coalition-20141123-11s80m.html
Mod, what a disceptive little list you have cobbled together. Open 2 ? hospitals, but close how many ? WestConnex is looking pretty sick at the moment . Build a railway tunnel that our normal trains won’t fit in , no probs just get your mates to run it with their own toys. Close down 82 Womens and Homeless youth refuges in NSW. Sell off 2 ports , one of which may at a loss to the balance sheet, and last the poles and wires sell off, inaccurate figures and scenarios are being thrown around like confetti by Baird and whoever the Treasurer is this week. ICAC report on your boys in January
Ok outside left (surely not a sign of your political leanings!) have it your way. I’ll happily take the published opinion polls (and the international ratings agencies) as a sign of Baird’s popularity. Not sure what comfort you can have for your man but point me in the direction of the John Robertson appreciation society and I am happy to take a look.
Let me know if you’d like to place a wager -I’ll even give you 10 seats start!!!
So, the bestest gov in Oz, coolest, and most honest Premier [lol]record majority and you think that you will win by 10 ? Or is that as in 10 seats that Labor will win back ? We just took 2 back . ABC cuts may come into play , plus a long hot summer to show up the Neanderthals on your side
Fahey and Greiner had similar ratings very early in their term but not after seven months. Is it just a long honeymoon or is this guy going to be the most popular Liberal premier of a state in decades?
Robertson is pretty anonymous as leader, but there is no chance of a leadership change pre-election. Who would want to take over so they could lead the party to a certain defeat?
Part of the tragedy (for Labor) of the last term is that they burnt through 2 leaders (Rees and Keneally) who both had the potential to be good long-term Labor leaders IMO. More great legacy of Obeid, Tripodi and Co.
Well done outside left you “took back” Charlestown and Newcastle – and in the later case with a massive 36pc of the primary vote.
When you are in the race in seats like Penrith, Drummoyne, Kiama, Holsworthy and Coogee I’ll let you know. If you are wanting to be an ALP Ministerial staffer you have a bit of a wait I’m afraid…..
The bookies have us favourite in Kiama. What about all those seats you hold on the Central Coast ? Toast?
You won’t go within 8pc in Kiama, particularly with optional preferential splitting your vote. You win Swansea Wyong and probably The Entrance. Wow what an achievement……just keep Robbo there and you could lose them again in 2019 and the Coalition might be back to 70 seats!!!
.. and Macquarie Fields which is notionally liberal
AFR IPSOS article, paywalled http://www.afr.com/p/national/nsw_premier_makes_headway_on_electricity_nUTcWKwNQaFFCE8WgoSizI
But the picture/table has its own URL, and has the full primaries
L/NP 44 ALP 36 Greens 11 PUP 2 Others 7
We know your ability with maths , gareth will struggle, even Hancock is getting a kicking in South Coast. Put a number on your wins on 28/3 , come on, make my day
I’ll take even money with you on Kiama. How’s that for a start….
I’ll give you 2/1 on in South Coast. Where do you want to go next. How about the former ALP heartlands of Penrith and Riverstone??
Leroy L
those primaries are interesting.
Does it make sense to go from those primaries to 54-46? Basically saying LNP get 1 PUP and ALL others and 2 of the Greens.
Oh and you won’t hold Miranda either…..
How does optional preferential voting affect the calculation of the 2PP in these polls? Does either pollster quoted in this thread use exhaustion data from the last election to dole out the green/indi/other preference flows? Or do they treat all non-major party votes as ending up with ALP/LNP?
I’m not sure why anybody cares about the preferred leader ratings.
They have literally have no correlation with who actually wins elections.
The best indicator is 2PP. On that score, it will be a solid win for the Coalition but a reasonable bounce back for the ALP from their previous disastrous results.
If that respondent-allocated figure in Fairfax/Ipsos is anything to shout about, this could actually be a pretty interesting election.
Arrnea Stormbringer@39
The thing to watch is the ICAC proceedings. If more comes out for the Coalition just before the election, I think it will really tighten things up.
docantk@37
For any reputable pollster that is paying attention it is the former. Only one I’ve recently suspected might be getting it wrong was the first Morgan SMS. About half of any minor party’s tally is going to the Recycle Bin. 54-46 to L-NP might still seem a shade generous off those primaries but that’s “overall preference flow” which is an allocation based on the combined flow of all non-majors in 2010. Not sure what method Galaxy use.
As for the respondent-allocated figure I would be extremely confident that even when the pollsters include an option that the voter would exhaust their vote, the number of voters who would say they would exhaust would be much less than the number that actually did on the day. Respondent-allocated should be treated with extra caution in the OPV states.
@ Kevin Bonham, 41
If a respondent-allocated result was overestimating the proportion of votes that would not exhaust before reaching the major parties, wouldn’t that cut both ways though, more or less cancelling out its impact on the 2PP?
Or are conservative votes more or less likely to reach the Coalition than left votes to reach Labor under OPV?
I don’t think the ICAC report in January 2015 will cause tightening since there would already be expectation that the 10 or so north of Sydney lib MLAs will be found to be corrupt.
There will be no relief for the MLAs in the High Court as the challenge to the developer legislation will most likely not be heard or at least determined until after the election.
And 3 of these are standing again. Shame,shame,shame
Ficarra (MLC) could also be the subject of an adverse finding.
I heard David Borger this am, former ALP member for Granville, rejoicing in his new role as head of Western Suburbs development body at receiving proceeds of electricity asset sales for western suburbs rail development.
Reminder of why Robertson has so little support because of what he did to Rees.
Arrnea Stormbringer@42
It cancels out if the preference leanings of the two sides are about the same. (Actually at the last election the batched preference flow favoured the Coalition).
But say that at some time the respondent allocated preferences are 40% Others to Labor and 80% Greens to Labor, of those who indicate a preference. If those indicating a preference are less likely to deliver it than they say, then the actual strength of that flow to Labor would not be as strong.
@ Kevin Bonham, 46
Yes, but my point is this:
If 40% of Others voters and 80% of Greens voters say their preferences will go to ALP and of those, only 75% end up not exhausting their vote on election day, wouldn’t that still keep the proportion of votes for Others/Greens that make it to either major party 40% and 80% Labor, thus not affecting the 2PP?
Or is there a tendency for conservatives to be more honest about whether their vote will exhaust or not?
Wow, Baird says elect me , or infrastructure [and my backers] get it. Time to sell your souls, libs. Standard price..30 pieces of silver
I have always struggled with the reality of arguing morality with Conservatives. 82 places of refuge for battered women or troubled youth ,closed or stripped; TAFE,educating our future ,our beautiful kids, raped ;CSG, fucking our water catchment, stiff, there’s bucks in it;most of my local liberal pollies are gay [ hello J,A and G] but are’against’ gay friendly policies;And here we are, rejoicing that the polls have these mfs winning
@ outside left, 49
I think there’s an appropriate quotation here.
“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” – John Kenneth Galbraith