Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.
 |
| Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.
Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.
Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.
Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.
For those interested in nuclear disarmament, peace and regional security….
ICAN (International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons): http://www.icanw.org/campaign-news/ican-reveals-australias-plan-to-undermine-the-work-of-civil-society-for-a-ban-treaty/
[Australia is opposed to any moves to delegitimize the use or possession of nuclear weapons. It considers a ban on nuclear weapons to be incompatible with its continued reliance on US “extended nuclear deterrence”, which it claims “has provided security and stability in our region for more than 60 years and {has} underpinned regional prosperity”. Australia now hopes to steer other nations away from pursuing a ban on nuclear weapons, the documents reveal.]
Australia’s Disarmament Dilemma: Nuclear Umbrella or Nuclear-Free? by Professor Michael Hamel-Green:
http://nwp.ilpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/BP08_2014_AustraliasDilemma.pdf
[Morgan and Essential, not so much. The former seems to be on Benzadrine, the latter Mogadon.]
{golf clap}
imacca
One of the few amusing moments on Insiders was when Gerard opined solemnly that Abbott now has the status of a world leader.
kevjohnno@395
That is just hilarious and an inversion of the truth which is that they understand just too well.
[@egan_des 16m
LNP caught out using numerous fake Twitter accounts to spread propaganda. Your taxes at work.
#auspol http://m.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/twitter-spam-bots-not-mine-says-greg-hunt-20130121-2d295.html …” ]
Re polling bounce:
I think, as I said last night, that bounce from external exigencies largely depends on the longer-term polling trend. Howard got a bounce out of 9/11, but he had already recovered ground by then, and the leadership advantage he had head-to-head with Beazley likewise already established. There was some flocking to him, but he had done the hard work of establishing a place people could flock to.
In the current environment I am much less inclined to think that there will be a sizeable part of the electorate that is a bit grumpy with the government but sees Abbott as the safe pair of hands on these foundational matters. My prediction: any bounce will be hard to distinguish from noise.
RULES FOR FORUMS/BLOGS
Rule 1: Forum/Blog owner makes the rules.
I think that covers it.
William Bowe@298
Go on … you know you want to …
My final word on the subject. In one sense, it’s true that my charge of Thomas Paine being the dumbest person ever to post here was unfair. His problem is more specific: a big part of his motivation in posting is to cause aggravation to people he doesn’t like, and this causes him to inflate whatever kernel of a worthwhile point he might have to make far beyond the boundaries of reason. A good example was his assertion yesterday that “the problems in the Ukraine were 100% created and funded by the US”. Perhaps my imagination is failing me and I’m giving him too much credit, but I simply don’t see how anyone could be dumb enough to think this. As he so often did during the Rudd-Gillard wars, his determination to cause offence to those on the other side of the argument caused him to lose sight entirely of the sheer stupidity of what he was saying.
The bottom line here is that if I’m not justified in banning him on grounds of what I earlier identified as “inexcusable stupidity”, I am certainly justified in doing so on the grounds of trolling – a much abused word that really does apply in his case.
SBS news is making me cry, so I’d like some distraction…
William has Fairfax asked you to do polling for them? Or have you suggested it?
Uh … no.
bemused@382
TP’s nonsense really isn’t any different than the infowars-esque nuttery found all over the internet and I’ve seen more than enough of that to last me a few lifetimes.
@Lizzie/405
Didn’t LNP previously get caught for doing Twitter spam? Probably the same bunch.
[Voters just love being told they don’t understand.]
Indeed. Balloon, lead.
So many observations, like: where the fk are the media advisors? Is that the best they can do? Surely we’ve seen this so many times. Even if they don’t believe a word of it the rebuffed leader surely *has* to come out and say “We believe in our fundamental plan, but clearly we’ve got sone things wrong. The voters have said so and we’re going to sit down as a team on Monday and work out what to change so that we can implement our plan in a way that the public want. (No I won’t be answering questions about what we’ve done wrong until we’ve had those discussions.)”
But actually the best bit for me in that article was Newman saying they’d done 10 years of reform in 2. Make no mistake – the Qld govt and for that matter the Federal govt are acting like Whitlam for the same reason. They no longer feel that they are the natural party of government with multiple terms ahead of them. They are frantic because they know their time is limited.
Looks a lot like the bodies have been loaded on a train and are heading to Kharkiv
[
Nazanine Moshiri @nazaninemoshiri · 1m
DPR tells Al jazeera 186 bodies ready to head to Kharkiv. But where are the remaining corpses? #mh17
]
https://twitter.com/nazaninemoshiri
William @ 409
When the Soviet Union was dissolved, the Russians believed they had an understanding with the West for NATO not to expand up to their borders. They have seen it progressing that way and are reacting. In that sense, Western ‘interference’ in Ukraine has played a large part.
Abbott on Insiders this morning.
Abbott on 60 Minutes at 8.00 pm today.
Is this the first time he’s exposed himself to questions on national TV shows twice in the one day (or week, or month, or year)?
Must be safe outside!
Well done Credlin! What a busy week it will be!
[SBS news is making me cry, so I’d like some distraction…]
Just watched it as well, people getting killed in gaza, Iraqi Christians having signs sprayed on their homes and valuables stolen (after being to to convert pay a fine or leave), bombs going off in Baghdad.
Of course the lead story was M17, A guy standing where the cockpit debris is, bodies being carried away by stretcher, and poles with white cloth to show where bodies have been found in the sunflower field.
Does not seem to fit with some other stories. 🙁
My final post tonight as I can’t resist a parting shot at TP.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/kevin-rudd-rewrites-history-with-heroic-flourishes-20140718-zuf3s.html
Another reporter on the ground with photos of the train.
[
Train wagons where the #MH17 bodies are being held. OSCE investigating. Heavy duty Berkut guarding.
http://pic.twitter.com/D9ViwWK1d0
]
https://twitter.com/maxseddon
[When the Soviet Union was dissolved, the Russians believed they had an understanding with the West for NATO not to expand up to their borders. They have seen it progressing that way and are reacting. In that sense, Western ‘interference’ in Ukraine has played a large part.]
why should Russia get to decide what happens outside of its borders?
madcyril:
This would be a positive development, yes?
Sir Mad Cyril
Saw a doco about the fighting in Russia during WWII and they had a longish section on Kharkov which took a huge battering . Not that it was unusual at the time but in Kharkov’s case the city was taken and retaken a number of times.
confessions
It’s really hard to tell. It seems like they are set to be moved to Ukraine territory, but until it happens I won’t believe it.
Then there is this.
[
max seddon @maxseddon · 21s
The guards all vanished after the OSCE monitors left. Literally nobody is guarding the #MH17 bodies. Astonishing.
]
https://twitter.com/maxseddon
SMC’s link
[Apparently an agreement has been reached between Ukranians and separatists to move bodies to Kharkiv which is in Ukranian territory.]
Kharkiv?
I assume that that means that Putin told Strelkov that no thank you very much, the Russians do not want the bodies.
It must also mean that there has been some sort of de facto understanding between the Separatists and the Ukrainian Government to allow a train to travel across an imaginary line which separates Separatist-controlled territory and Ukrainian Government-controlled territory.
madcyril:
Thanks. Very frustrating waiting for more concrete sources.
poroti
Yes, Von Manstein was involved in the German recapture of the city if memory serves me correctly. I think there were four battles of Kharkov.
@PaulSonne: Another shot of the refrigerated train. Now that the OSCE has left, not a single guard in sight. #MH17 http://t.co/tZafSWfoZo
Bemused: “When the Soviet Union was dissolved, the Russians believed they had an understanding with the West for NATO not to expand up to their borders.”
I’m sure they did. But there is just a minor little technical difficulty of democratically elected governments deciding otherwise.
‘Kharkiv’ is the Ukrainian version of ‘Kharkov’ which is the Russian version.
ShowsOn@421
By the same principle that the US didn’t want Russian missiles in Cuba.
ShowsOn
The NATO thing was part of an agreement made between the US and Russian leaders about what would happen post the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The US ambassador who was part of the talks recently wrote an excellent article about it in The Diplomat magazine. In it he said the Russians have some reason to be pissed over what NATO (US) has been doing from Clinton onwards.
There are many aspects to the MH 17 incident. The latest (from Ben Sandilands of Crikey’s ‘Plane Talking’ blog):
[The exact sums have not been publicly established, but Ukraine had tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars at stake from flights that used its air space to save time and fuel and other operating costs while flying between Asia and Europe.
The value of these sky toll gates may well be the elephant-in-the-room when it comes to the absurdity of Eurocontrol and ICAO, at the apparent behest of Ukraine, declaring that the air space above 32,000 feet over the conflict zones was safe when pro Russian separatists had a missile system capable of killing targets at 70,000 feet.]
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/07/20/mh17-ukraine-made-serious-money-from-airline-overflights/
“why should Russia get to decide what happens outside of its borders?”
For the same reason the US, Great Britain, France, Austria,Spain,Holland,Belgium,Japan,Portugal…… Can , did & do
Not that that makes it right.
“why should Russia get to decide what happens outside of its borders?”
For the same reason the US, Great Britain, France, Austria,Spain,Holland,Belgium,Japan,Portugal…… Can , did & do
Not that that makes it right.
Rossmore@430
NATO and the EU could have declined.
Bemused … I suppose just as Russia could have declined Cuba’s request for missiles. I think the comparison though isnt quite fair.
There is a real battle of ideas in E Europe and most citizens of Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, the former Yugoslavia, the former E Germany etc etc overwhelmingly prefer the western vision. Part of the attraction is the protection it offers from Russia treating them like proxy states to be fecked over at the Kremlin’s will. They have experienced rule under the Soviet empire and have vo desire to return to it. And good on them for doing so.
ABBOTTS GOVT OF FASCISTS
The 14 Defining
Characteristics Of Fascism
Free Inquiry
Spring 2003
5-11-3
Dr. Lawrence Britt has examined the fascist regimes of Hitler (Germany), Mussolini (Italy), Franco (Spain), Suharto (Indonesia) and several Latin American regimes. Britt found 14 defining characteristics common to each:
1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism – Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights – Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of “need.” The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause – The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.
4. Supremacy of the Military – Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.
5. Rampant Sexism – The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Divorce, abortion and homosexuality are suppressed and the state is represented as the ultimate guardian of the family institution.
6. Controlled Mass Media – Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.
7. Obsession with National Security – Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined – Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed
to the government’s policies or actions.
9. Corporate Power is Protected – The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.
10. Labor Power is Suppressed – Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed.
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts – Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts and letters is openly attacked.
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment – Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption – Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.
14. Fraudulent Elections – Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.
AussieAchmed
I don’t understand why those trolls would manipulate Twitter that way. I don’t think they know what they’re doing at all.
The Twitter algorithm works better to highlight a tweet that is retweeted rather than one that is continuously being tweeted by different accounts.
This goes to show that these Astroturfers have no idea how social media works. Sounds something more like what a certain news outlet would do.
Rossmore@438
Refer to poroti @ 433.
In regards to some of the discussions here about the shootdown.
I really don’t see why Ukraine would implicate itself by attempting to shoot a Russian aircraft. Wouldn’t that immediately be an act of war?
One would easily say that the separatist group would shoot upon a Ukraine aircraft as an act of terrorism or rebellion.
Of course, with a lack of any significant air presence, Ukraine isn’t on the edge wanting to shoot down a non-existent rebel aircraft either.
[poroti
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 7:36 pm | Permalink
ShowsOn
The NATO thing was part of an agreement made between the US and Russian leaders about what would happen post the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The US ambassador who was part of the talks recently wrote an excellent article about it in The Diplomat magazine. In it he said the Russians have some reason to be pissed over what NATO (US) has been doing from Clinton onwards.]
Yeah it’s so annoying for the superpowers when all the players wont play along with the whole hegemony thing.
Abbott asking for transparency and full disclosure from the Ukraine Rebels and Russia seems fair, when is he going to use the same rules for 153 Tamils?
Is Newman saying that voters are stupid for not voting for the LNP?
Also on the breaking news of MH17 in the morning after the repeal of the carbon tax, I would imagine the international media distracted but I wonder if the lesser impact of MH17 in the US would make the environmental movement there notice?
Locally, the news of the repeal of the CT has been drowned out by the breaking news of MH17.
What would the local voters think of it? Have this taken a shine off Abbott’s repeal? Or is this the distraction that Abbott needs?
This is from a legitament investigative outfit
[
President Barack Obama talks with Ambassador Samantha Power, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, following a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House, Sept. 12, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)
Regarding the shoot-down of the Malaysian jetliner on Thursday, I’m told that some CIA analysts cite U.S. satellite reconnaissance photos suggesting that the anti-aircraft missile that brought down Flight 17 was fired by Ukrainian troops from a government battery, not by ethnic Russian rebels who have been resisting the regime in Kiev since elected President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown on Feb. 22.
According to a source briefed on the tentative findings, the soldiers manning the battery appeared to be wearing Ukrainian uniforms and may have been drinking, since what looked like beer bottles were scattered around the site. But the source added that the information was still incomplete and the analysts did not rule out the possibility of rebel responsibility.]
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/07/19/airline-horror-spurs-new-rush-to-judgment/
It all seems a bit too cute, video of the BUK missing 1 rocket being spirited across the border.
Bemused 441 and Poroti 433 … the Berlin Wall fell 25 years ago. A handshake agreement reached then between the USA and the then Soviet Union is hardly a rationale for ignoring the democratic will of millions of people.
Are you suggesting the citizens of eastern Europe should have remained as some kind of buffer zone between Russia and Europe – economically that would have been disaster for them. Many made the sensible decision to try to join NATO ….the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland (1999), Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (2004), and Albania and Croatia (2009). No doubt Ukraine will be next.
Legitimate (damn you Steve Jobs)
The other curiosity was the near immediate intercepted conversation with transcript and conversation put out by the Ukrainians allegedly damning the rebels and their overlord Putin.
Remain to be convinced either way as to cause and who is at fault. A very sad shame so many innocents were killed.
@ruawake/444
One rule for us, one rule for them.
@Raaraa/445
He seems to treat all of as stupid as of late.
I heard him this arvo on TV, saying that he got rid of the mess Labor left behind or some nonsense like that.
I don’t think that’s gonna help bring his popularity back.
Rossmore@447
Given the cold war is supposed to have ended, what was the basis for ongoing suspicion and hostility between Russia and NATO?
If I had been running the strategy, I would have endeavoured to reach accommodation with Russia BEFORE accepting any new NATO members. This might even have included NATO membership or affiliation.
Maybe I am just naive. But if you treat a country like an enemy, you make it almost a certainty it will behave like one. Russia is now seeking a buffer between itself and NATO. I can’t really blame them given 20th Century history.