BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 18 of 24
1 … 17 18 19 … 24

  1. Slut at one time was like the word bitch, a name for a female dog. The sexual inference of the word is that a bitch in heat will mate with any dog, and multiple dogs as many times as possible until she goes off heat, where upon she will bite the head off any male dog who tries to get near her.

    So calling a woman a slut meant she did not conform to the patriarchal ideal of the female, which is contained and controlled sexuality, with the choice of partners limited to the social, religious and legal conventions of the male dominated community.

    This rests on a fear of women exercising free choice to choose partners as they will, fathers for their children as they think best, and moving in and out of relationships at will, or having many relationships at once, and underpins many religious and social mores that force women into stereotypes. The Western world choice is between the virtuous Mother Mary or Mary Magdalene, the prostitute. Or whatever equivalents there are in whatever religion.

    So I couldn’t care less how KJ expresses her sexuality. I do care about what she did with union money, and the connections that may have been involved.

  2. Have to say it’s HUGELY gratifying seeing these slimy hard right Lib politicians scurrying like cockroaches away from that stupid World Families Congress (or whatever it’s called) in Melbourne. Obviously it’s killing them not to go but someone with two brain cells to rub together higher up the chain has obviously told them in no uncertain terms to flee.

    Seriously, when I read that story in The Age I was grinning from ear to ear.

  3. 852

    That would be because they are now being hosted by Catch the Fire Ministries. They are politically radioactive after the comments describing Black Saturday as god`s revenge for pro-choice law reform.

    I think is is actually potentially bad that the socially conservative Liberals will get less attention about their out of touch with the mainstream views on social issues because they will not be attending.

  4. Tom

    Catch the Fire Ministries has been listed as a sponsor of this event since the very beginning. I am not one for conspiracy theories but it’s obvious to me these slimy wankers are just using the change of venue to a CtF property as a convenient pretext to extricate themselves on orders from those higher up in the Liberal Party. The fact they ALL withdrew at the same time is enough for me to be almost certain this is what happened.

    With any luck in a few days a leak will come out that will name the clever person who issued this directive.

  6. That any Australian politician of any tribe should even contemplate going to a meeting of such a revolting social engineering mob of religious bigots and nutters like CTF is strong proof we need to clean out our parliament with a good dose of Epsom salts. We have a lot of crap bunging up the works with old compacted dogmas and they are wasting a lot of time and energy needed to address our very urgent climate emergency. It is time to vote the dinosaurs out.

  7. [Muslim leaders say they have been left disappointed by a meeting with Attorney-General George Brandis to discuss proposed anti-terror laws in Sydney.
    ..,
    A similar meeting will be held in Melbourne next week.]

  9. [Haha!! Abbott laying down some more hilarious culture war rubbish.]

    As you say: laugh them out of town. They don’t represent us. They are delusional.

  12. Dunno if this got posted already – was in today’s West.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/24842599/labor-back-in-business-in-wa/

    [ Labor’s pollster UMR surveyed about 600 people in Hasluck on August 16-17 and found a 9 per cent swing against the Government.

    On primary vote, Labor was sitting on 40 per cent, with the coalition on 37 per cent. This translated to a two-party split of 54-46 in favour of the ALP, a near reversal of last year’s election result when Liberal Ken Wyatt held the seat.

    An aggregation of all public polling in WA for the three months to July, that takes in the post-Budget period, found there had been a 12-point rise in primary support for the ALP in the State.

    This translated to a 7.7 per cent swing to the ALP on two-party preferred status. ]

    12% up on primaries and only 7.7% up on 2pp would suggest the Greens have gone down after their implausibly good results after the senate re-election. That makes plenty of sense.

    On current boundaries, a 7.7% swing would give Labor back Hasluck, Swan and Cowan (the three seats mentioned in the article). Since there’ll be a redistribution before then, assuming the new seat is in outer southern Perth, that’s up for grabs too. 7 out of 16 is quite reasonable.

  18. Brandis trying to win friends or enemies?

    [Muslim leaders say they have been left disappointed by a meeting with Attorney-General George Brandis to discuss proposed anti-terror laws in Sydney.

    Attendees said they were frustrated that Senator Brandis showed up almost an hour late, leaving them just 30 minutes to review the draft legislation and offer feedback.

    Hany Amer, a spokesman for 15 Muslim and community groups, said the meeting “proved to be disappointing”.

    “Despite our better judgement and facing considerable pressure to disengage, we attended in the hope of being proven wrong,” he said.]

  28. Sorry Folks – I am NO BK ….needs 2/3 people to replace him – but hope that fills in a small spot for him this morning – others please add other articles,cartoons etc

  34. [ mari

    Hi badcat, you are doing a great job as an apprentice to our wonderful BK
    ]

    ———————————————

    Hi Mari – Thanks for helping as usual. Its impossible for us to replace BK – but hope he enjoys his day or two off.

    Hopefully you can do Sunday on your own as Swap Meet beckons …..

  35. Totally agree with your comments regarding teaching, fran, so thanks for that.

    Ironically, despite the ‘zoomster is a teacher’ meme that some people seem to use as a prism for all my posts, I’m really not one at the moment and have only worked casually for many, many years. Of course, it’s my profession and my main area of training, but I’m more a politician than I am a teacher, and I’m hardly even that at present.

  40. Hey

    Rather than banning Putin I suggest we get Tony and Vlad to challenge each other in a crocodile wrestle. The media will love it and one or both might get eaten.

  41. One meeting, arrives late, half an hour to discuss anti-terror response.

    Do Brandis, Pyne, Dutton even understand what ‘consultation’ means?

  45. lizzie

    there’s an old saying that ‘punctuality is the courtesy of princes’.

    In other words, because everyone is waiting on your pleasure, and no one will criticise you for being late, there’s more of a responsibility on you to be on time.

    (I used to reflect a lot on this, when some function hadn’t got underway because not only was Sophie M half an hour or more late, but she hadn’t bothered to notify the event organisers…)

    Abbott’s treatment of the party room – and now of his Ministers – underlines this point.

  47. zoomster

    In this case lack of punctuality by a politician has had an adverse impact on our national security.

    While Rudd was late to many functions I do not think he at any time let it impact on national security, Important especially as Foreign Minister when lack of punctuality could have indeed have impacted on national security

  49. [Julie Bishop is one of the very best foreign affairs ministers among the world’s 196 nations, according to the US ambassador to Australia.]

    She speaks English?

    Seriously, a few of her comments have indicated a less aggressive promotion of war than Abbott shows. But will he listen to a woman?

Comments Page 18 of 24
1 … 17 18 19 … 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *