BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  1. Anyone who would use “statesman” in the same sentence as “Abbott” either doesn’t understand the meaning of the word or is seriously deluded. Talk about polishing the turd.

  2. Much of ISIS military success in Iraq was on the back of a Sunni revolt against the sectarian Maliki. Will the US and Baghdad take up this offer ?

    [ Sunni rebels ‘ready to turn on Islamic State’

    The rebels, including tribal militants and former army personnel organised in military councils throughout the Sunni areas, see American and international guarantees as crucial to any such deal.

    “We don’t want guns from the Americans, we want a real political solution, which the US should impose on those people it installed in the Green Zone,” said Abu Muhammad al-Zubaai, referring to the Iraqi political leaders who took over after the US-led occupation in 2003.

    “The IS problem would end. If they guarantee us this solution, we’ll guarantee to get rid of IS,” said Mr al-Zubaai, a tribal leader from Anbar province speaking on behalf of the rebels, using a nom de guerre.
    The tribal and military rebels, who had been fighting government forces since January, played a role in the spectacular advances scored after IS ……the Sunni rebels, who say they can mobilise 90% of the tribes, believe that only they can tackle IS, ]
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28978941

  3. More Sheridan from 2009 regarding Julie Bishop’s capabilities in Foreign Affairs, regarding her response to the Stern Hu affair (Rio Tinto executive arrested in China):

    [ “The opposition’s response, through Julie Bishop, was pathetic.

    It was internally contradictory, unprincipled, amoral beyond even the exigencies of parliamentary hypocrisy and profoundly stupid.

    Bishop was a dud shadow treasurer and is now a dud foreign affairs spokeswoman.

    But her response on China betokens a much broader crisis for the opposition.

    The Liberal Party is now not so much a political movement as a collection of unemployed former ministers in search of a public service to do their thinking for them.”]

    Damning stuff.

  4. What a liar:

    Josh Taylor @joshgnosis · 32m

    PM Tony Abbott says the NBN has achieved as much in the last 12 months as it did in the 4 years prior.

  5. [The Liberal Party is now not so much a political movement as a collection of unemployed former ministers in search of a public service to do their thinking for them.”]

    Perhaps the most prescient thing Sheridan has ever written.

  6. @Centre/958

    But they only have a couple customers on FTTN and 1 billion in losses, I thought Coalition Party were good at economics?

  7. zoid

    The very biggest losers because of the internet are News Ltd.

    Who will R.I.P. first, The Australian and The Daily Toilet Paper or the Greens?

    My money would still be on the Full Mooners but it will be close.

  8. Holden should have produced the 4 cylinder Commodore only. Most people only need to go at 60 kph. It would have been a bit cheaper. Think how many billions better off they would be now.

  9. AA

    He has cut the carbon tax and lowered the rate of inflation very slightly but has left the budget in a diabolically worse position than Labor.

    That is a FACT so the Liberal stooges can go give themselves a Tod Carney.

  10. [ confessions
    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    The Liberal Party is now not so much a political movement as a collection of unemployed former ministers in search of a public service to do their thinking for them.”

    Perhaps the most prescient thing Sheridan has ever written. ]

    Of course the IPA did a lot of the tories thinking as well – and homework.

  11. [ Centre
    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Who will R.I.P. first, The Australian and The Daily Toilet Paper or the Greens?

    My money would still be on the Full Mooners but it will be close. ]

    PUP are dishing out dollops of ‘relevance deprivation syndrome’ to the Greens – in that the greens aren’t calling the shots in the senate like they have in the past.

    Unless clive seriously stumbles he may even pick up more senate numbers.

    But who knows – lots of water to flow under the bridge before future election(s).

  12. RM

    Tell that to those who use the Motorways with speeds up to 120kph 😛

    zoid

    Maybe they could prolong their death with a leadership change. With Christine Milne as leader…not long now!

    AA

    Of course, I meant the Monkey has abolished the carbon tax @ 966.

  13. Dave

    I reckon you could count on one hand the number of bludgers that would admit that the PUP has been more of an assistance to Labor than the Greens by miles in the last 7 years.

  14. California Government To Regulate Groundwater For 1st Time As California Drought Becomes “Race To The Bottom”

    [ The ongoing disaster that is the drought in the West is leaving wells dry across California – which account for up to 60% of water usage.

    As WSJ reports, as groundwater levels plunge (100 feet or more lower than norm), wells are being driven further and further into the earth (500 feet in some cases) forcing the state legislature is considering regulating underground water for the first time.

    “We can’t continue to pump groundwater at the rates we are and expect it to continue in the future,” warns one engineer ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-29/government-regulate-groundwater-1st-time-california-drought-becomes-race-bottom

  15. [ Centre
    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    Dave

    I reckon you could count on one hand the number of bludgers that would admit that the PUP has been more of an assistance to Labor than the Greens by miles in the last 7 years. ]

    The problem is clive is a wild card who can say or do anything at anytime as people are finding out.

    In Qld and elsewhere he could become a problem for Labor if he picks up voters turning away from abbott and who might have otherwise returned to Labor.

    Currently he is ankle tapping abbott and making the tories look incompetent. The tories are also doing a good job at making themselves look incompetent.

    3rd and 4th raters and a leader who as yet hasn’t come under much media scrutiny.

  16. @Centre/973

    Your a n00b Centre.

    Mining sector is already winding down, they are destroying themselves, because the way they treat the profits.

  17. AA

    Of course, I meant the Monkey has abolished the carbon tax @ 966.

    But increased fuel excise that Abbott described as a “carbon tax on steroids”

    So the carbon tax is replaced with a carbon tax on steroids

  18. zoid @ 977

    And you call me a noob – hilarious.

    Surely even you should know that the Greens would love nothing more than to close the coal industry.

  19. Wouldn’t it be great of someone found an energy source that did not require the destruction of the environment and pollution of the atmosphere.

  20. [ dave

    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Yep.

    Seems the US in general can’t take a trick atm.
    ]

    ————————————————-

    badcat pulls pin from grenade and throws it into PB lunch room … and runs away fast before Centre and Dio get their mitts on him ….

    … but in the US next weekend all will be fine again – because REAL football starts – NFL kicks off on Sept 4th – and this year its on 7mate …..

  21. Well I am a happy soul, had coffee this morning , a long session over 2 hours. There were only 6 of us ths time, all Tory voters except me, one has switched(never vote LNP while TA, JH CP there) the other 4 completely disillusioned by this govt. Not saying they will vote ALP but won’t take much 😀 One of them was an LNP member but no longer she told me.

  22. But increased fuel excise that Abbott described as a “carbon tax on steroids”

    Tony Abbott seems to say whatever supports the case he’s trying to make, or whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear, pretty much without regard to objective reality or what he said to other people at other times.

  23. [ mari

    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Well I am a happy soul, had coffee this morning , a long session over 2 hours. There were only 6 of us ths time, all Tory voters except me, one has switched(never vote LNP while TA, JH CP there) the other 4 completely disillusioned by this govt. Not saying they will vote ALP but won’t take much One of them was an LNP member but no longer she told me.
    ]

    ——————————————

    I am sure your gentle hints and subtle messages are getting through, Mari 😉

  24. More on cameron –

    [ UK’s Cameron Goes Full Scaremonger: “We Will Be Fighting ISIS For Decades”

    Following his nation’s elevated terror threat level, UK Prime Minister David Cameron went full scaremonger:

    “We are in the middle of a generational struggle against a poisonous extremist ideology that I believe we will be fighting for years and probably decades.”

    Warning that “ISIS represents a greater threat than anything before,” (even Hitler?) he plans to introduce new laws to “make it easier to take people’s passports away.”

    We are reminded of Brandon Smith’s warnings of government commentary in coming weeks:

    …the goal will be to terrify you and those around you into seeking out a more powerful, more centralized government authority to protect your security…….]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-29/uks-cameron-goes-full-scaremonger-we-will-be-fighting-isis-decades

  25. badcat,

    I am trying to be very subtle agreeing with their complaints about the LNP and agreeing I am also completely disillusioned :devil: I am, they have no idea who I vote for,I can assure you this is a big step for them,sure they have always voted LNP, just hoping there are more like them in this electorate

  26. badcat

    How could anybody here take an interest in the NFL?

    We are about to witness one of the closest final series in the NRL of all time.

    Although if the Cockies win tonight, the big 3 will forge clear.

  27. [ mari
    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Well I am a happy soul, had coffee this morning , a long session over 2 hours. There were only 6 of us ths time, all Tory voters except me, one has switched(never vote LNP while TA, JH CP there) the other 4 completely disillusioned by this govt.

    Not saying they will vote ALP but won’t take much 😀 One of them was an LNP member but no longer she told me. ]

    Mari, would the “Voters are getting what they voted for approach” work do you think ?

    Also reminders that most people had serious doubts about abbott anyway, but still voted for him and the tories ?

    BB posted the following points yesterday which might *stimulate* conversations with your friends, maybe put it on your tablet or mobile phone for reference –

    [ Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, August 28, 2014 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    Rising unemployment.

    Budget stalled.

    Entire industries closing down.

    Ministers attacking the poor and the disabled.

    An attempted revival of the abortion debate.

    Sabres being rattled for yet another adventure in Iraq.

    Useless overseas trips wasting taxpayers’ money.

    The Treasurer so much of a laughing stock that he avoids Question Time.

    Nepotism, jobs for the boys, foxes put in charge of the hen house, travel rorts.

    10 Liberal MLAs either in the cross-bench sin bin or out of parliament altogether.

    The ABC victimized to the tune of 10% of its entire budget. Hundreds of promises broken.

    Ideological blustering attempted to be turned into bad law.

    Qantas loses over $2 billion.

    All in less than one year. ]

  28. Mari

    On local issues you could do Labor says this. PUP says this Greens say this conversation.

    Any party will do as long as its not LNP out your way. That way you can keep your cover but get your friends thinking about other parties

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