Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.
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| Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.
Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.
Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.
Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.
kevjohnno
When it comes to NATO it is largely a case of what the US wants it gets.The wishes of former Eastern Bloc countries for the presence of NATO only matter when they align with what the US wanted.
It does seem as if things are slowly happening to allow an international investigation of the shooting down of MH17.
Almost certainly a full scale investigation will eventually happen, despite the apparent efforts of rebels to initially obstruct observers and the disturbance to the crash scene through theft of some items.
Despite the cause being obvious, a thorough technical investigation (of the black boxes and the wreckage) can still reveal many things, e.g.
– height and bearing of the plane, possibly type of explosive from residue on debris.
Such findings could help pinpoint the source of the missiles.
I imagine that US and other satellites would have been tracking heavy weaponry in the relevant area.
Putin’s hands are now tied and he will have to wear the outcome of an investigation.
Bemused …”Russia is now seeking a buffer between itself and NATO. I can’t really blame them given 20th Century history.”
The same history that saw them form an alliance with Nazi Germany. The same history that saw Russia invade Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 50s. The same Russia that sought to suppress the Polish workers in Gdansk. The same Russia that propped up the Stasi in E Germany and so on and so on. The same Russia that now persecutes gay people and murders its opponents. They have form comrade … and are on the wrong side of history.
On NATO membership, it’s governed by Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that membership is open to any “European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area”.
Any decision to invite a country to join the Alliance is taken by the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s principal decision-making body, on the basis of consensus among all Allies. Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Montenegro and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia¹ are aspiring members.
Seems fair enough.
Abbott has failed to make it two prime ministerial interviews in a row.
This morning on Insiders, Abbott was excellent. He was strong, direct and confident, easily the best interview of his career.
On 60 minutes, the words used to answer questions were right, but his delivery was awful. Abbott kept stuttering, his timing was inconsistent and appeared nervous in front of a serious (large) audience.
The Monkey should receive a positive bounce on his popularity regardless, surely!
Moreover, Russia, as a European country could apply for membership of NATO. I suspect optimistically, that day isnt too many years off.
Peter Stefanovic @peterstefanovic 11m
Just saw the bodies of children in the morgue of the main hospital which is so full that they are piling up on the floor. Doesn’t get worse
Peter Stefanovic @peterstefanovic 1h
My translator tells me last night was the worst of his life. Constant bombing in east Gaza. Many dead incl journalist and paramedic.
Peter Stefanovic @peterstefanovic 57m
Main hospital in #Gaza is manic. Overflowing with victims. Hundreds of displaced people here with nowhere else to go. Can hear bombs rumble.
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 9m
‘Death and horror’ in Gaza as thousands flee Israeli bombardment http://trib.al/6XNpOWQ
ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 7:24 pm | Permalinkwhy should Russia get to decide what happens outside of its borders?
why should Australia get to decide what happens outside of its borders?
Rossmore@453
The alliance with Nazi Germany was after the British and French refused an alliance with the USSR.
Yes, the USSR sought to establish and maintain regimes of a similar persuasion in Eastern Europe. Just as the US and UK sought to ensure there were no communist regimes in Western Europe.
But eventually it was unsustainable and among the first to realise this were the KGB!
I am not going to defend Putin, but in part the Russia of today is a reaction to how it was treated in the West. Opportunities were lost.
Rex Douglas@458
Doesn’t matter, the Russians had nothing to do with it and none of them are Australians. 🙁
bemused
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 8:36 pm | Permalink
Rex Douglas@458
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 9m
‘Death and horror’ in Gaza as thousands flee Israeli bombardment http://trib.al/6XNpOWQ
Doesn’t matter, the Russians had nothing to do with it and none of them are Australians. 🙁
No press for Abbott, and the nearest his daughters got to Gazza was in a spelling bee
The Leader of my/our great country has told us :
… its “goodies” vs “baddies”
QED
I would have liked to see Shorten be interviewed on the MH17 crash?
He would do to Abbott what the Tigers did to the Bulldogs.
Bemused 460
“Yes, the USSR sought to establish and maintain regimes of a similar persuasion in Eastern Europe.”
Ahh the convenient airbrushing of history. Such a soothing, reasonable assertion. “Sought to establish…”
In fact, the Soviet Union systematically and successfully established a Soviet model in every E European state between the end of WW2 and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
I highly recommend Anne Applebaum’s book, The Crushing of Eastern Europe for a compelling and chilling description of how this occurred.
Stick it Centre. Saints tomorrow night, which will be at the same time I will be mixing with the hoi poloi @ the local labor NSW launch with messers Faulkner , Latham and my friend, and Left nominee for Senior VP, Michelle
[The alliance with Nazi Germany was after the British and French refused an alliance with the USSR.]
Which in turn followed Stalin murdering half his officer corps and punitively starving four million Ukrainian peasants to death (fascists even then, it seems).
Bemused 460
“I am not going to defend Putin…”
Strange thing to say considering all you’ve done for several days now is attack anyone who didn’t follow the Kremlin line.
By the way I never realised that Russia invaded Finland and Poland only because the nasty French and British wouldn’t sign an alliance with the butcher Stalin. I wonder what other historical gems you have.
outside left
The SteelDragons might be the better option for betting purposes but the Seagles are top pick for tipping competitions.
There has been plenty of outrage over what’s happening in Gaza particularly when children get killed playing on a beach but then what were they doing playing on a beach in the middle of a war zone?
Kon Karapanagiotidis @Kon__K 1h
Remember this:
43.2% of the entire population of #Gaza is 14 years & younger.
Source: CIA Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gz.html …
Melbourne
@470
They were kids.
davidwh
Playing spot the Israeli.
Bemused “But eventually it was unsustainable and among the first to realise this were the KGB!”
In fact the KGB were among the last to realise it.
They just sank back into their dochas, bided their time and now throw their weight behind Putin. Communism and fascism, same coin, different sides.
Beautiful.
The Swans and the Cats 1 & 2 on the ladder.
oooh next week should be good. Swans v Hawks. Where’s Victoria 😛
Davidwh @470
I think that is a very insensitive comment. Garza is one of the most concentrated population centres on the earth.
It is all a “war zone” as you call it.
Any child that plays has no choice but play in a war zone.
Are you saying that garza children should not play?
[@Agecommunity: New Age/Nielsen poll on federal politics, exclusive in tomorrow’s @theage. Fascinating #auspol]
[Strange thing to say considering all you’ve done for several days now is attack anyone who didn’t follow the Kremlin line.]
And accuse people of being bullies if they dared to take issue with the bullshit Deblonay’s been spinning here, despite being unable himself to offer any arguments to the refute those people, convincing or otherwise.
449
Howard at least got rid of most of the debt after a few terms in office and plea with the public that he got rid of “Labor debt”
Newman has done no such thing but instead focused on some social conservatism issues first. The most he could have done was vowing to privatise some assets to generate some income, but that was the reason why Bligh got dumped in the first place. How could he claim to get rid of “Labor debt” if he has done nought in terms of the budget?
Bemused … lost for words? That’d be a first…
David, the next Presidente of the USA will be a woman
Swamprat I was being sarcastic.
Centre:
It’s so far been an AFL tipping round from hell. Even if I followed your strategy of picking a strategic outlier, I’d never have picked Saints or the Blues! And I say that as a Carlton fan.
They were playing at the beach because it was thought it was safer than playing at home —
http://online.wsj.com/articles/palestinians-mourn-four-boys-killed-on-gaza-beach-by-israel-missiles-1405616076
I first visited Israel and Palestine way back in 1980 and I can pretty much assure you that there is nowhere for the Palestinians to hide. From their point of view their whole universe is a war zone. They are sitting ducks and that’s the way the governments of Israel and America want it to be. They are fenced in by walls and not allowed to build bomb shelters.
David, it was only because I know you so well that I suspected that of being the case. Internet irony needs to be unsubtle.
Someone earlier said that how would US satellite images identify rocket firing when they failed to find any sign of MH370 wreckage.
Unlike the depths of the ocean where flight MH370 was purported to have been lost, the US would probably be observing Ukraine as part of NATO operations due to the situation with Russia.
Not unlike the Chinese satellite images of the South China Sea when they thought they found the MH370. The Chinese were probably observing the area due to the Spratly Island disputes.
I’ve realised the whole Lannister family in ‘Game of Thrones’ would make more sense if there’d been an older brother who’d only died recently…
Does anyone know the average population size of the federal electorates?
At last – a subject I care about. How do you figure, Z?
Sorry William.
22.68 million/150 = 151,200.
Okay, I think the meaning of Zoomster’s comment has dawned on me now.
Connie
Both Carlton and St.Kilda were the home teams.
If Carlton and St.Kilda had a 60% or greater success rate versus North M and Freo respectively in the last decade, then they would’ve qualifies as the selections.
Genius 😎 I know 😈
Rossmore@465
Roosevelt and Churchill agreed with Stalin to ‘spheres of influence’ post-war.
Both sides honoured the agreement and Stalin did not lift a finger when communist movements were crushed in Greece for example or told them to accept they were in the western sphere of influence such as Italy and France.
I’m a bit slow in catching up on reading the weeks events. I saw this sickening effort:
[At a gala dinner in Sydney on Tuesday marking the half-century milestone, Abbott – who once worked as a journalist at the Australian – said the contemporary publication was “one of the world’s very best”.
And he wants to “kill” the urban myth that News Corp papers are mouthpieces for boss Rupert Murdoch.
“The Australian has borne his ideals but not his fingerprints…]
and I had the thought – ‘Maybe not on the outside, but the fingerprints of the puppet master are not on the outside of the sock puppet – if you want to find Murdoch’s fingerprints, book chris mitchell, most of the writing staff, and abbott into the proctologist.’
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/the-australian-newspaper-helped-make-john-howard-pm-says-tony-abbott
William
If there’d been an elder brother —
1. Tywin Lannister wouldn’t have worried about Jamie joining the King’s Guard. I can’t see how someone with his wealth or power would allow his only (suitable) heir do this.
2. The elder son would have been the one who played the trick on Tyrion re his ‘wife’. (Hard to work out how Tyrion and Jamie can have any kind of relationship at all after that incident…)
3. Jamie and Cersei are obviously middle children.
4. Following on from 1, really, but Tywin does seem to have left it a little late to worry about the succession to Castely Rock…
I’m toying with the idea that the elder son was from an earlier marriage, as well, as that would make the respective ages fit in better, too….
WB 492 And ur point is?
peppy7@468
I suggest you read a good history of the period such as “The Cold War and It’s Origins” by Fleming.
[22.68 million/150 = 151,200.]
Crap sorry, I mean enrolled voters, not total population.
Would that be around 95,000?