Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

The Newspoll to be published in tomorrow’s Australian shows the Coalition back to its post-budget worst, and Morgan is hardly better for them.

The always reliable James J in comments relates that the Newspoll, to be published in tomorrow’s Australian, shows the Coalition back to its post-budget worst, with Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39% for Labor, 36% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. Whereas Newspoll’s two-party results have recently had a habit of coming in better for Labor than the primary votes would lead you to expect, this one sounds about right.

After a period where the two leaders have been roughly even, this poll gives Bill Shorten a 43-37 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. Abbott is on 36% approval and 55% disapproval, while Shorten is at 39% and 41%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1166.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly poll from Roy Morgan, which was also unpleasant for the government, with Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor up one to 38.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12%. Using preference flows from the 2013 election rather than respondent allocation, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3140.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research turns in another static result on voting intention, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens all stable on the primary vote (40%, 38% and 10%), and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48. The only move is that Palmer United is back down to 3% after two weeks at 4%.

Essential has shown good foresight in identifying free trade and China as the subject of its supplementary questions this week. Opinion on a free trade agreement is evenly divided at 34% approval and 35% disapproval, with 35% saying China will benefit more versus only 12% for Australia and 24% for both equally. Respondents are predictably more keen on “greater access to Chinese markets for Australian businesses” (61% support, 12% oppose) than “fewer restrictions on Chinese workers coming to Australia” (20% support, 57% oppose). When asked to rate likeliest beneficiaries of a deal, the Australian government, mining companies and business come on to with 52%, 48% and 44%, and the ever-embattled “working people” bottom on 25%. Beyond that, respondents were found to be highly cynical about the G20, with 62% rating it an “expensive talk fest” over 16% for the alternative option crediting it with “real outcomes for Australia and the global economy”.

Other questions tested respondents about the size of Australia’s refugee intake, with a general but not overwhelming tendency to rate it higher than it actually is. Opinions on the utility of the refugee program are evenly divided, except that only 20% agreed that “Australia’s overall population is too low and we need to increase the number of refugees to boost the numbers in our workforce”, with 62% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. You can delete #1 if you wish BiilBo

    Reposting

    Enjoyed watching Angela Merkel answering questions at Lowy Institute today. Had PJK chuckling whilst JWH 2 seats along looked like he was asleep.

    Despite giving her speech and answering all the questions in German, the last question from the moderator included an aside which was a thank you to Merkel for helping him with some technical problem earlier in the day, saying it was helpful to have a physicist as a leader.

    To which Merkel replied in perfect English, “Yes, but I was a theoretical physicist, so I only helped you in theory.”

    Ji Xinping also speaks perfect English, as does Putin. Both choose to give their speeches and pressers in their native tongue.

    Our English born PM is monolingual.

  6. At last Plibersek gets it: in shows like Q&A, a very few well chosen words, well-delivered, is always much better than a well-reasoned ramble across the country side.

  7. I find it surprising that 36% still seem to support Abbott.

    What’s that about? Or is it just that 36% haven’t seen any news reports at all in the last few days?

  10. guytaur@9

    The argument has turned the DT girl wants to keep the public broadaster

    Naturally – how else would they get the use of all that expensive infrastructure for nothing?

  13. To think that lots of this poll was taken on Friday and Saturday morning, before Obama was embarrassing Abbott and Abbott was embarrassing himself. As in…it could well get worse

  14. 1855 on the previous thread.

    Funny. However I do think that Lambie and Katter might work, for a while at least. They recently agreed over defence pay.

    I am also going to repost this on the new thread.

  17. [IMHO, Turnbull has achieved his main objective tonight: to be seen to be defending Abbott loyally.]

    But it’s still funny that whenever things go a bit wonky for Abbott, out comes MT to be the face of the govt.

  20. GG

    Just had a quick squizz to see whether anyone knows what had happened to Deb. Got a good laugh from Lamb Katletts.

    I see that DL has done righteous high dudgeon and has apparently ruled himself out handled ball.

  22. So Jihadi Zombie Apocalypse = Poll Fail , Going Khaki = Poll Fail and global statesman Abbott = Fail. .What could he possibly try now ?

  24. Has there been a Liberal govt in the last 40 years (or even since forever?) that has been so publicly contradicted on a key issue like President Obama did on addressing AGW?

  27. Expect this story to lead all news reports (like it did when ALP was in power). No, that ain’t gonna happen.

    Interesting to see how they polish this for the populace.

  29. Would the timing of this poll fully captured Abbott G20 failure or are we still waiting to see the effect of Abbott been the dude who screwed up on the big stage?

  31. Shame of it the 55-45 is not just two weeks out from the election. Thereby hangs the tale I suppose.

    When Labor was similarly down the general riposte was that it was “early days” and “come the election campaign” and such like.

    However, that a party with a thumping majority can be so far down in just 14 months with the leader still in the mire…and with the really tough stuff still to come ….is food for thought.

    To date internal feuds and squabbles have been at a minimum for the conservatives and if they can get to the election without at least one juicy scandal, it will be a miracle.

    While I doubt Abbott is for the chop, come 12 months from now and things have not picked up, some of the Nervous Nellies on the back bench might start to wonder if Abbott is their man for next time around.

  33. [ What could he possibly try now ? ]

    Ahhhh……

    We HAVE to follow through with our promises made at the G20!!

    GP co-payment and Increasing Uni costs need to happen!

    Direct action is wonderful and that Koala actually pissed on Vladamir!!

    Tony has had nothing to do with campaigning in Victoria!!

  34. 24

    I don`t think so, not that I remember all of the last 40 years, it must be McMahon criticising Gough until he heard the news about Nixon being in China (having just criticised Gough).

  38. While it is a little consoling that the nutty right wing dumb toffs that run Australia have a few less than a majority of Australians (when that poll was taken), it is hardly consoling that the nutty ring wing dumb not-toffs, which is the only allowed Westminster alternative, is not much better.

    The ALP shadow minster for ork affairs, likened the IRA to “Islamic State”. To him the IRA was not fighting for Irish independence but for a “Catholic State”.

    It is this garbage that seems to exemplify the ALP.

    I assumed it was aimed at the Islamic State vote!!

  39. IMHO, the best G20 bits for Abbott, relatively speaking, happened at the close and thereafter.

    Before that, I suspect that a couple of things were very damaging to Abbott:

    (1) smashed on his climate stupidity by Xi and Obama.
    (2) made himself look stupid by ending up by shaking hands cordially with a mass murderer instead of shirt-fronting him.

    Ticking away in the background, according to Morgan, were further reductions in confidence.

    IMHO, Abbott has spent four days doing confirmation bias. He has confirmed in the minds of most Australians what they pretty well suspected all along – he is not fit to he prime minister.

  41. [confessions
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Lambie splits from PUP. She didn’t even last 12 months.

    What a farce.]

    I just don’t see Plamer as Little Bo Peep.

  42. poroti@22

    So Jihadi Zombie Apocalypse = Poll Fail , Going Khaki = Poll Fail and global statesman Abbott = Fail. .What could he possibly try now ?

    He’s gonna invade IS. He thinks it is a landlocked body of land.

  43. [23
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 10:34 pm | PERMALINK
    g

    LeMarquand is the name. It does not seem to go together with the DT.
    ]

    My favourite NewsCorpse journo name is Chip Le Grand.

    Sounds like a porn star nom de guerre

  45. Lambie has five years to go. Maybe more if she can convince enough Tasmanians that she is neo-Harradine in terms of delivering lolly.

  50. [Shame of it the 55-45 is not just two weeks out from the election. Thereby hangs the tale I suppose.]

    Abbott came to power because he gave a voice to the lizard brained loud mouths in our society. The kind that talked loudly about that “stupid red head” in the office or the pub. These people are starting to feel socially isolated now. That in a nutshell is the key to the next election.

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