Seat of the week: Lyons

The central Tasmanian electorate of Lyons covers some of the poorest and least ethnically diverse territory in the country, and it recorded the nation’s biggest anti-Labor swing at the 2013 election.

Known prior to 1983 as Wilmot, Lyons covers what’s left over of Tasmania after the north-west coast (Braddon), north-east coast (Bass), central Hobart (Denison) and Hobart’s outskirts (Franklin) are ordered into natural communities of interest. It thus includes small towns on either side of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, along with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and rural territory in between, together with a short stretch of the northern coast between Braddon and Bass at Port Sorell. According to the 2011 census, Lyons has the lowest proportion of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, along with the second lowest proportion of people who finished high school and the sixth lowest median family income. The Liberals gained the seat in 2013 on the back of the election’s biggest swing, which converted an existing Labor margin of 11.9% into a Liberal margin of 1.2%.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Wilmot was in conservative hands from 1901 to 1929, when it was won for Labor by the man whose name it now bears. Joseph Lyons had been Tasmania’s Premier until the defeat of his minority government in 1928, and upon entering federal parliament he assumed the position of Postmaster-General in the newly elected government of Jim Scullin. However, Lyons and his followers split from Labor in 1931 after a dispute over economic policy in response to the Depression. Joining with the opposition to become the leader of the new conservative United Australia Party, Lyons became Prime Minister after a landslide win at the election held the following December, retaining the position through two further election victories until his death in 1939.

Labor briefly resumed its hold on Wilmot after the by-election that followed Lyons’ death, but Allan Guy recovered it for the United Australia Party at the general election of 1940. It next changed hands at the 1946 election when Labor’s Gil Duthie unseated Guy against the trend of a national swing to the newly formed Liberal Party. Duthie went on to hold the seat for nearly three decades, until all five Tasmanian seats went from Labor to Liberal in 1975. The 9.9% swing that delivered the seat to Max Burr in 1975 was cemented by an 8.0% swing at the next election in 1977, and the Franklin dam issue ensured the entire state remained on side with the Liberals in 1983 and 1984. The realignment when Burr retired at the 1993 election, when the loss of Burr’s personal vote combined with the statewide backlash against John Hewson’s proposed goods and services tax delivered a decisive 5.6% swing to Labor.

Labor’s member for the next two decades was Dick Adams, a former state government minister who had lost his seat in 1982. Adams survived a swing in 1996 before piling 9.3% on to his margin in 1998, enough of a buffer to survive a small swing in 2001 and a large one in 2004, as northern Tasmania reacted against Labor forestry policies which Adams had bitterly opposed. Strong successive performances in 2007 and 2010 left Adams with what appeared to be a secure buffer, but this proved illusory in the face of a swing in 2013 that reached double figures in all but a handful of the electorate’s booths, and in several cases topped 20%. The victorious Liberal candidate was Eric Hutchinson, a wool marketer with Tasmanian agribusiness company Roberts Limited, who had also run in 2010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Seat of the week: Lyons”

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  1. Palmer hates/hates… Murdoch…as some one said here today”Murdoch runs a cult”

    Hating him is a real plus for Palmer in my view

    Go Clive

  2. [Savva on Insiders said something along the lines that “Hedley” is the only journo brave or resolute or talented enough (one of these sentiment, but lauding Thomas) to go after Palmer.]

    It wasn’t Savva. It was Dennis Atkins. He said that “only the AUstralian had the resources” to run a long story like this.

  9. [Is it possible to turn the photo of Gough Keating and Faulkner into a jpg so I can save it?]

    Yep, right click on it, save as, jpeg.

  10. I can’t find the latest Insider’s episode in iView… or a video of the MP interview that they usually have on the news site. Offsiders, Landline and even Midsomer Murders episodes are up, but no Insiders. Odd.

    Bemused,

    A rather late pre-selection. I’m helping our candidate, Lesley Fielding, out here in Croydon, and have also met the candidate for Ringwood, Tony Clarke. I can’t remember if Bayswater’s found a new candidate after the last one left. Best of luck to them all in the months coming up 🙂

  11. Inspired by cobberdig I checked out 2GB .Lordy, Abbott still doing the hard ones. Miranda Devine interviewing PMBO . Just heard him say re the Senate “When the kids are throwing a tantrum the adults don’t throw a tantrum” .What a dickhead.

  16. Abbott’s comments aren’t particularly statesmanlike and are hardly likely to endear him and his cause to Clive.
    All the talk this weekend is coming from the LNP. The alleged negotiations, the toughening of their rhetoric and the desperate pleas that they have done everything possible to accommodate Palmer’s concerns are all coming from one side.

    This will not be over till Clive decides it is over.

    There is every chance that Clive might walk away from the repeal process. He’s got plenty of wiggle room.

  18. Greensborough Growler

    His comment amazed me .Just what not to say when you need to be “winning hearts and minds” of people you tried to pull a swifty on lass than a week ago.

    Perhaps it is a sign that Clive has already said NO and so Abbott has nothing to lose ?

  20. Ruawake,

    An eminently logical explanation… anyway, I’m off now I’ve caught up and located the Shorten interview 🙂

  21. Well, well, well …. Another Please Explain required from Abbott….

    “@lenoretaylor: Abbott used to say refrig. gases caused carbon tax price hikes, but now they don’t have to come down http://gu.com/p/3qqmt/tw via @guardian”

  22. poroti,

    So rar Clive has said “yes” to repealing the carbon Tax. I can’t imagine how Tony would react if he started saying no!

  23. [@lenoretaylor: Abbott used to say refrig. gases caused carbon tax price hikes, but now they don’t have to come down http://gu.com/p/3qqmt/tw via @guardian]

    That reminds me of a Qanda audience member who had a business that relied heavily on refrigeration getting stuck into JG about the carbon tax and the impost it would mean for her business operating costs.

  24. confessions
    If the MSM were worth their salt they’d go out and find these people and see what they think now. Remember all those high viz moments?

  25. [Greensborough Growler

    All the talk this weekend is coming from the LNP.]

    Their rhetoric is all they have now. Their “charm offensive” on senators has obviously failed. Their negotiating tactics have obviously failed. Perhaps they think they can talk PUP senators and other cross benchers into submission by the sheer force of their threats and insults.

    The three little pigs and the big bad wolf come to mind. Abbott the wolf threatens “I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your house down”. His porcine opponents say little but quietly devise ways to eventually dispose of him. That will be the ultimate fate of Abbott.

  28. If Abbott won’t agree to legislation to assure the return of carbon tax money to Joe Public then it behoves him to explain to us all how the $550 will be otherwise returned. He can’t have it both ways.

  29. I spoke to my garage mechanic today. He had been a BIG critic of the rise in gas prices, as they applied to air conditioner re-gassing.

    He now says that if the price of gas does not come down, it will be Julia Bloody Gillard’s fault.

    He attaches no blame whatsoever to the gas suppliers.

    “They have to make a living too,” he told me.

    In my own business, I used to purchase a brand of canned compressed “air” called Air Brush. It was about $23 a can.

    When I couldn’t source it, for love nor money, I rang the distributor, who told me it had been taken off the market, as the new price (after Carbon Tax) would now be $75 a can, too expensive for casual use. Turns out the contents were just about 100% taxable hydrocarbons.

    I changed to medical grade compressed air in a “D” sized bottle from BOC. Should have done it sooner as it turned out to be about half the on-going price of the Air Brush product per unit.

    But a “D” sized bottle,having to be lugged around, is not always convenient for quick dust offs. I look forward to Air Brush being available again at the old price (or close to it).

    ………..Crickets……….

  32. I see from the ABC News that Abbott is still trying to bully the Senate. The guy’s an idiot.

    I suppose the Murdoch dirt diggers are looking into the backgrounds of all the cross benchers. If the don’t find something they’ll make it up. But that won’t work with someone like Clive Palmer.

  33. BK:

    I’m always hopeful. The West Australian ran a series of articles recently about pensioners having their entitlements cut back in the wake of the WA budget and Barnett blaming Abbott for it all.

    With Qantas and Woolies and other companies now saying they won’t lower their prices post carbon tax repeal, I’d love to see how Abbott answers questions about how he intends to force them to reduce prices.

  35. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 7:03 pm | PERMALINK
    @lenoretaylor: Abbott used to say refrig. gases caused carbon tax price hikes, but now they don’t have to come down http://gu.com/p/3qqmt/tw via @guardian ]

    This is a good article, not only about refrigerant gases but also those businesses where Abbott claimed the carbon tax would cause massive price rises.

    [Abbott’s campaign as opposition leader also claimed that the carbon tax would add about 5% to the cost of food. Supermarkets like Woolworths are now saying that because very few prices actually went up when the tax was introduced, few would now be coming down.]

    It would be good to collect the video of Abbott making all these outlandish claims at a host of businesses and then interviewing those businesses as to whether they intend to reduce prices accordingly if the carbon tax is abolished.

    Garlo’s Pies (sold at some Coles) is one place to start.

  36. [The West Australian ran a series of articles recently about pensioners having their entitlements cut back in the wake of the WA budget and Barnett blaming Abbott for it all.]

    Barnett was 100% correct to blame Abbott. But every other State* seems to have absorbed the Federal cuts, only WA passed them on the Pensioners.

    *Qld amended their Budget within a day to reinstate discounts in full.

  37. I have been watching the Ian Thorpe interview.

    Abbott won’t like it. Thorpe saying free education and universal healthcare makes Australia great.

    Of course I agree

  38. Bushfire Bill

    In my illustrious employment history, people have tried to push me out the door on a number of occasions. In 2001 my boss and his boss called me to criticise my work, I was really annoyed and started to say “F*** you” when a light bulb went off and and I said
    “F , what do you want me to do” complete with change of tone.

    That grovel gained me $24,000 payout – enough to live on for 48 weeks according to Centrelink rules at that time.

    I discovered 3 weeks later, when I was retrenched, that all 1200 retrenchments were pressured to resign in the 3 months prior to retrenchment

  39. [Barnett was 100% correct to blame Abbott.]

    Yep he certainly was.

    [But every other State* seems to have absorbed the Federal cuts, only WA passed them on the Pensioners.]

    Those other states are facing imminent elections, plus our state treasurer is ex IPA.

  40. Just Me:

    There was a para in that ‘ultimate insiders’ article about how Chiefs of Staff wield such power but don’t have to face the accountability of being elected, or having to do press conferences to answer questions from journalists.

    I thought at the time, yeah, but our PM doesn’t have that pressure – he just walks away from press conferences when they get hard.

  42. [Bushfire Bill

    In my illustrious employment history, people have tried to push me out the door on a number of occasions.]

    It does seem to be the case with HI too. She works in an area of government that is “financially challenged”.

    They re downsizing soon, and I suspect they are trying to “Trim up”beofre the inevitable axe falls.

    However, it has come to our attention that a large group of employees in the same establishment have drummd up a grievance against the manager in question.

    It may be too late to save HI, but the schadenfreude will be worth enjoying if the sack-er becomes the sack-ee.

    HI has other irons in the fire and may be able to step daintily from one sinking ship to another that is more seaworthy. Fingers crossed.

    The imprtant thing is for HI to walk out with her head held high (not hard in a world of management dwarfs).

  43. For those that missed it the Parkinson interview with Thorpe is worth catching. Insights of being an athlete. How the media works. Depression and dealing with it. The coming out bit was not the most interesting.

  44. guytaur @ 887

    Abbott won’t like it for more reasons than that – remember he told us that he felt “threatened” or “uncomfortable” or something equally stupid by gay men.

    A friend of mine recently married his partner in Illinois. I feel ashamed that a country supposedly as advanced as Australia is still in the dark ages on this issue.

  45. So Thorpie is

    a) one of our greatest sporting heroes
    b) gay
    c) a socialist

    I hear heads exploding throughout the land trying to reconcile those facts.

  46. I also agree with your assessment of the interview. He came across as an honest intelligent human being. Doubtless he will be pilloried by the ignorant but I think he can rise above that.

  47. Ohh noooo Thorpie is gay!

    I remember a few years ago getting into an argument with a female friend of mine. She insisted he was gay, I said no he’s not, if he was, he’d have said so 😯

    Thorpie, there is absolutely nothing wrong with being gay, I like gay people…not that way 😛

    He should have watched Seinfeld (“not that there is anything wrong with that”) 😎

  48. Also, I am happy for him that he does not have to carry that burden anymore. There is a terrible price to pay for living in the spotlight, especially from so young.

    I mean, imagine not being able to just come right out and admit you are a socialist.

  50. [Cunneen’s professional excellence and experience in sex cases are undoubted, fierce and widespread. However the case managers at the DPP must have avoided her pigeonhole when briefing prosecutors where victims have experienced orgasms during non-consensual sex.

    Aspiring legal academics have written many articles on the phenomenon and the health professionals who deal with such victims daily report its veracity. There have been many cases in which the victim’s pain has been worsened by the further intrusion into their sense of wellbeing by the guilt of enjoying the act or orgasm as a bodily function.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lawyers-lack-of-sexual-knowledge-exposed-20140712-zt52c.html#ixzz37L8ZWl61

    From psyclaws link.

    What concerns me is that Cunneen appears to be ignorant of and mistaken about …”[the health professionals] who deal with such victims daily report its [orgasm in rape] veracity” and yet is/was responsible for the handling of such cases.

    Something is seriously wrong.

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