ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 24
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  1. Abbott has said that the budget will be passed by the Senate 😯

    LOL

    Not a happy chappy

    the chimpanzee

    just take it

    to a double D

  2. Re Don @742: also wind back superannuation tax concessions for higher income earners back to where they are compensated for not drawing the age pension, phase out negative gearing over several years, ditto the CGT tax concession

  3. Capital gains tax on investments and securities should be abolished altogether – with the exception of residential property.

    That would stabilise house prices as they are approaching or are at dangerously high levels.

  4. [ Player One
    Posted Sunday, August 24, 2014 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

    Budget negotiations: Higher taxes may be forced if Senate stand-off continues, Mathias Cormann says

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-24/tax-rises-an-option-as-budget-stalls-cormann-says/5692434

    I wonder if this was the plan all along?

    Nah! They’re not that clever. ]

    They are playing silly buggers and they should be called on it.

    – They *threaten* tax increases because the Senate won’t pass a number of other matters.

    – Why would that same Senate pass any tax increase, unless its aimed at the wealthy ?

    – If the tories somehow do something sneaky to try and get around the Senate like including stuff in supply bills (probably not permitted anyway) then the Senate will probably dig their heels in ever more.

    Cormann and Pyne are disliked by voters, but be that as it may, they are talking crap and they will be called out yet again.

    The Senators in question are ‘safe’ for 8 years unless abbott goes DD which could even see him lose office or get a worse Senate.

    Labor just need to use abbott’s tactics back on him – he is PM and its his government, his problem and he was the one with the big mouth prior to the election.

  5. [ KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Sunday, August 24, 2014 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    As I say ad nauseum, the Libs are going to take 15% GST to their first bid for re-election (just like Johnny) as a circuit-breaker. ]

    No doubt that ‘was’ the plan.

    If they are still on the nose whenever the election is – they might go to water?

    I doubt they would risk losing government on it.

    The usual tricks aren’t working like they used to.

    abbott is no howard either.

  6. Hmmm interesting that two of the big bookies have such differing prices for the next federal election.

    LNP 1.67
    ALP 2.20

    and

    LNP 1.50
    ALP 2.50

    Labor supporters should have a little spring in their step at those odds, they’re in with a shot.

  10. Courtesy of a soft draw centre, swans are doing ok.
    Mind you they could still lose top spot to the mighty hawks next week.
    That said I reckon Freo will beat Sydney in Sydney week one if it pans out that way. 😛

  13. BW

    Out of interest if Assad and his forces are destroyed where do you plan to house the 2.5 million allawi? they sure as hell wil not be able to live in a Sunni Syria, Iraq,Jordan or Egypt and there is not room in Lebanon. I know how about we take over Queanbeyan for an Allawi homeland – and surrounds of course.

  14. [The government’s budget sales pitch appears to have moved into a passive aggressive phase.

    It began with the “budget emergency” – the repeated insistence that the need to repair the budget bottom line was so dire and immediate that the Senate had no choice but to immediately pass exactly this package of spending cuts and revenue increases.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/24/coalitions-budget-pitch-moves-from-charm-offensive-to-passive-aggression

  15. 753

    Capital gain is income. There is no reason for capital gain to be exempt from income. Taxing capital gain is even more progressive than taxing work income because there are lots of low income workers who have work income but not capital gain.

  17. Tom the first and best@765

    753

    Capital gain is income. There is no reason for capital gain to be exempt from income. Taxing capital gain is even more progressive than taxing work income because there are lots of low income workers who have work income but not capital gain.

    Economics FAIL!
    Prices of assets can rise and fall and any gain is not realised until they are sold.
    Dividends are income as is rent.

  22. [The government’s budget sales pitch appears to have moved into a passive aggressive phase.]

    “Appears”?

    The sales pitch has been in passive aggressive mode for months, with successive ministers all taking their shot at trying to spruik it from whatever angle.

    Culminating the last week or so in Joe wailing on the arses of workers, piously declaring their lesser reliance on their cars, to today with Cormann announcing the possibility of new taxes if the budget isn’t passed through parliament.

    If Charlie Daniels is ever looking for woe-is-me fodder for his music inspiration, he’d have a plethora of material to work with just with Joe and Mattias and Tony alone.

  30. The Government is embarking on a ‘reform’ program that they have made no attempt to sell. It has nothing to do with ‘fixing’ the budget, which is mostly in the state it is because of the Howard Government.

    So they have been ditching revenue to abolish taxes their backers don’t like, ditched Labor’s savings measures for the same reason, attempting to commence the dismantling of Medicare, the privatisation of the delivery of health and education services and the replacement social security with low-paid work (i.e. well below the current minimum wage). It’s ideology, nothing to do with budgetary issues.

    They want to create an environment most friendly to their big business backers. They are taking us along the US route. And the USA is chronically in deficit with a massive national debt that can never be repaid.

  32. davidwh@777

    You are a bit fired up tonight bemused aka 769

    No more than usual.
    Always ready to give a Green or a Lib a bit of biffo.
    Mad Lib is not around at the moment. 😉

  33. Tom

    The number thing is becoming a little self-indulgent and pious.

    Please consider another way of responding to posters.

    Consider the square bracket quote function.

  34. Tom first reckons the family home should attract CGT – after all, he reckons that that is income also.

    Mooners are out in force…

  36. Darren Laver@783

    Tom

    The number thing is becoming a little self-indulgent and pious.

    Please consider another way of responding to posters.

    Consider the square bracket quote function.

    Tom could use cccp, the details of which I just supplied to Dave.

  37. bemused

    [Economics FAIL!
    Prices of assets can rise and fall and any gain is not realised until they are sold.
    Dividends are income as is rent.]

    Capital gain is profit and should be taxed when realised. TtFaB got the semantics wrong, but there’s no reason why capital gain should not be taxed in the same way as income once it is realised.

  38. Interesting that those with the strongest reaction to the numbers vs screen name thing are themselves the ones most likely to refer to other commenters in abusive name calling, or juvenile re-workings of a commenter’s screen name, ie Mad Lib. And not just one-off, but repeated discretions.

  41. Fran Barlow@787

    bemused

    Economics FAIL!
    Prices of assets can rise and fall and any gain is not realised until they are sold.
    Dividends are income as is rent.


    Capital gain is profit and should be taxed when realised. TtFaB got the semantics wrong, but there’s no reason why capital gain should not be taxed in the same way as income once it is realised.

    TTFAB gets most things wrong, even my name and the names of all others. 😀

  43. [Birney the latest comeback kid? Where will he contest?]

    He was mentioned in relation to South Perth once upon a time, and John McGrath will be 69 when the next election is held.

  44. Fran stick to tea leaves.

    Bemused is absolutely economically spot on. Dividends, interest or rent are INCOME as they are generated from assets.

    Profits are only taxed with businesses.

  45. [They want to create an environment most friendly to their big business backers. They are taking us along the US route.]

    Yep, this govt is all about ideology over the national interest.

    I can’t remember who it was this morning who said that Abbott’s govt has essentially blown its newly elected govt capital on silly, meaningless culture style war issues like the 18c and ABC cuts. Neither of which mean dick to your average voter, but this mob shook that tree for all it was worth.

    I guess what goes around comes around. And this mob flung it around with glee in the last parliament so it’s nice to see it coming back around to engulf them in govt. Long may it stick.

  47. 791

    I do not get the names wrong. I have a watertight strategy for that, don`t use them and instead use numbers.

  48. Capital gains are income when realised and should, in my opinion, be treated as such. Not taxing them or applying significant discounts will only encourage accounting tricks to disguise income as capital gains, increasing the leakage from the tax system and contributing to our ‘debt and deficit’ problems. And the hole has to be filled by PAYG taxpayers and those who earn bank interest and income.

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