Seat of the week: Holt

A once marginal seat now safe for Labor, Holt in Melbourne’s south-east has provided a home for Gareth Evans, and more recently Anthony Byrne.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Holt covers a Labor-voting area of Melbourne’s outer south-east, extending from Endeavour Hills and Narre Warren south through Hampton Park to Cranbourne. This area was accommodated by Flinders before urban expansion caught up with it after the war, then by Bruce from 1955 until the creation of Holt in 1969. The electorate was considerably larger at that time owing to the area’s lighter development, extending westwards through Dandenong to Springvale and eastwards to Emerald. Progressive redistributions reduced its area thereafter, but it continued to encompass Dandenong up to the redistribution that took effect at the 2004 election. It then assumed roughly its current dimensions, with Dandenong divided between Bruce and Isaacs, and Holt gaining Cranbourne from Isaacs.

As the balance of semi-rural areas and low-income outer suburbs tilted increasingly towards the latter, Holt transformed from highly marginal to safe for Labor. It was won for the Liberals on its creation in 1969 by Leonard Reid, then held for Labor during the Whitlam years by Max Oldmeadow, with William Yates winning it back for the Liberals in 1975. The watershed came when Michael Duffy won the seat for Labor with an 8.7% swing in 1980, and the margin was in double figures by the time Gareth Evans transferred to the seat from the Senate in 1996. Evans announced his intention to resign on the night of the 1998 election defeat, and while this ruffled feathers at the time, it did not cause trouble at the ensuing by-election for new candidate Anthony Byrne, who won easily in the absence of a Liberal candidate.

The loss of Dandenong in the 2004 redistribution cut Labor’s margin from 13.3% to 7.9%, which was followed by a further swing to the Liberals of 6.4% at the ensuing election, typifying Labor’s poor performance across Victoria. Reflecting the sensitivity of interest rates in a heavily mortgaged electorate, it then recorded a particularly forceful swing to Labor of 10.1% in 2007, joining Calwell in Melbourne’s outer north as one of two Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to Labor. The Labor margin was further boosted by 1.6% amid a generally strong result in Victoria in 2010, before a 4.9% swing in 2013 pared it back to 9.1%. A redistribution in the interim increased the margin by 0.8% through a transfer of over 14,000 voters in Narre Warren, Narre Warren South and Berwick to La Trobe in the east, a result of rapid growth in the outer suburbs generally, and around Cranbourne in particular.

The member throughout this period has been Anthony Byrne, a member of the Right faction who was widely noted as a supporter of Kevin Rudd throughout the previous government’s long-running leadership saga. Byrne won promotion to shadow parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006, then became parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister after the 2007 election, with the trade portfolio further added in February 2009. He reportedly switched support from Rudd to Julia Gillard for the June 2010 coup only when it became apparent that Rudd was headed for a heavy defeat, and was demoted to the back bench after the 2010 election, where he has since remained. In April 2014 he made headlines after accusing Bob Carr of “narcissism, self indulgence and immaturity” on the occasion of the latter’s book being published.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

607 comments on “Seat of the week: Holt”

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  4. Edwina StJohn@445

    Au contraire bemused, I am a resolute independent and truth teller.

    BTW – you are kind of getting stalkerish. (Just saying).

    The only things you are independent of is intelligence and truth.

    Accusing me of stalking because I exposed you and your alter ego? 😆

  8. Did I hear Leigh Sales tonight headline one of her stories, “Battle Stations” tonight?

    And just WHAT is it with TV tabloid current affairs shows apeing newspapers with pithy headlines?

    It sounds so phoney when they read them out, as if they meant something.

  12. Just watching Andrew Robb on The Business, and was reminded of his part in the Liberal leadership putsch of 2009… wondering how Abbott got away with stabbing Hockey in the back, and publicly lying to Turnbull, without condemnation as a rat of the highest order (as was Gillard in the case of Rudd)?

    Throw in Reithy and Abbott’s part in his losing the Liberal Presidency and a pattern emerges.

    Yet Abbott is lauded as being trustworthy and loyal?

  13. Four Corners tonight was pretty sickening, with James Packer and his ‘interesting’ casino associates. Quite remarkable how the Melcourne casino licence checks were completed in fastest time ever (3 months) and how the Canadian crime expert was stunned into silence when told that Australia was allowing ‘junkets’ .i.e high roller service providers, into our casinos, the same ‘businesses’ that have been refused any licences at all in Singapore.

    I can see more than a few future Royal Commissions in the offing over the goings on detailed in 4C tonight.

    Has James Packer ever done one thing useful to the world in all of his life?

  14. Yep.

    [“The obvious answer is that austerity was never about tackling public debt. It was not even a political campaign to end the ‘culture of entitlement’. In the UK, in the eurozone, and now in Australia, austerity is, and always was, a thinly disguised campaign of invoking fiscal prudence and public virtues in order to indulge private vices and redistribute entitlements at the expense of the majority.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/austerity-comes-to-australia-lessons-from-the-eurozone/5684176

  15. PMTD

    [Has James Packer ever done one thing useful to the world in all of his life?]

    Wondered the same thing. His heart must be closed to the nullity that he sells in his casinos. Surely the bloke has enough money and could make a positive contribution to the world if he wished.

  16. Re Scot Natspost 459 460 Raa Raa/Guytur
    ______________

    from a Scots friend…I am told the Nats have waged a brilliant local campaign enlisting all sorts of community groups into theie campaign…and helped by the Bossy,snobby UK establisment style of telling the Scots what to do(they have centuries of practice at that)

    The Westminster Gang as they are now called from the Tory-Labour-Lib Dem Party…really a single group of politicians now..and not to mention Lizzy Windsor having a word to say..which must in the future push the Republican cause along ..( a nice poster I saw some time ago in Glasgow. said…” Pack your Bags Lizzy.”..with her picture with a cross though it )

  17. does anybody else suspect that the Oz hacks are having a competition to write the most deluded crap they can? are they taking the piss?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/the-political-religion-born-in-the-liberal-west/story-fnhulhjj-1227059488605

    according to this – violent islamic fundamentalism is the fault of ‘deconstructionalists’ (and others who question the PMs motives) and those wanting tolerance, equality and non-racist treatment of our citizens. if only we’d all been allowed to exercise our george-given rights to be bigots, none of this would have happened. those lefties have a lot to answer for.

    mentally I am backing out of the room where Cater sits, open palms held up in front of me at shoulder height, as I say reassuringly “Yes Nick, Hmmmm, O-K, ahhh – I’m just going to pop out this door” as I then turn run to get heavies from the nearest funny farm to take him away.

    also – has anybody else noted abbott calling Milne a “feeble minded person” today – he just stopped himself saying “feeble minded woman”, quickly slipping in “person” at the last moment, but you could tell how the phrase/sentence ran in his closed little mind.

  18. Centre

    [Science hehe one of my very best subjects at high school.

    I used to spend the entire period chatting up the chicks on the bench in front]

    That probably explains your ignorant and embarrassingly juvenile comments on climate change.

  20. I also watched the Lateline discussion on the Scottish vote. If the best the unionists can do is to roll out arrogant goons like the bloke from The Telegraph the Yes campaign should win easily.

  21. [436
    Centre

    oooh climate change Q.

    Shhh, we might find out when it will start.]

    What an absurd thing to say. You are obviously determined to prove again and again that you are a complete f-wit. For someone who prides themselves on observing form and odds, you are remarkably resistant to the data on climate change. Is it that you don’t understand it…that you are just too f-ing dim to comprehend it? Or are you just a ridiculous smart-arse? Just another smug shithead who thinks it’s clever to be stupid?

  25. Morning all. The newspapers are still dominated by Iraq military action nonsense. Operation Daily Press Release is already under way. It will remain the government’s sole priority until completed. PM Abbott will not allow himself to be distracted by passing the budget, restoring a surplus, fulfilling various promises, or generally governing the country until this direct threat to our national security, a mere 11,000 kilometres away (easily within range of intercontinental web posts), is defeated.

  28. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The fickleness of “goodies and baddies” foreign policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/is-australia-arming-terrorist-pkk-fighters-20140915-10h8cc.html
    How to manipulate real estate demand LA style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/woman-admits-pranks-aimed-at-driving-couple-from-the-home-she-wanted-20140915-10h14k.html
    This says it all about the government’s attitude to science.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/csiro-scientists-sorting-mail-cleaning-labs-after-budget-cuts-20140915-10h2ve.html
    Peter Martin on how the government is a bank. Interesting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-government-should-become-more-like-a-bank-thats-what-it-is-20140915-10f6c9.html
    NSW Labor wants principled Jodi McKay back in the fold but she won’t allow herself to be parachuted in.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/jodi-mckay-refuses-a-parachute-20140915-10h4a0.html
    Why do I feel sick when I read this sort of stuff?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-warns-australians-fighting-for-islamic-state-could-be-targeted-by-raaf-bombs-20140915-10h2cf.html
    And nauseous when Hartcher dishes out his Abbott man-love tripe.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/longsuffering-arabs-await-demise-of-all-the-baddies-20140915-10hagk.html
    Mark Kenny muses on the possibility of a khaki election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/does-war-mean-were-set-for-a-khaki-election-20140915-10h2k1.html
    Why big business loves war and chooses conservatives to back politically.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/macquarie-cashes-in-on-worlds-war-machine-20140915-10h8qb.html

  29. Section 2 . . .

    More scientists speak out on the politicisation of research funding.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/medical-research-fund-should-not-be-political-football-say-experts-20140915-10halz.html
    Education funding is a matter of equity.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/education-funding-is-a-matter-of-equity-20140915-10h2zn.html
    Hugh White with a measured article on the next submarines.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/japanese-submarine-option-oddson-favourite-20140915-10gz7m.html
    Sarah Palin and her lovely family in a big, drunken punch-up.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/09/15/palin-family-centre-drunken-brawl/
    Some food for thought on renewable energy.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/renewables-best-solution-for-growing-global-population-says-report,6898
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/09/15/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-60/
    Hockey calls for Sinodios to return to the ministry. Why Joe? Is it his iron grip on the detail in organisations he headed? Is it for his wonderful powers of recall? Is it his business ethics?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/joe-hockey-says-arthur-sinodinos-should-return-to-frontbench-20140915-10h2v7.html
    Geoff Cousins to head up the ACF. He won’t take any crap from Hunt, etc!
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/gunns-pulp-mill-nemesis-geoff-cousins-to-head-acf-20140915-10h4sq.html
    Greg Jericho puts the microscope over the latest employment figures.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/sep/15/abs-employment-figures-for-august-statistical-aberration-or-recovery
    Garbage on our own high seas is home grown say the experts.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/09/15/garbage-our-high-seas-homegrown-say-scientists

  30. Section 3 . . .

    Is the Little Big Man in Queensland going so bad that he will be replaced by someone possibly worse?
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/here-we-joh-again-tactical-liar-set-to-replace-newman-as-qld-premier,6899
    Is this something else George Brandis can stuff up?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/antipiracy-push-will-lead-to-higher-music-movie-prices-allan-fels-henry-ergas-20140915-10h47m.html
    James Hardie is still at it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/asbestos-victims-slam-james-hardie-move-to-pay-in-instalments-20140915-10h743.html
    John Howard questions Abbott’s two Royal Commissions.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/15/john-howard-questions-coalitions-two-royal-commissions
    Bruce Petty with the armaments we will deploy in the middle east.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/bruce-petty-20090907-fdvy.html
    And Alan Moir on a similar theme.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Cathy Wilcox sees our submarine building capability going down.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope seems to be a little concerned about the ACT’s infrastructure plan.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Great work from David Rowe from Abbott’s command tent.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  34. briefly 471 re Centre stupidity @436

    August was the hottest August in recorded history according to NASA. And May was the hottest May.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/15/warmest-august_n_5823642.html

    People who actually have half a brain and want to show support for maintaining a livable climate and possibly stop this stupid government from maliciously sabotaging the RET can join The People’s Climate march this weekend at locations through Australia and the world.

    This is designed to coincide with the UN climate summit in New York and will be a major event. (I wonder if “our” government will be represented?)

    This link shows locations of marches near you: http://peoplesclimate.org/global/

  36. Mungo MacCallum:

    [A moral crusade, however passionate it may be, is not the business of a national government. This is not to say that Australia should ignore the outrages, but it is to say that any implementation has to be tempered, indeed subordinated, to the national interest. Otherwise we would have never-ending wars against everybody, in the model of George Orwell’s dystopian satire 1984.

    Sure, IS makes a policy of beheadings – but so does Saudi Arabia. IS commits consistent abuses of human rights – but so does China. IS kills many civilians – but so does Israel. IS is a culture of violence – but so is America. And of course IS indulges in terrorism – but so did the IRA and we did not contemplate air strikes.

    We cannot, and certainly should not, attempt to right all the wrongs of the world. And the most basic point is that IS is not some irrational death cult, pure evil to be defeated by some kind of exorcism. Its leaders may be considered mad, bad and dangerous to know but their essential motivation is the desire for power – hence the idea of a caliphate. In that sense they are the lineal descendants of the empires of Genghis Khan, Tamburlaine, Hitler and Stalin, not to mention some less notorious imperialists.

    And from Australia’s perspective, they are half a world away. To suggest that they are a clear and present threat (or any conceivable foreseeable one, for that matter) is simply nonsense. But what about local terrorism, home grown or imported or (gasp) repatriated from Syria and Iraq?]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-15/maccallum-sending-our-forces-into-another-mission-impossible/5744482

  37. Please let a journalist pick up on this. Remember Brandis and his metadata move ? In NZ Snowden and Greenwald along with John Key appeared at a meeting. During which this came up.

    [a NSA slide published on his Intercept website yesterday showed the first phase of the so-called “Speargun” programme — tapping the Southern Cross cable — was completed in mid-2013.

    He claimed another slide showed the GCSB was awaiting the passage of the legislation before proceeding with the second stage, inserting a “metadata probe” that would allow the collection of data.]
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11325214

    The cable route

  38. Centre

    [I used to spend the entire period chatting up the chicks on the bench in front]

    So Centre wanted not merely to be ignorant himself, but foreclose the insight of others. He is still doing it here, wallowing in his own ignorance and trying to stink up the place.

    To quote Centre, “stay away from him. He’s bad news”.

  39. Thanks for the link, Trog – I used it to track down a local march and have publicised it as widely as possible, using my various social media outlets..

  40. Lizzie

    Mungo’s argument is robust here. I would demur at this point however:

    [We cannot, and certainly should not, attempt to right all the wrongs of the world.]

    We absolutely can and should attempt to right all of the wrongs of the world. We should however, be aware of the practical constraints upon doing so, choose our means judiciously, set achievable goals, encourage others to act with us in concert, continue to review our progress and adjust on the basis of the most salient data and modelling and so forth.

    We should do what we reasonably can — no less and no more — and do that without hyperbole or chest thumping. If we really did have adults in charge, that’s what policy process would look like.

  41. Morning

    Lizzie

    We are not going back to Iraq on the basis of a moral crusade. Of course, Abbott is couching it in those terms. Purely geopolitical factors are at play. The west have their interests that need to be secure and ISIL, are obviously causing disruption.

  43. Good Morning

    Bill Shorten has on AM taken up Abbott’s Humanitarian crusade.

    He has said we need to increase our migrant intake to accommodate people from Iraq and Syria.

  45. @BarnsGreg: #auspol with the notable exception of @Ausflatfish Phillip Dorling the Canberra centric MSM ignores the Greenwald Snowden revelations

  48. Someone noted the following so of course they hate us for our freedom.

    [Every American president in the last quarter of a century has decided to bomb Iraq.]

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