Seat of the week: Lilley

With the inner northern Brisbane neighbourhood of Stafford fresh in the mind after yesterday’s by-election, a visit to the federal electorate that covers its northern half and areas further to the east, held for Labor by Wayne Swan.

Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.

Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.

Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.

Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.

Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

629 comments on “Seat of the week: Lilley”

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  1. Nothing wrong with pointing something you think is unwarranted. It certainly isn’t arrogant. It’s hardly “pitching a fit” either. William is of course entitled to do as he sees fit.

  2. fess

    [Nobody forces you to either comment or read the comments here, so if the banning of a commenter upsets you that much, why not start up your own blog and invite that person to comment at your place? ]

    That’s happened before and it will probably happen again. Blogs evolve, devolve, fragment and implode. It’s all part of life’s rich tapestry.

    Getting banned from a blog is like getting chucked out of a pub.

  3. The black boxes will not tell us all that much due to the almost instant destruction.

    I along with many expect few answers from the crash site due to the cover up. Note that is not saying Russia is involved in the cover up. (There have been reports of debris being moved from original fall spot.)

  4. Blockquote>The Associated Press ‏@AP 9m
    BREAKING: Ukraine: Rebels have taken away all bodies from the plane crash site to an unknown location.

    This won’t soothe any tensions…

  5. [I do believe that’s likely this evening – and that it will, alas, be their last.]

    Any news or clues on who Fairfax may commission to conduct polls? Surely they will not vacate the polling arena?

  6. ruawake

    In saving money stakes the cheapest option for Fairfax without self selecting would be to publish Morgan.

  7. Confessions #307 and Bemused, Comrade #308

    I agree with both of you.

    And I think you agree with each other.

    Good work!

  8. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/19/mh17-changing-course-storms-pilot

    Interesting link sceptic. Thanks.

    Have already seen that “diversion” used to imply they were put there by the Ukrainian traffic control deliberately as targets which seems a bollocks conspiracy theory to me. Weather diversion is credible and getting their flight level bumped down 2000ft just means there was other traffic in the area and the controller wanted separation.

    TP banned? What i wont miss is his thematic repetitiveness. 🙂

  9. [Their core business has moved away from polling apparently.]

    I thought they were just giving away political polling not polling altogether?

  10. [ Sir Mad Cyril

    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Thats what MY relatives got for speaking up against their beliefs ….. its a ‘family’ thing ya know ….

    badcat, I think it’s safe to assume you won’t be suffering the same fate at the hands of William. Besides, it’s his blog. He can block / allow whoever the hell he wants to post on here.

    Anyway, I’ll shut up about it now. William can handle himself.
    ]

    ————————————————–

    Cyril – YOU have your viewpoint – I have alternative views

    When you SHUT DOWN viewpoints and ideas you run the risk of what happened in Nazi Germany and USSR …. and all those facist states …… that is not what I think a ‘tolerant’ Australia should be ….

    As I said TP is a PITA …..but he just has “different’ points of view …… as do MANY OTHERS ON HERE …..

    I like to listen to everyone ….and in my mind I accept or reject what they say …but he is a voice ….

    People here ONCE spoke up for me when I was getting the bird so I am just speaking up for TP and his ” stuff” and if no-one speaks up for you then :

    I think of the Martin Niemöller Quote :

    “First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out—
    because I was not a communist;
    Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
    because I was not a socialist;
    Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
    because I was not a trade unionist;
    Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
    because I was not a Jew;
    Then they came for me—
    and there was no one left to speak out for me.”

    OK ….I’m done …. I am in the middle of cooking a nice casserole

    I love cooking with wine … and sometimes I even add it to the food …..

  11. Be interested in other people’s guesses on the size of the bounce, if any, to the Coalition and Abbott out of MH17. Nielsen might not get the full force of it this week but I’d be surprised if it has no polling impact.

    Some previous examples:

    * 9/11 – 5-6 point 2PP bounce and PM netsat up by 18 in one hit. Bounce lasted 6-7 weeks during election leadup.

    * Bali – bounce worth about 4 points 2PP and PM netsat up by 18 then another 7 next week. Most of bounce gone after a month but voting intention and PM rating slightly up for months after.

    * Port Arthur – no 2PP change because already sky-high in honeymoon period, but PM netsat up 24 points. Didn’t last long.

    Natural disasters don’t seem to have much impact.

  12. [ William Bowe

    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    Get a grip, Badcat.
    ]

    ———————————————-

    Hi William 🙂 I am using Tarazans Grip …. hope it helps

  13. psyclaw@367

    Confessions #307 and Bemused, Comrade #308

    I agree with both of you.

    And I think you agree with each other.

    Good work!

    Nope. Read the posts again.

    That particular flight, and possibly others, had been diverted north of the regular route.

    Confessions was apparently oblivious and I focused on this diversion.

  14. bemused@345

    William Bowe@343

    KM, this isn’t the first time I’ve banned TP, and it may not be the last. I most certainly do not agree that he “often makes interesting contributions”, but each to their own.

    He at least has the courage to defy the PB ‘hive mind’.

    Is that really worth praising when TP usually does so with absolutely batshit insane conspiracy theories?

  15. KB

    I think there won’t be much bounce out of the MH17 crash.

    If anything I think it will protect them from the damage of the week the Senate blocking budget measures from impacting much.

    The reason for this is it has delayed media focus on the issue.

  16. Kevin Bonham@372

    Be interested in other people’s guesses on the size of the bounce, if any, to the Coalition and Abbott out of MH17. Nielsen might not get the full force of it this week but I’d be surprised if it has no polling impact.

    Some previous examples:

    * 9/11 – 5-6 point 2PP bounce and PM netsat up by 18 in one hit. Bounce lasted 6-7 weeks during election leadup.

    * Bali – bounce worth about 4 points 2PP and PM netsat up by 18 then another 7 next week. Most of bounce gone after a month but voting intention and PM rating slightly up for months after.

    * Port Arthur – no 2PP change because already sky-high in honeymoon period, but PM netsat up 24 points. Didn’t last long.

    Natural disasters don’t seem to have much impact.

    I predict very little if any bounce and it could even go against Abbott.

    The difference this time is that whereas people may have trusted Howard to manage a crisis, who would trust Abbott?

  17. Thats a shame about Nielsen. It used to be good for triangulating Newspoll.

    Morgan and Essential, not so much. The former seems to be on Benzadrine, the latter Mogadon.

  18. [Be interested in other people’s guesses on the size of the bounce, if any, to the Coalition and Abbott out of MH17.]

    They are certainly trying for one that’s for sure.

    I know it’s tangentially of interest in a geek way, but nevertheless I still find it kinda morbid to be wondering about this stuff at this point.

  19. p m z@376

    bemused@345

    William Bowe@343

    KM, this isn’t the first time I’ve banned TP, and it may not be the last. I most certainly do not agree that he “often makes interesting contributions”, but each to their own.

    He at least has the courage to defy the PB ‘hive mind’.


    Is that really worth praising when TP usually does so with absolutely batshit insane conspiracy theories?

    His biggest sin on PB, and the one that remains unforgiven, is he never joined in the Julia adulation and remained resolutely opposed to the coup against Rudd.

    If you are looking for some truly batshit insane stuff, I could suggest some other posters here and elsewhere.

  20. [The only question is whether Newscorp Australia is the propaganda wing of the LNP and their backers, or whether the LNP is the local political wing of Newscorp.]

    Its becoming clearer all the time tho.

  21. [Be interested in other people’s guesses on the size of the bounce, if any, to the Coalition and Abbott out of MH17. Nielsen might not get the full force of it this week but I’d be surprised if it has no polling impact.]

    Will be interesting to see, I think Abbott is lacking the ‘bad guy’ in the current scenario and much as he is trying really hard fit putin into the bad guy hat, I don’t think Putin evokes all the deep seated fear of ‘islamic fundamentalist terrorists’.

    Ironically Putin is probably just as dangerous in his own way, much more so if you live in the neighborhood and have a nice port he has had his eye on for sometime.

    i guess we will see it as it plays out, but it looks to me more like a natural disaster than a real and present danger to all our lives.

  22. lefty e:

    There are too many polls around at present, it’s taking the press gallery focus off the business of parliament and onto polls as the go-to explanation for framing everything about the govt of the day.

    I’m quite sanguine about there being one less political pollster around the place.

  23. Bemused Comrade

    I took Confessions to be decrying that the “why was MH17 there in the first place” argument a bit of a distraction, and not the main game since that altitude had been OKd by authorities. I agree.

    You refined her views a bit. I agree.

    I did not see your post as anti Confessions.

    I still don’t.

  24. I also doubt there will be any polling effect, although anecdotally Abbott is copping a hiding for his stage managed pollie speak.

    Howard used 9/11 and Bali as a surrogate for border protection, and a dog whistle against those of a certain religion.

    Neither of these factors are in play today.

  25. While it is possible, there is no probable reason for either the Separatists or the Ukrainian Government to deliberately destroy a neutral airliner. Nor is it probable that Putin ordered the destruction of MH17.

    There is not a skerrick of evidence that Ukrainian Government forces shot down MH17 or acted in any way to cover their tracks.

    An AN-26 was shot down, and its destruction boasted about, by the Separatists in the week before MH17 was shot down.

    Arguably, if you are engaged in a (civil) war the AN-26, which was mostly used as a military transport, is a legitimate target.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-26

    It is possible, perhaps even probable, that Putin approved the supply of missile apparatus and missiles to enable the Separatists to protect themselves from the Ukrainian air force. It is possible that the separatists captured the missiles and the necessary apparatus during the early days of confusion.

    Putin might even have the view that what he was doing was not all that different in that the US provided Afghanis with Stingers to shoot down lots of Russian aircraft in Afghanistan.

    It is possible that the launch crew came from either former Ukrainian army staff who are now Separatists or from the current Russian Army who have been tacitly permitted to ‘volunteer’ to work the missiles. Strelkov would know but he can be relied on to lie about anything and everything. He is, apparently, a citizen of the Russian Federation.

    The self-congratulatory chatter (between Ukrainian separatists) which went viral shortly after MH17 downed was about another AN-26 being shot down. This chatter was faithfully reported in the Russian MSM as a victory by the Separatists over the Ukrainian Government. This story was very rapidly ‘un-reported’ and replaced with several versions of wtte, most likely the Ukrainian Government probably shot down MH17.

    On the same day US pundits claimed that US satellites had observed the flash of the launch and the flash of the explosion on MH17 and that launch site was in Separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine. There is virtual certainty that US satellites have this capability and that they would have been keeping a very, very close eye on events in the Ukraine. As we know from previous US intelligence reporting, there is no certainty that US pundits are faitfully reporting what the satellites actually saw.

    When the MH17 cock-up was discovered (a) history was swiftly re-written in the Russian MSM and (b) the participants on the ground acted to (1) prevent a free flow of useful on-ground information and (2) may well have deliberately destroyed evidence and (3) behaved very badly with respect to the bodies and the friends and family of the victims.

    Why would they do ANY of this is they knew that it was the Ukrainian Government and not themselves who downed MH17?

    Incidentally, Abbott has been talking about ‘human dignity’ in relation to the MH17 victims, their bodies and their friends and relatives.

    I await some enterprising journalist to ask Abbott when he is going to start treating asylum seekers with human dignity instead of which as much inhuman indignity he thinks he can get away with.

    The careless, casual killing of 300 passengers is not in the same league as bastardising thousands of asylum seekers, sending them mad etc, etc, etc. It is not in same league at all.

    But human dignity is still human dignity and on this, Abbott’s cupboard is bare.

    I note that there is now some sort of discussion about the Separatists delivering the bodies to Russia.

  26. If the LNP cant get a poll bounce from the repeal of the carbon tax and the air crash, I can’t see what event other than an ALP implosion will give them a poll bounce. The LNP Budget is a gift to the ALP and they are making the most of it

  27. CTari @ 11.

    I didn’t ask about if the plane knew the missile was coming. it was someone else.

    I sure hope they didn’t.

  28. Just saw Abbott on TV being interviewed outside St Marys. As was Turnbull.

    In the background, also taking opportunity for a “rehabilitation by participating in MH17 publicity” was priest protector Mons Brian Lucas, condemned by the NSW Special Commission of Enquiry into Clergy Abuse in the Hunter.

    What compassionate men they are (today), and so say all of us!

  29. psyclaw@386

    Bemused Comrade

    I took Confessions to be decrying that the “why was MH17 there in the first place” argument a bit of a distraction, and not the main game since that altitude had been OKd by authorities. I agree.

    You refined her views a bit. I agree.

    I did not see your post as anti Confessions.

    I still don’t.

    It wasn’t ‘anti confessions’.

    But that diversion was a really critical factor as it too MH17 right over the combat zone whereas the regular route was far enough south to probably not pose a danger.

    On the day, it seems a number of aircraft were similarly diverted including a Singapore Airlines flight just behind MH17. It could have been any of those aircraft shot down.

    It is just horrifying.

  30. [ If the LNP cant get a poll bounce from the repeal of the carbon tax and the air crash, I can’t see what event other than an ALP implosion will give them a poll bounce. ]

    Agreed. But i dont think they will get much of a bounce out of this. Abbott has to be careful as it could simply show him up as impotent if he takes too strong a line on blaming Russia and Putin just goes: “Tony who??”

  31. As is usually the case it took two to tango re the delay.

    [Andrei Purgin, deputy prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, told reporters he would guarantee the safety of international crash investigators if Kiev agreed a ceasefire.

    Since the crash fighting has continued in the region between pro-Russian militants and Ukraine forces.

    And Ukraine officials have insisted they would not negotiate with “terrorists”, as they call the rebels in eastern Ukraine.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/ukraine-deal-with-rebels-will-allow-bodies-to-be-moved-from-mh17-crash-site-20140720-zv2ur.html#ixzz37zqyTKLC

  32. Gee, Jake Carlisle is playing well up front for Essendon.

    When he comes up to Sydney in a fortnight, the Swans should talk to him about a long term contract commencing 2015.

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