ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Seven’s latest monthly ReachTEL robo-poll joins Newspoll and Essential Research in ticking slightly to Labor.

The Seven Network reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted yesterday has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 a month ago. More details to follow (although it may take a while).

UPDATE (26/10): Here at last are the full results from the poll, which turns out to have a sample of 3594. On the primary vote, Labor is on 37.5%, the Coalition 40.1%, the Greens 11.5%, and Palmer United 5.1% (a fair bit better than they’ve been doing from other pollsters lately).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,546 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. MTBW,

    Reflection on the Whitlam legacy, whether fair or not, makes the current government seem a little… underwhelming?

    I think even those who are not very engaged in politics can’t help but look back on that period of excitement and drama and contrast with the petty small-mindedness of current politics. Of course, with the debacle of Rudd/Gillard the Labor Party might suffer too, but they will benefit by virtue of not being the incumbent party.

    The death of a political great invites comparisons between history and the current representatives. I don’t think Abbott will fare well even against his Liberal contemparies (e.g. Howard). However, it remains to be seen what effect this has on voting intentions.

  3. WWP I don’t have the energy, time or inclination to apologise for Abbott’s shortcomings. It would be a full-time occupation and I have better things to occupy my twighlight years.

  8. tielec

    [The death of a political great invites comparisons between history and the current representatives. I don’t think Abbott will fare well even against his Liberal contemparies (e.g. Howard). However, it remains to be seen what effect this has on voting intentions.]

    Agree!

  9. DN I am pretty certain I could spend all day shouting from a soapbox “Abbott is hopeless. The government is hopeless.” and some folks would still believe it was an evil Liberal plot to support the Abbott government.

    I think I will spend my time more productively 🙂

  10. Seriously – it’s October and we’re still talking about the Budget? Is highlighting their inability to get it through suddenly a killer strategy?

  11. As a local councillor I was keen to get a good understanding of what we did what it cost and understand possible tradeoffs.

    Not that I expected taxpayers to like closing down support for x to increase for y.

    What surprised me was how reluctant the staff were to provide meaningful information for us to consider. It didn’t take me long to workout they were just protecting themselves. I assume state and fed public servants aren’t much better.

  16. I don’t think Napthine likes Abbott somehow

    @bellfrances: .@Vic_Premier on fuel excise increase before parl approval “it’s not a process that I would endorse… a process that is not appropriate

    Timing counts

  21. MTBW
    [My Dad owned a privately owned Service Station and the fuel was delivered twice a week. How on earth you can then get away with raising the cost however you like whenever you like is beyond me.]

    We too had service stations.

    Hence, my connection to Kezza’s hometown.

    We would get a phone call dictating the asking price for the fuel.

    If you didn’t do as directed you had great trouble sourcing your fuel.

  24. Dee

    A degree in medical microbiology with strong mathematics and genetics component.

    The stuff I am spouting is however just high school maths in its simple form.

  29. Dee

    No I have not worked much in the area although in related areas. However I have kept my interest in it hence the reason I bother to consider Ebola and other epidemics.

    This Ebola epidemic is more worrying than most others because it seems to combine high infection rate, very high mortality and really intense resources to combat it.

    I never got too concerned about the SARS etc because while nasty most people did not die from it. The only other recent “epidemic” that has worried me is the Hendra virus. This is a truly scary virus because it has the mortality of measles its close relative (or actually worse)and could morph to have the same infectivity. What I believe saved Australia/Brisbane from one hell of a horror back in 1994 was firstly some brilliant work by the Qld health department (good old fashioned hygiene with lots of carbolic) and the fact that the virus needed lots of contact with saliva of horses to spread. Had it spread in cough droplets like its close relatives measles and mumps, it could have been very very nasty.

  30. [ Seriously – it’s October and we’re still talking about the Budget? ]

    I find that amazing. Should be all done and dusted. However this lot have none of their headline savings measures in place. A completely compliant media is whats letting them get away with it though.

    If this had been the situation under Gillard, the media would be keeping it at a constant boil. But if they do it to Abbott it just highlights how much better the “chaotic” Gillard Govt was at actually governing compared with Abbott’s rabble.

    The press gallery will avoid exposing themselves as shallow minded sheep, even if it means tacitly supporting Abbott.

    The other funny stuff lately is the boosting of Mesma. FFS, i agree she is, relatively speaking, the shining standout on the Govt front bench. But that only because all the others are such massively incompetent dimwits.

    Cant wait to see how she gets on with the new Indon FM?? 🙂

  31. [(Reuters) – Dutch prosecutors investigating the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 believe the aircraft might have been shot down from the air but that a ground-to-air missile attack is more likely, a senior prosecutor said in a German media interview.

    The Russian government has always said it has radar imagery proving the fully laden Boeing 777 was shot down by a Ukrainian military aircraft flying in its vicinity, but Western officials have never publicly accepted this scenario.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/us-ukraine-crisis-mh-idUSKBN0IG1X420141027

  32. Dee

    I think vaccination is going to be the key to saving us from Ebola. Provided health workers can be vaccinated then you can effectively treat patients but while they have to work in space suits it seems to me to be an uphill battle, especially in poor countries

    Poor old bats. Seem to be blamed for everything!!!! I hate to encourage the anti bat panic – up here in Qld it is a bit of a thing especially with the likes of Newman et al.

  34. From today’s Essential report:

    [The most important achievements of the Whitlam Government were thought to be establishing Medibank (68%), abolishing university fees (39%) and ending conscription (28%).

    Among those aged 55+ (who were more likely to recall the Whitlam Government) the most important achievements were establishing Medibank (84%), ending conscription (38%), abolishing university fees (35%) and establishing diplomatic relations with China (31%).]

    The very strong message from young and old is “don’t interfere with Medicare”.

  35. Guytaur,
    Yes, Abbott had to reach into his ‘the ALP is evil and let me selectively quote something that ALP member etched into his desk in grade three’ basket a number of times.

  36. DTT
    I wonder where the anti-vaxxer nutters are going to stand when Ebola is on the street and vaccination is the only effective prevention.

  37. Mature Abbott debate:

    JUST BECAUSE MY GREAT BIG TAX ON EVERYTHING IS GOING TO GO UP AND UP AND UP AND UP DOES NOT MEAN IT IS WEAK, SNEAKY, TRICKY AND GUTLESS.

  38. [ The very strong message from young and old is “don’t interfere with Medicare”. ]

    Which makes sense. We have a good safety net that is important to old folks, and simply part of the landscape taken for granted by younger ones. If that landscape changes, or the Govt proposes to change it people need to know WHY.

    They simply are not managing to convince people that it needs to change. Their generalist arguments about debt and deficit aren’t cutting through since people have already decided that they are bullshit.

    If they really believed what they are trying to convince people of they would have dumped PPL long ago for a start, and they would have made their first budget more about reducing debt, not funding new spending. And the “fairness” issue with this budget sticks out in people faces like a baboons bum.

    Personally, i dont have a problem with the fuel excise going up. Should never have been frozen in the first place. However, the politics of it is going to be toxic for the Fibs. 🙂 And right at a time when they are saying “trust us” on the GST???

    They must be hoping for WWIII to break out just before the next election??

  39. DTT

    [I think vaccination is going to be the key to saving us from Ebola. Provided health workers can be vaccinated then you can effectively treat patients but while they have to work in space suits it seems to me to be an uphill battle, especially in poor countries]

    Yeah, I shudder to think what would happen if Ebola arrived in one of our poor neighbours.

    As for the bats!

    Point is, they may hold the key to a vaccine.

  40. [ I wonder where the anti-vaxxer nutters are going to stand when Ebola is on the street and vaccination is the only effective prevention. ]

    At the back of the cue i hope. 🙁

  42. [Does this legislation cover Prime Ministers or Presidents who are considered trouble makers?]

    I believe Newman is going to arrest Putin and put him in a pink jumpsuit.

  44. [ Yeah, I shudder to think what would happen if Ebola arrived in one of our poor neighbors. ]

    India, Indonesia are the worries. High population densities and poor medical services. That’s why it needs to get stopped and contained in Africa.

    What i cant believe is that the Govt have been running the line for weeks now that they dont have a plan to retrieve sick aid workers if needed.

    WHY THE FWARK NOT?? How long does it take to come up with a plan and get the equipment in place?? We can deploy bombers, radar and tanker/transports in a few days, but not have the logistics of an isolation medical transport worked out after weeks??? This is a serious indictment of their competence which naturally the press is not pursuing.

  45. Essential asks the question:

    “Q. When you think of Tony Abbott representing Australia at international conferences and meetings, how confident are you that he will do a good job in representing Australia to the international community?”

    And then breaks the answers down to three categories:
    1.Very confident … 17%
    2.Somewhat confident …32%
    3.Not at all confident…47%

    And headlines that as:

    “Very/somewhat confident …49%”I find that just a little bit strange.

    Why include the middle category as a positive – which is what I see as the implied value by lumping it in with ‘Very
    confident”?

    What would be the implied value of a heading that added the middle category with the negative thus?

    “Somewhat/Not at all Confident”…79%

  46. On the method of imposing the fuel excise increase, the Guardian explains:

    [The excise increase will be imposed through tariff proposals to be tabled in the House of Representatives this week.]

    This sounds like a back door method of increasing the excise. I know nothing about taxation law but I thought that a tariff applied to goods being imported into Australia. If the import tariff on imported fuel were to be raised, would that not have trade implications?

    Can any tax experts explain the mechanics of what the government intends to do?

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