Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition in NSW

After a bruising couple of weeks at ICAC, a Galaxy poll brings some better news for the Baird government.

James J relates that a Galaxy Research poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, presumably to appear in tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph, has a surprisingly strong showing for the Baird government in view of its recent travails, with the Coalition leading Labor 55-45 on two-party preferred. This compares with 53-47 in the last such poll in May. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 899. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

22 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. Here is the last Galaxy Poll, from May 2014. Shows the last couple of polls and the 2011 election TPP.

    The last bi-monthly NSW Newspoll was sampled over May-June, and it was 57-43 to the L/NP, so they’ve been higher not that long ago. The previous Galaxy 53-47 was perhaps a recent ICAC bad news low point.

    Still, the ALP would make gains on this poll, after all the last NSW election was 64% TPP to the L/NP.

  2. Leader best able to tackle corruption: Baird 43, Robertson 15, Uncommitted 42

    Power privatization: 38% in favour, 53% opposed

  3. Seems Libs are getting stronger everywhere, any theories ?

    Putting it down to national security seems a bit of a stretch.

    Lib polies still performing badly, people still publicly protesting them, polls saying something else…

  4. The ALP thinks it has dealt with its corruption problem because Obeid and McDonald have gone. Problem is, too many people who must have known what they were like are still in the party. And in my view, they are almost as culpable. Until there’s been a thorough purge of such types, lots of people won’t vote ALP.

    Also, with one or two exceptions, the corruption in the Liberal Party seems to have been driven more by a desire for political advantage, rather than sheer greed. Some voters may find that less objectionable.

    [Baird and Labor are poles apart: Premier shrugs off ICAC scandal and power sale, set to deliver a second Coalition election victory next March
    August 25, 2014 12:00AM
    Andrew Clennell State Political Editor
    The Daily Telegraph]
    Chart 1

    Chart 2

  6. Unfortunately in what should be a time of political gain for the NSW ALP given the current ICAC revelations, the ghosts of Tripodi and Roozendaal still loom large for the electorate.
    Their presence on the nightly news for most of the last week in relation to their treachery against their own colleague just reminded the punters that whilst the libs were also up to their necks in it the ALP were seemingly far worse and had been doing it for far longer.

  7. “It helps that John Robertson appears unelectable.”

    Ouch, the last line from the article Leroy linked, from Galaxy pollster David Briggs in relation to John Robertson.
    Sadly it’s probably true. Robbo is seen as a decent plodder with a touch too much of the old style unionist about him.
    Maybe Luke Foley or Linda McBurney would achieve better cut through.

  8. The poll suggests ALP would win 17 seats.

    An opportunity of a generation to bring talent into the parliament. Will it be taken or wasted?

  9. Steve Whan is not the Member for Monaro. He is member of the NSW Upper House. He lost his seat in 2011.

    And its Linda Burney, not McBurney (sic). For an ALP influenced site, you guys don’t know the state of play very well…..

  10. Sadly it’s probably true. Robbo is seen as a decent plodder with a touch too much of the old style unionist about him

    I don’t think Robertson is seen as a decent plodder. More like the creature of Obeid/Tripodi/Roozendaal. Put in to ensure that there is a lot of window dressing but not much reform.

  11. An opportunity of a generation to bring talent into the parliament. Will it be taken or wasted?

    You know the answer – why would anyone with talent be seen next to this mob of union hacks, time servers and guys constantly looking for a sweetener?

  12. Moderate, I think Kakuru’s suggestion is that Steve Whan will be back as member for Monaro at the election, for which he will indeed be the candidate, and will then be able to replace Robertson as leader. McBurney I will have to grant you, unless Henry’s implication is that she is a stooge for US cultural imperialism.

  13. ICAC is a long way from finished with the libs. I was told today by a MLA that there is another lib, just North of the current mob being investigated, in deep doodah

  14. When in doubt…

    [Sharpe’s Brief just finished. Watson’s back up & asking about Buildev’s previous donations to the ALP. Mark Arbib’s name just came up]

  15. Moderate, the words you put in quotation marks are not what was said, which is to say that they don’t belong in quotation marks. What was said was “Steve Whan as the next leader, as the Member for Monaro”. Whether you’re capable of comprehending this or, as it seems, not, it is entirely possible for this formulation to encompass Whan being member for Monaro when, at some point in the future, he becomes leader.

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