Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

The Newspoll to be published in tomorrow’s Australian shows the Coalition back to its post-budget worst, and Morgan is hardly better for them.

The always reliable James J in comments relates that the Newspoll, to be published in tomorrow’s Australian, shows the Coalition back to its post-budget worst, with Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39% for Labor, 36% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. Whereas Newspoll’s two-party results have recently had a habit of coming in better for Labor than the primary votes would lead you to expect, this one sounds about right.

After a period where the two leaders have been roughly even, this poll gives Bill Shorten a 43-37 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. Abbott is on 36% approval and 55% disapproval, while Shorten is at 39% and 41%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1166.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly poll from Roy Morgan, which was also unpleasant for the government, with Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor up one to 38.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12%. Using preference flows from the 2013 election rather than respondent allocation, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3140.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research turns in another static result on voting intention, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens all stable on the primary vote (40%, 38% and 10%), and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48. The only move is that Palmer United is back down to 3% after two weeks at 4%.

Essential has shown good foresight in identifying free trade and China as the subject of its supplementary questions this week. Opinion on a free trade agreement is evenly divided at 34% approval and 35% disapproval, with 35% saying China will benefit more versus only 12% for Australia and 24% for both equally. Respondents are predictably more keen on “greater access to Chinese markets for Australian businesses” (61% support, 12% oppose) than “fewer restrictions on Chinese workers coming to Australia” (20% support, 57% oppose). When asked to rate likeliest beneficiaries of a deal, the Australian government, mining companies and business come on to with 52%, 48% and 44%, and the ever-embattled “working people” bottom on 25%. Beyond that, respondents were found to be highly cynical about the G20, with 62% rating it an “expensive talk fest” over 16% for the alternative option crediting it with “real outcomes for Australia and the global economy”.

Other questions tested respondents about the size of Australia’s refugee intake, with a general but not overwhelming tendency to rate it higher than it actually is. Opinions on the utility of the refugee program are evenly divided, except that only 20% agreed that “Australia’s overall population is too low and we need to increase the number of refugees to boost the numbers in our workforce”, with 62% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. My own view is that no way are the Liberals considering a leadership change now. And in any case, unless that leadership change came with a change in treasurer, what would have been achieved in terms of the cause of their poll woes?

  2. @ Tom, 76

    Right, but that was the UAP – and at that point, the UAP was terminally ill and soon to be replaced by the Liberal Party.

  3. @ Tom, 99

    Right, but that was the UAP – and at that point, the UAP was terminally ill and soon to be replaced by the Liberal Party.

  4. Abbott isn’t Howard. He can’t save them.

    Turnbull might save them for 1 election.

    Bishop would lose, same for any of the rest.

    The cupboard is bare.

  5. [What happens if the Govt actually carries out it’s threat to bypass parliament and bring in the gp co-payment? 56-44, 57-43?]


  6. A return to Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal Leader, and thus his accession to the PMship, would be the only viable political move that this Government could make that would totally reset their agenda, but there is a near zero chance of that occurring as that would require party hard heads to count the numbers and make that difficult political calculation – there are no such heavy weights remaining within the Parliamentary Liberal Party, which has been captured by Tea Party fruitcakes, climate change deniers and religious cranks, almost all of whom are in thrall to Abbott and his allies.

    These same luddites would not be able to countenance a woman as leader, so scratch Julie Bishop before the race starts, and that leaves the mortally wounded Hockey, the stinking carcass of his failed Budget hanging lugubriously around his sweaty neck. Short odds on him being sent to the knackery anyway.

    Scott Morrison? Nah, too pushy and one dimensional. Pyne? Too ridiculous to even think about. Hunt? Too obscure and dull.

    No, it’s PM Abbott for better or worse, as they are reduced to musical deckchairs on The Titanic until 2016, when the doomed Coalition ship of state keels over on election day and the failed and discredited Captain of ‘Team Australia’ goes down with the ship.

  7. I don’t think there will be a leadership change. Abbott has coveted being the Prime Minister by any means. Consequently, he will, by any means, fight to stay.

    Although, I think the LNP voters are realizing the Faustian pact their party signed up for.

  8. [79
    Yesiree Bob

    What are the odds that Turnbull will make a play for the leadershit ?]

    I suspect Turnbull would be content with Treasury or Foreign Affairs. He knows that would be easier to sell to the hard right than making him PM, and hence much more conducive to party and government stability after they knife Abbott.

    Turnbull is getting too old to do another stint in opposition. He needs to play his cards very smart if he wishes to leave behind a more substantive and worthy political legacy than he has so far.

  9. Hockey doesn’t have the ticker to resist a move on the Lib leadership team.

    He’ll carp and whinge (hey, he could just pretend he’s still doing his job as Treasurer as he does now!), but he wouldn’t be much of a roadblock if the LNP decide to change direction.

    And yes, clearly the budget fiasco is one of the government’s major problems, and Hockey is the face of that – if the government radically reshape their budget, Hockey has to go at the same time.

  10. Precisely Big Ship.

    The opus dei nutters are firmly in control. That’s why the Turnbull option is a non starter. The Libs would consider postponing elections before accepting Turnbull.

    He should defect to Labor or the Greens like Fraser has.

  11. [My own view is that no way are the Liberals considering a leadership change now.]

    FWIW, at this point, I don’t think they will either. My Bishop theory (if it is, at all, accurate) is more a contingency plan than an action plan.

  12. Hockey’s interview with Cassidy was a shocker yesterday. I suspect he is very isolated. His political career went up in a puff of (cigar) smoke.

  13. On The Business just now:

    Toowoomba(!) International Airport.

    Fully funded by private money, no banks involved.

    OK, but who wants to fly to Toowoomba?

  14. Silent majority, if the Oddies are in charge, then Bishop won’t get elevated. I remember from my days at NSW Uni that woman weren’t allowed above ground floor at Warrane College.

  15. [Hockey’s interview with Cassidy was a shocker yesterday. I suspect he is very isolated. His political career went up in a puff of (cigar) smoke.]

    Hate to say I told youse so.

  16. Next up is Abbott.

    He was like one of those leeches who goes around to every female at the party, promising a night they won’t forget.

    Eventually his persistence pays off. Until the morning after.

    We are now in the “morning after” period.

  17. [Pyne for PM with Morrison as deputy and FM and Robb as Treasurer.]

    A trio of one-trick donkeys, that should do it.

    Bring it on. 🙂

  18. [55-45 2PP to Labor is a disastrous result for Abbott and his cheer squad in the Murdoch Circus. ]

    Well the couier-Mail led today with “BARACK OFF”.

    I laughed my head off: because theyve jumped the shark now. They just lost the public.

    Here’s a clue to the dicks at Murdoch: while not all punters like Obama, and not all like the US, the idea of majorly breaking stride with the US on a global issue is just not all that popular here. Least of all with the sort of punters who read your trashy shitsheets.

    Nope- youve screwed it now!

  19. Of course I can’t see this NEwspoll being reported on theABC with as much gusto as every single poll, no matter whether reputable or not, was lovingly gone over for negatives against Gillard.

    And incidentally, referring to the discussion on Q&A tonight re. the allegedly “tasteless” skit on 7.30… suck it up babies. The ABC ran a 4-part series called At Home With Julia without the lady herself complaining.

  20. [89

    L/NP 36 (-2) ALP 39 (+3) GRN 11 (-2)

    39 + 11 = 50% primary progressive vote

    14 months in]

    I think that counts a nice set of numbers.

  21. 105

    The Government has gone cold on the idea after the Crossbench (not including the Greens) opposed the idea. It may get passed by the government, opposition and Greens but that is likely to be as close as possible to the election to reduce crossbench upset.

  22. [Precisely Big Ship]
    From 125 back to 118


    Mal has deliberately and willingly compromised Australia’s future by ‘demolishing’ the NBN, as directed by his peers, just to appear as a loyal worker for the party and bank credit just for the sake of his overweening ambition to become leader.
    He has put, is putting, his personal ambition before the good of his country.

    Such a person is dangerous and not fit to be PM and such could and should be loudly trumpeted.

  23. [Lefty e true. Being off side with both USSR and USA leadership. What a master stroke. Tony Abbott, the poor mans Joh.]

    Theyre hoping the Repugs get in for 2016.
    Sadly,theyre in for a rude shock.

  24. Lefty e – well considering the Republicans have gone off the deep end even more so than Abbott and co have here… I don’t think there’s much danger of a Republican President for the next few terms.

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