ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. from the Eastman judgement

    [
    The appellant claimed (in the absence of the jury) that he had heard Mr Terracini have a verbal altercation with a person in the Courtroom shortly before the commencement of proceedings. He claimed that he heard Mr Terracini say ‘Don’t you stare at me like that you flea’. It would seem that this assertion was made by the appellant in the absence of counsel after Mr Terracini had informed the Court that all instructions had been terminated, although the transcript does not record the withdrawal of counsel.]

    Anyone who complains that the silks don’t earn their money has not sat in a courtroom 😉

  3. CTar:

    Poor Joe nothing. He and he alone is responsible for his embarrassing blunders, made worse by further blundering.

  5. I would be a bit sceptical about this result. As it happens, I was part of ReachTel’s sample, specified a first preference vote for a minor party, and wasn’t asked for a respondent-allocated later preference.

    Let’s see what it shows for the PUP primary vote. My guess is that a lot of votes for PUP now are definitely anti-government votes, potential flowing to the ALP, but that votes for PUP last year, before he nailed his populist colours to the mast, would have been much more likely to be conservative votes. So allocation of preferences based on 2013 could be misleading.

  7. Murdochracy plan working a treat – dump on Hockey bigtime as the “lone wolf”, distancing his mistakes as not part of the Government as a whole.

  8. It would seem from recent polls that Labour is still on about 52% 2PP. This might be just normal mid term unpopularity that Governments suffer.

  10. [Murdochracy plan working a treat – dump on Hockey bigtime as the “lone wolf”, distancing his mistakes as not part of the Government as a whole.]

    Hockey has done exceptionally well at making it all about him. No assistance from Rupesville needed on that front.

  11. 51-49 and nothing has gone right for the Libs. As I explained before my winter break it was clear that Shorten hasnt cut through. Oh well he has performed the first drop role – step into the light Burkey!

  12. Its a bit unfair to blame Hockey for the Budget, he was told what to do by Abbott who sat in on every Budget planning session.

    Unlike Howard, who Costello would not let see the Budget bottom line ’till it has gone to the Printers.

  16. rua:

    Yes, the budget is as much Abbott’s as it is Hockey’s.

    But Hockey’s failure to be able to convince voters of the necessity of the budget content for the country, combined with his silly remarks about poor people and driving and the digging in trying to defend them (even as recently as yesterday STILL justifying his original remarks) is ALL Hockey.

  17. confessions @ 13: Nothing in the content of the letter would suggest that it’s a fake, and the presence of a spelling mistake increases my confidence that it’s genuine.

  19. pedant:

    It’s such a glaringly obvious spelling error though. And considering how many people proof read something before the PM puts their signature (electronic or otherwise) to it, it seems pretty remarkable it wasn’t picked up.

    But I agree on the content of the letter. All that is SO today’s Liberal party.

  20. confessions @ 19: I still think it’s probably genuine. Nothing in the content otherwise stands out as satirical: it’s a straight reproduction of lines that have been in use for ages.

    And remember that the PM’s office managed to put out, and then had to pull back, that absurd press release about World War One and economic policy; which produced the memorable tweet from someone “At the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will be open for business”.

    Also, this is party political stuff, so the public service likely wouldn’t have been involved. Probably done by some dyslectic Young Liberal or IPA dropout in the PM’s Office.

  21. Looks like the Australian has become like the IPA — not serving the purpose displayed on their packaging, rather a heavily subsidised warehouse for Liberal figures who are between party jobs.

    A shameless sheltered workshop, as someone else said.

  23. pedant:

    You’re right, it’s highly likely to be real. And with all the other stuff you mention, what a poor reflection on Abbott’s office!

  24. MTBW

    I agree that Gillian Triggs is a very good HR Commissioner, a talented and capable woman.

    But today she was “outclassed” (probably wrong word????) by that rsole Morriscum.

    She was not in his class when it got down to the matter of fighting dirty / winner takes all / boots n all “discussions”.

    I am eagerly awaiting the day this prick who thinks he is accountable to no-one, and who thinks that anyone seeking transparency is the enemy, and who thinks he is god’s gift to the electorate, gets shafted.

    I don’t know who will be able to say to him “shut up you silly, immature and ignorant man and try using your brain and your conscience rather than your tongue”.

    Perhaps PJK could come out of retirement and do it.

    But today, especially in the bit where he overspoke her in arguing whether or not the detention centres were like Long Bay, he “won”, as usual. She shoulda done a Judge Judy on him “I’m the one getting paid to ask the questions… Your job is to answer them”.

    Morriscum is in dire need of a powerful and well publicised belittling.

  26. Come the day when Mr Morrison is diagnosed with a lingering and terminal disease, I will be prepared to believe that God exists.

  27. Bolt spit the dummy:

    [FOR God’s sake put the country out of this misery, Prime Minister. End these Budget negotiations now.

    Forget it. There will be no big breakthrough deal with the likes of crazy Clive Palmer and his banshee, Senator Jacqui Lambie, now talking of wanting missiles to stop an “invasion” by those “mongrels” in China.

    Nor will reckless Labor lift a finger to back the savings in your Budget, and the Greens are on another planet.

    Between the three of them, they’ve got the Senate locked up, so almost every contentious spending cut in your Budget is dead.

    The only question now is how long you want to let prize jerks humiliate you and trash the country’s good name.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/tony-this-budget-farce-has-gone-on-too-long/story-fni0ffxg-1227031149287 ]

    Greens, PUPs and Labor… oh the humanity!

  28. [Come the day when Mr Morrison is diagnosed with a lingering and terminal disease, I will be prepared to believe that God exists.]

    Not helpful. Defeat him at the ballot box, if you disagree with his policies and approach.

  32. I watched part of the Triggs v Morrison et al today. Triggs was way, way out of her depth.

    Triggs demonstrated a hapless inability to use incisive questioning, emoted as if emoting had rigour, and capped it off by allowing herself to be dragged into what was basically a moronic verbal dogfight with a pitbull. Just one example: who cares how many years Triggs was a lawyer?

    This was the first real opportunity for anyone in Australia to render Morrison at all accountable. And Triggs flubbed it comprehensively.

  34. [I watched part of the Triggs v Morrison et al today. Triggs was way, way out of her depth.
    Triggs demonstrated a hapless inability to use incisive questioning, emoted as if emoting had rigour, and capped it off by allowing herself to be dragged into what was basically a moronic verbal dogfight with a pitbull. Just one example: who cares how many years Triggs was a lawyer?
    This was the first real opportunity for anyone in Australia to render Morrison at all accountable. And Triggs flubbed it comprehensively.]

    Agreed, she came across as overly partisan and emotional — much like an Estimates Senator.

    Her side kick was a bit more measured and dare I say it, inquiring, and was therefore less flustered and elicited better evidence, in my view.

  35. [Come the day when Mr Morrison is diagnosed with a lingering and terminal disease, I will be prepared to believe that God exists.]
    pedant
    And I hope Kevin Andrews is there to see it happening with no legal alternative available.

  36. [and his banshee, Senator Jacqui Lambie, now talking of wanting missiles to stop an “invasion” by those “mongrels” in China.]

    This is where the rhetoric of Morrison and Abbott has gotten us. And Bolt would do well to sheet the blame back to those who upped the stakes in the first place. But no, instead he blames a newly elected Senator with no clue rather than the supposedly experienced legislators who have been in parliament for years.

    Love the Bolt squealing. What goes around, comes around babe. You of all people should know that by now.

  37. Watched the Triggs v Morrison today.

    If the right wing mob manage to stay in government for 10 years, they would still be blaming the Labor Govt.

    To gutless to take any responsibility. Morrison has had 11 months and still, when he has failed to do something its the fault of Labor.

    And then continuing with blame Labor theme, Contrarians today it was all Labors fault that the Liberals corruptly took donations from property developers. If Labor hadn’t changed the Rules it would all be OK.

    The simpletons can’t even accept responsibility when they break the rules. Like the pathetic spoiled little brats they are is all “miss miss its his fault I am a dick”

  40. Bolt is flirting with misogyny, not to speak of flirting with lese-truth, when he calls Lambie a ‘banshee’.

    Ms Lambie is clearly not a female whose wailing warns of a coming death in a house, if ever there were such, even in the bogs.

    In the interest of skirting the gender war, Bolt could, perhaps, have called Palmer a ‘banhee’.

    I note that Lambie has once again called for the foreign aid allocation to be gutted, presumably in order to build more biggus dickus missiles to stop 1.4 billion Yellow Peril Mongrels and Bastards in their tracks. That should do the trick.

    I do hope that Lambie will also call for the Team Mainland Australia to extend the principle of gutting foreign aid to all ungrateful bastards, including Tasmanians.

    I take it that Lambie believes that soft power is not well hung.

  43. [Port forty up before half time. Bye bye Blues. So sad.]

    I prefer gin to cure my blues — we all have our poison I suppose!

    Tawny port?

  47. I’d be inclined to give Shorten at least another Parliamentary session before I jumped to any conclusions about his “cut through”, given this has been a recess dominated by international issues where he had little opportunity to contribute.

    The floor of the House is where he needs to slice, because media will report Parliamentary debate far more thoroughly than winter break chaff.

  50. Confesions: I’m guessing that over time, as with many American usages, “restauranteur” will become the norm.

    On Shorten: has anyone given consideration to the possibility that this personal matter has been so distracting (surely) that he has been off his game these past few months?

    There were times when the Abbott government’s blundering left such a widen open opportunity that Shorten seemed to embrace half-heartedly at best – leading me now to wonder with hindsight whether this is part of the reason.

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