BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 24
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  2. [Julie Bishop is one of the very best foreign affairs ministers among the world’s 196 nations, according to the US ambassador to Australia.]
    Which is Americanese for “She rolls over , sits up and begs on our command” . It’s a feature uanks prize very highly in their “friends” .

  4. For those interested in words and English re the word slut, it was NOT originally a term used about “loose” women but referred to a woman who was untidy, lazy or clumsy. The male equivalent is oaf, clot or layabout. The original word was probably slattern, which is still used occasionally in its original sense. I guess “Slag” also is close to the original term.

    I have an old cooking book which when describing how to make pastry refers to slut’s fingers,which means if when kneading the dough you leave traces on the edge of the bowl. Hard as I try, I am afraid I am guilty of slut’s fingers whenever I make pastry.

    Now since sluts or slatterns were likely to be poor servants doing the worst jobs, many may have earned a little extra on the side,or simply enjoyed men as one of the few pleasures in life, hence the translation from a lazy a girl to one with loose morals.

    Needless to say they are all patronising derogatory words.

  6. And Abbott will follow suit in 10,9,8,7,………

    [David Cameron: Britain facing ‘greatest terrorist threat’ in history

    Britain faces the “greatest and deepest” terror threat in the country’s history, David Cameron warned as he pledged emergency measures to tackle extremists.

    The UK threat level was raised to “severe” — its second highest — meaning that a terrorist attack is “highly likely” in light of the growing danger from British jihadists returning from Iraq and Syria.]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11065167/Britain-facing-greatest-terrorist-threat-in-history.html

  7. BK

    You are very kind but nt a patch on the master , badcat is the lead apprentice I assure you.
    Just saw this as going out to coffee

    Don’t fall to sleep will you during the christening?

  8. BK

    You are very kind but nt a patch on the master , badcat is the lead apprentice I assure you.
    Just saw this as going out to coffee

    Don’t fall to sleep will you during the christening?

  10. Abbott’s treatment of the party room – and now of his Ministers – underlines this point.

    Damn it, ‘and now that of his Ministers…” –

    Probably right on both counts

  11. mari
    Thanks. My son’s in_laws and us are walking to the Melbourne market to get stuff to make Turkish mezzes for the after party tomorrow.

  14. Dave ..

    Spot on!! ..Cameron tanking in the polls, so what to do?? Why, play the FEAR card. Works a treat, as Tories have found over the ages..

    We can expect Abbott to ramp it up as we get closer to election16.. He’s got fcuk all part from fear after all..

  15. Hockey’s budget cut a $9.7 million program initiated by Labor as a result of a White Paper on terrorism.

    The program was for a community engagement.

  16. [Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 36m
    In heaven everyone smokes what Mr Hartcher did when he wrote today’s column.]

    I haven’t read it, but isn’t this true of Hartcher’s usual writing?

  17. guytaur@903

    [@SenatorLazarus: Thank you to Solar Citizens for your support]

    Good on him.

    If Abbott thinks it is good politics to mess with household solar pv, he has got another thing coming. Solar pv is a high awareness issue, most valued by voters of all political persuasions.

    Another aspect.

    There is going to be a boom in rooftop installations while there is perception that RET support is to be dropped. If RET support isn’t dropped, then the net effect will be to further accelerate the amount of small scale solar. That will really get up the nose of the COAlition.

  18. confessions

    The headline for Hartcher’s column was ok “Tony Abbott cannot escape Joe Hockey’s budget” but it went down hill from there. Unless he too has joined Hartcher in a ‘heavenly smoke’ what the US ambassador said about Bishop must be a piss take.

  20. William Bowe,

    [Has anyone thought to ask these right-wing Christian fundamentalists why they named themselves after a Bob Marley album?]

    Yeah, and why have they stolen “Onward Buffalo Soldiers” as their recessional hymn?

    Is this love, I ask?

  21. Now taking nominations for most ridiculous line from a journo today. heavy voting for Hartcher’s

    [we are seeing the transformation of Abbott from domestic scrapper to wartime statesman. ]

  22. [We can expect Abbott to ramp it up as we get closer to election16.. He’s got fcuk all part from fear after all..]

    I think it is good that Abbott has played the card so early … hopefully Labor can mount a better attack than they did this week.

  23. Markjs

    [http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/aug/29/why-is-the-united-arab-emirates-secretly-bombing-libya-video]

    He tried immigration 6 months ago … but didn’t fly.

  25. It would be a safe assertion that more Aussies (ex-military mainly) have gone overseas to fight as mercenaries, particularly in the last 10 years or so for the US ‘private mercenary army’ Blackwater, which has changed its name several times and is currently known as Academi.

    Iraq was also where they were deployed in most cases.

    Are they going to be prosecuted upon return, have their passports cancelled or even stopped from leaving the country.

  28. There are a few bits from Hartcher which ring true. Heavy editing here:

    [Abbott can try to avoid talking about the budget but he cannot distance himself from it. It is at least as much his as Hockey’s. The inner workings of a government’s budget are conducted in the expenditure review committee of the Cabinet. In the customary media parlance this is usually the “razor gang”, although in the late Howard years and the Rudd and Gillard years it was more like the Santa and the Elves gifts committee.

    Who chaired the Abbott government’s razor gang? Tony Abbott. The prime minister opened each meeting of the committee with an outline of the ideological, political and economic guideposts that would apply, according to people present. He was firm in enforcing them.

    …Abbott this week conspicuously failed to endorse Hockey, …But there’s nothing to see here, not now at least.

    Abbott shares responsibility for misjudging the budget just as surely as he shares credit for Australia’s successes in foreign affairs. OK, Abbott didn’t say that poor people don’t drive. He didn’t sign the statement of understanding with Indonesia this week. But the prime minister has been central to all major policy in both portfolios.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-cannot-escape-joe-hockeys-budget-20140829-10a4nt.html#ixzz3BpMvgyrS

  29. [ war monger ]

    Indeed. Credlin has obviously twigged that it’s better for “Vladimir” Abbott to make a goose of himself overseas rather than here – and anyway his polling tends to improve when he is out of Australia.

    It also means he doesn’t have to try and sort out the problems and dysfunction in own back yard – he’s obviously far too busy saving the world instead!

  31. [The prime minister opened each meeting of the committee with an outline of the ideological, political and economic guideposts that would apply, according to people present. He was firm in enforcing them. ]

    Have those “people present” shared all that publicly, or is there more leaking going on, this time to Hartcher?

  34. [WWP sure just like some here will criticize her regardless of her performance.]

    True it has been a few months since she said something really stupid, but still I don’t know how others construe this as brilliant performance.

  39. [ davidwh
    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    WWP sure just like some here will criticize her regardless of her performance. ]

    ‘Some’ prefer to look at her actual track record, including getting the boot as shadow treasurer. When it comes to foreign affairs – here is what her own side have said about her –

    [Sheridan –

    ..Bishop has been the worst opposition foreign affairs spokesperson in the 30-odd years that I have watched this position closely.

    ..You couldn’t even begin to list the astonishing blunders she has made in the portfolio

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/bishops-errors-of-judgment-compound-the-coalitions-woes/story-e6frg6zo-1226005396902%5D

  41. Plan, what plan? Even Hartcher calls it Abbott’s ideology.

    [The idea that student fees should cross-subsidise research capacity makes about as much sense as asking sick people to pay a $7 co-payment to fund future medical research but then again, fairness and economic theory don’t feature strongly in this government’s long term plan.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/christopher-pynes-higher-education-plans-wont-fly-and-shouldnt-20140829-109ybg.html#ixzz3BpUQ6g8k

  42. [ davidwh
    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Gee PB’ers using the Australian as a confirmation is a classic. ]

    What is *classic* is the attempted use of ‘Look over there’ in order to not address the points made by sheridan.

    mesma has a well established record of incompetence which her own side have highlighted.

    Thats even before raising asbestos which it will be if see ever becomes leader.

  43. [One example of that was when she grabbed the bull by the horns, got on a plane to New York and engaged with the UN Security Council over the MH17 tragedy.

    “That was a high-risk strategy. ]

    No, sorry, it wasn’t.

    Seriously, the UN was going to take the attitude that a passenger plane had been shot down by amateur hour loony separatists but that was OK, there was nothing to see?

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-cannot-escape-joe-hockeys-budget-20140829-10a4nt.html#ixzz3BpXY1WdG

    Remember, although the Ambassador has an impressive resume, the US does not make these appointments on the basis of international or diplomatic expertise —

    http://canberra.usembassy.gov/ambassador.html

    It’s quite possible, given his resume, that he’s never actually dealt with a Foreign Minister before…

  44. zoomster

    [“That was a high-risk strategy.
    No, sorry, it wasn’t.]
    Damn right it wasn’t . Russia was the only veto risk and Putin had from the time he spoke to the Dutch PM had called for such action. His only proviso was the wording did not blame anyone before the investigation took place.

    Mind you if she was an incompetent klutz then her personally going really was high risk 😉

  46. JBishop is doing an ok job in the sense that Downer did an ok job, any of the other FM’s we’ve had in the last 30 years make her look like a clown.

  48. [ Memories of the World’s Greatest Shadow Treasurer:

    Weekend reports suggested Ms Bishop would be forced to stand aside or risk being ousted as deputy leader in a party room spill.

    Seen as a sin by her party detractors, and mercilessly exploited by the Government, is her recent quote in which she allegedly advised the Government to “wait and see” how bad the economy became before acting.

    She actually said the Government should bring in a small stimulus package first and “wait and see” how it worked before acting further.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/bishops-move-she-may-go-or-be-pushed-20090214-87md.html#ixzz23bgNt12D

  49. Davidwh

    “”Personally I think J Bishop is doing a good job despite the chaos around her.””

    You should have watched her on the Lib front bench when in opposition, she is one really nasty piece of work!!!

  50. [ Boerwar
    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    Bishop has issued around 40 press releases since 18 September. Of these one relates to Indonesia.

    Since she irritated the buggery out of Natalegawa by verballing their ‘private’ meetings and he retaliated by releasing the meeting notes, Bishop has been playing second fiddle to Abbott in the handling of the Australian-Indonesian relationship, or lack thereof.

    The Indonesians would have, prior to the election of the Abbott Government, done their homework.

    Their Bishop folder would, inevitably, have noted four things:

    (1) that Bishop power broker by virtue of the strength of the Western Australian representation.

    (2) that Bishop was a serial failure as shadow spokesperson before she was given foreign affairs

    (3) that Bishop was described by Sheridan as wtte, our worst shadow spokesperson for foreign affairs ever

    (4) that Bishop was the person who stated wtte that the then-Opposition’s boat policies would succeed regardless of what the Indonesians think.

    In other words, Bishop is a walking, talking insult to the Indonesians.

    That lesson has now been learned by the Abbott Government – they are not letting her near the place.

    Instead they have decided to deploy the A-team: Abbott. ]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/11/21/bludgertrack-52-7-47-3-to-coalition-2/?comment_page=21/#comment-1850331

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