ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Seven’s latest monthly ReachTEL robo-poll joins Newspoll and Essential Research in ticking slightly to Labor.

The Seven Network reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted yesterday has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 a month ago. More details to follow (although it may take a while).

UPDATE (26/10): Here at last are the full results from the poll, which turns out to have a sample of 3594. On the primary vote, Labor is on 37.5%, the Coalition 40.1%, the Greens 11.5%, and Palmer United 5.1% (a fair bit better than they’ve been doing from other pollsters lately).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,546 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 31
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  1. dave@28

    tielec

    The victorian election maybe.

    Victoria is traditionally strongly Labor.

    Would be a great theme to run in a state or federal election pointing out Labors achievements.

    If the tories over react, then point out their coup d’etat, which is basically what it was.

    Victoria only became strong for Labor after Federal Intervention in 1970.

    Before that, it was irrelevant. The troglodytes running it ensured that.

  4. [52
    Astrobleme

    Briefly

    So, no clues?]

    Nothing to do with fusion, sad to say.

    They range across a few areas…fisheries products, traffic behaviour, the labour market, mining equipment, cutting machines, training/learning….and some things I’m not able to mention… 🙂

  8. 38

    The split was strongest in Victoria. It was the DLP`s strongest state. It is no surprise that the Victorian ALP had trouble getting a greater proportion of votes for the ALP than NSW.

    Prior to 1952 the Victorian Parliament was heavily malapportioned in favour of rural areas, where the ALP did not do so well.

  9. 40

    They were saying that in the 1960s. In state elections in the 1960s the Liberals (then the Liberal and Country Party, even though the Country Party was separate and there was no Coalition) were getting bellow 40% of the primary vote (but were getting decent majorities in the Assembly (but never held the Council)).

  10. 51

    Victoria was weak for the ALP until 1972 because the split took a significant proportion of Victoria`s previously ALP voters with it. The DLP remained strong while the Coalition remained in power because it was good at opposing the ALP and still maintaining a separate identity from the Coalition Government. Under the Whitlam Government, with the help of the Gair affair, that collapsed.

    I think had Calwell, who was Catholic (like most of the DLP and its voters) from Victoria (the DLP`s strongest state), won in 1961 (which he was only a seat or two away from doing) then the DLP would have withered sooner.

  13. Despite Harper being a friend of Abbott, our PM never seem to take a page out of the Canuck’s book on terrorism.

    Canadian parliamentarians chose to praise the heroes, and call for calm instead of demonising the gunman. They also reached out to the Canadian Muslims and ask that they come to them for help if they have been threatened in any way after the recent incidents. There’s hardly any focus on blame and this cuts the oxygen away from what terrorists does best: keeping people fearful.

    Instead Abbott decides that our War Memorial is next. I’d like to know if there is any tip off from intelligence or he’s just going on a hunch.

  14. 61

    It was only the Liberals (even though they spent much of that time as the Liberal and Country Party). The Country Party were separate and outside government (they were out of the government from 1952 (the last time they led a minority government in Victoria) until 1992 (when they came into government will Kennet, even though they were not needed, to their detriment)) (for historical reasons and a lack of necessity due to the Liberals never having lass than half the Parliament).

    In 1972 Bolte, who always got less than 40% of the Primary vote, retired. He was replaced by Hamer, who was a far more small-l Liberal and far more popular. That is, combined with the Whitlam government driving the state ALP`s vote down, why the Liberals won big (with their primary well over 40% in 1972 and 1976).

  16. Astro…some have APP potential. Some are more old-style product/market related…derived from their safety attributes, versatility, simplicity and economy…

    I have also been recruited into a network founded on some inter-related themes drawn from entrepreneurship, training, innovation, social media and the UN’s sustainable development goals.

    I think of it as the frontier economy – the place where social, cultural and economic needs, learning and creativity, connection and sustainability may interact…very nourishing for the imagination. The interesting thing that recurs is the necessity for trust to be created. Without trust there is premature closure, repression and then stagnation. So trust is a precondition for the creative…or so it seems… 🙂

  17. 63

    The difference in Canada is that the Conservatives have had a harder time getting a majority because Quebec (about a quarter of the population and seats) has not voted for them, apart from a small minority, since 1988 and Harper has been pursuing the votes of socially conservative minorities, including migrant minorities (probably including Muslim minorities) to gain a majority in Parliament (narrowly achieved in 20011).

  18. dave
    [I’d be interested to see if Gough’s passing moves the major polls at all.]

    It may do. Voters might be reminded what direction the current mob are taking us. I think the effect will be minimal though.

  19. My hunch is Gough’s death-will have minimal impact on voting intention. But it I do believe it has had an impact on the current impact MSM journos. It serves to remind them that despite their deep skepticism, politics can change the country’s narrative and direction.

  20. [Well I’ve been wwith my gorgeous partner for 37 years too… Should I be making a song and dance about it…]

    Like to think you’d be making a song and dance about it with your partner before you made a song and dance about it with the likes of us, but some people for whatever reason feel compelled to overshare private stuff with strangers, esp in an online environment. I know I have, so who am I to judge.

  21. Gough’s passing should be taken as an opportunity to celebrate his achievement and legacy, to show Australians what a great PM looks like and draw attention to the way the pygmies in power are taking us backwards.

  22. FWIW the vox pops in the local paper this week were all about Gough’s passing. Everyone asked about his legacy (and they were strangely all old people – maybe youngsters went “who?” and so the journalist moved on), spoke of him and the achievements of his govt in positive terms.

  23. The current mob have a radical reform agenda too, but one they didn’t dare disclose it before the election, preferring instead to dogwhistle to racists and foster moral panic over carbon pricing. They are wreckers who seek to divide and rule. The contrast with Gough couldn’t be greater.

  26. OMG Malcolm Farnsworth, who sunk into a funk with the retirement of Rudd has burst back to life with the passing of Gough! He’s posted some kick-ass videos on his twitter feed as well.

    https://twitter.com/mfarnsworth

    Hopefully this represents a rekindling of his interest in Aus Politics website. Be a shame if that died, as I’ve said before.

  28. Steve777 @ 61

    The L/NP held government in Victoria from 1955 to 1982.

    It’s not surprising that people think Victoria was ruled by a Liberal/CP(NP) coalition from 1955 to 1982, because that has always seemed to be the “natural” scheme of things.

    However the “Liberal & Country Party” [sic, until 1965 – then the Liberal Party] ruled alone for that whole period.

    While Victorian Labor was largely impotent during that time, it was occasionally able to frustrate the government by siding with the (real) Country Party in the upper house, in which Bolte never had an outright majority.

    Given historical antagonism in Victoria between the conservative party (of whatever name) and the Country Party, many in the LCP liked the fact that the party contained the “& Country” in its title, but the Country Party hated it. The decision to drop the latter part of the name was due largely to the continuing success of the Coalition federally.

  30. [69
    Rossmore

    My hunch is Gough’s death-will have minimal impact on voting intention. But it I do believe it has had an impact on the current impact MSM journos. It serves to remind them that despite their deep skepticism, politics can change the country’s narrative and direction.]

    Nostalgia is a factor in politics, as in everything else….should reflect well on Labor from values/brand perspective…

  32. Corio@78

    Steve777 @ 61

    The L/NP held government in Victoria from 1955 to 1982.

    It’s not surprising that people think Victoria was ruled by a Liberal/CP(NP) coalition from 1955 to 1982, because that has always seemed to be the “natural” scheme of things.

    However the “Liberal & Country Party” [sic, until 1965 – then the Liberal Party] ruled alone for that whole period.

    While Victorian Labor was largely impotent during that time, it was occasionally able to frustrate the government by siding with the (real) Country Party in the upper house, in which Bolte never had an outright majority.

    Given historical antagonism in Victoria between the conservative party (of whatever name) and the Country Party, many in the LCP liked the fact that the party contained the “& Country” in its title, but the Country Party hated it. The decision to drop the latter part of the name was due largely to the continuing success of the Coalition federally.

    I didn’t know that!

    Your posts are informative and fascinating. Keep them up.

  34. The chaconne was broadcast on ABC Classic FM on Tuesday morning following the announcement of Gough’s death. I found it hit the spot at the time…

    Bach arr. Mendelssohn, orch. Milone
    Chaconne from Partita No.2 in D minor for solo violin, BWV 1004
    Joshua Bell, violin and direction; Academy of St Martin in the Fields

    Available on youtube:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myXOrVv-fNk

  36. Yuja Wang…

    [Wang resides in New York City but travels worldwide performing concerts. Wang has said that had she not had a career as a pianist, she might have become a choreographer or a clothing designer. Considered “fashionable and outspoken”, Wang has quoted in her Twitter feed both Mahler (“Tradition is tending the flame, it’s not worshiping the ashes”) and Coco Chanel (“A girl should always be two things: hot and lustful.”)]

    Brilliant

  38. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/kurdish-fighters-regain-ground-kobane-201410249144863437.html

    The Free Syrian Army is reportedly sending hundreds of fighters to help combat ISIL in Kobane

    [Kurdish fighters have retaken a hill near Kobane from ISIL fighters that could prove essential if further supply airdrops are made by the US and its allies.

    The hill to the west of the town was retaken overnight on Thursday with the help of an air attack, said Al Jazeera’s Bernard Smith, reporting from the Turkey-Syria border.

    Smith said the hill had been lost to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group on October 22, but was retaken in clashes overnight.

    “Most fighting here takes place in the dark. The retaking of the hill to the west of the city is significant because we believe it was where the airdrop took place,” our correspondent said. “It remains a very fluid situation in Kobane.”

    On October 19, the US made an airdrop of weapons and supplies to Kurdish fighters defending the border town against ISIL despite its ally Turkey’s declarations opposing such a move.

    Fighting for Kobane, known as Ain al-Arab in Arabic, has raged for more than a month. Despite air strikes by the US-led coalition, Kurdish fighters have not been able to push back ISIL.

    Earlier this week, the parliament of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq voted to send Peshmerga forces to Kobane after Ankara pledged to facilitate their passage through Turkish territory.

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said on Friday that the Kurdish PYD who were defending Kobane had agreed to the passage of 1,300 Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters to help them against ISIL.

    “The PYD said that it accepted the passage of 1,300 people from the FSA, and on this topic right now our relevant teams are negotiating what the route of their passage should be,” Erdogan said during a news conference in the Estonian capital of Tallinn.]

  39. http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/faultlines/2014/10/iraq-divided-fight-against-isil-2014102094753560718.html

    [The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) today controls as much as one-third of Iraq’s territory, including the second largest city, Mosul.

    Although the group’s power and influence expanded in Syria, Iraq is where it was born during the nearly nine-year-long US occupation of the country.

    Thus far, tens of thousands of people have had to flee their homes as ISIL captures towns and villages.

    ISIL-held territory is tightly controlled, off-limits to even journalists and human rights workers.

    As the US steps up its air campaign against the group, Fault Lines travels some 900km across Iraq to look at the consequences of the fight against ISIL.

    While Kurdish fighters and Shia militias battle ISIL, we find that they are facing their own accusations of human rights abuses, including ethnic cleansing.

    The attack on ISIL has created unlikely alliances. But as each group pursues its own interests, they are threatening to unravel Iraq and divide the country more than ever.

    Raed Jarrar, an Iraq political analyst, believes that “the US is stepping into an extremely bloody, complicated civil conflict. And we are funding, arming, Kurdish and Shia militias to attack Sunni areas. Iraqis will not see this as a fight against extremism, especially Iraqi Sunnis. They will see it as an attack against their neighbourhood. The US is only taking sides in a sectarian and ethnic conflict, supporting some extremist groups against other extremist groups.”]

  40. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/media/digital/2014/10/24/Britain-s-Queen-Elizabeth-sends-first-tweet.html

    [Britain’s Queen Elizabeth sends first tweet
    The 88-year-old’s Twitter debut came during a visit to London’s Science Museum as she opened a new gallery dedicated to the history of communication and information.

    Friday, 24 October 2014

    Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II sent her first ever tweet during a visit to a museum Friday, signing it “Elizabeth R” – and even removing a glove to post it.

    The 88-year-old’s Twitter debut came during a visit to London’s Science Museum as she opened a new gallery dedicated to the history of communication and information.

    The queen has gamely tried to keep up with new technologies during her 62-year reign.

    She received a mobile phone as a present from her son Prince Andrew in 2001 and sent her first official email in 2009 but is reportedly bemused by her subjects’ requests for “selfies” on royal walkabouts.]

    It is a pleasure to open the Information Age exhibition today at the @ScienceMuseum and I hope people will enjoy visiting. Elizabeth R.

  41. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/media/2014/10/24/Social-media-commentary-endanger-journalism-in-America.html

    [American newspapers depend far more on advertising revenue than sales via newsstands or home delivery. However, advertising revenue has declined from $63.7 billion in 2000 to $23 billion in 2013.

    Americans now spend about 5% of the time they devote to media of all kinds to newspapers and magazines, yet 20% of advertising dollars still goes to print media, almost out of inertia. That is changing, and even more radically since the younger the age group, the less likely they are to buy print media. Only a third of Americans under 35 read a newspaper even once a week, and the percentage declines every year.

    Newspapers and TV news organizations, which have also been losing out to internet viewing, can only remain barely profitable by reducing reporting and editing staff. The newsroom of the New York Times costs about $230 million a year, and despite heavy investment in a superb online version, it is barely profitable.

    The Washington Post – the second most influential newspaper in the United States – runs a news operation that costs more than $90 million, despite the reduction in staff and profits. Newsrooms all over the country have been decimated. Newspapers employed 59,000 journalists in 1989, but only 36,000 in 2012, and the figures continue to decline.

    To compete with the internet, reporters have to continuously update their initial stories in the course of a working day for their newspapers’ websites, instead of probing more deeply to develop the one version of their story that would appear in print. Reporters are also increasingly encouraged or required to script and narrate a video field report of the same story, again reducing the time available to advance the original story.]

  42. [Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II sent her first ever tweet during a visit to a museum Friday, signing it “Elizabeth R” – and even removing a glove to post it.]

    I was disappointed to learn her first tweet didn’t begin with
    [Unaccustomed as I am to tweeting…] 👿 😆

  44. Seeing as Centre isn’t around with the good oil I’ve studied the form and its 50 cents on number 1 Precedence in the Moonee Valley Cup all up number 11 Adelaide in the Cox Plate

  46. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Accounts receivable management Sydney style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bill-moss-and-son-stephen-hire-adam-kazal-to-collect-debt-20141024-11azil.html
    Paul Bongiorno on reaction to Whitlam’s death.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2014/10/25/claiming-goughs-political-legacy/14141556001156#.VEqwgvmUeSo
    Adele Ferguson is singularly unimpressed, though unsurprised, a the government’s response to a bipartisan call for a Royal Commission into the CBA scandal.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/call-on-commbank-royal-commission-disappointing-and-shallow-20141024-11bc0h.html
    How utilities will commit suicide by solar.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/10/23/energy-markets/how-utilities-will-commit-suicide-solar
    Bloody guns! Yet another US school shooting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/washington-state-high-school-on-lockdown-after-shooting-20141025-11bll1.html
    Peter Hartcher muses over tensions in the Abbott ministry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-star-rises-as-tony-abbott-revels-in-ministers-jockeying-20141024-11bd8z.html
    Stephen Koukoulas on the risks of falling house prices.
    http://adelaidereview.com.au/commentary/article/the-risks-of-falling-house-prices
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/10/24/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-91-2/
    I find this sort of cultural stuff very difficult to handle,
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/marriage-student-pleads-guilty-to-sexual-intercourse-with-child-20141024-11b3r2.html
    More potential damage from Abbott’s ideological RET reduction.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/industry-warns-nsw-could-lose-10-wind-farms-25-billion-under-tony-abbotts-plan-to-cut-clean-energy-20141024-11apwj.html

  47. Section 2 . . .

    Now Abbott wants the states to be adults. Just like him!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/reform-the-federation-to-give-all-states-a-fair-go-pm-20141024-11bbcu.html
    What will the privatisation of Medibank Private bring about?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/medibank-private-sale-could-unleash-cutthroat-competition-critics-warn-20141024-11b2y6.html
    Lambie tells Pyne to get stuffed over uni fee deregulation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jacqui-lambie-blasts-christopher-pynes-porkbarrelling-universities-package-20141024-11bbeu.html
    The Child Abuse RC hears that he NSW government failed to protect children.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/24/nsw-failed-to-protect-children-from-abuse-says-michael-coutts-trotter
    Mike Seccombe has a good look at supermarket power.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/business/2014/10/25/supermarket-forces/14141556001164#.VEqv_PmUeSo
    Looks like Shorten will give the Australian Christian Lobby a serve on SSM and other issues when he steps into its den.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-to-confront-christian-lobby-over-samesex-marriage-20141024-11bbdz.html
    Lenore Taylor on “Operation Let’s Salvage All We Can” with the budget.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/24/operation-budget-2014-moves-into-nip-and-tuck-stage
    Alan Ramsay returns to reflect on Gough Whitlam’s early days.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-gough-whitlam-i-knew-principled-reckless-brave-and-compassionate-20141024-11b64y.html
    Labor is working on ways to curb George Brandis’s powers.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/10/25/alp-plans-temper-brandis-security-powers/14141556001163
    Another example of the nasty changes to Newstart proposed by Mr Grecian 2000.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/24/more-than-1000-pregnant-women-could-lose-newstart-under-budget-plan

  48. Section 3 . . .

    The Federal Court gives Morrison a kick in the teeth over detainee data.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/24/asylum-seekers-win-appeal-over-immigration-department-data-breach
    Richard Ackland looks at the Spurr/New Matilda case.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/24/barry-spurr-v-new-matilda-the-facts-the-law-and-the-porridge
    Peter Wicks piles into Abbott over the handling of Michael Lawler.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/what-about-me-tony-abbott-needs-to-address-michael-lawler-of-fair-work-commission/
    The ANU stands firm against anti-divestment attacks.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/just-good-business-anu-stand-firm-against-furious-anti-divestment-attacks,7028
    A very good weekly contribution from John Birmingham.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/economist-disarms-gough-whitlams-sneering-detractors-20141023-11alm7.html
    Ross Gittins – The economic chaos was not all of Gough’s making.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/reformer-gough-whitlam-oversaw-economic-chaos-but-it-was-not-all-of-labors-making-20141024-11b1kp.html
    The Oklahoma legislature asked for it by thumbing its nose at the separation of church and state/
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/oct/24/ten-commandments-oklahoma-city-capitol-smashed-driver

  49. Section 4 . . .

    Alan Moir shows us Abbott selling tactic for the budget.

    David Pope does it again. And Look at the TV.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg nails it again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Simon Letch compares Abbott to Whitlam just perfectly.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/simon-letch-20090908-ffni.html

  50. briefly

    I’ve shown Yuja Wang playing Flight of the Bumblebee to some of my students. Awesome!

    Thanks for the lovely words on my anniversary and thanks to RaaRaa. May you too be as happy as I am with my SO in 25 years time.

    🙂

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