ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. William:

    You don’t see the Member for Swan Hills retiring in 2017? From memory he’d be of a similar age to McGrath?

  2. 799

    That happens rarely these days (almost not snipping and when it does happen the post number usually remains these days). Just using names does not identify which of the commenter`s comments is being replied to. Commenters having multiple comments on a page is far more common than numbers changing.

  4. Steve

    No, capital gains is not income, capital gains is a profit. For capital gains to be an income – losses would not be able to occur.

    Which of course losses do occur and mind you, are not able to be matched for tax purposes until a gain is made – crazy!

  7. fess –

    [ Abbott’s govt has essentially blown its newly elected govt capital on silly, meaningless culture style war issues like the 18c and ABC cuts. Neither of which mean dick to your average voter, but this mob shook that tree for all it was worth. ]

    Its whole narrative is stuffed as evident by the people who are offside and facing a GST hike and its broadening.

    Pyne as a salesman – come on 🙂

    Its pretty hard to see a competent one amongst them, including turnbull – determined to impose a fifth rate NBN.

    The world moves on – Australia goes backwards under the tories.

    But they are tories, incompetence comes with the turf.

    Just keep hockey and corman where they are!!

  16. [Pyne as a salesman – come on 🙂 ]

    Was at a board meeting during the week of an early childhood learning facility. Apparently Pyne was down here either before the election or not long after, and met with early years professionals.

    What he said has apparently stuck with my fellow board members who got in his face about funding for early education. They still remember Pyne’s response: “We’ll just increase the education spend when they’re in high school’.

    Doesn’t get it, and hence earned the scorn of my fellow colleagues.

  18. Re James J @803: those numbers don’t seem to add up:
    ALP 35
    Green: 11. About 80% to the ALP. Let’s say 8.5.
    Other: 9. About 40% to the ALP. LET’s say 3.5.

    This gives 2PP of 53:47 to the LNP.

  19. Briefly: Pyne is the Minister Against Education, Hunt is the Minister against the environment. Dutton is the Minister against health (except for those on high incomes). Andrews is the Minister against Social Security.

  20. [They still remember Pyne’s response: “We’ll just increase the education spend when they’re in high school’.

    Doesn’t get it, and hence earned the scorn of my fellow colleagues. ]

    They have no intention of *getting it*. They never did.

    They march to the the drum of the IPA. Voters are just there to be gamed.

    At least Labor tried to help most in society.

  24. And while Abetz isn’t the minister against industrial relations, he is the minister against workers. Bishop junior appears to be a passably competent Foreign Minister, but only compared to the rest of a dud team.

  26. briefly:

    Indeed! If Pyne were a Labor minister he’d be frequently lampooned as just another hack with no ‘real world’ experience.

  27. Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, August 24, 2014 at 1:34 pm | PERMALINK
    No more guessing: why Murdoch anti-#NBN: protects Foxtel which pays for print. http://stevej-on-nbn.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-numbers-are-in-now-we-know-why.html … .@lynlinking @sortius @doclach

    Geez, I’ve been saying that for two years. But then, I’m not a celebrity tech head.

    Well, actually, BB, you weren’t saying that for two years. You were following the conversation begun between me and victoria over three years ago.

    I don’t mind if you want to take over MY take on what was going to happen, as long as you acknowledge it, but to pretend that you came up with the idea is a bit sad.

    Here’s what happened.

    I stumbled across a website where an unknown person predicted a scenario.

    I evaluated what this person had to say: And, thinking he was correct in his assumptions, conveyed it to the PB website.

    That is, that an NBN would undermine Rupert Murdoch’s current business model.

    So, give credit where it is due. Not to me, but to the unknown person on an IT website that I didn’t name.

  29. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll VIC State Primary Votes: LIB 32 (-1) NAT 3 (-1) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 16 (0) #springst #auspol

  31. This government is the worst Ive ever seen in nearly 40 years of folllowing OZ politics.

    IF we dont get our way, we’ll break essential R&D which helps drive the innovative sectors of our national economy. We’ll just chop it!

    If we dont get our way,we’ll do the opposite of what we always say is our ‘core philosophy’ and raise taxes!

    Step back for a second: these people are bumbling boobies. Clueless goofs, with a nasty nullying streak. Its amateur hour.

  32. [#Newspoll VIC State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-1) ALP 55 (+1) #springst]

    Like Ive said for ages: youre screwed Napthine. Stop wasting our taxes on promoting your dead government.

    And VIC ALP – say no to east-west link. Give fair warning. No one wants it,so its very low risk.

  34. Back to Dee@703 and the statement from Mathias Cormann…

    [“If we stay on a spending growth trajectory that takes us to 26.5 per cent of the share of GDP, when tax revenue on average over the last 20 years was 22.4 per cent of the share of GDP and you don’t want to balance the books by reducing spending, then the only alternative to balance the books is to increase taxes,” Senator Cormann said.]

    I looked up these numbers in the 2014/15 budget.

    First, he’s wrong about the share of tax; the average he gives is the average tax receipts of the *Labor* government’s budgets. If we go back 20 years and include Howard’s and part of Keating’s years the average goes up to 24%.

    Second, why is spending going up to 26.5% of GDP? That’s not in the forward estimates, and it’s more than Labor spent at their peak… If the structural problem is that bad then shouldn’t we address that issue rather than pretending a “temporary ‘Labor bad!’ levy” is a fix?

  35. Re Minhoff @834: it’s always best to assume that any statement from a member of the Abbott Government is a farrago of disinformation, half truths and outright lies flung together to support whatever case their trying to push.

  46. So the OH and I went to Ballarat over the weekend and missed that whole discussion about PR and solar on rooftops VS large scale solar. Ah well.

    And it looks like tough times for Napthine.

    I still don’t know how some of you cope with reading comments here on your mobile. Very unwieldy for me.

  48. Morning all

    This is precisely what needs to be sorted out in the construction industry

    [Eight of Australia’s biggest construction projects are being probed for the existence of phoenix scams, with regulators preparing to file criminal charges.

    The tax office, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the Fair Work Building and Construction inspectorate are co-operating on the problem of contractors sending their companies into liquidation to avoid debts to employees, the tax office and others.]

    http://www.dailylife.com.au/business/criminal-charges-loom-in-phoenix-scams-probe-on-big-construction-projects-20140824-107stq.html

  49. Raaraa

    You went to Ballarat?

    Hearing of someone doing this is a first for me.

    I’ve known people who have left Ballarat but not the opposite.

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