The always reliable James J in comments relates that the Newspoll, to be published in tomorrow’s Australian, shows the Coalition back to its post-budget worst, with Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39% for Labor, 36% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. Whereas Newspoll’s two-party results have recently had a habit of coming in better for Labor than the primary votes would lead you to expect, this one sounds about right.
After a period where the two leaders have been roughly even, this poll gives Bill Shorten a 43-37 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. Abbott is on 36% approval and 55% disapproval, while Shorten is at 39% and 41%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1166.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly poll from Roy Morgan, which was also unpleasant for the government, with Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor up one to 38.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12%. Using preference flows from the 2013 election rather than respondent allocation, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3140.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research turns in another static result on voting intention, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens all stable on the primary vote (40%, 38% and 10%), and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48. The only move is that Palmer United is back down to 3% after two weeks at 4%.
Essential has shown good foresight in identifying free trade and China as the subject of its supplementary questions this week. Opinion on a free trade agreement is evenly divided at 34% approval and 35% disapproval, with 35% saying China will benefit more versus only 12% for Australia and 24% for both equally. Respondents are predictably more keen on “greater access to Chinese markets for Australian businesses” (61% support, 12% oppose) than “fewer restrictions on Chinese workers coming to Australia” (20% support, 57% oppose). When asked to rate likeliest beneficiaries of a deal, the Australian government, mining companies and business come on to with 52%, 48% and 44%, and the ever-embattled “working people” bottom on 25%. Beyond that, respondents were found to be highly cynical about the G20, with 62% rating it an “expensive talk fest” over 16% for the alternative option crediting it with “real outcomes for Australia and the global economy”.
Other questions tested respondents about the size of Australia’s refugee intake, with a general but not overwhelming tendency to rate it higher than it actually is. Opinions on the utility of the refugee program are evenly divided, except that only 20% agreed that “Australia’s overall population is too low and we need to increase the number of refugees to boost the numbers in our workforce”, with 62% disagreeing.
Still waiting on further polling in Vic. But the general trend away from the conservatives makes it difficult for Napthine when he needs to claw back from a 47/53 deficit.
Also, it means the Libs need to be out if force supporting the Federal case which is a millstone for the state case.
[it must be McMahon criticising Gough until he heard the news about Nixon being in China (having just criticised Gough).]
I’m sure you’re right.
Even though Obama is a lame duck Prez, he still carries authority in international fora, as was demonstrated over the weekend.
@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-2) ALP 39 (+3) GRN 11 (-2) #auspol
cud chewer @ 50, that’s a succinct little analysis which I think has some merit. Let’s keep isolating them.
From what I can see… The Australian cannot polish it. Headline “Support for ALP, Shorten soars”.
Gonna be some sore walls in Canberra tonight.
[7
Player One
I find it surprising that 36% still seem to support Abbott.
16
ShowsOn
Remember, this poll doesn’t fully factor in how big a farqtard Abbot was at the G20.]
With a bit of luck, the next round of polls will reveal just what the real level of rusted on base support is for the Lib brand.
Will it go below 30% ?
That will do me for my Xmas pressie.
🙂 🙂 🙂
Tweet from PVO
[How good is @TurnbullMalcolm! #QandA]
And response from Michael Pascoe
[@vanOnselenP @TurnbullMalcolm actually, the act is wearing a little thin. Only good compared with his peers. Says more about peers than Mal.
10:14pm – 17 Nov 14]
from the previous thread…
[1793
daretotread]
The daily transmission rate in the 22 days until 10-11 November was 0.8%. Allowing that projections are not very meaningful, if the growth rate does not change the number of cases will rise from 14383 on 11 November to 18134 by the end of December in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Though the scale of transmission is a lot lower than was forecast in August/September, and there has been a persistent decline in the rate of transmission in Liberia, there’s obviously a long way to go to suppress the outbreak.
55-45 2PP to Labor is a disastrous result for Abbott and his cheer squad in the Murdoch Circus.
APEC and the G20 have been and gone, and our bellicose bumpkin of a Prime Minister has staggered from one embarrassing gaffe to another, falling over his own ineptitude, and making himself, and by extension our nation, a laughing stock, an object of scorn and ridicule in international fora.
The opinion polling is now so dire, and the public’s confirmed attitude to our PM’s incompetence is now so entrenched that no amount of turd polishing from the Abbottistas within News Ltd and the squawking denizens of the talkback open sewer can reverse the terminal decline.
Abbott will remain as their leader, probably until the election, as the Government is now so delusional and dysfunctional that no real news from the world outside Credlin’s office is allowed to penetrate into the echo chamber in which they dwell.
Roll on 2016, and the end of this national farce.
And a few fortnights back they said newspoll was an outlier at 54. Climate denialists and poll denialists in toryland
Terminal Government! When will Julie make her move?
Actually, on a more serious note: does anybody else feel like they’re setting Julie Bishop up to step into the role of PM, in case Abbott needs to be dumped? I am not saying they’re going to dump Abbott but I am starting to think, based on the good coverage she’s getting and being one of the few senior ministers not to be seen as nasty or incompetent, she might be the insurance leader. (Yes I realise I slightly described a deputy)
[ So Jihadi Zombie Apocalypse = Poll Fail , Going Khaki = Poll Fail and global statesman Abbott = Fail. .What could he possibly try now ? ]
Well going by a discussion over drinks on the weekend the answer is direct action on multinational tax. Extend the success of Carbon action to tax avoidance, pay them a couple of billion in the hopes they will return something sometime. The worrying thing is that it sounded hilariously ridiculous at the time but like standard Lib logic in the cold hard reality of the next day!
[3
sprocket_
Our English born PM is monolingual.]
…surely you mean he’s monotonal…
[Let’s keep isolating them.]
A little divide and conquer, judiciously applied, is no bad thing.
It’s over.
No coming back from here.
Obama may be the lame duck President but Abbott is our Dead meat Prime Minister.
I’m starting a book.
Gone by christmas.
Why is the DT picking on Abbott’s gaff re Tassie being China? Has the Rupert Worm turned?
[21
imacca
Jones is giving me the sh$ts tonight. He is directing everything to Turnbull and letting him ramble.]
…giving him a bit of a platform from which to taunt Abbott..
I think Abbott can go lower by Christmas. When Napthine loses and the Melb Libs dump on Abbott post election the fun will start!
The thing is, the Government needs a new strategy, Budget and spokespeople.
Abbott, Hockey, Pyne, Cormann etc are all representations of the worst of the Government. You’d need a total reset.
Carey:
They put JBishop in as a Tone replacement and just watch the Murdoch tabloids and Lib shills do a 180 about face on misogyny!
Showy said:
Remember, this poll doesn’t fully factor in how big a farqtard Abbot was at the G20.
Yep.
Dead meat walking.
The comment from BW @ 39 about confirmation bias is on the money. While the Liberals will no doubt be shaken by the ugliness of these figures, the real problem is that they had to do so much over the last three months to try to claw back a point or two, and yet it’s fallen away again for them as if under the influence of gravity.
It would seem that many swinging voters remain deeply skeptical about and suspicious of Mr Abbott, and that their basic default position, in the absence of substantial countervailing factors, is to be strongly inclined against him. This makes a major turnaround look unlikely: people may well have stopped listening to him. Ms Gillard was in a similar position in her last year: recall there was a bit of a recovery underway in late 2012, but that fell away in early 2013.
They have boxed themselves in, and it’s hard indeed to see what their political strategy might be from here. A big defeat in Victoria will make things even worse for them, bringing back memories of the Queensland election of 1974.
“Gaffe”
Abbott used a gaff to hook the electorate.
Carey Moore – I don’t think anyone would seriously suggest that Truss, even though he is the Deputy, would be the alternative PM to Abbott, so yes Bishop is basically the PM in waiting should they make the move.
[They put JBishop in as a Tone replacement and just watch the Murdoch tabloids and Lib shills do a 180 about face on misogyny!]
Of course! Black becomes white with them as soon as it suits their agenda.
(Of course, I say this with the hope that, if it happens, we go after her hard but don’t resort to sexist/misogynistic rhetoric ourselves!)
@ JimmyDoyle, 74
The Liberals would likely rather go to an early election and lose badly than accept a Nationals MP as Prime Minister.
Unless Truss switches party he cannot be the alternate PM to Abbott.
[ does anybody else feel like they’re setting Julie Bishop up to step into the role of PM, in case Abbott needs to be dumped? ]
I think that has been obvious for some time. Said a few weeks back that we were already seeing the maneuvering to get Bishop embedded as heir apparent over Morriscum.
That said, will Tony go quietly so Bishop is NOT seen to be “knifing” a first term PM?? And i dont think there is much use dumping Abbott for Bishop if Hockey is still in place.
I think they should dump Abbott, but hope they dont 🙂 But just dumping Abbott wont i think solve whats a more complex problem.
LoL! Would Bishop front the press talking about a good Govt that had lost its way??
What are the odds that Turnbull will make a play for the leadershit ?
Any sign of ESJ tonight?
He was right about the slip sliding away. He just didn’t realise it was Abbott.
It is very early in the cycle and it is much to early for celebration, but good numbers to enjoy, they are also relatively stable and consistent across the polling houses.
Abbott has already playing the lack of security card, he has just failed dismally at the international statesman card …
What does he have left, if there isn’t some kind of magic economic surge he is in big big trouble.
@61,
Yes but that would mean dumping an elected Prime Minister and replacing him with an unelected woman.. oh no!
About the only thing which could get better for the ALP at the moment would be for the government to find a way of bringing in the $7 GP charge which doesn’t require Senate approval, as some press reports were hinting at a few days ago. If the government has such a thing in mind, they must truly have taken leave of their senses.
@ cud chewer, 82
Not to mention they’d be replacing a married Christian man who has children with an unmarried, childless woman who was formerly a lawyer.
[The Liberals would likely rather go to an early election and lose badly than accept a Nationals MP as Prime Minister.]
My real fantasy outcome is that the Liberals go mad and go for a DD election and lose badly. Should get rid of the Senate loonies too 🙂
@ pedant, 83
They do that and I can see the ALP getting to 60% 2PP. Not even kidding.
@79 – I don’t see any way for Abbott to leave the job unless it appears to be voluntary.
IF such a thing were to happen, the real battle would be who would replace him. However, the reality is, there would be negotiations to ensure that somebody of his choosing (within reason) were assured to get the job. Which would certainly be Bishop over Turnbull. In turn, a deal would be done with other aspirants.
I could see a Bishop/Morrison leadership with Turnbull in Treasury.
Buuuuut, I still find it hard to see it happening.
@ J, 87
Morrison as deputy? Please, I’m eating dinner.
L/NP 36 (-2) ALP 39 (+3) GRN 11 (-2)
39 + 11 = 50% primary progressive vote
14 months in
86 as – like Labor in 2001 – led 60/40.
I know @88… but I think it’s the most likely outcome.
85
A DD will not lead to a loony free Senate, as the quota is just over half at a DD compared to a half Senate election, unless GVTs are abolished.
Arnea Stormbringer and Confessions – that was largely my point.
[Yes but that would mean dumping an elected Prime Minister and replacing him with an unelected woman.. oh no!]
The Liberals will find a way of managing it so it looks like Abbott left on his own accord (which, of course, most of the media will blindly accept.)
The powerbrokers, if they tapped Abbott on the shoulder, would tell him that, if he went quietly under the veil of a health issue or something, his successor will appoint him to some plumb position or something like that. If he refuses, the media will “find” some dirt on Abbott and force him to resign in shame.
Okay, maybe I am being a bit fanciful now…
[@79 – I don’t see any way for Abbott to leave the job unless it appears to be voluntary.
IF such a thing were to happen, the real battle would be who would replace him. However, the reality is, there would be negotiations to ensure that somebody of his choosing (within reason) were assured to get the job. Which would certainly be Bishop over Turnbull. In turn, a deal would be done with other aspirants.
I could see a Bishop/Morrison leadership with Turnbull in Treasury.
Buuuuut, I still find it hard to see it happening.]
If only they were Labor they’d have Gina and Twiggy on national TV saying Tony must go tonight, and a whole lot of sheep meekly obeying in caucus tomorrow.
‘libspill’ is crazy.
It would be Coalition knifing stabbing stiletto wielding backstabbing faceless men virtually murdering our elected Prime Minister!
@ RR, 90
And then 9/11 and Tampa happened. I strongly doubt that
a) Events of that magnitude will happen again, and
b) Abbott would have the leadership skills to capitalise on them like Howard did.
Julie Bishop won’t challenge cos that would be disloyal and Tony said she was a ‘good, loyal girl” [SMH December ’09].
76
The Coalition (then UAP and CP) went into the 1943 election (in opposition after loosing independent support during the term) with a Country Party Leader as Opposition leader (and Billy Hughes as UAP leader).
ELECTION NOW!!!!!